INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook: Key Strategic Challenges Maria Argiri Economic...

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY

World Energy Outlook:World Energy Outlook:Key Strategic ChallengesKey Strategic Challenges

Maria ArgiriMaria ArgiriEconomic Analysis DivisionEconomic Analysis Division

INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY

Energy Trends & Strategic ChallengesReference Scenario


World Primary Energy Demand

Oil and gas together account for more than 60% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030 in the Reference

Scenario

Coal

Oil

Gas

Other renewables Nuclear Hydro 0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mto

e

1971


World Power Generation from Non-Hydro Renewable Energy

Sources

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

1990 2002 2030

TW

h

Biomass Wind onshore Wind offshore Geothermal

Solar PV Solar thermal Tide/wave

World non-hydro renewable electricity generation increases six-fold to 2030, mainly due to wind &

biomass


Challenge 1:Security of

Supply


OECD Oil Demand Growth by Sector,

1999-2005

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

PowerGeneration

Industry Transport Other

mb/d

In the OECD, the transport sector accounted for almost all the oil demand growth


World Oil Production Shifts Away from OECD

Global oil production climbs from 82 mb/d in 2004 to 115 mb/d in 2030; OECD share falls from 25% to 12%

OECD

MENA

Other

NCO

41.2 mb/ d

50.5 mb/ d

13.5 mb/ d

30.9 mb/ d

29.0 mb/ d

20.2 mb/ d

2004 2030

2.2 mb/ d10.2 mb/ d


Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production by Source in the Reference Scenario

0

4

8

12

16

20

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mb

/d

Currently producing fields Fields awaiting development

Reserve additions and new discoveries Total production

Based on its reserves and global demand trends, Saudi oil production is projected to reach 18 mb/d in 2030


Iran’s Oil Balance in the Reference Scenario

0

2

4

6

8

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mb

/d

Net exports Domestic demand

Iran oil production reaches 6.8 mb/d in 2030, but exports increase

less rapidly due to strong growth in domestic demand


Oil Production Outlook in Iraq in the Reference Scenario

Oil production in Iraq is expected to reach around 3 mb/d in 2010 and

8 mb/d in 2030, provided that stability and security are restored

0

2

4

6

8

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mb

/d

Currently producing fields Fields awaiting development

Reserve additions and new discoveries Total production


Proven Natural Gas Reserves

Gas reserves are concentrated in FSU and MENA regions – Russia and Iran together account almost half of global

gas reserves


Share of International Gas Export Growth between 2004 and 2030

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Russia Iran Algeria Qatar

Qatar will account for almost one quarter of the increase in gasinter-regional trade between 2004 and 2030


Challenge 2:Carbon Dioxide Emissions


Global emissions grow more than 50% between now & 2030, with developing countries’ emissions overtaking OECD’s in the 2020s

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mt o

f CO

2

OECD Transition economies Developing countries


CO2 Increase, 2004-2030

OECD CO2 additions equal to only three quarters of Chinese CO2 rise, but OECD emissions per capita still two times higher in

2030

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

China OECD

million

ton

nes

NorthAmerica

Pacific

Europe

0

3

6

9

12

15

ton

nes p

er c

ap

ita

2004

2030

2004

2030


Challenge 3:Energy and

Poverty


Per Capita Primary Energy Use, 2030

Per capita energy use remains much lower in developing countries


Electricity Deprivation

In 2030, if no new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity


World Alternative Policy Scenario


Examples of Policies included in the Alternative Scenario

Power generationRenewable energy (e.g., EU renewables directive)Cleaner coal technology (e.g., China and India)

Transport sectorImprove vehicle fuel efficiency (e.g. strengthening of US CAFE standards, extension of Chinese standards)Increased sales of alternative fuel vehicles and fuels (e.g., biofuels in Europe, Brazil)

Residential and commercial sectorsBuilding codes (e.g., US) Efficiency standards and labelling for appliances (e.g., India)


Oil/Gas Demand in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios

Oil & gas demand in the Alternative Scenario are both 10% lower in 2030 due to significant energy savings and a shift in

the energy mix

2004 2030 Reference Scenario 2030 Alternative Scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Oil Gas

mb/

d

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

bcm

12.1 mb/d500 bcm


Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Policy

Scenarios

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

mill

ion

to

nn

es

of

CO

2

Coal Oil Gas Alternative Policy Scenario Reference Scenario

In 2030, CO2 emissions are 16% lower than in the Reference Scenario, but are still more than 50% higher than 1990


Share of Non-Hydro Renewables in Electricity Generation, 2030

New policies would boost the share of non-hydro-renewables in global energy mix

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Transition economies

Africa

Middle East

South Asia

China

Latin America

East Asia

OECD Pacific

OECD North America

European Union

Alternative Scenario RSReference Scenario

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

Transition economies

Africa

Middle East

South Asia

China

Latin America

East Asia

OECD Pacific

OECD North America

European Union

Alternative Scenario RSReference Scenario


Summary & Conclusions

Projected market trends raise serious concerns

Increased risk for energy security Rising environmental concerns Persistent energy poverty

More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in energy demand and emission significantly

Renewables can significantly contribute toward meeting these challenges

Urgent and decisive government action needed


WEO 2006: Preliminary plan

World Alternative Policy Scenario a “tool for change” - asked by G-8 Deepening and broadening the analysis for developing

countries

Impact of high energy prices Impact of high oil, gas and electricity prices on energy

demand and macro economy Focus on developing Asia and Africa

Energy and Development Focus on unsustainable use of biomass

Country in focus: Brazil (ethanol, bagasse in CHP)

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