Interesting Produce Trends

Interesting Trends In The US, Per Capita Supply Of Fruits And Vegetables

Based on USDA-ERS Data Steve Savage Savage & Associates Applied Mythology Blog

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Savage & Associates

Background Data Source The Economic Research Service of the USDA has been tracking farm level supply of many food commodities for 40-50 years and makes this data available to the public (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/FoodAvailSpreadsheets.ht m)

Data Limitations (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FoodConsumption/FoodAvailDoc.htm) This data set is actually at the Grower/Shipper level for domestic, US production and at the importer level The data does not reflect the actual per capita availability of products for consumer consumption because it does not account for shrink (decay, damage, ) in the distribution change, or for waste that occurs at the consumer level. That is estimated in another USDA-ERS data set (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Publications/EIB44/EIB44_ReportSummary.pdf)3

Savage & Associates The data for 2010 was available in some cases, but most of this analysis is through 2009

Total Fruit and Vegetable Supply Trends (Fresh and Processed) At a high level, the supply data would seem to suggest a troubling reversal of produce consumption progress in the US since the late 1990s The underlying situation is, not surprisingly, much more complexUS Fruit and Vegetable Consumption Trends450 425 400 Pounds/Person/Year 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Vegetables

Fruit

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Fresh vs Processed Vegetables A declining supply of canned and frozen vegetables accounts for much of the recent, negative trend; however, the supply of fresh vegetable has also declined in the last few years after two decades of gainsUS Vegetable Consumption Trends200

FreshPounds/Person/Year 150

Canned100

50

FrozenDried Potato Chips

5

0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Savage & Associates

Fresh vs Processed Fruit Most of the decline in total fruit supply has been for juice with slight declines for canned and dried fruit Fresh fruit supply has been essentially flat since the mid 1990s and there has been a small amount of growth in the supply of frozen fruitUS Fruit Consumption Trends140 120 Pounds/Person/Year 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970

Fresh Juice

Canned Dried1980

Frozen Other 19902000 2010

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Trends for Major Juice Categories Orange juice supply has dropped by ~15 lbs/person since a peak in the 1990s Apple juice supply has been increasing since 1970, much of this coming from outside of the USJuice Consumption Trends 60

50Orange Grapefruit Lemon Lime Apple Grape Pineapple Cranberry Prune

Pounds/Person/Year

40

30

20

10

7

0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Savage & Associates

Sourcing of the US Fresh Vegetable Supply The domestic portion of the per capita US fresh vegetable supply has been flat since the early 1990s and has declined on that basis in recent years The supply of imported vegetables has been increasing slowly since 1960 and accounted for most overall supply increase for many yearsSource Trends for US Vegetable Consumption

8

200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960

Pounds per Person per Year

Domestic Imports Total

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010 Savage & Associates

Sourcing of the US Fresh Fruit Supply The domestic portion of the US, per capita, fresh fruit supply has been declining slowly since ~1990 and now represents ~50% of the total The supply of imported fruit has been increasing steadily since at least 1970 and has prevented the total from declining for two decadesSource Trends for US Fruit ConsumptionPounds per Person per Year 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 Domestic Imports Total

9

1980

1990

2000

2010Savage & Associates

Trends for Major, Fresh, Imported Vegetable Crops Imports of nine vegetables have represented a significant and growing proportion of the supply of those particular crops

90 80 Percent of Total US Supply 70 60 50 40 30

Vegetable Crops With A High and Increasing Proportion of Imports All Fr. VegArtichokes Asparagus Brussels Cucumbers Eggplant Garlic

20 10 0 1990 Peppers Squash 1995 2000 2005 2010 Tomatoes

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Trends for Minor, Fresh, Imported Vegetable Crops Six vegetable crops that are still mainly produced in the US have seen modest import growth over the long-termVegetable Crops With A Small but Increasing Proportion of Imports20 18 Percent of Total US Supply 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 211

All Fr. Veg Broccoli Carrots Head Lettuce Mushrooms Romaine Sweet Corn

01990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Savage & Associates

Trends for Fresh, Imported Fruit Crops Beyond crops like bananas and mangoes that are essentially all imported, there are eleven crops for which the percent of imported product has been rising over timeFruit Crops With An Increasing Proportion of Imports100 90 Percent of Total US Supply 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1012

All Fr. Fruit Avocados Cantaloupe Grapefruit Grapes Kiwifruit Lemons Limes Papayas Pineapple Strawberries Tangerines1995 2000 2005 2010

01990

Savage & Associates

US Per Capita Fresh Vegetable SupplyCrop Carrots Head Lettuce Potatoes Escarole Cabbage Celery Cauliflower Cucumbers Mushrooms Garlic Sweet Corn Tomatoes Squash Broccoli Onions Radishes Brussels Sprouts Snap Beans Peppers Artichokes Sweet Potatoes Eggplant Romaine Asparagus Okra Spinach 13 Total lbs/person 2007-9 1997-9 7.8 11.0 17.4 23.7 37.7 47.3 0.2 0.3 7.8 8.3 6.2 6.5 1.6 1.7 6.5 6.5 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.6 9.1 8.9 19.0 18.3 4.2 4.1 5.9 5.4 20.6 18.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.9 1.6 9.4 7.6 1.5 1.2 5.1 3.9 0.8 0.6 11.0 6.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 1.8 1.0 183.3 190.1 Change lbs/person Percent -3.1 -40.0 -6.3 -36.0 -9.6 -25.6 0.0 -17.2 -0.6 -7.3 -0.3 -5.2 -0.1 -4.6 -0.1 -1.2 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.2 2.5 0.7 3.8 0.2 4.3 0.5 9.0 2.0 9.7 0.1 11.9 0.0 13.8 0.3 15.9 1.8 19.4 0.4 23.9 1.2 24.1 0.3 33.0 4.0 36.9 0.5 37.2 0.2 38.9 0.7 42.1 -6.9 -3.6

Fresh Vegetables Comparing the window 2007-9 with the window 1997-9, there has been a 3.6% drop in total per capita supply Eight crops showed declining supply, most notably potatoes, head lettuce, carrots, and cabbage 18 crops saw increasing supply, 11 with more than a 10% increase in that decadeSavage & Associates

US Per Capita Fresh Fruit SupplyCrop Grapefruit Oranges Honeydew Cantaloupe Apples Bananas Kiwifruit Peaches Pears Lemons Grapes Apricots Tangerines Mangoes Strawberries Pineapple Limes Papayas Avocados Cherries Blueberries Raspberries Total14

Fresh Fruit Comparing the window 2007-9 with the window 1997-9, there has been a 3.1% drop in total per capita fresh fruit supply Nine crops saw declining supply (greatest for grape fruit, oranges, apples bananas and cantaloupes) 13 crops saw increasing supply, 10 with more than a 20% increase in that decadeSavage & Associates

lbs/person 2007-9 1997-9 2.9 6.0 8.8 12.3 1.7 2.3 9.3 10.8 16.2 18.5 25.2 28.6 0.5 0.5 4.7 5.2 3.1 3.4 2.6 2.6 8.2 7.6 0.1 0.1 2.9 2.3 2.1 1.5 6.6 4.2 5.1 2.7 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.5 3.8 1.7 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 109.8 113.3

Change lbs/person Percent -3.0 -50.8 -3.5 -28.3 -0.6 -26.6 -1.6 -14.7 -2.3 -12.3 -3.4 -11.8 -0.1 -10.4 -0.5 -9.9 -0.3 -9.3 0.0 0.9 0.5 6.9 0.0 8.6 0.6 25.8 0.6 36.8 2.4 58.0 2.4 86.9 1.1 88.1 0.6 109.0 2.1 120.7 0.7 123.5 0.5 153.9 0.3 326.9 -3.5 -3.1

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: Grapefruit Grapefruit consumption and supply have been in long-term decline, some of which was shifting towards exports, but those have also declinedFresh Grapefruit Consumption Trend10 9 8 Pound/Person/Year 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 01970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total

Domestic Exports

Imports

15

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -3 lbs/person, 51% declineSavage & Associates

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: OrangesFresh Orange Consumption Trend

Fresh orange consumption and supply have been in long-term decline This crop still has a significant export segment Imports are minor, but increasing

18 16 14 Pound/Person/Year 12 10 8

Total

Exports6 4 2 0 1970

Domestic

Imports1980 1990 2000 2010

16

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -3.5lbs/person, 28% declineSavage & Associates

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: CantaloupeFresh Cantaloupe Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

After a long period of overall growth, the cantaloupe supply has declined significantly since the late 1990s Domestic supply, and to a lesser extent, imported supply, are declining

12

10

8

Total Domestic

6

4

Imports2

Exports01970 1980 1990 2000 2010

17

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -1.6 lbs/person, 14.7% declineSavage & Associates

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: Honeydews Honeydew supply has been dropping since the late 1990s because of falling domestic supply and flat importsFresh Honeydew Consumption Trend3.0

2.5

Pound/Person/Year

Total2.0

1.5

Domestic1.0

Imports0.5

Exports0.01970 1980 1990 2000 2010

18

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -0.6 lbs/person, 27% declineSavage & Associates

Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: Peaches Peach supplies have been falling slowly since 1980 Imports remain a small factor for this cropPound/Person/Year

Fresh Peach Consumption Trend8 7

Total6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970

Domestic

Exports Imports1980 1990 2000 2010

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Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: ApplesFresh Apple Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

Total fresh apple supply has decreased slightly on a per capita basis since the Alar scare of 1989

25

20

Total Domestic

15

10

Exports5

Imports01970 1980 1990 2000 2010

20


Examples of Declining Fresh Fruit Supply: BananasFresh Banana Consumption Trend

Banana supply (nearly 100% imported) peaked in 1999 and has declined ~1/6 since themPound/Person/Year

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 01970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total

Imports

-5

21


Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: TangerinesFresh Tangerine Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

Tangerine supply and consumption have been growing rapidly since 1990

3.5 3.0 2.5

Total2.0

Domestic1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1970

Imports Exports1980 1990 2000 2010

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Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.6 lbs/person, 26% increaseSavage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Limes Lime supply and consumption has been growing rapidly since 1980Pound/Person/Year

Fresh Lime Consumption Trend3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.01970 1980 1990

Total

Imports Domestic Exports2000 2010

-0.5

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Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Avocados Imports are driving growth in the Avocado supply with domestic sources flat to decliningPound/Person/Year

Fresh Avocado Consumption Trend4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.01970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total

Domestic

Imports

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Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Strawberries Strawberry supply has been increasing since 1970 with an accelerated rate of growth since 2000 Strawberries remain a primarily domestic crop although there has been a small increase in importsFresh Strawberry Consumption Trend8 7 6 Pound/Person/Year

Total5 4

Domestic3 2 1 0 1970

Exports Imports1980 1990 2000 2010

25


Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: BlueberriesFresh Blueberry Consumption Trend

Blueberries have risen 5 fold from a tiny fresh segment in the 1980s to nearly 1 lb/person by 2009 The growth in supply is from both domestic and import sources

1.0 0.9 0.8 Pound/Person/Year 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.01970 1980 1990

Total

Domestic Imports Exports2000 2010

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.5 lbs/person, 154% increase26

Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: RaspberriesFresh Raspberry Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

Fresh raspberries have recently emerged as a minor but growing fruit option for US consumers Growth of both domestic and import sources have broadened the window of availability

0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1970

Total

Domestic

Imports1980 1990 2000 2010

27


Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Pineapples There has been a dramatic increase in the supply and usage of fresh pineapples since the mid 1990s when Golden Pineapple varieties began to be successfully shipped Between 1990 and 2009 the supply has gone from 50% to 100% importsFresh Pineapple Consumption Trend6

5

4 Pound/Person/Year

Total3

Imports2

1

Domestic Exports

0 1970 -1

1980

1990

2000

2010

28


Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Papayas There has been a dramatic increase in the supply and usage of fresh papayas since 1990 A small domestic production persists, but all of the growth has been through importsFresh Papaya Consumption Trend1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6

Pound/Person/Year

Total

Imports0.4 0.2

Exports0.0 1970 1980 1990

Domestic2000 2010

29


Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: Grapes Domestic table grape supplies have been declining slowly: ~20% since 1990, but imports have increased leading to some overall growth, perhaps until recent years There is a slow shift underway towards imported grapes The export of table grapes is significantFresh Table Grape Consumption Trend10 9 8 Pound/Person/Year 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 01970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total Domestic Imports

Exports

30


Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: CherriesFresh Cherry Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

Import/Export data was not available from the same USDA-ERS source, but fresh cherry supply has been increasing dramatically since 1995

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1970

Total

1980

1990

2000

2010

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.7 lbs/person, 124% increase31

Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Fruit Supply: MangoesFresh Mango Consumption Trend

Pound/Person/Year

Mango supply, essentially all imported, has increased dramatically since 1980

2.5

2.0

Total1.5

1.0

0.5

Imports Exports

0.0 1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

32


Examples of Decreasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Carrots Carrot consumption more than doubled in the 1990s, but has since declined significantly This remains a predominantly domestic cropUS Carrot Consumption Trend16 14 12 10 8

Pounds /Person/Year

Total

Domestic6 4 2 01960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Imports Exports

33


Examples of Decreasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Cabbage The cabbage supply has declined slowly since the mid 1990s There is a very limited imported supplyUS Cabbage Consumption Trend12

10 Pounds /Person/Year

Total

8

Domestic6

4

2

Exports01960 1970 1980 1990

Imports2000 2010

34


Examples of Decreasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: US Head Lettuce Consumption Trend Head Lettuce30

After reaching a peak in 1990, the head lettuce supply has declined significantly This has been mainly a replacement phenomenon with other lettuce types


Total Domestic

20

15

10

5

0Lettuce30 25 Pounds/P erson/Year 20 15 10 5 Head lettuce Romaine & leaf

Exports Imports1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1960

35

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -6.3 lbs/person, 36% decline2010

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Savage & Associates

Examples of Decreasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: PotatoesUS Potato Consumption Trend90 80

Pounds /Person/Year

Fresh potato supply is now less than of what it was in 1960 but still almost exclusively a domestic crops Both fresh and processed potato supplies have been declining

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 01960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total Domestic Exports

Imports

Potatoes100 90 Pounds/Person/Year 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Fresh Processing

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 -9.6 lbs/person, 26% decline

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Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: ArtichokesUS Artichoke Consumption Trend

Pounds /Person/Year

Artichoke supply has been increasing steadily since 1980 (nearly 4X) The domestic supply has been declining very slowly, but imports have risen rapidly since 1980

1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.01960 1970

Total

Imports

Domestic

Exports1980 1990 2000 2010

37


Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Asparagus Asparagus is an increasingly popular vegetable for consumers as it has become available as a fresh option for most of the year The domestic supply has declined since the mid eighties, and imports have increased dramaticallyUS Asparagus Consumption Trend1.4 1.2 Pounds /Person/Year 1.0 0.8 0.6

Total

Imports

Domestic0.4 0.2

Exports0.01960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

38


Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: BroccoliUS Broccoli Consumption Trend7

Broccoli supply grew rapidly from 1970 and peaked in 2000. It dropped, and then has recovered, particularly in recent years A small but growing import segment has also appeared

6 Pounds /Person/Year 5 4 3 2 1

Total

Domestic

Exports0 1960

Imports1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

39


Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: EggplantUS Eggplant Consumption Trend

Pounds /Person/Year

Eggplants are a small part of the US fresh produce supply, but have been growing rapidly on a percentage basis, particularly since 1990 Growth is occurring in both the domestic and imported supply

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.01960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Total

Domestic Imports Exports

40

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.3lbs/person, 33% increaseSavage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Okra The US fresh Okra supply, though small, has been increasing at a significant rate and shifting rapidly to an import marketUS Okra Consumption Trend0.50 0.45 0.40 Pounds /Person/Year 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1980

Total

Imports Domestic Exports1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

41

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.2lbs/person, 39% increaseSavage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: US Pepper Consumption Trend PeppersPounds /Person/Year

Pepper supply has been rising rapidly since ~1980 though most of the growth since 1990 has been from imports This include both chile and bell types

10

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Total

Domestic

Imports Exports1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Peppers10 9 Pounds/Person/Year 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Chile peppers, all Bell peppers, all

1960

42


Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Romaine Lettuce Since it began to be tracked in the mid-80s, romaine lettuce has been a rapidly growing segment with some possible slow-down in the last few yearsUS Romaine Lettuce Consumption Trend14 12

TotalPounds /Person/Year 10

Domestic8 6 4 2 01985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Exports

Imports

43

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +4 lbs/person, 37% increaseSavage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: SpinachUS Spinach Consumption Trend

Spinach rose from a small crop in 1990 to more than 2 lbs/person/year The E. coli event in 2005 seems to have only temporarily set back the crop Drivers are flavor, This crop is essentially all produced domestically

2.5

2.0 Pounds /Person/Year

1.5

Total

1.0

Domestic0.5

Imports0.01960 1970 1980 1990

Exports

2000

2010

44


Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: TomatoesUS Tomato Consumption Trend25

Though the total supply appears to be leveling, fresh tomatoes still increased by a significant number of pounds since 1997-9 Recent gains have been mainly as imports Canned tomato products have held steady in the US supply90 80 Pounds/Person/Year 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1975 Fresh


Total15

10

Domestic

5

Imports Exports1980 1990 2000 2010

01970

Tomatoes

Change from 1997-9 to 2007-9 +0.7 lbs/person, 3.8% increase

Canning

45

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

2010

Savage & Associates

Examples of Increasing Fresh Vegetable Supply: Sweet PotatoUS Sweet Potato Consumption Trend

Pounds /Person/Year

After decades of slow decline, sweet potato supply/consumption has been rising since the late 1990s

7 6 5 4

Total Domestic

3 2 1 01965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Imports

Exports

46


Interesting Produce Trends

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