INTELLIGENCE, IO AND OPEN SOURCE:WHERE WE NEED TO GO

PRESENTED 17 JANUARY 2006 BY CAROLYN STEWART

COL, UNITED STATES ARMY, RETIRED

Stewartconsult_1@msn.com

IO AND OPEN SOURCE –NEW OR JUST NEW NAMES?

• HEARD OF PYSOP AND DECEPTION ALL ALONG; IO BECAME A MULTI-SERVICE HIGHLIGHT SOMEWHERE AROUND 1993’ISH

• MOS’S/CAREER FIELDS CREATED, BUT NO MATCHING DOCTRINE OR ADEQUATE EDUCATION

• BOSNIA 1998-1999 AND ALLIED FORCE PROVIDE SEVERAL EXAMPLES SHOWING WE HAD A LONG WAY TO GO

OIF PLANNING AND EXECUTION

• WHAT WE TOLD THE IRAQI MILITARY TO DO, WHAT EXPECTATIONS THEY HAD– DID WE FOLLOW THROUGH?– DID WE HAVE THE IMMEDIATE 24/7 EXPERTISE WE

NEEDED?– WHEN IT WORKED, WERE WE READY TO EXPLOIT THAT?

• HOW ABOUT THE “REGIME” – DO WE THINK THEY IGNORED THE PSYOPS– THEIR INTERNAL IO WAS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE– THEY COUNTERED AND TRIED TO KEEP THE INITIATIVE– GREW THE SEEDS OF THE INSURGENCY

OIF INTEL AND IO –SYNCHRONIZED OR NOT?

• MAO TELLS US THAT WISHFUL THINKING IS A DOWNFALL OF COMMANDERS– BAGHDAD ATMOSPHERICS WERE AVAILABLE OPEN SOURCE

BUT NOT CAPTURED IN INTEL AND IO

• WHEN SADDAM SAID “YOU WILL FIND NO WMD IF YOU INVADE IRAQ”, WHY DIDN’T ANYONE REALLY EXAMINE THAT?– INTEL LET US DOWN – BUT IT WAS GLOBAL, NOT JUST U.S.– A LOT ABOUT WMD BUT LITTLE WRITTEN IN THE COMMUNITY

ABOUT IZ INVOLVEMENT IN TERRORISM

INTEL AND IO MISSED THE SEEDS PLANTED BY THE REGIME AND DIDN’T PLAN FOR INSURGENCY OR LARGE OPPOSITION; HOW DID THE MAJORITY OF THE COMMUNITY MISS THE SUNNI BAATHIST ISSUE OR NOT CAPTURE IT STRONGLY ENOUGH?

INSURGENTS AND TERRORISTS

• USE “IO” AND “STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS” INNATELY AND DELIBERATELY

• WE WORK AT IT, BUT MANY TIMES AS AN AFTERTHOUGHT– REACTIVE VERSUS PROACTIVE

– INFLEXIBLE VERSUS AGILE

– POLICY ISSUES?

TERRORISTS AND INSURGENTS ARE DOING BETTER – IS IT BECAUSE THEY UNDERSTAND OUR CULTURE AND THEIR OWN, WHILE WE HAVE INSUFFICIENT AND SUPERFICIAL KNOWLEDGE?

ARE WE SPENDING THE TAXPAYERS DOLLARS WISELY AND FIGHTING TO WIN?

• WE ARE USING AN ARCHAIC BUREAUCRATIC STRUCTURE NOT SUITED TO THE WAR– WHEN THE PROBLEM SET GROWS, WE GROW THE HQS’

AND HIGH LEVEL STAFFS – LOTS OF PEOPLE IN SEATS– THE ENEMY USES A NETWORK WHILE WE USE LINEAR

HQS’ AND STAFFS; MILITARY HEAVY – WE RELY ON TECHNICAL COLLECTION WITHOUT FUSING

AND SYNTHESIZING ALL-SOURCE; WE SAY WE HAVE ALL-SOURCE BUT WE DO NOT

– HUMINT IS A BIG PROBLEM– WE HAVE NOT INTERNATIONALIZED, AND COHERENT

USE OF INTERAGENCY IS THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE– A LOT OF HAND-WAVE GENERALIZATIONS BUT LONG

TERM AND RAPID ANALYSIS OF DETAILS IS SCARCE

ANALYSIS AS THE CENTERPIECE – NOT YET,SINCE TOO MANY WISH FOR A TECHNOLOGY AND

HEAVIER STAFF BASED SOLUTION

• DOD/MILITARY ANALYSTS ARE GOOD PEOPLE; THEY ARE NOT ORGANIZED, TRAINED OR EXPERIENCED TO HANDLE THE PROBLEM SET

• SELECTION, TRAINING, REWARDS AND CAREER PATHS DO NOT TRACK WITH WHAT IS NEEDED AND WHO WE NEED, AND WHERE WE NEED THEM

• WE INSIST ON BUTTS IN SEATS RATHER THAN CREATING AN ON-CALL NETWORK – INDUSTRY CAN SUPPLY THE NETWORK

• THE TOOLS SHOULD SERVE THE ANALYSTS AND A SYSTEM OF ANALYSIS; THE TOOLS ALONE WILL NOT SUPPLY THE ANSWERS

• SPECULATION, OPINION AND PARROTING SUBSTITUTE FOR DETAILED ANALYSIS, SYNTHESIS AND FUSION OVER TIME

• THE CURRENT SYSTEM CANNOT RESPOND IN A TIMELY MANNER IN THE CURRENT WAR

THE WAR IS TOUGH; THE SOLUTION TO SYNCHRONIZING INTEL, IO AND OPERATIONS IS NOT DIFFICULT BUT REQUIRES HUGE

CHANGE• REQUIRES A CULTURAL SHIFT IN DOD AND ALL SERVICES

– HAVE TO BREAK RICE BOWLS– IT IS ABOUT AMERICA, AMERICAN LIVES, AND WINNING – NOT ABOUT SERVICE

BUDGETS AND EGOS– SOMEONE NEEDS TO TAKE THE LEAD, BUT ALL AGENCIES MUST BE EQUAL

PARTNERS; RESOURCES NEED TO STOP GOING TO MORE BUREAUCRACY

• INTERNATIONAL AND INTERAGENCY ARE A MUST – AND WE ALL NEED TO FORGET ABOUT LINE AND BLOCK CHARTS AND WHO IS IN CHARGE – CREATE A NETWORK WITH THE RIGHT EXPERTISE

• CREATE CORE ANALYST GROUPS AND SUPPORT THEM WITH NETWORKS OR EXPERTS CREATED FOR SPECIFIC PROBLEM SETS

• THIS IS NOT A COMPETITION IN INDUSTRY – MANY SHOULD PARTICIPATE– USE THOSE WITH THE TOOLS AND EXPERTS– STOP FILLING BIG COMPANY POCKETS WHEN ALL THEY DO IS PUT BUTTS IN

SEATS; PUT THE RIGHT RESOURCES AGAINST THE PROBLEM SET

• FOR AN ACTIONABLE SOLUTION, DOD AGENCIES SHOULD SEE BG MIKE HALL (RET) – HE HAS AN ENTIRE CONCEPT DOCUMENTED AND IT IS BEING TESTED

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