Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

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Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 www.telesoftvc.com

Transcript of Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

Page 1: Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

Intel Capital CEO Summit

Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer

TeleSoft Partners

August 1, 2001

www.telesoftvc.com

Page 2: Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

Page 2

AGENDA

Page

I. Next-Gen Communications Opportunities 2

II. Supply of Venture Capital 3

III. Private Market Pricing Dynamics 4

IV. Public Market Pricing Dynamics 5

V. Macro Trends & Industry Structure 6

VI. Exits – Acquisitions vs. IPO’s 7

VII. Optical Value Chain – The Next Frontier 8

Page 3: Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

Page 3

TELESOFT KEY INVESTMENT SEGMENTS

I. Next-Gen Communications Opportunities

Optical layer

ROUTING &SWITCHING

SERVER & STORAGE

ARCHITECTURES

TRANSMISSION & OPTO-ELECTRONICS

BROADBANDWIRELESS

INTEGRATEDACCESS

MIDDLEWARE & SERVICES

• Core• Edge• QoS

• QoS• SAN & NAS

• DWDM

• NMS & OSS • “Black hole”

• CPE• CTE• NTE

NETWORK APPLICATIONS

• New s/w category• Internet

HistoricalVC Focus

• p-t-p• p-t-m-p

SEMICONDUCTORs,COMPONENTS,TOOLs, OTHER

NEXT GENERATIONNETWORKS

• Qwest, Level 3, Hermes

• LMDS, MMDS, PCS

• CLECs, CAPs

ROUTING &SWITCHING

SERVER & STORAGE

ARCHITECTURES

TRANSMISSION & OPTO-ELECTRONICS

BROADBANDWIRELESS

INTEGRATEDACCESS

MIDDLEWARE & SERVICES

• Core• Edge• QoS

• QoS• SAN & NAS

• DWDM

• NMS & OSS • “Black hole”

• CPE• CTE• NTE

NETWORK APPLICATIONS

• New s/w category• Internet

HistoricalVC Focus

• p-t-p• p-t-m-p

SEMICONDUCTORs,COMPONENTS,TOOLs, OTHER

NEXT GENERATIONNETWORKS

• Qwest, Level 3, Hermes

• LMDS, MMDS, PCS

• CLECs, CAPs

Page 4: Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

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SUPPLY OF VENTURE CAPITAL

II. Supply of Venture Capital

Source: Venture One

Total $ Invested in VC-based Companies

$ 0

$ 5,000

$ 10,000

$ 15,000

$ 20,000

$ 25,000

$ 30,000

Q1'98

Q2'98

Q3'98

Q4'98

Q1'99

Q2'99

Q3'99

Q4'99

Q1'00

Q2'00

Q3'00

Q4'00

Q1'01

($m

m)

Non-Internet

Internet

Total # of Rounds in VC-Funded Companies

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Q1'98

Q2'98

Q3'98

Q4'98

Q1'99

Q2'99

Q3'99

Q4'99

Q1'00

Q2'00

Q3'00

Q4'00

Q1'01

Non-Internet

Internet

Total $ Raised by VC Funds

$ 0

$ 5,000

$ 10,000

$ 15,000

$ 20,000

$ 25,000

Q1'98

Q2'98

Q3'98

Q4'98

Q1'99

Q2'99

Q3'99

Q4'99

Q1'00

Q2'00

Q3'00

Q4'00

($m

m)

Page 5: Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

Page 5

PRE ‘98 ‘98-’99 ‘99-’00Stage

}M

E

}ProductDevelopment

MarketingDevelopment

L

$100MM

<$20MM - $25MM

4-5x9 Months

2-3x1-2 Years

$200MM - $300MM

<$25MM - $35MM

$200MM - $300MM

5-10x6 Months

2-3x1-2 Years

$400MM - $500M

$40MM - $60MM

<$10MM - $20MM

2-3x1-2 Years

2-3x1-2 Years

$100MM

TRENDS IN PRICING

III. Private Market Pricing Dynamics

Page 6: Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

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•LBO’s•Buyout Firms

Morgan Stanley Study (From 1/1/80 – 3/31/96)

• 801 Technology IPO’s

• Average IPO was $147MM

• Largest IPO was MSFT at $300MM

$147MM

Public Market$$$

Private VC Market

$$$

Early Middle Late

$100MM

• Dot.com IPO’s > $1BN

$1BN

PRICING EFFECTS

IV. Public Market Pricing Dynamics

= $50MM•TCV and ICP•“Crossover Funds”1

= $950MM2

Page 7: Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

Page 7V. Macro Trends & Industry Structure

Personal Computing

Fortune 100 Businesses

Fortune 1000 Businesses

Every Business

Millions of Households

Billions of Consumers

Communications

200 PTT’s

500 – 1,000 Wireless + LD + Local

5,000 Carriers

10,000 Carriers (B/C/D – LEC’s)

Customer Industry Structure

Supplier Industry Structure

Retrenching

Applications

Microprocessors

Databases

Enterprise Applications

Full-Service

LucentCiscoNortel

AlcatelEricssonSiemens

NEC

CUSTOMER AND SUPPLIER INDUSTRY STRUCTURES

Point Players

ADCCienaMotorolaTellabs

Nokia

HitachiToshiba

North America

Europe

Japan

1998-99Over Expansion

2000-01

IBM

OperatingSystems

SAP, Oracle

Oracle

Microsoft, Lotus

Microsoft

Intel

Page 8: Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

Page 8

EXITS – ACQUISITIONS vs. IPO’s

VI. Exits – Acquisitions vs. IPO’s

Relative Stock Price Performance of Acquiror Post-Acquisition

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

1 41 81 121 161 201 241 281 321 361 401 441 481

Days After Acquisition

Rel

ativ

e S

tock

Pric

e

NT / Promatory (3/23/00)

DELL / ConvergeNet (9/8/99)

CSCO / Cerent (8/26/99)

NT =12% of price

DELL =58% of price

CSCO =55% of price

Relative Stock Price Performance Post-IPO

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

150.0%

200.0%

250.0%

300.0%

350.0%

1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241

Days Since IPO

Re

lativ

e S

tock

Pri

ce

C 1

C 2

C 3

C 3 =5% of IPO price

C 2 =9% of IPO price

C 1 =4% of IPO price

Page 9: Intel Capital CEO Summit Arjun Gupta, CEO and Chief Believer TeleSoft Partners August 1, 2001 .

Page 9

TELESOFT’S OPTICAL PORTFOLIO

Process & Materials Components Modules & Sub-systems Systems Carriers

AmberWave VersatileLynx-Photonic

CatamaranLara NetworksModeTekNovalux

CalientWINOnFiber

Kymata NP Photonic

VII. Optical Value Chain – The Next Frontier