Integrated Decision Making Mike Allen. COMPLETE THE EXERCISE 2.
-
Upload
emma-briggs -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of Integrated Decision Making Mike Allen. COMPLETE THE EXERCISE 2.
Integrated Decision Making Mike Allen
COMPLETE THE EXERCISE 2
3
Objectives
Consensus Building
Strengths and Weaknesses
Analytical View Point & “Winning”
A Six-Step Consensus Decision Making FrameworkBy Dan McCarthy
Building Consensus4
5
Consensus Building
Consensus building is hard work It takes a willingness to be open to any alternative Big egos need to be set aside The time and work invested will yield higher
quality decisions Implementation will be faster and smoother
6
Consensus, What is It?
“Consensus is a decision that every member of the group has had input on, understands, and is willing to support.”
7
Consensus, What is It?
Consensus doesn’t necessarily mean that everyone agrees on the decision. It does mean;
they’ve had their say, their voices were heard, they are committed to support the decision, they own the decision.
8
Barriers to Consensus
9
Barriers to Consensus
1. Team members think they are the smartest person in the room and don’t value the input of others.
2. Decisions need to be made quickly and team member don’t think they can take the time to involve others.
3. Team members don’t know how to involve others in a collaborative decision making process.
So you’ve been at it for a few days, how’s it going?
10
Fall Back Options
Team members need to decide on a “fallback” method in case the group cannot reach a true consensus. Otherwise, in theory, if just one person is not willing to support the decision, the meeting can go on forever.
The two most common fallback options are:
1. The group votes, majority rules.2. The leader decides.
The threat of a fallback is a deterrent – it rarely has to be used, but having it will motivate a group to give and take to reach a consensus.
11
The Six Steps to Consensus
6. Summarize the decision and decide on who’s going to do what by when.
5. Keep and discard.
4. Narrow down the choices.
3. Clarify alternatives.
2. Generate alternatives.
1. Frame the decision.
12
Consensus Exercise
What do you agree with? What would team say? What don’t you agree with? What would your team say? What have you done with each? What will you do with each?
Strengths & Weaknesses13
14
Cognitive Distortions of People Who Get Stuff Done*Personal Exceptionalism… an overall sense that your work is snowflake-special, that you are destined to have experiences outside the bounds of “normal,” but without being viewed as arrogant.Dichotomous Thinking…being extremely judgmental of people, experiences, things; highly opinionated; sees black and white with little grey.Correct Overgeneralization …making universal judgments from limited observations and being right a lot of the time. Blank-Canvas Thinking …sees their own life as a blank canvas, not paint-by-numbers.Schumpeterianism …sees creative destruction as natural, necessary, and their vocation.
*Michael Dearing, Associate Professor Stanford University
15
Strengths & Weaknesses
Pattern #1: 1, 2, 4, 8, ?, ?
Pattern #2: 1, 4, 7, 10, ?, ?
We’re pretty good at finding patterns and pushing them forward
We’re pretty good at finding patterns even when there aren’t any!
We’re pretty good a finding causation even when there isn’t any!
16
Strengths & Weaknesses
I’ve done this experiment for the last 9 events and so far it has turned up heads 9 times in a row…
Heads or Tails?
We’re not very good at estimating odds
17
Are you a better than average driver?
• We are blindly optimistic.
Strengths & Weaknesses
18
So, Bill Gates and Dwight Howard walk into this bar…
Strengths & Weaknesses
19
Natural versus Artificial Distribution
Height versus Wealth versus Losses
Strengths & Weaknesses
20
Strengths & Weaknesses
21
Strengths & Weaknesses
22
Strengths & Weaknesses
Behavioral Economics versus the Invisible Hand
Game Theory versus Homo Economus
23
What is fair? A first player (the proposer) receives a sum of money and
proposes how to divide the sum between himself and another player.
The second player (the responder) chooses to either accept or reject this proposal.
If the second player accepts, the money is split according to the proposal.
If the second player rejects, neither player receives any money.
The game is typically played only once so that reciprocation is not an issue.
24
Game Theory
25
Anchor exercise
26
Decisions and Uncertainty
We make decisions every day where the:
1. Outcomes are known2. Outcomes are unknown, but probabilities are known3. Outcomes are unknown and probabilities are unknown
We’re prepared for a world much like #2 — the world of risk, with known outcomes and probability that can be estimated, yet we live in an uncertain world with a closer resemblance to #3.References: Shane Parrish on November 24, 2013; Ignorance: Lessons from the Laboratory of Literature (Joy and Zeckhauser).
27
Developing a Tolerance of Ambiguity
Being able to making decisions without a full set of information
Being able to make decisions quickly
Being able to taking measured action without understanding how everything works
28
Evaluating Decisions
Good Outcome Bad Outcome
Good Process Deserved Success Bad Break
Bad Process Dumb Luck Poetic Justice
Analytical View Point & “Winning”29
30
Is it the plan…
31
…or the Process…
Analyze
Plan
ForecastExecute
ReviewRetail Bank
MarketSimProcess Flow
32
…or both?
33
The Bank and its Plan
What is more important, the numbers or the direction?
This would be a whole lot easier without customers and competitors to muck things up
34
Customers
35
CompetitorsHow much is too much?
How little is too little?
How much is just right?
36
Competitors
37
Competitors
38
Pitfalls and Home Runs
The Best and Worst
Key Decisions
Critical Steps
39
Balanced Scorecard Index
Becoming #1 Picking your spots Winning?
41
Balanced Scorecard Index
42
Winning…
Have a laser beam focus on targeted customers Lever your talents Have a plan Be aware of market position relative to competitors Align service with market needs Remember that Customers will pay for value
…Both here and back at your Bank
Riding on the Edge of a Slippery Slope… …and Loving It.
Questions and Answers43