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INPRO Dialogue Forum 8

Proposal to apply the INPRO Methodology-

Economics, for the case of Mexico

Federico Puente Espel

26-29 August 2014

IAEA, Vienna, Austria

Outline

• Nuclear Energy in Mexico

• Mexico current situation o Power Mix, population, energy, economic, and social indicators

o Energy Outlook 2013-2027

o National Energy Strategy 2013-2027

• Proposal to apply the INPRO Methodology

2 INPRO Dialogue Forum 8

Nuclear Energy in

Mexico



Mexico: Nuclear Power

One NPP: Laguna Verde Two GE BWR-5 reactors 4% installed capacity

1600 MWe (after the uprate)


Mexico: Nuclear Sector

Nuclear Research Institute

Regulatory Body

Operator / Utility

Electricity Sector

Outlook 2013-2027


7 June 2014

Ref. http://www.inegi.org.mx/,

http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/


Mexico’s current situation

http://www.inegi.org.mx/




8 Ref. Electricity Information 2013. International Energy Agency

Installed Electric Energy Capacity, OECD members 2010 (GW)

9 August 2014 INPRO Dialogue Forum 8

Mexico’s electricity prices

Ref. Electricity Information 2013. International Energy Agency

17th place (OECD) with the

highest electricity prices

for industry

Lowest electricity prices for

households

5.87 US$ above OECD average (108.86

US$/MWh)



Ref: Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico 2013-2027

& CFE




& CFE

13

Ref: Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico

2013-2027


Statistical regionalization

14 Ref: Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico

2013-2027


Fuel Prices

Uranium

National coal

Pacific & Golf coal

Gas

National Fuel Oil

Imported Fuel Oil

National Energy Strategy

2013-2027


16

Ref. ENE 2013-2027, SENER

2013


National Energy Strategy 2013-2027

• Ley para el Aprovechamiento de las Energías Renovables y el

Financiamiento de la Transición Energética (LAERFTE)

• Law on the Use of Renewable Energies and Financing of

Energy Transition (LAERFTE)


Electricity Sector Outlook 2013-2027



Electricity Sector Outlook 2013-2027

• Estimated total electric energy to be satisfied 465.1 TWh

• Self supply & Non-technical losses 62.5 TWh

• Electric Power Savings 39.2 TWh

• Estimated federal electric energy to be satisfied 363.4 TWh


Estimated additional required capacity


47,503 MW


Electricity Sector Outlook Planning vs. Alternative



Proposal to apply the INPRO

Methodology for NES


Proposal to apply the INPRO Methodology for NES

• Evaluation of a national nuclear energy system

based on its long term sustainability.

• Evaluation of the financial figures of merit:

attractiveness of investing in nuclear power.

• Assessment whether nuclear power is competitive

with alternatives considering economic conditions

in the country.



• INPRO Methodology (these will be analyzed for the

case of Mexico and described)

o One basic principle (BP).

o Four user requirements (UR).

o Eight criteria (CR).



• Situation considered for Mexico (four situations

considered in the INPRO Methodology):

o Deployment of additional units of the same basic type of NPP.

• Case of Mexico: nuclear power will be compared with

fossil fuelled plants and hydro.

• It is not a deregulated market: centralized decision-

making process.

• The values of CN and CA and financial figures of merit.

o Comparison of the LUEC for CN with those for alternatives, CA




Ref: COPAR 2012. Generación. Sub

Programación. CFE




Programación. CFE

Next step is to apply the INPRO Methodology for

NES


Thank you!


INPRO Dialogue Forum 8 Proposal to apply the INPRO ... · INPRO Dialogue Forum 8 2 . Nuclear Energy...

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