INNOVATION

F O R R E A L

Peter Cochranecochrane.org.uk University of Cambridge 11 Nov 2017

2nd Int Conf on Business & Social Sciences

I NNOVAT IONNot axiomatic for everyone and a frightener

“If it your problem were simple, someone would have solved it a

long time ago”

“Be prepared to consider and employ the radical, the new,

and even the crazy”

OLD WORLD TO NEW Local to Globalised & Cooperative Slow & Disconnected >> Fast & Networked Linear & Well Behaved >> Complex & Chaotic Narrow Opportunity Space >> Anything Goes!

Innovative change is generally irreversible without a big human price to pay Progress happens a Byte at a time and is now visibly accelerating

???Wisdom

UnderstandingSustainability

???

PROGRESSIVE CHANGE

Simplicity&

Order

Complexity&

Chaos

Quantum Mechanics

Quantum Dynamics

NewtonianMechanics

LinearThinking

Non-LinearCreativity

Non-LinearDiscovery

IsolationIgnorance

SuperstitionBelief SystemsTrial & ErrorDiscoveryAccidentChance

Technology begets more technology and more dependency

NEW PARTNERS

LogicalPreciseConsistentConsideredRapid RecallVast CapacityFast processingExpanding utilityGrowing MemoryVariable LinearityMemory unlimitedEvolution accelerating

Robots & AI are biggest advance in human

capacity ever

We need new ways of thinking and problem solving to survive & progress

Essential tools for a new and different era

A u g m e n t i n gintelligences

Beyond Human ABILITYWithout micro-Electronics our civilisation would cease to exist

HUMAN SPEEDBonding the gold I/O micro-wir ing

machine speedEssential to meet the needs of humanity

SILICON VALLEY The greatest concentration of technology and start up companies on the planet

Took over 100 years to build All efforts to emulate have failed It is an ecology that evolved for decades

Sustainable ecologies can’t be built top down We can prime ecologies but can’t control them The best we can do is feed and steer them!

Now is the time for a globally distributed and networked version of Silicon Valley!

resources No country/company is an island

On the path to sustainability; no company or country has direct access to all the physical, metaphysical, and people resources

required to achieve their market, national or global ambitions and responsibilities

We have no choice but to globalise and to share and this includes R&D and innovation

Ag e I nve rs i o n A new trend underway, and it has only just started

20s / 30s

30s / 40s

>50

Age Wisdom

Rewards Seniority Influence Authority

Knowledge Experience

Responsibility

D o m i n a n t State Today

Ag e I nve rs i o n A new trend underway, and it has only just started

20/30s

30/40

>50

E m e r g e n t S t a t e N e w I n n o va t o r s

Te c h S t a r t sAge Wisdom

Knowledge Experience

Rewards Seniority Influence Authority Knowledge Responsibility

Axioms

The only human that likes change is a wet baby

Axioms

Niccolò Machiavelli (1469 – 1527)

There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success, than to take the lead introduction of a new order of things.

…the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order…

…only lukewarm defenders in all those who would profit by the new…

…they fear their adversaries…and the incredulity of mankind, who do not truly believe in anything new until they have experienced it.

Axioms

Luck is everything Good timing is always vital Reliable financing an essential We are betting on teams not tech Never sell something that cannot be done You need a great supporting network of people Unless you know them well; never trust financial minds Capable & diverse people that can work together are prime Routes to market, partners and suppliers need to be in place early Be prepared to eat, sleep, live, die, marry the project and the product!

Commitment is ⧣ 1Focus on the achievable

Be prepared to

compromise

INcrEmentalA certain need and a safe step at a time

Forebears: Railways Telegraph Wireless Telephone Repeaters Television Computers RADAR SONAR Instrumentation Internet …Mobility

By Far The

DOMINANT MODE

Big screen Soft keys High price

No market demand & all alone

Cus tomer s didn’t know they needed /wanted it!

Not a mobile phone; a total communication entertainment

computing environment

INNOVATION OR EVOLUT ION ???Evolution >> Innovation

Very risky starting s t ra tegy /gamble breaking all the rules of the game at the time…and non-obvious…

…an act of faith or desperation ???

NOT GETTING ITHidden need, fashion, brand, badge, cache +++

Doh !!

Steve Balmer Microsoft Scoffs at the iPone: -No real keys -$500 an insane price

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eywi0h_Y5_U

INNOVATION OR EVOLUT ION ???Innovation >> Evolution >> Innovation…

Innovation EvolutionInnovation

RISK

REWARD

P I R A C YAnd gifts form the GODs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9c0CVItMhoQ

The board at Xerox Scoff at “The Mouse”

Steve Jobs pays a visit to PARC

P I R A C YAnd gifts form the GODs

AND SO STARTED A

PROUD TRADITION IN

APPLE

INNOvators now

queue up to give to

Apple

REAIL ITY

IDEA R&D DEMO MODEL

FUNDING GETTING TO MARKET

Break Even

Income

Invested Money Time

Worth Money Time

Potential Worth

Events Markers Sequence

$$$$ Time Value

Worth Energy

Risk Market Fashion Competition Game Changers

D UMB & D UMB E R

• No proven market demand

• No proven business case

• No investment case

• No risk assessment

• +++

Managers & Management

The Heilmeier Catechism (modified by PC):

• What are you trying to do?

• Articulate your objectives as simply as possible.

• How is it done today, and what are the limits of current practice?

• What is new in your approach and why do you think it will be successful?

• Who cares?

• If you are successful, what difference will it make?

• What are the risks?

• What are the opportunities?

• What are the mid-term and final checks and balances

• How do you define/measure success?www.darpa.mil/work-with-us/heilmeier-catechism

methodologiesNever guarantee success, at best mitigate risk

There is a near endless ‘galaxy of tools’ avai lableTOOLS & PROCESS

p e r s o n a l E x p e r i e n c e sUnl ike ly to be in any book - they are rea l l i fe cho ices

“I have never had a management role where I haven’t had to

assume the role as leader, champion and arbiter”

M a n a g e m e n t r e a l i t yYou are travel l ing at speed with incomplete vis ion• Spec changes• Mission creep• Team changes• Supplier failures• Fickle customer• Budget squeezes• Market pressures• Deadline changes• Competing needs• Transient support• Technology change• Order scale change• Management changes• Shareholder demands

• Strategic internal/customer changes• Political and government changes• Legal and environmental rulings• Competing product offerings• New price point negotiated• Internal conflict of interest• Unforeseen M&A activity• New features demanded• Budget/people squeezes• Operating arena change• Deliverables delayed• Hidden agendas• ++++

AppropriatenessD o n ’ t u s e a s l e d g e h a m m e r t o c ra c k a wa l n u t

Yo u m i g h t u s e P R I N C E o r s o m e o t h e r f o r m a l m e t h o d t o b u i l d a n

a i r c r a f t b u t n o t t o b u y a p e n c i l ! !

s i t u a t i o n a wa r e n e s sRemain f lex ib le , adaptab le and ready to change

C o m m u n i c a t i o n i s k e yMight seem obv ious / t r i v ia l but turns out to be d i f f i cu l t

• Never assume that people are telling you the full detail/facts/truth

• Never assume that people understand what you said and meant

• Targets are generally achieved/met by people bending the truth

• In general 3 - 5 KPIs extol the truth but >10 illicit falsehoods

• KPIs are very often achieved by people fiddling the numbers

• If 10 people are in a meeting then it is 10 different meetings

• Finance/sales/marketing, seldom have the correct numbers

• Personnel are there to observe you and not help and assist

COMPLEX REAL ITYFo rma l i s a t i on me thod s canno t o ve rcome s ca l e

S o m e p r o j e c t s a r e n o w s o l a r g e a n d c o m p l e x t h e y c a n n o t b e o r g a n i s e d a n d o rc h e s t r a t e d b y h u m a n m i n d s … .

… i t i s t h e m a c h i n e s t h a t d o a l l t h i s , a n d i n t h e e x t r e m e , a m a c h i n e m a y b e t h e u l t i m a t e m a n a g e r a n d o r g a n i s e r…

REAL ExperiencesReco l lect ions and rea l i ty spann ing 1980 to Today

TAT 8 1980 p ro j e c t s t a r t 1986 cab l e i n t o s e r v i c e - Re t i red 2002

Connect ing UK - F rance - USA by the f i r s t t r ansa t l an t i c cab leArt i f i c i a l Ocean Quarry & Traw l s A f l ee t o f 6 sh ip s Anchors & Cha in s L a y i n g E q u i p m e n t Mon i tor ing Sys tems Recovery Equ ipment Sh ipboard Equ ipment Acce le ra ted L i f e Tes t Submar ine Cab le Tes t Measurement Sys tems

Labora tor ie s C lean Rooms C h i p D e s i g n C i rcu i t Des i gn Sys tem Des i gn Ch ip Fabr i ca t ion Opt i ca l F ib re Tes t Power Feed Des i gn Surge /Fa i l u re Tes t ing So f t Fa i l u re Mon i tor ing Undersea Repa i r S t ra tegy

Cos t ~ £350M Peop le ~ 3000 Countr i e s = 4 Compan ie s = 7 Sea depth < 4 .5 km Cab le Span ~ 67000 km Capac i t y = 2 x 280Mb i t / s Repeater span 41 - 65 km Opt i ca l = 1 .3𝜇m 0 .25dB /km

REAL ExperiencesReco l lect ions and rea l i ty spann ing 1980 to Today

TAT 8 1980 p ro j e c t s t a r t 1986 cab l e i n t o s e r v i c e - Re t i red 2002

Connect ing UK - F rance - USA by the f i r s t t r ansa t l an t i c cab leArt i f i c i a l Ocean Quarry & Traw l s A f l ee t o f 6 sh ip s Anchors & Cha in s L a y i n g E q u i p m e n t Mon i tor ing Sys tems Recovery Equ ipment Sh ipboard Equ ipment Acce le ra ted L i f e Tes t Submar ine Cab le Tes t Measurement Sys tems

Labora tor ie s C lean Rooms C h i p D e s i g n C i rcu i t Des i gn Sys tem Des i gn Ch ip Fabr i ca t ion Opt i ca l F ib re Tes t Power Feed Des i gn Surge /Fa i l u re Tes t ing So f t Fa i l u re Mon i tor ing Undersea Repa i r S t ra tegy

Cos t ~ £350M Peop le ~ 3000 Countr i e s = 4 Compan ie s = 7 Sea depth < 4 .5 km Cab le Span ~ 67000 km Capac i t y = 2 x 280Mb i t / s Repeater span 41 - 65 km Opt i ca l = 1 .3𝜇m 0 .25dB /km

No Proven Business

Case

DOH !

Day 1 situationConnec t UK - F rance - USA opt i ca l l y

TAT 8 1980 no t e chno l ogy a va i l ab l e , on l y a s t a t emen t o f i n t en t and a budge t ! ! !

TAT 8 1980 a l l we had was an ana l ogue l e gacy o f d i s c re t e t e chno l og i e s +++

Day 1 situationConnec t UK - F rance - USA opt i ca l l y

THE Biggest challengesD e l e g a t i o n - p r o b l e m s o l v i n g - o r c h e s t r a t i o n

TAT 8 P e r f e c t i o n - t h e e n e m y o f p r o g r e s sPeop le - the b iggest asset /n ightmare

i t b e c a m eA w h o l l y c o n n e c t e d p l a n e t

I n ternet Sc i ence Network F inanc i a l Network Te lephone Network Eng ineer ing Network Pr imary Wea l th Manager Log i s t i c s Contro l Network +++++ Nervous Sys tem o f The P l anet

i t b e c am eA new global mega-industry

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q61DHtgFqa0

1998 P ro j e c t s t a r t 1999 S ta r t ed t rad i ng - So l d 2002

The f i r s t on - l i ne t rave l agent i n the EU - £0 - £1Bn in 4 year s

Or i g i na ted f rom my ABTA l e c tu re i n Marbe l l a Sep tember 2008

F i r s t p l ann ing meet ing October 2008 Fund ing o f £55M ra i sed i n November 2008 F i r s t p rototype sy s tem bu i l t December 2008 Open for bus ines s and t rad ing i n J anuary 2009 Immed ia te g rowth @ 35$ / month cont inu ing to 2002 Ach ieved £1Bn turnover (not va lua t ion ) by end o f year 2003

REAL ExperiencesReco l lect ions and rea l i ty spann ing 1980 to Today

1995 P ro j e c t s t a r t 1996 S ta r t ed t rad i ng - C l o s ed 2003

An ‘ i dea - to market i ncubator ’ i n S i l i con Va l l ey

People came to us with good ideas and technology but without the experience of how to create a product and get it to market. We provided a 'soup to nuts' support infrastructure spanning idea cultivation through to a full IPO.

ConceptLabs was a one stop shop for tech and business creatives. We took the pain away by providing money, advice, skills, and management capability to help you build your company

Started by me and Rao Machiraju and 12 people out of Apple ATG who were ‘put out to grass’ by Steve Jobs

Simple Business Model: ConceptsLabs worked for a share of the companies created – we invested our own money along side the VCs that supported us in this new and, at the time, highly innovative venture.

REAL ExperiencesReco l lect ions and rea l i ty spann ing 1980 to Today

2012 P ro j e c t s t a r t 2015 P ro j e c t Abandoned

A new acous t i c so lu t ion to sn iper spot t ing

Snipers kill people in war zones - more often than not civilians - and for target practice and fun

Existing methods had limited range and were easily ‘blinded’ by bombs, gunfire and screams

R&D by me and Graham Bank Ex Celestion, NXT Cambridge - a speculative venture

Our idea and invention was to create a new form of acoustic, rather than electronic, filtering

REAL ExperiencesReco l lect ions and rea l i ty spann ing 1980 to Today

We succeeded, published and presented at conferences, but …we couldn’t convince investors

We never got past the ‘self funded’ demo model phase….and had to abandon the project….

AI & innovat ion A primary tool of discovery and understanding

Analytics: Medical Security Big Data Political Networks Economic Genomic Proteomic Diplomatic Complexity ++++

We are way past the point where humans cananalyse complexity even on a small scale !

Design: Chips Devices Systems Networks Behaviours ++++

Knowledge: Veracity Linking Creation Curation Searching Selection ++++

The machines are starting to innovate at lowerlevels and where humans cannot!

Robot studentLearn ing f rom a master o f the ar t

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6UxmpbSQGU

Robot/AI student and Master compete - Katana to Katana

Robot studentLearn ing f rom a master o f the ar t

CALIBRATION

Some will scoff at such apparently simple achievements - but humans take hours and hours of practice to get this right..

…robots and AI could not do this 5 years ago, but now they do it in just one pass…and then the get better on every single go….

BIG Takeway

Robots & AI can learn and pefect specific abilities 100 - 1000s of times faster than humans

“When people are overwhelmed by big problems and fear - it is not our job to add to the fear and panic - but to help craft a solution with them”

“It is easy to train machines and people to deal with the routine, but the novel and the unexpected is much harder and demands the efforts of multidisciplinary, and diverse, teams of people and machines”

including AI, Robotics, Computing Engines, Instrumentation & Networks

Profess ional ism Our responsibil it ies as managers, engineers, scientists

I must keep an open mind !

I think and do different!

I’m thinking of doing a startup…. I work in an old established company…

F u n d a m e n ta lThink, be different, and make a friend of risk

cochrane.org.uk ca-global.biz

For more presentations, papers, videos, on this topic and supporting topics GOTO www.cochrane.org.uk

T h a n k y o u !