Ingersol Exec Summ of---The Kissinger Report NSSM200

7/27/2019 Ingersol Exec Summ of---The Kissinger Report NSSM200

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DEPARTMENT OF STATEWASHINGTON

NSC UNDER SECRETARIES COMMITTEE

December 14, 1974

MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENTSubject: Implications of Worldwide Population Growthfor U.S. Security and Overseas Interests

In response to NSSM 200, I am forwarding foryour consideration the enclosed study on worldwidepopulation growth and U.S. interests.Scope

The study looks to the year 2000 and beyond onthe basis of alternative projections for populationgrowth:-- Part One examines the nature of the problem

i n its demographic, economic, resource andnational security aspects;-- Part Two sets forth a comprehensive globalpopulation strategy and policy recommenda-tions.The executive summary at the beginning of the

study presents an overview of the problem and theproposed strategy.Population Growth and Its Implications

The UN medium population projection -- theprojection used for anticipating food requirements

DECLASSIFIEDA/ISS/IPS, Department of Stat

E.O. 12958, as amendedDecember 18, 200


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-- forecasts world population growth from 3.9 billiontoday t 6.4 billion by the year 2000 and over 11billion y 2050. This is a relatively optimisticprojecti n. Holding growth within these limits willrequire xpanded population growth control programs.Reg'onal imbalances of growth will be verysevere. There is a sharp differentiation betweenrich countries and poor, the latter growing at 2.0to 3.5 percent comp ared to developed countries at0 to 1.5 percent. The popu lation of some deve loping

areas will more than double by the year 2000. Theenormous built-in mom entum of population growthresulting from the extreme youthfulness of populationsin develo ping countries m akes the developm ent ofpopulation growth control programs a matter of urgency.Such growth rates have already generated seriousproblems for most developing countries, especially thepoorest, fastest growing; these problems will becomeworse as populations continue to expand.Perhaps the most serious challenge from botha humanitarian and a national interest viewpoint willbe adequ a cy of world food supplies for the developingcountries as populations press against limits ofavailableland, water, capital and resources inputs.Crop faiures anywhere will raise the possibility

1of massi e famines in parts of the developing world.The resu ting disruption and instability can threateneconom ic grow th and w orld order. The D epartment ofAgricult re estimates that, if the population of thedevelopi ng countries increases at the rate of the UNmedium projection for the year 2000, their annualimport requirement for cereals will rise to morethan 100 million tons by that year, even if by greatefforts they also increase their indigenous foodproduction by the amounts likely. This quantity ofimports will be well beyond their ability to purchaseand will exceed any practicable capacity for transpor-tation and distribution. Their only alternative willbe to abandon any improvement in nutrition over presentlevels, to accept a marked rise in death rates




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(particularly of infants and children), to increasetheir food production by amounts greater than nowbelieved practicable, or to reduce their populationgrowth m ore rapidly than the UN med ium projection.A global replacement level of fertility (a two-childfamily on the average) by the year 2000 would holddeveloping country populations 500 million belowthe UN medium projection by 2000 and 3 billion belowit in 200, thereby reducing developing country foodimport requirements by an equivalent amount.Excessive population growth holds back economic

development and seriously affects per capita incomesand social progress. Thus failure of developmentalgoals can bring mounting frustrations, increaseNorth-South tensions, and lead to political instability,violence!, and conflict within individual countriesand anion' the developing countries.While we do not foresee serious problems ofavailabi ity of non-renewable minerals as a result ofpopulation growth alone such growth will make itincreasingly difficult for the poorest developingcountries to pay for needed raw materials and energy.Their requirements for vital imports could affect theU.S. both through their requests for financialsupport and their efforts to obtain higher prices fortheir exports.Proposed Strategy

The study recommends a comprehensive strategyfocusing on:a) Support of the UN World Population Planof Actionadopted at the BucharestConference, plus a global target of '

replacement fertility levels by the year2000.b) The engagementof the developing countriesthemselvesand their political leaders inefforts to moderate population growth,since success is only possible frominternal commitment. We must be constantlyaware of resistance by the leadershipof some countries and by vocal elementsin other countries to US activities inthis field.




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c)A bilateral andmultilateral assistancestrategy emphasizing:(1 ) priority to 13 key countries whichcontribute almost half of the presentpopulation growth;(2 ) delivery of family planning informationand services to all fertile couplesat the earliest possible time;(3 ) within our general social and economic

program those elements which are mostconducive to reducing fertility; and(4 ) increased funding for AID populationprograms.

d)Increased funding and support for a world-wide effort for research in human reproductionand development of low-cost, efficient andacceptable fertility control methods.e)US participation with other donor countriesand UN agencies in a-cooperative endeavor

to develop systems for the delivery ofbasic health services including family planningto poorer developing countries.f)A major worldwide effort of education aboutpopulation growth and family planning.g)Increased provision for food aid, stock-piling for shortages and agricultural assis-tance as a vital element in any successfulpopulation strategy. Increases in foodavailability and improved nutrition areequally important in any total strategyaimed at solving future population and foodimbalances. Our food policy is beingactively addressed separately in the follow-up to the World Food Conference.

RecommendationsPopulation growth and related factors requireboth high level attention and continuing review andupdating. There are no simple solutions. Added fund-




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ing will be required to make a significant impact.The study's recommendations in this respect are subjectto changing circumstances. Above all, however, the pro-blem must be recognized by the developing countriesthemselves.All U.S. efforts should be undertaken in such away as o minimize criticism that they are directedagainst the interests of the developing countries.Therefo e, the proposed stresses the development of thewell-be i ng and economic progress of the poorest countriesIt may, owever, be necessary to weigh conflicting U.S.interes s in the case of particular countries.

Taking the foregoing consideration into account,the Under Secretaries Committee recommends that youendorse the proposed global population strategy presentedabove and amplified in the attached study.IBecause this strategy involves complex anddifficult questions, including questions related toour political and security interests, and because anumber of different agencies of the government havean interest in this matter, the Under SecretariesCommittee, with the exception of AID, also recommends

that you assign to the Committee responsibility formonitoring policy aspects of implementation of thestrategy for conducting an annual review of progress,and for ecommending to you any significant changeswhich ma be needed.The Agency for International Development believesthat, whenestablished, the Development CoordinationCommittee (DCC) chaired by the AID Administrator shouldbe assigned this responsibility. AID believes this willensure tat populationpolicy is addressed in a develop-ment context, which in its view, based on its experience,is the best way to minimize the political sensitivities

of many countries on this issue.Thee alternatives are discussed in the ExecutiveSummary of the attached study.As Chairman of the Under Secretaries Committee, Ibelieve that the continuing review of population strategyin relation to our overall national interests, which this




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Committed is prepared to undertake if you so desire,could assist in providing a broad policy framework withinwhich in erested bodies might most effectively pursuetheir re ponsibilities respecting specific aspects ofthis maj r task.

Robert S. IngersollChairman

Attachment:As stated



Ingersol Exec Summ of---The Kissinger Report NSSM200

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