ING International Trade Study Developments in global trade: from 1995 to 2017

Belgium

Executive summary

About the International Trade Study by ING

The ING International Trade Study aims to help INGs (inter)national clients develop their knowledge and capabilities for doing

business across borders, and to contribute to the public debate on internationalization. We do this by generating valuable insights

on the current and future economic trends and international trade developments worldwide.

This report is part of a series of ING 2012 International Trade Study reports, which includes forecasts for 60 different country and

13 product group reports. These reports document trade developments over the past years and the ING forecasts (2012-2017) for

future international trade patterns and business opportunities, by partner country and export product. These forecasts are derived

from a model specifically developed by the ING Economics Bureau (see also Methodology), and complemented with the in-depth

knowledge of ING economists in our offices around the world.

Belgium is expected to grow on average 0.4% in the coming years. This is relatively low compared to the average of other

European countries and also relatively low compared to the global average of 3.7%. Because of its own economic growth and

that of its main trading partners, Belgian exports are expected to grow 3.8% annually to US$ 598 bn in 2017, making Belgium the

14th largest exporter worldwide. Similarly, import demand will grow with an average of 3.4% per year to US$ 568 bn in 2017,

meaning that Belgium will take the 16th position on the global list of largest importers. By 2017, Belgium will mainly import fuels,

chemicals and other manufactured products, which together account for 41% of total imports of Belgium. Similarly, Belgium's

exports will mainly consist of chemicals, pharmaceuticals and fuels. Together these products will represent 41% of total exports

in 2017. By 2017, Belgium will mainly import products from the Netherlands, Germany and France, which together account for

47% of total imports of Belgium. Belgium's main export markets will be Germany, France and the Netherlands. Together these

countries will account for 50% of total exports in 2017.

5

2012F 2013F 2014F

GDP growth (real): -0.2% 0.3% 1.2%

GDP nominal (bn): 471$ 493$ 517$

Exchange rate* EUR/USD 1.22 1.28 1.30

Inflation: 2.8% 2.0% 2.1%

GDP composition by sector 2010

Agriculture: 0.7%

Industry: 21.8%

Services: 77.5%

2011 2030

Population (mln): 10.7 11.2

GDP per capita: 45,089$

Unemployment rate (avg.): 7.2%

Employment (mln persons): 4.549

2011 2012 2013

Competitiveness rank WEF 15 17

Ease of doing business rank: 27 28 33

Credit rating :

S&P AA

Moodys Aa3

Fitch: AA

*end period

Economy

Population

Other indicators

International

Trade

Trade by products (bn)

North

America

South America

Africa

EU

Asia

Belgium 2011

Food & live animals

Crude materials,

inedible, except fuels

Machinery & Transport

equipment

Beverage & Tobacco

Manufactured goods

Mineral fuels Chemicals

Animal and vegetable

oils

Miscellaneous

manufactured articles

Oceania

CIS

2.9%

2%

12%

0.6%

6%

2%72%

Exports (bn) $478 Imports (bn) $465 Trade balance (bn) $12.71 Exports % of GDP 65%

Exports $35.97

Imports $30.34

Exports $3.82

Imports $4.18

Exports $13.31

Imports $20.28

Exports $51.67

Imports $76.37

Exports $1.76

Imports $2.89

Exports $135.47

Imports $104.85

Exports $85.12

Imports $74.04

Exports $98.47

Imports $105.46

Exports $40.88

Imports $39.84

Exports by region

MENADeveloping Asia

South America

United States

Central and Eastern Europe

Commonwealth of

Independent States

2.0 2.6 3.2

2012 2013 2014

6.7 7.2 7.5

2012 2013 2014

3.2 3.9 4.1

2012 2013 2014

4.0 4.1 4.2

2012 2013 2014

5.3 3.6 3.8

2012 2013 2014

2.1 1.8 2.1

2012 2013 2014

-0.2 0.5 1.5

2012 2013 2014

-0.2

0.3 1.2

2012 2013 2014

GDP growth

Global economic growth forecast: Belgium

European Union

Belgium

Economic growth in the coming years will remains sluggish in developed markets. Especially the Eurozone will only experience

limited growth as the region continues to struggle with the Eurocrisis. World output growth is strongly driven by emerging

markets, in particular China and other developing Asian countries.

GDP growth of Belgium is predicted to be slightly lower than the growth of the European Union, with 0.3% in 2013 and 1,2% in 2014.

Trade forecast

Belgium 1995 2011 2017

World ranking 9 11 14

CAGR 2012-2017 3.8%

Belgium 1995 2011 2017

World ranking 10 11 16

CAGR 2012-2017 3.4%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Total exports

bn $

2011 2017

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Total imports

bn $

2011 2017

In the coming years, exports (in current dollar terms) are expected to increase with 3.8% annually. The rank of Belgium in

the list of largest exporters worldwide will decrease to 14.

Demand for foreign products (imports) is also expected to increase in the next five years, with 3.4% annually. The rank of

Belgium in the list of largest importers worldwide will decrease to 16.

Worldwide, the top three export and import countries in 2017 will be China, United States and Germany. The countries that

show the greatest increase in demand for imports of foreign products are Vietnam, Indonesia and Taiwan.

Today (2012) Tomorrow (2017)

The size of the bubble represents the size of imports

Belgian import demand Belgian import origins

2017

2012

Demand for products: origins of imports

Main origins of imports, 2011 and 2017*

Belgium

Import product Origin mln $

Fuels Netherlands || 2% |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||| 40805

Chemicals Netherlands | 1% |||||||||||| 12822

Pharmaceuticals Ireland -4% ||||||||||| 11302

Pharmaceuticals Germany 0% |||||||||| 10767

Basic food and food products Netherlands ||| 4% |||||||||| 10178

Road vehicles & transport equipment Germany 0% ||||||||| 9416

Chemicals Germany -1% ||||||||| 9045

Chemicals United States 0% |||||||| 8347

Basic food and food products France |||| 4% |||||| 6514

Fuels United Kingdom ||| 3% |||||| 6266

CAGR 2012-2017 Value 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140bn $ 2011 2017

Top 10 largest import flows by product and country of origin*

By 2017, Belgium will mainly

import products from the

Netherlands, Germany and

France, which together account

for 47% of total imports of

Belgium. In volumes, the most

important trade flows to

Belgium currently include fuels

from the Netherlands,

chemicals from the

Netherlands, and

pharmaceuticals from Ireland.

In the coming years, these

flows are expected to change

with 2%, 1% and -4% per year,

respectively.

*within the 60 countries and product flows

included in the study

Demand for products: imports by product group

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Basic food and food products

Beverages and tobacco

Agricult. raw materials

Textiles

Ores and metals

Fuels

Chemicals

Pharmaceuticals

Industrial machinery

Office, telecom and electrical equipment

Road vehicles & transport equipment

Other manufactures

Other products

bn $

2017

2011

2007

By 2017, Belgium will mainly import fuels, chemicals and other manufactured products, which together

account for 41% of total imports of Belgium.

Today (2012) Tomorrow (2017)

The size of the bubble represents the size of exports

Where do Belgian products go to? Belgian export markets

Exports: key destination markets

Key destination markets of exports, 2011 and 2017*

Top 10 largest export flows by product and destination country*

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

20

40

60

80

100

120bn $ 2011 2017

Belgium

Export product Export partner mln $

Chemicals Germany | 1% ||||||||||||||||||||| 21155

Fuels Netherlands |||||| 6% ||||||||||||| 13292

Chemicals France 0% ||||||||||| 11685

Ores and metals Germany |||||| 7% ||||||||||| 11642

Pharmaceuticals Germany -3% ||||||||| 9491

Other manufactures India | 1% |||||||| 8965

Fuels France ||||| 5% |||||||| 8661

Chemicals Netherlands ||||| 5% |||||||| 8558

Road vehicles & transport equipment Germany | 1% |||||||| 8515

Basic food and food products France | 1% |||||||| 8426

CAGR 2012-2017 Value 2011

Belgium's main export markets

will be Germany, France and

the Netherlands. Together