Industry Overview and Developments
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Transcript of Industry Overview and Developments
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Industry Overview and Developments
• Ralph GroschenRalph Groschen• Senior Marketing SpecialistSenior Marketing Specialist
• Minnesota Department of AgricultureMinnesota Department of Agriculture• [email protected]
• www.mda.state.mn.uswww.mda.state.mn.us
Riverland Community CollegeDecember 6, 2006
Kasson, MN
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% of US Ethanol Market
MGP Ingredients
3%
VeraSun3%
Cargill3%
Aventine 4%
ADM32%
Abengoa3%
New Energy3%
Includes plants under construction as of September 2003
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New Projects
HAWAII
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Minnesota Ethanol:Production, Producer Payments, and Economic Impacts
(Fiscal Year: July 1-June 30)
$42
$89 $91 $101 $115
$204
$276$254
$352
$511
$629$587
-$14 -$22 -$28 -$35 -$35 -$34
300
252220
190
124112
69514138351711
$29
-$11-$3 -$5 -$4 -$5 -$6-$2
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Mill
ion
Ethanol Production (Million Gallons)
Total Economic Impacts (Million $)
Producer Payments (Million $)
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Minnesota’s Ethanol Plants
Plant (Start date) Original capacity (millions) 2004
• Marshall (1987) 10 40• Morris (1991) 3.5 22• Corn Plus (1994) 15 40• Heartland (1995) 10 37• Al-Corn (1996) 10 34• CVEC (1996) 15 42• MN Energy (1997) 12 18• Ethanol 2000 (1997) 12 30
• Pro-Corn (1998) 12 40• Cornerstone (1998) 12 21• CMEC (1999) 20 22• Exol (1999) 13 40• North Star 2005 50 50• Total 210 454
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Yields
Yields
1.67 Btu of 1.67 Btu of fuel ethanolfuel ethanol
(USDA)(USDA)
0.805 Btu 0.805 Btu of gasolineof gasoline
100% more energy w/ Ethanol
1 Btu 1 Btu of of
fossil fossil energyenergy
Coal, oil, Coal, oil, or gasor gas
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DDGs for 40 million gal. plant energy?
Total Process Energy
Total Electrical Energy
Total Energy Required
Total Energy from DDGs
1,440,000,000,000
508,000,000,000
1,948,000,000,000
1,954,000,000,000
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Market Development
• 5 billion gallons used today, mostly in E10. • E85 is future possibility for market
expansion. (MN is way ahead nationally)• May also develop other markets:
– 1. Aviation Fuel?– 2. Diesel Fuel (Sweden)– 3. E20 (Gov’s initiative)– 4. RFG area O2 caps may be lifted
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Where do we go from here?
• Maintain existing industry through transition• “Cellulose” (biomass) to ethanol and other fuels.• Minnesota plants are taking the initiative.• Pathways
– 1. Use biomass fuels for process energy. (MN)– 2. Enzyme/Fermentation DOE focus. – 2. Thermochemical
• A. Various thermochemical reactions (Pyrolysis- Synthetics)• B. Gasification “Syngas” and “biorefinery process” (MN)
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What’s Possible?
Year Biomass
YieldTons/acre
Acres
Planted(millions)
Cellulosic
Ethanol(billion gals)
Corn
Ethanol(billion gals)
Total
Ethanol(billion gals)
2012 8.9 5 4.4 12.0 16.5
2017 12.5 19 24.8 14.6 39.4
2027 23.1 49 124.4 14.6 139.0
Source - Vinod Khosla 70% of today’s gasoline usage?
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Fossil Energy Ratio (FER) = energy in fuel/fossil energy input
10.31
1.36
0.980.81
0.45
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Cell. EtOH Corn EtOH Coal Gasoline Electricity
Michael Wang, Center for Transportation Research,Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory
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Yields
Yields
3.2 Btu of 3.2 Btu of BiodieselBiodiesel
(USDA & DOE)(USDA & DOE)
0.843 Btu 0.843 Btu of Diesel of Diesel
FuelFuel
280% more energy w/ Biodiesel
1 Btu 1 Btu of of
fossil fossil energyenergy
Coal, oil, Coal, oil, or gasor gas
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Minnesota Biodiesel
• 2% required in Minnesota since 9/29/05• 3 plants, 63 million gallons production capacity• High blends & B100 used in summer by some• Filter problems in Winter ‘05 & ’06 blamed on
biodiesel• Some “off-spec” biodiesel was shipped• Everybody used B2, most had no problem• Other potential causes of filter problems were
not discussed
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Diesel Filter Problems• Jan. 2006 Cummins Diesel Bulletin
• Diesel filter life has shortened steadily since Winter of 2004.
• Major causes of plugging are:– “Asphaltine” polymers duel to high fuel temp– “Biological organism” growing in fuel– “Engine lubricating oil” mixed in fuel
• Engine design, pipeline additives & used oil.
– Biodiesel fuel mixed at “high levels” (B20)– “Solid Particle contaminants, (Dirt)”
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Questions?