Indus River System Model - IIASA...Indus River System Model: A planning tool to explore...

Mobin-ud-Din Ahmad, Joel Stewart, Geoff Podger

Managing Systems Under Stress: Science for Solutions in the Indus Basin3rd Indus Knowledge Forum, IIASA Laxenburg Austria1st June, 2018

LAND AND WATER

Indus River System Model: A planning tool to explore Water-Energy-Food nexus for Pakistan

The Sustainable Development Investment Portfolio (SDIP) is an Australian government initiative with the goal of increasing water, food and energy security in South Asia, targeting the poorest and most vulnerable, particularly women and girls.

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7 partners - CSIRO, ACIAR, ICE WaRM, ICIMOD, IFC, SAWI/WB, TAF

Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/

Background2012 Water Sector Task Force Report (WSTFR) outlined a range of significant pressures and issues facing the Indus basin in Pakistan

Requirement for a repeatable system/evidence base to quantify the major water balance terms and then objectively plan for:

o Climate Changeo Infrastructure (USD$26b proposed investment)o Developmento Water sharing according to interprovincial Water

Apportionment Accord

Action area 5 (Building Knowledge and Capacity), recommends the implementation of Australian water management technologies and associated capacity building

Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/3 |

• Pakistan High Commission, Canberra• Federal and State Minister for Water and Power • Minster for Planning Development and Reform • Ministry of Water and Power (Ministry of Water Resources):

– Secretary, Additional Secretary, Joint Secretary– WAPDA: Chairman, Member Water and senior officers– IRSA: Chairman and members– PCIW: Commissioner and Additional Commissioner– FFC: Chairman and senior officers

• Punjab Irrigation Department: Secretary and senior officers• Sindh Irrigation Department: Secretary and senior officers• Pakistan Meteorological Department• Minister for Climate Change • Minister for Food Security and Chairman PARC• Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources: Chairman and

other senior officers• Ms Marvi Memon MNA and Chairperson Benazir Income Support

Program

Government Interactions

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GoP and GoA project agreement signedIndus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/

SDIP Pakistan – Key activities• Integrated water resource assessment, data management,

modelling and capacity building to support national water planning and policy development.

• Scenarios and outlook of agricultural production, food security, water use and livelihood outcomes under changing climate, increasing population and infrastructure development.


New Infrastructure

Water sharing and

gender

Crop and energy

production

ClimateHistoric and Future Precipitation, Temperature and ET

Rim Station Inflow

Kabul, Indus, Jhelum, Chenab,

Rav Sutlej

Rive

r Sys

tem

Mod

el

Seasonal Flow Forecast

Surface Water Allocation

1991 AccordProvincial Sharing

Water UseIrrigation

HydropowerUrbanSalinity

Environment

Groundwater

Water Delivery

Expected inflow

Indus River System Model

Towards the centralised hydrological data management

Pilot HYDSTRA implementation at WAPDA to support building and maintaining a consistent, best practice time series hydrological data archive


The Indus River System Model Represents IBIS by describing both physical and

water sharing systems

Takes flows at rim stations and simulate IRSA’s implementation of the 1991 Interprovincial Water Apportionment Accord at a daily time step

Undertakes provincial allocation of the seasonally forecast water

Distributes the waters to canal commands while considering the storage volumes, inflows from different tributaries, canal priorities, transmission losses and channel constrains

Simulates daily river flows, crop production and system losses 1990-2017

7 | Indus SDIP Pakistan | https://research.csiro.au/sdip/projects/indus/

Key resultsMoWR is convinced with the approach and ability of the model to represent Indus basin irrigation system model and to investigate implications for water sharing between provinces under alternative dam operations for hydropower and irrigation


Infrastructure Planning Scenario Example(Illustration Purposes Only with assumed specifications & operations)


MAF/yr Water deliveries

Historic Baseline 92.9

Additional Storage 99.2

Change from Historic 6.4

% change from Historic 6.8%

• In the near future, available water may decrease slightly due to Tarbela infilling, but can increase with a new dam

• Significantly more power can be generated with a new dam upstream of Tarbela

• Operational rules associated with new dams have significant impact on overall results

Storage Historic Baseline (GWh) Balancing Tarbela (GWh)

Tarbela 14,411 17,321

Ghazi Barotha 6,727 6,862

Chashma 987 1,007

New Indus Storage(assumed capacity as DB) 20,024

Total 22,125 45,214

Water deliveriesHydropower generation

Agricultural Water Demand and Yield Gap Analysis

• Time-series Agricultural Demand (1981-2012)

• Built technical capacity of UAF staff to quantify crop yield gaps and associated causes using a cropping systems model.


Looking beyond water quality data into decision-making contexts for the Ravi and Sutlej rivers in PakistanCSIRO and PCRWR work highlighted the most polluted reaches in the river Ravi and Sutlej as well as drains and highlighted the need for better cross-sectoral collaboration to open up new options and pathways for improving water quality to achieve SDG’s

Grigg, N, M Ahmad, S Imran, G Podger, M Kirby, M Colloff 2018. Water quality in the Ravi and Sutlej Rivers, Pakistan: a system view. CSIRO: CSIRO; 2018. csiro:EP18122.


Socio-Economic and Gender

• Manchar Lake Gender & Livelihood Study

• Designed a project component to look into the role of women participation in agricultural activities in the Punjab rice-wheat zone

• Initiated discussion with PIDE to involve post-graduate students (preferably female) to examine the impact of agricultural policies on land use changes, cropping pattern and agricultural production of major crops


Next Steps

Final technical review and acceptance (2017)

Model testing and scenario development with project partners (2018)

Scenario implementation for strategic integrated water management decision support

New Infrastructure

Water sharing and

gender

Crop and energy

production

Scenario Analysis:• Elicitation and configuration with key

stakeholders• Exploring impacts of infrastructure development

and climate change on water security• Water sharing scenarios for agriculture,

hydropower and environment under current and future climates while considering livelihood aspects

• Supporting the national water planning and policy initiatives


Pakistan National Water Policy• National Hydrological Data Management and sharing (22. Information

Management)• Recognition to use scientific knowledge for water negotiations (24. Research)• Re-building WAPDA technical capacity (29. Capacity Building of Water Sector

Institutions)• Using model for infrastructure planning and operation (8. Impact of Climate

Change, 24 Research)• Groundwater management (10. Irrigated Agriculture, 16. Groundwater)• Demand management (26. Demand Management)• Land and water productivity improvement (28. Main Targets and Investment

Requirements)• Water quality consideration (12. Drinking Water and Sanitation, 16.

Groundwater, 21. Quality Management)• Recognition of Women role related to WASH (18.3)


https://research.csiro.au/sdip/indus/

Thank you

CSIRO LAND AND WATER

Dr Mobin-ud Din AhmadProject Leader – SDIP Indus Pakistan Principal Research ScientistGPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT2601Australia

t +61 2 6246 5936e [email protected]

https://research.csiro.au/sdip/indus/

AcknowledgementProject Partners:Policy Partners: Pakistan Ministry of Water Resources (WAPDA, IRSA, PCIW, NESPAK, CEA, FFC) and Provincial (Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan) Irrigation departments.

Delivery Partners: Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR), University of Agriculture Faisalabad, Sindh Agriculture University Tandojam, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology Jamshoro, NESPAK

Indus River System Model - IIASA...Indus River System Model: A planning tool to explore...

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