Indian Journal of AIR POLLUTION CONTROLepubs.surrey.ac.uk/6569/2/Kolkata Emissions_IAAPC.pdf ·...

14
Indian Journal of AIR POLLUTION CONTROL VOL. X No. 2 September 2010 CONTENTS From the Editor’s Desk A Report from the Secretary Instructions for Authors for Submission of Manuscripts Contributed Papers 1. The 1984 Bhopal Accident: Causes and Consequences Sagar Dhara 1 2. Flouride Contamination in Ambient air around NALCO Aluminium Smelter in Augul, Orissa (India) Suman, Gurdeep Singh, Asim Kumar Pal 9 3. Pollutant Emissions from Road Vehicles in Mega-City Kolkata, India: Past and Present Trends B.R. Gurjar, A.S. Nagpure, Prashant Kumar, Nalin Sahni 18 4. Health Impacts and Status of BTEX in Air Rina Singh, Subhashree Adhikari, Anuradha Shukla, S. Gangopadhyay 31 5. Worst Case Scenario of Chlorine Gas M. Jeevananda Kumari, S. Kanmani 43 6. Measurement of On-Road Vehicle Emissions in Delhi Using Portable System: A Pilot Study Anuradha Shukla, Masood Alam 49 7. Analysis of Community Response towards Noise Pollution in Roorkee Rajeev Kumar Mishra, Manoranjan Parida, Santosh Rangnekar 59 8. SPM Assimilative Capacity Assessment of Mundra Taluka Mehjabin Z. Shaikh 68 9. Particulate Levels in Ambient Air inside a Residential Complex at Burla S. Sahoo, K.Dash, M. Mohanty. A. Bhoi, C.R. Mohanpatra, C.R. Mohanty 78 10. Size Characterization of Particulate Matter from a Kerbside in a Major Metropolis in India Sonali U. Deshmukh, Animesh Kumar 84 1. A Report on the Conference “Awareness and capacity Building in Sustainable Energy (ACBSE-2010)” Held on 6 th August, 2010 by Malti Goel 2. Deliberations and Recommendations of the Workshop Organized Jointly by IAAPC & ONGC on “Implementation of Standard & Guidelines in Oil Industry Sector” Held on Saturday 28 th August, 2010 3. List of Office Bearers of IAAPC Elected in the GB Meeting Held on 25th September, 2010 88 91 94 Indian Association for Air Pollution Control Published by: INDIAN ASSOCIATION FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL (Delhi Chapter) c/o Envirotech Instruments Pvt. Ltd. A-271, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi - 110020 E-mail: [email protected] ; [email protected]; Web site: www.iaapc.in

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Indian Journal of

AIR POLLUTION CONTROL

VOL. X No. 2 September 2010

CONTENTS

From the Editor’s Desk A Report from the Secretary Instructions for Authors for Submission of Manuscripts

Contributed Papers 1. The 1984 Bhopal Accident: Causes and Consequences

Sagar Dhara

1

2. Flouride Contamination in Ambient air around NALCO Aluminium Smelter in

Augul, Orissa (India)

Suman, Gurdeep Singh, Asim Kumar Pal

9

3. Pollutant Emissions from Road Vehicles in Mega-City Kolkata, India: Past and

Present Trends

B.R. Gurjar, A.S. Nagpure, Prashant Kumar, Nalin Sahni

18

4. Health Impacts and Status of BTEX in Air

Rina Singh, Subhashree Adhikari, Anuradha Shukla, S. Gangopadhyay

31

5. Worst Case Scenario of Chlorine Gas

M. Jeevananda Kumari, S. Kanmani

43

6. Measurement of On-Road Vehicle Emissions in Delhi Using Portable System:

A Pilot Study

Anuradha Shukla, Masood Alam

49

7. Analysis of Community Response towards Noise Pollution in Roorkee

Rajeev Kumar Mishra, Manoranjan Parida, Santosh Rangnekar

59

8. SPM Assimilative Capacity Assessment of Mundra Taluka

Mehjabin Z. Shaikh

68

9. Particulate Levels in Ambient Air inside a Residential Complex at Burla

S. Sahoo, K.Dash, M. Mohanty. A. Bhoi, C.R. Mohanpatra, C.R. Mohanty

78

10. Size Characterization of Particulate Matter from a Kerbside in a Major

Metropolis in India

Sonali U. Deshmukh, Animesh Kumar

84

1. A Report on the Conference “Awareness and capacity Building in

Sustainable Energy (ACBSE-2010)” Held on 6th

August, 2010 by Malti Goel

2. Deliberations and Recommendations of the Workshop Organized Jointly by

IAAPC & ONGC on “Implementation of Standard & Guidelines in Oil Industry

Sector” Held on Saturday 28th

August, 2010

3. List of Office Bearers of IAAPC Elected in the GB Meeting Held on

25th September, 2010

88

91

94

Indian Association for Air Pollution Control

Published by: INDIAN ASSOCIATION FOR AIR POLLUTION CONTROL (Delhi Chapter)

c/o Envirotech Instruments Pvt. Ltd. A-271, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi - 110020

E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; Web site: www.iaapc.in

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Pollutant Emissions from Road Vehicles in Mega-City Kolkata, India: Past and Present Trends

B. R. Gurjar

1,*, A. S. Nagpure

2, Prashant Kumar

3, Nalin Sahni

4

1Department of Civil Engineering, I. I. T., Roorkee -247667, India, [email protected] 2Centre for Transportation Systems, I. I. T., Roorkee -247667, India [email protected]

3Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Division of Civil, Chemical and Environmental Engineering, University of Surrey, Guildford GU2 7XH, UK, [email protected]

4School of Civil Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana-47907, USA,

[email protected] *Corresponding Author

Abstract Road vehicles are major sources of air pollutants in urban areas. Their impact on air quality is very large

in rapidly growing megacities like Kolkata (India). The aim of this study is to estimate the contribution of road vehicles towards various pollutants (e.g. CO2, CO, NOx, SPM, SO2 and VOCs) in Kolkata between

2000 and 2010. Two scenarios considering phasing out and non-phasing out of vehicles after their serving

age are considered. Distinguishable higher emissions were observed in emissions for non-phasing out

scenario compared to phasing out scenario. It has been further observed that CO and VOC emissions were

dominated by four wheeler petrol vehicles, while other pollutants were dominated by commercial diesel

vehicles in both the scenarios. Emission estimates for the year 2010 suggest a large increase in the phasing

out scenario considering continuous phasing out of old vehicles and maintaining same growth trends of

vehicle population, while during the same year emissions from non–phasing out scenario appear to

decrease due to automatic retirement of old vehicles and introduction of advanced technology. The study

concludes that external traffic load should be bypassed from the city as it contributes considerably to the

city pollution load. Also, the implementation of the phasing out laws for old vehicles should be effectively carried out to control the pollution load due to traffic.

Keywords: Emission inventory, Road transport, Vehicular emissions, megacity Kolkata

Introduction Transport sector is the major source of air pollution in the metropolitan cities of India (Gurjar et

al. 2004). The annual growth rate of motor vehicles in India has been around 10% during the last

decade. About 32% of these vehicles are plying in metropolitan cities, which constitute 11% of the total population of vehicles in India (Singh 2005). Leaving aside other mega cities of India,

the number of vehicles registered in Kolkata alone was 50,000 or so in 1951 that rose to around

500,000 in 1991 – a ten-fold rise when the population rose by 39% (Dutta 2001). However, the road space (matching with population density) in the Kolkata city is only 6%, compared with

23% in Delhi and 17% in Mumbai, which creates major traffic problems (Dutta 2001), although

Kolkata metro railway and a number of new roads and flyovers have decongested traffic to some

extent. Among motorized forms of transport, the city has buses, trams, autos (three wheelers),

taxis, metro, circular rail, water-ferries and local trains for public transport. For private transport

Kolkata has two wheelers and cars and commercial buses. The state has regular, special and executive fleets of buses. The private buses are categorized as ordinary, chartered, school buses

and minibuses. Besides, there are non-motorized forms of road transport like rickshaws and

bicycles. The average speed of the vehicles on road at present is 20 km h-1

. According to a study

Indian Journal of Air Pollution Control Vol. X No.2 September 2010 pp 18 to 30

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conducted by Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), New Delhi, the quantity of all the

three major air pollutants (namely CO, HC, and NOx) drastically increases with a reduction in motor vehicle speeds. For example, at a speed of 75 km h

–1, measured emission of CO was

found to be 6.4 gm veh–1

km–1

, which became 33.0 gm veh–1

km–1

at a speed of 10 km h–1

.

Similarly, measured emission of hydrocarbons increased by 4.8 times from 0.93 to 4.47 gm per

vehicle km–1

at the same vehicle speeds (Padam and Singh, 2004). The aims of this study are to quantify the vehicular emission loads in the mega-city

Kolkata for the period 2000-2005 and to estimate the emissions in the year 2010 considering the

technological advancements in vehicles. The study also aims to determine the changing trends in the levels of various air pollutants over this period due to the combination of several factors (e.g.

rising population, increasing travel demand and introduction of policy and technological

interventions). This study will help to identify the potential sources of various pollutants and effects of reforms already introduced to assist policy makers and modelers in developing future

control strategies. Once the cause for the rising levels of a particular pollutant is identified,

effective measures can be applied in a definite direction to control the pollution loads.

Methodology As suggested and applied by Gurjar et al. (2004), a spreadsheet model based on Eq. (1) that includes emission factor and activity based approach, has been used for calculating vehicular

emissions from road transport in Kolkata.

Ei = ∑ (Vehj × Dj) × E i,j km (1)

Where

Ei = Emission of pollutant (i) per km traveled by a vehicle Vehj = Number of vehicles of each type (j)

Dj = Distance travelled in a year by each type of vehicle (j)

Ei,j km = Emission of pollutant (i) by a vehicle type (j) per km traveled

Vehicle Population

The vehicle population for the period of 2000 to 2005 has been estimated for different vehicles

using the population data available in Auto Policy Report (Mashelkar et al. 2002). The population for the future years has been calculated by assuming geometric progression through

finding the yearly increase rate for different types of vehicles. Further, the study involves

emission calculations involving two scenarios i.e. with and without phasing out of vehicles according to the age. The number of newly registered vehicles for each year was found out.

Population of two wheeler vehicles was categorized into 2-stroke (2S) and 4 stroke (4S)

assuming a ratio of 8:1 for 2S:4S (Biswas 2006); this exercise was performed to study the

relative advantage of 4S two-wheelers over 2S two-wheelers. The ratio of cars to taxis was taken according to the percentage as 15.1% of the total number of cars and taxis on road (Mashelkar et

al., 2002). The percentage of external vehicles coming to Kolkata daily was calculated from the

available 2002 data (Mashelkar et al. 2002); this data was projected for future years to estimate the external population of vehicles and applied to correct the data.

The age-wise distribution of the vehicle population in Kolkata was also taken from Auto

Fuel Policy Report that was based on the fuel station surveys conducted in 2002 (Mashelkar et al. 2002). This distribution was assumed to be constant for the period 2001–2005. The average

age of different vehicles was taken from the study of (Mittal and Sharma 2003). The vehicle

utilization factors (km traveled per day per vehicle type) were adapted from the fuel station

surveys reported in Auto Fuel Policy Report (Table 1).

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Table 1: Utilization Factors for Different Types of Vehicle

Vehicle Type km/day

Cars/Jeeps 52.6

Taxis 77.89 2 Wheelers 25.1

Auto 97.72

Buses 80.2

LCV 45.5 HCV 45.5

Note: Auto=Three wheelers; LCV=Light commercial vehicle; HCV=Heavy commercial vehicle

Emission Factors It was hard to find the emission factors for Kolkata vehicles for a range of pollutants (CO2, CO,

NOx, SPM, SO2, VOC) considering driving conditions and control measures. Earlier studies,

e.g., Das and Parikh (2004) and Jalihal and Reddy (2006), have simply taken the norms introduced by CPCB as emission factors, but such calculations underestimate the emissions as

the actual driving condition on Kolkata roads are not as ideal as considered in the norms.

Therefore, to make realistic estimates, we compiled the emission factors for different types of vehicles and pollutants from a range of sources that consider several factors such as condition of

the road, load on vehicles, acceleration, speed cycle, and maintenance of vehicles. A detailed

comprehensive list is given in Table 2.

Further, deterioration factors (related to age of vehicles) were applied to correct the emission factors for different age categories of vehicles (Mashelkar et al. 2002). The emission

loads for a particular pollutant were computed through Eq. (1) that uses the product of vehicle

utilization factors with number of vehicles in each age-group category and corresponding emission factors for that category.

Two Scenarios

Pollution estimations were carried out in two scenarios (i.e. with and without implementing the phasing out rules of the vehicles). In each case, the population of different types of vehicles

varies. Emission factors that are to be multiplied with the population of vehicles over a certain

period have been selected as given in Table 2. Total emissions (in Gg/yr) over a particular period have been thus estimated by considering the above two factors.

Table 2: Emission Factors for the Various Vehicle Types Used for Emission Estimations

Vehicle Year CO2 CO SO2 NOx SPM VOC

2W2S Pre 1995 26.6d,f

8.3c 0.05

c.f 0.7

h 0.5

c.f,g 5

c,f,g

1990-2000 26.6d,f

5a 0.05

c.f 0.1

a,c 0.5

c.f,g 5

c,f,g

2001-05 26.6d 2.4

a 0.05

c.f 0.1

a,c 0.5

c.f,g 5

c,f,g

2006-10 26.6d 1.4

b 0.05

c.f 0.07

b 0.05

b 5

c,f,g

2W4S Pre 1995 28.3d 6.49

a 0.03

c.f 0.7

h 0.08

c 0.72

c

1996-2000 28.3d 2.6

b 0.03

c.f 0.39

c 0.08

c 0.72

c

2001-05 28.3d 2.2

b 0.03

c.f 0.39

c 0.08

c 0.72

c

2006-10 28.3d 2.4

b 0.3

b 0.05

b

3W Pre 1995 60.3d,f

14b 0.1

c.f 0.1

c.f 0.5

c.f,g 8

c,f,g

1996-2000 60.3d,f

12.25c 0.1

c.f 0.1

c.f 0.5

c.f,g 8

c,f,g

2001-05 60.3d 5.2

d 0.1

c.f 0.26

a,g 0.5

c.f,g 8

c,f,g

2006-10 60.3d 2.45

b 0.12

b 0.08

b

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4WG Pre 1995 223.6d,f

25 f,g,d

0.22f 3.2

d,h 0.25

c 4

i,f

1996-2000 223.6d,f

9.5c 0.22

f 1.9

c 0.25

c 4

i,f

2001-05 223.6d 2.6

e,c 0.14

c,e 0.6

c,e 0.08

c,e 2.5

i,e,f

2006-10 223.6d 1.39

b 0.12

b 0.02

b

4WD Pre 1995 208.3d,f

7.3 b 0.99

h 2.77

c 0.6

c.f 0.28

c,f,g

1996-2000 208.3d,f

2d 0.99

h 1.14

a 0.6

c.f 0.28

c,f,g

2001-05 208.3d 1.1

c 0.93

c.f,e 0.56

a 0.6

c.f 0.28

c,f,g

2006-10 208.3d 0.5

b 0.5

b 0.05

b

Bus /

Truck

Pre 1995 515.1d,f

12.7 a,c

5f 21

a,c.f 1.15

f,g 1.6

c,f,g

1996-2000 515.1d,f

4.7d,f,g

5f 21

a,c.f 1.15

f,g 1.6

c,f,g

2001-05 515.2d 4.7

d,f,g 2.5

c,e 21

a,c.f 1.15

f,g 1.6

c,g,f

2006-10 515.2d 1.4 (.5)

b 4.9(2.45)(0.025)

b 0.22

b

aTaken from Gargava (2001)

b Sibal and Sachdeva (2001), CAI (2007)(2007) and Iyer (2007)

c Taken from Bose (1999)

d Taken from Mittal and Sharma (2003). Note that given values are more than the norms

e EURO I norms introduced in the year 2000 for cars (unleaded petrol was introduced in 1996

and leaded fuel phased out in 1998, so it is assumed that 2001 onwards the cars were meeting

the Euro I standards) f Taken from

Gurjar et al. (2004)

g Taken from

Kandlikar and Ramachandran (2000)

h Taken from

Goyal and Rama Krishna (1998)

i Values are for the post 1984 period [Gurjar et al. (2004)]

Results and Discussions Figures 1 to 6 show total emissions of CO2, CO, SO2, NOx, SPM and VOCs, respectively for

phasing out and non–phasing out periods between 2000 and 2010. As expected, results show a

considerable lower emissions in phasing out scenario compared with non-phasing out scenario.

Pollutants specific discussion is presented in the subsequent sections.

CO2 Emissions

The emission trends of non-phasing out scenario for CO2 emission shows an increase from 4586 Gg in 2000 to 5590 Gg in 2005 (Figure 1a). This increase is in accordance to the increase in the

registered number of vehicles in each year. However strangely enough, estimated emissions for

the year 2010 are less (4513 Gg) than that for the year 2005. This may be due to the introduction of advanced technology for the ever increasing registered new vehicles and the automatic

retirement of old vehicles. Estimated emissions in the phasing out scenario for the period

between 2000 and 2005 although are lower in magnitude compared to the non-phasing scenario,

but still show an increase from 2763 to 3570 Gg during this period, a trend that has been observed even for the year 2010 (Figure 1b).

Contribution of different vehicle types towards CO2 emissions has shown almost the same

percentage in both the phasing out and non-phasing out scenarios during the period 2000–2005 (Figure 1a, b). In both scenarios, contribution of HCVs is the highest (36–40% of total CO2)

among all vehicle categories, followed by the cars (26–27%). Two wheelers and three wheelers

contribute the least among all vehicle categories. Interestingly slight differences were observed

in contributions of buses in phasing out (17%) and non–phasing out (14%) scenarios.

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Figure 1: CO2 Emissions in (a) Non–phasing out, and (b) Phasing out Scenarios.

CO Emissions

CO emissions show an increasing trend in the non–phasing out scenario from 239 Gg in 2000 to

257 Gg in 2005 (Figure 2a). Emissions declined from 2005 to 2010 because of phasing out of 25

year old vehicles and consideration of lower emission factors due to technological advancement (Figure 2a). The phasing out scenario also shows an increase in CO emissions between 2000

and 2005 (124 to 127 Gg). This may be mainly due to the increase in the number of new

vehicles. A decrease in the emission rate was seen in the year 2010 (111Gg) (see Figure 2b). As expected, emissions are in general less in the phasing out scenario as compared to those in the

non-phasing out scenario because of regular shunting process of the vehicles from the road by

local authorities. The percentage contribution of different vehicle types to total CO emissions during the

years 2000 to 2005 are nearly similar in both the scenarios. However total emissions from

phasing out scenario were 45-51% less than in the non-phasing out scenario. Cars contribute

highest CO emissions in both phasing out (41–48%) and non–phasing out (47–50%) scenarios during 2000-2005. HCVs are the second largest contributor in both phasing out (15–18%) and

non–phasing out (16–18%) scenarios, followed by three wheelers (12–15% and 08-10% in

phasing and non–phasing out scenarios, respectively) and 2S two wheelers (10-11% and 11% in phasing and non–phasing out scenarios, respectively.

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Figure 2: CO Emissions in (a) Non–phasing out, and (b) Phasing out Scenarios

SO2 Emissions

As seen in Figure 3a, SO2 emission in the non–phasing out scenario shows a similar trend as that of CO emissions. Emissions of SO2 increased from 31 Gg in 2000 to 34 Gg in 2005, but reduced

further to about 21 Gg in the year 2010. Reasons identical to CO emissions for the observed

trend have been found in the case of SO2 (see Section 3.2). Similar emission trends in the case of non-phasing scenario have been noticed i.e., a steady increase until 2005, with a slight decrease

in the year 2010 (Figure 3). Approximately 19 Gg of SO2 emissions were estimated in the year

2000 in case of phasing out scenario which increased to 21 Gg in 2005, but reduced to about 20

Gg in 2010 (Figure 3b). Among all the vehicle categories, HCVs accounted to about 54 to 58% of SO2 emissions

in both scenarios, followed by buses in phasing out (24–25%) and non–phasing (20–21%) out

scenarios. LCV is observed as the next largest contributor, followed by taxis and cars. The contribution from the two wheelers and three wheelers are the lowest in both the scenarios

(Figure 3).

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Figure 3: SO2 Emissions in (a) Non–phasing out, and (b) Phasing out Scenarios.

NOx Emissions

Continuous increase in NOx emissions was observed in non-phasing out scenario until 2005 (137 Gg in 2000 and 157 Gg in 2005), followed by a decrease of about 48% from 2005 to 2010

(Figure 4a). The probable reason might be the retirement of old age vehicles and introduction of

reduced emission factors based on new engine technology. Similar trend has been noticed for phasing out scenario. Emission of NOx has increased from 83 Gg in 2000 to 101 Gg in 2005

with a decrease of 21% from 2005 to 2010 (Figure 4). The decreasing trend between 2005 and

2010 in both the scenarios may be presumably due to the low emissions factors during this period.

HCVs were found to be the largest contributor of NOx (53 to 54%) emissions in both

phasing out and non-phasing out scenario (Figure 4). After HCVs, buses emerged as the second

largest contributor in phasing out (22-25%) and non–phasing out (19-21%) scenarios. This is followed by LCVs and cars. The contribution of NOx emissions from cars were noticed to be

decreasing from 12% in 2000 to about 8% in 2005 in phasing out scenario as opposed to only

1% changes in non–phasing out scenario (Figure 4).

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Figure 4: NOx Emissions in (a) Non–phasing out, and (b) Phasing out Scenarios.

Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM) Emissions

SPM emissions also increased from 11 Gg in 2000 to 14 Gg in 2005 and declined by about 37% thereafter (9 Gg) in 2010. This is basically due to exclusion of old vehicles (i.e. registered before

1985) and the lower emission factor norms used between 2005 and 2010 (Figure 5a). SPM

emissions were less in phasing out scenario compared to non-phasing out scenario. This is influenced by the lesser number of vehicles considered for calculations and the substantially

reduced emission factors for the various periods in the phasing out scenario (Figure 5b).

HCVs seem to dominate the SPM emissions in both phasing and non–phasing out scenarios with their contribution decreasing from 36% in 2000 to 33% in 2005 followed by two

wheelers (15–16% and 16–18%) and buses (15–16% and 12–13%) in both the phasing and non–

phasing out scenarios respectively (Figure 5).

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Figure 5: SPM emissions in (a) non–phasing out, and (b) phasing out scenarios.

VOC Emissions

VOC emissions showed a continuously increasing trend between 2000 and 2010 in the non–phasing out scenario, with the rate of increase relatively small during the period 2005-2010

(Figure 6a). Similar trend was noticed in the phasing out scenario, but the rate of increase was

almost the same for both 2000-2005 and 2005-2010 periods (Figure 6b).

Contribution of three wheelers towards VOC emissions was the largest (23–32%) in phasing out scenario while car emissions dominated (31-35%) the non–phasing out scenario.

The contribution of cars decreased over the period 2000–2005, but the contribution of three

wheelers kept on increasing in both the scenarios (Figure 6a, b). Interestingly, contribution of two wheelers remained almost the same in both the scenarios.

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Figure 6: VOC Emissions in (a) Non–phasing out, and (b) Phasing out Scenarios.

Comparison of Measured and Estimated Emissions to Asses Air Quality Trends

Figure 7 shows annual changes in measured SO2, NOx and SPM concentrations in ambient air in Kolkata between 2000 and 2005; this data has been taken from the Central Pollution Control

Board, New Delhi. Note that the data presented in Figure 7 shows ambient concentrations (g m

–3) taken on two residential and one industrial site whereas we have estimated total annual

emissions (Gg) from all road vehicles. However, Figure 7 provides us an opportunity to compare

the overall trend of measured emissions with our estimates during the previous years. Drastic decrease has been noticed in the concentrations of SPM between 2000 and 2001; thereafter a

continuous increase was noticed till 2005 (Figure 7). This trend of measured concentrations was

somewhat followed by estimated SPM emissions for both phasing out and non–phasing out scenarios (Figure 5).

Ambient air concentration of NOx increased substantially between 2000 and 2001

whereas a decreasing trend was observed after 2002. This trend is just opposite to our estimated

emission trend. Possible reasons could be; i) the contribution of various other sources (e.g. industrial and domestic emissions) to NOx emissions that are not included in our emission

estimates, and ii) role of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry (since NOx is a precursor of

Ozone and secondary aerosols), which are beyond the scope of the present study. The SO2 concentrations shown in Figure 7 are nearly identical in different years as

opposed to our estimates showing a small but continuous increase until 2005. An important

reason behind this dissimilarity could be that the data presented in Figure 7 is site specific (includes only three sites i.e. two residential and one industrial) whereas our estimates provides

actual conditions of transportation emission over the entire city.

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Figure 7: Air Quality Trends in Kolkata during 2000-2005. The Measured Data have been

taken from Central Pollution Control Board, New Delhi.

Limitations & Further Scope of the Study Our methodology accompanied a number of limitations due to non-availability of detailed

vehicle population and emission factor data. Vehicle population data was available only for the

year 2002, so the vehicle population for the rest of the years has been projected based on geometric progression. Furthermore, the percentage of external population was available only

for the year 2002 and we assumed it constant for the rest of the years. The category wise data for

2S and 4S two wheelers was not available and the division was done assuming a ratio specified by (Biswas 2006). The vehicle utilization factors were also assumed to be constant for the five

year period ignoring the rising travel demand in the country. Besides this, selection of emission

factors from a range of different sources can also generate uncertainty in calculations. Some of

the values were adapted from the norms in the absence of any other source which would be an underestimation of the condition that actually exists on Kolkata roads. Nevertheless, the

assumptions used for emission estimates are substantiated by published literature, providing a

realistic chance for such estimates despite odd availability of required data.

Conclusion Emissions of all the considered pollutants, except VOCs and CO, from vehicles in Kolkata were mainly from the high population of the commercial goods vehicles and the buses, though the

contribution of the cars and taxis was also considerable. Since commercial vehicles and buses

contribute considerable pollutant emissions, it points out the need for bypassing of external traffic that currently passes through Kolkata. The ever increasing demand of personal vehicles

also contributes substantially towards emissions of CO, VOCs and other pollutants. Thus, there

is a need to improve the mass transit system in the city. As the contribution of diesel buses is

quite large, introduction of CNG mass transit in the megacity could be considered. Our results also show that the estimated emissions for all the pollutants are much higher for the non-phasing

out scenario of vehicles. Therefore, the government of West Bengal should consider introducing

effective laws for phasing out the vehicles and an arrangement to make sure that these laws are

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implemented. Given that the development of Kolkata keeps on continuously increasing, there is

a great potential in the increase of vehicle population in future. This can subsequently lead to increased level of pollutant emissions and associated health problems. Therefore, focused efforts

are needed to implement various norms and laws in the stringent manner besides creating

awareness in the general public.

Acknowledgments This research work has been supported by the Max Planck Society and Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Germany, through the Max Planck Partner Group for Megacities & Global Change

at IIT Roorkee (India). We thank Ms. Vandana Tyagi and Dr. Ragini Kumari for their valuable

suggestions.

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