Indian Equities - Time-In or Timing?

STRATEGY | March 2016 March 2016

Indian Equities – Time-In or Timing?

Definition of InvestingM

ar-7

9

Mar

-81

Mar

-83

Mar

-85

Mar

-87

Mar

-89

Mar

-91

Mar

-93

Mar

-95

Mar

-97

Mar

-99

Mar

-01

Mar

-03

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-05

Mar

-07

Mar

-09

Mar

-11

Mar

-13

Mar

-150

20

40

60

80

100

120

5.6

INR100 of 1979 can only buy goods “worth” INR

5.6 today!

After factoring in the Consumer Price In-

flation Index

100

2

Mar

-79

Mar

-81

Mar

-83

Mar

-85

Mar

-87

Mar

-89

Mar

-91

Apr-

93

Apr-

95

Apr-

97

Apr-

99

Apr-

01

Apr-

03

Apr-

05

May

-07

May

-09

May

-11

May

-13

May

-15 50

70

90

110

130

150

Purc

hasin

g Po

wer

104

100

Fixed deposit would have preserved your Purchasing Power

3

4

Mar

-79

Mar

-81

Mar

-83

Mar

-85

Mar

-87

Mar

-89

Mar

-91

Apr-

93

Apr-

95

Apr-

97

Apr-

99

Apr-

01

Apr-

03

Apr-

05

May

-07

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-09

May

-11

May

-13

May

-15 50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Purc

hasin

g Po

wer

214

100

Gold would have doubled your Purchasing Power

5

Mar

-79

Mar

-81

Mar

-83

Mar

-85

Mar

-87

Mar

-89

Mar

-91

Apr-

93

Apr-

95

Apr-

97

Apr-

99

Apr-

01

Apr-

03

Apr-

05

May

-07

May

-09

May

-11

May

-13

May

-150

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

Purc

hasin

g Po

wer

1,567

Equities would have multiplied your Purchasing Power 15x

Mar

-79

Mar

-81

Mar

-83

Mar

-85

Mar

-87

Mar

-89

Mar

-91

Apr-

93

Apr-

95

Apr-

97

Apr-

99

Apr-

01

Apr-

03

Apr-

05

May

-07

May

-09

May

-11

May

-13

May

-150

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000Sensex Sensex cum Dividend Fixed Deposit Gold

Nom

inal

Val

ue

If you had invested Rs100 ...

Over the last 100 years -- > S&P 500 rose 273x -->Include dividends, it rose 18,520x!

47,682

27,828

3,808

1,842

6

Key Objectives of Investing: Over 36 years --> 18x Vs 38x Vs 476x

7

Macros: Read, Discussed, Debated Threadbare!

Feb-07: Rising default rate hits

subprime mortgage industry in US

Jan-

07

Jun-

07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Aug-

08

Jan-

09

Jun-

09

Nov

-09

Apr-

10

Sep-

10

Feb-

11

Jul-1

1

Dec-

11

May

-12

Oct

-12

Mar

-13

Jul-1

3

Dec-

13

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-155,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Sensex Index

Feb-07: Rising default rate hits sub-

prime mortgage industry

in US

Oct-09: Greece public finance weakness re-

vealed triggering sovereign

debt crisis

Aug-11: S&P down-grades US Sovereign

Sep-14: Brent crude goes below USD100/bbl

Mar-15: Taper tantrum II

(FED rate hike fear)

Dec-14: Rouble tumbles

Sep-08: US Govern-ment takes over Fannie Mae and

Freddie Mac, Merril Lynch sold to BoA, Lehman Brothers

collapse

May-10: 750b Euro Stabilization package to PIIGS

countries

8

Macros push you out of Time-in & into TIMING

9

Stocks are SLAVES OF EARNINGS

Knowable but Unimportant

Important & Knowable

Unknowable & Unimportant

Important But Unknowable

UNIMPORTANT IMPORTANT

KNOWABLE

UNKNOWABLE

1984-2013 S&P 500 returned 11.1% CAGR Avg returns earned by investors in Equity mutual funds was

a paltry 3.7%!!

Bond Index returned 7.7% CAGR Avg returns earned by investors in Bond funds was a paltry

0.7%!!

10

Earnings growth / Stock Returns captured by -->Time-In & Not Timing, stupid!

11

The most powerful concept of Finance

The most powerful concept of Finance -> The idea that a $ saved today will grow to be worth more than a $ tomorrow

The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function

DID YOU KNOW -> It's hard to believe that $65.7 billion of Warren Buffett's $66 billion net worth came after his 50th birthday. But it did.

He who understands it, earns it…He who doesn’t…pays it! - Albert Einstein

12

Compound Interest: The Eighth Wonder of World

STRATEGY | March 2016 13

INDIAN EQUITIES – TIME IN OR TIMING?India Macro The missing "G" (QLP are in place!)

India Corporate The worst is behind

India Valuations Quite reasonable

India Flows The tide has turned

India Outlook Best is ahead


Macro: On a very strong footingGovernment steadfast on the fiscal consolidation roadmap CAD-GDP ruling well within sustainable level of 3%

Comfortable forex reserves built up while allowing INR to depreciate nominally

Inflation came down to decadal lows; deflationary condition prevails for the wholesale prices

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

-2.8 -2.6

-4.2

-4.7

-1.7-1.4

-0.7 -0.7

CAD/GDP (%)

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

6.5

4.9

5.9

4.9 4.44.1 3.9

3.5

Fiscal deficit (Centre, %)

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

12.410.5 10.5 10.2 9.5

6.04.9

3.53.6

9.6 8.97.4

6.0

2.0-2.5 0.3

CPI Inflation (YoY%) WPI Inflation (YoY%)

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

279 305 294 293 304 341 351 360

4746

48

54

60 61

65 67Forex reserves INR


Growth: Is the only missing linkNominal GDP growth has collapsed Witnessing deflation (nominal GDP near real) first time in four

decades

New projects have dried up, moderate increase in projects under implementation

Real indicators of volume growth of industrial production remains weak

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

15.1

20.2

15.7

13.9 13.3

10.8

8.6

Nominal GDP growth (YoY%)

FY60

FY62

FY64

FY66

FY68

FY70

FY72

FY74

FY76

FY78

FY80

FY82

FY84

FY86

FY88

FY90

FY92

FY94

FY96

FY98

FY00

FY02

FY04

FY06

FY08

FY10

FY12

FY14

FY16

-5

0

5

10

15

20

40 years!

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

11.08.6

12.915.5

2.5

5.3

8.2

2.91.1

-0.1

2.8 2.7

IIP (YoY%)

Jun-

10Se

p-10

Dec-

10M

ar-1

1Ju

n-11

Sep-

11De

c-11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12Se

p-12

Dec-

12M

ar-1

3Ju

n-13

Sep-

13De

c-13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14Se

p-14

Dec-

14M

ar-1

5Ju

n-15

Sep-

15De

c-15

-2500

0

2500

5000

New projectsIncrease in under implementation projects


Government: Once in a lifetime leadership change Government attempting a non-inflationary supply boost while ensuring a safety net

Some more measures in the offingImproving “Doing Business” was a key focus of the government

Topics DB 2015 Rank DB 2016 RankStarting a Business 164 155Dealing with Construction Permits 184 183Getting Electricity 99 70Registering Property 138 138Getting Credit 36 42Protecting Minority Investors 8 8Paying Taxes 156 157Trading Across Borders 133 133Enforcing Contracts 178 178Resolving Insolvency 136 136

21% increase in capital outlay in

FY17 Budget

Passage of Real Estate

Regulatory Bill

Key bills in the offing

include GST, Bankruptcy code,

National Waterways bill,


RBI: Has gained credibility globallyFive focus areas of RBI REER tended to appreciate during Rajan's tenure

Expect 100bp cut in policy rates by FY17INR emerged strongest EM currency in 2015

Low inflation

Improved transmission

Stable currency

Financial stability

Clean up of banks

Apr-

11Ju

n-11

Aug-

11O

ct-1

1De

c-11

Feb-

12Ap

r-12

Jun-

12Au

g-12

Oct

-12

Dec-

12Fe

b-13

Apr-

13Ju

n-13

Aug-

13O

ct-1

3De

c-13

Feb-

14Ap

r-14

Jun-

14Au

g-14

Oct

-14

Dec-

14Fe

b-15

Apr-

15Ju

n-15

Aug-

15O

ct-1

5De

c-15

Feb-

16

95

100

105

110

115

120REER

Dr. Rajan as-sumes office

Jan-

13M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

l-13

Sep-

13N

ov-1

3Ja

n-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4Se

p-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15M

ar-1

5M

ay-1

5Ju

l-15

Sep-

15N

ov-1

5Ja

n-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6Se

p-16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17M

ar-1

74

6

8

10

8.00

7.25

8.00

7.75

7.25

6.75

5.75

Repo Rate

INR

CNY

SGD

THB

IDR

MYR

RUB

ZAR

-4.4 -4.6-7.1

-9.5 -9.9

-22.8-25.0

-34.2

2015


Global & Domestic cyclicals: Earnings collapse PAT (INR b)

85% fall from peak

58% fall from peak

48% fall from peak

33% fall from peak


But, diversity of corporate India has come to rescuePAT (INR b)

230% rise 164% rise

130% rise 214% rise


Share of global cyclicals decline to a new lowPAT share down to multi-year low

Defensive includes Consumer, Healthcare, Technology, Telecom and UtilitiesGlobal cyclicals includes Metals, Oil & Gas and JLRDomestic cyclicals includes Automobiles, Banks, Capital Goods, Cement, Media, NBFCs, Real Estate and Retail

36 40 38 36 33 37 37 36 35 37 38 32

42

36 25 2638 43 37 36 34 31 28 24

25 19

28 24 25 25 30 34 35 39

4540

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%M

ar-0

8Ju

ne-0

8Se

p-08

Dec-

08M

ar-0

9Ju

ne-0

9Se

p-09

Dec-

09M

ar-1

0Ju

ne-1

0Se

p-10

Dec-

10M

ar-1

1Ju

ne-1

1Se

p-11

Dec-

11M

ar-1

2Ju

ne-1

2Se

p-12

Dec-

12M

ar-1

3Ju

ne-1

3Se

p-13

Dec-

13M

ar-1

4Ju

ne-1

4Se

p-14

Dec-

14M

ar-1

5Ju

ne-1

5Se

p-15

Dec-

15M

ar-1

6E

Defensives

Global cyclicals

Domestic cyclicals


Corporate Profit to GDP has halvedCorporate Profit to GDP (%)

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

4.7

5.4

6.2

7.3

7.8

5.5 6.5

6.2

4.94.6

4.3

4.03.9

Average of 5.5%


And Corporate profitability has collapsed

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

16.3 16.3 16.4

17.2

16.1

14.314.8 14.6

13.1

12.5

11.9

11.6 11.0

Corporate PAT Margin (%)

Average :14.3%

STRATEGY | March 2016

26 23

42

52

82 83

103

55

9588

7164 66

81

68

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

Average of 66% for the period

23

Markets valuations below averages, on lowest marginsSensex P/E (x) Sensex P/B (x)

Market Cap to GDP (%)Trend in India's contribution to world market cap (%)

4.2

1.6

2.5

1.5

2.2

2.9

3.6

4.3

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

10 Year Avg: 2.7x

24.6

10.7

15.8

9

13

17

21

25

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

Mar

-15

Mar

-16

10 Year Avg: 16.7x

3.03.3

1.6

2.2

0.75

1.50

2.25

3.00

3.75

Feb

-06

Aug

-06

Jan

-07

Jun

-07

Nov

-07

Apr-

08O

ct-0

8M

ar-0

9Au

g-0

9Ja

n-1

0Ju

n-1

0De

c-1

0M

ay-1

1O

ct-1

1M

ar-1

2Au

g-1

2Ja

n-1

3Ju

l-13

Dec

-13

May

-14

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

Sep

-15

Feb

-16

India's Contribution to World Mcap (%)

Average of 2.3%


What drove FII selling: Downgrades + Valuation + OverweightTrend in Sensex EPS Revision FY14 Trend in Sensex EPS Revision FY15

Trend in Sensex EPS Revision FY16

11% downgrade

1,76

6

1,79

3

1,83

6

1,85

4

1,87

5

1,86

6

1,76

1

1,69

8

1,66

2

1,60

5

1,56

1

1,51

5

1,47

1

1,43

5

1,36

6

1,33

2

16.317.5

20.5 21.0 21.4 22.1 19.9 19.7 18.4 18.515.3

11.98.7

6.00.9

-1.6

Dec 13

Mar 14

June 14

Aug 14

Sep 14

Nov 14

Dec 14

Feb 15

Mar 15

May 15

June 15

Aug 15

Sep 15

Nov 15

Dec 15

Feb 16

FY16 EPS (INR) FY16 EPS Growth YoY (%)

24% downgrade

MSCI India v/s EM P/E premium/Discount (%)

84

0

25

50

75

100

125

Feb-

06Au

g-06

Feb-

07Au

g-07

Feb-

08Au

g-08

Feb-

09Au

g-09

Feb-

10Au

g-10

Feb-

11Au

g-11

Feb-

12Au

g-12

Feb-

13Au

g-13

Feb-

14Au

g-14

Feb-

15Au

g-15

Feb-

16

MSCI India Vs EM PE Premium (%)

Average of 58%


Crystal ball gazing the FutureShort term hazy, Long term clear


Case for India emerging as an asset class22 34 59 15

5 301 465

475

494

524

618

721

834

948 1,

239

1,22

61,

366

1,70

81,

879

1,82

81,

864

2,04

22,

074

2,24

92,

453

2,70

22,

976

3,27

83,

611 3,97

7

FY51

FY60

FY70

FY80

FY90

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

EFY

17E

FY18

EFY

19E

FY20

EFY

21E

FY22

EFY

23E

1st US$ tn

2nd US$ tn7 years

58 years

3rd US$ tn

4th US$ tn3 years

5 years

The Next Trillion Dollar opportunityIndia GDP trend (USD B)

FY51-08: 7.3% CAGRFY08-15: 7.4% CAGR

Top 10 GDP countries

Rank CountryDec 2015 GDP (USD

b)

1 United States 17,968

2 China 11,385

3 Japan 4,116

4 Germany 3,371

5 United Kingdom 2,865

6 France 2,423

7 India 2,183

8 Italy 1,819

9 Brazil 1,800

10 Canada 1,573

India GDP (USD b)


Domestic buying would dwarf FII flowsTrend in DII Flows (USDb)

0.3 0.13.2

6.4

17.713.1

5.1

-4.1-0.9

-12.7-8.9

-3.7

13.7 11.8 13.3 14.9 16.7

0.4 0.2 3.3 6.0 12.3 10.5 3.1 -2.4 -0.7 -9.7 -6.6 -2.3 7.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E

DII Flows (USD b) DII as % to Financial Savings

USD 28bAvg DII/FS of 4.4%

USD -12bAvg DII/FS of 1.2%

DII as % to Financial Savings


Sub-par earnings growth for 8 years nowSensex EPS: Rebound in FY16-18 with 19% CAGR Versus 6% CAGR during FY08-16

FY93

FY94

FY95

FY96

FY97

FY98

FY99

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

81 129 181250 266 291 278 280

216 236 272361

446540

720 833 820 8341,024

1,1201,182

1,338 1,3541,332

1,550

1,890

FY93-96: 45% CAGR

FY96-03: 1% CAGR

FY03-08: 25% CAGR

FY08-16:6% CAGR

FY16-18E: 19% CAGR

FY93-FY15: 14% CAGR


Corporate Profit to GDP has hit the bottomFY

04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

4.7

5.4

6.2

7.37.8

5.5

6.5

6.2

4.9

4.6

4.34.0

3.9

4.29508747428241

4.69017494856481

5.08526242284723

5.48034989712963

4.55940293552705

5.21880587105411

5.87820880658116

6.6

Corp Profit to GDP (%) Average Average Plus

Corporate Profit to GDPAverage: 5.5%Average Plus: 6.6%High:7.8%


REVERSION TO MEAN = 24% EPS CAGR

Note: Nominal GDP Growth & Sales Growth estimate of 11-12% in FY17-FY20

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E0

900

1,800

2,700

3,600

4,50036

1 446 54

0

720 83

3

820 83

4

1,02

4 1,12

0

1,18

2 1,33

8

1,35

4

1,33

2

1672.045933965

2081.14602113218

2571.95993617175

3159.34051222233

1823.08507764202

2443.03784321804

3221.54462378585

4194.67538568568

Sensex EPS (INR) Average Average Plus

24% CAGR

33% CAGR


And stocks are slaves of earnings!Sensex Index

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E5,000

25,000

45,000

65,000

85,000

5,59

1

6,49

3 11,2

80 13,0

72

15,6

44

9,70

9

17,5

28

19,4

45

17,4

04

18,8

36 22,3

86 27,9

57

24,8

04

30657.9989043531

37563.3874853518

45686.0648737402

55215.4421470222

34232.0683959918

46251.9248228156

61490.4990046237

80715.6563185348

Average Average Plus

22% CAGR

34% CAGR

39% CAGR

6% CAGR

Trailing PEAverage: 17.5xAverage Plus: 19.2xHigh:25.2x


Corporate Profit Margins have hit the bottom

Note: Nominal GDP Growth & Sales Growth estimate of 11-12% in FY17-FY20

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E

8.0

11.0

14.0

17.0

20.0

16.3 16.3 16.4

17.2

16.1

14.3

14.814.6

13.1

12.511.9

11.6

11.0

11.8275494722137

12.65528187120513.4830142701962

14.3107466691875

12.1856702301035

13.3715233869847

14.5573765438658

15.7432297007469


Corporate PAT MarginAverage: 14.3%Average Plus: 15.7%High:17.2%


REVERSION TO MEAN = 25% EPS CAGR

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,00036

1 446 54

0

720 83

3

820 83

4

1,02

4 1,12

0

1,18

2 1,33

8

1,35

4

1,33

2

1670.38941011315

2084.48952223047

2590.11965250499

3206.26981092494

1869.90898460108

2600.18930275587

3587.23828850877

4916.1369706205

Sensex EPS (INR) Average Average Plus

25% CAGR

39% CAGR


And stocks are slaves of earnings!

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E5,000

25,000

45,000

65,000

85,000

105,0005,

591

6,49

3 11,2

80 13,0

72

15,6

44

9,70

9 17,5

28

19,4

45

17,4

04

18,8

36

22,3

86 27,9

57

24,8

04

30627.6255124484

37623.7355945365

46008.6383193143

56035.6202720106

35111.2808942167

49227.1376352234

68470.593509792

94598.3146847448


23% CAGR

40% CAGR

39% CAGR

6% CAGR

Trailing PEAverage: 17.5xAverage Plus: 19.2xHigh:25.2x


Applied to Nifty, results are similarCorporate Profit to GDP (%) Scenarios of Nifty EPS

Scenarios of Indian Markets - Nifty

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E

4.7

5.4

6.2

7.3 7.8

5.5

6.56.2

4.94.6

4.34.0

3.9

4.29508747428241

4.69017494856481

5.08526242284723

5.480349897129634.559402935

52705

5.21880587105411

5.87820880658116

6.6

Corp Profit to GDP (%) Average Average Plus

Corporate Profit to GDPAverage: 5.5%Average Plus: 6.6%High:7.8%

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E

131

169

184

236 28

1

251

247

315 34

7

365 401

410

394

494.746364689856

615.796137790467

761.024444783918

934.826132158222539.4377608

66318

722.877324826633

953.231881330336

1241.17427396312

Nifty EPS (INR) Average Average Plus

24% CAGR

33% CAGR

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E

1,77

2

2,03

6

3,40

3

3,82

2

4,73

5

3,02

1

5,24

9

5,83

4

5,29

6

5,68

3

6,70

4

8,49

1

7,53

9

9624.41389241722

11596.7698101675

13859.0821737487

16443.60666726711121.0160761

716

14874.0857895898

19576.0550041399

25440.0930852341


22% CAGR

36% CAGR

37% CAGR

6% CAGR


Applied to Nifty, results are similarCorporate PAT Margin (%) Scenarios of Nifty EPS

Scenarios of Indian Markets - Nifty

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E

16.3

16.3

16.417.2

16.1

14.3

14.8 14.6

13.1

12.511.9

11.6

11.0

11.8275494722137

12.655281871205

13.4830142701962

14.3107466691875

12.0399278889956

13.0800387047689

14.1201495205422

15.1602603363154


Corporate PAT MarginAverage: 14.3%Average Plus: 15.7%High:17.2%

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E

131

169

184

236 28

1

251

247

315 34

7

365 401

410

394

494.256211197613

616.785455715358

766.397774222523

948.712174077838

546.675160083288

752.605721810956

1029.55799143864

1400.78411858517

Nifty EPS (INR) Average Average Plus

25% CAGR

37% CAGR

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

E

FY17

E

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY20

E

1,77

2

2,03

6

3,40

3

3,82

2

4,73

5

3,02

1

5,24

9

5,83

4

5,29

6

5,68

3

6,70

4

8,49

1

7,53

9

9614.87882472022

11615.4008010749

13956.9363422273

16687.862367483911270.221858

3407

15485.7839463107

21143.5268428355

28711.583148865


22% CAGR

40% CAGR

37% CAGR6% CAGR

STRATEGY | March 2016

Indian Markets: Up 100x in 30 years

37

STRATEGY | March 2016 March 2016

Indian Equities – Time-In or Timing?Thank You


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Indian Equities - Time-In or Timing?

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