indian economic potentially is not overstated
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12/15/2010 NATIONAL ECONOMIC PLANNING 1
Indian
EconomicPotential Is
NotOverstated
PRESENT BY:
MANOJ
ANANT
MANISH
PRAMOD
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Where are we coming from?Where are we coming from?
Before independence
After independence
Agriculture sector and small handicraft
industries
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Where are we today?Where are we today?Fourth largest economy by P.P.P.
Second fastest growing economy.
GROWTH:
Population Growth ( 2001- 2007) : 1.4%
GDP Growth (2007- 2008): 9.0%
GDP Growth (Govt. Estimates for 2008-
2009): 7.1%
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contdcontd
Poverty: Rural: 28 % , Urban: 26 %
(Below National Poverty Line)
Life expectancy at birth: 64 years
Infant mortality ( per 1000 live births): 57
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contdcontd
Children Underweight (below 5 years): 46%
Male Adult literacy (age 15 and older): 73%
Female Adult literacy (age 15 and
older): 48%
Access to improved water source
(% of pop): 89%
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28 years of high growth28 years of high growth
0
1
2
3
45
6
7
8
9
10
1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007
average annual GDPgrowth
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Sources:1900-1990:angus
Maddison(1995),monitoring the worldeconomy, 1990-2000/census of India (2001)
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Literacy is risingLiteracy is rising
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1990 2000 2010(pr j.)
ter cyr te
17
52
65
80
12/15/2010 NATIONAL ECONOMIC PLANNING 8Source: census of India 2001
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POVERTY
SS
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Where are we going?Where are we going?
Long run model scenarioHave potential to grow even further to 8.5%
per capita for next 30 years
GDP growth of around 9.5%.
Economy will reach $20 trillion.
Actual economic size by 2039 could be more
than $ 40 trillion.
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World and IndiaWorld and India
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Demographic dividendDemographic dividend
Growth in: Labour force- 1.7%, Population-1.2%
Ratio of working population to the total
population will be on upswing.
Labour force participation rate of 61%.
Reduction in poverty, means to save, investmentin children and human capital.
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An emerging middle classAn emerging middle class
A middle class a boost to growth for any
country.
Providing the source of domestic demand.
The ratio of Indian middle class would
increase from 10% to 90% in 30 years.
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Large and growing domestic marketLarge and growing domestic market
Increase in consumption.
Rise in subscription for telephone service.
Increased demand of durable goods.
Total production of vehicle:
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1988-99 2004-05 2006-07
4.2% 8.6% 11%
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Abundant resourcesAbundant resources
7th
largest country with 3.3 million sq.km & 2nd
largest in Asia.
Ample natural resources.
2nd largest area of arable land.
Large untapped hydro electric power potential
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Versatile, skilled human capitalVersatile, skilled human capital
Unparalleled resource of an educated, hard workingskilled &ambitious workforce
Worlds youngest nation that attracts investment.
Over 380 universities, 11,200 colleges, 1500 research
intuitions
2nd largest pool of scientist & engineers
Over 2.5 million graduates are added to the
workforce every year. 12/15/2010 NATIONAL ECONOMIC PLANNING 18
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The global labor forceThe global labor force
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FDIFDI
India is among the two most attractive FDIdestinations.
Highest returns on foreign investments.
Competitiveness in a natural and human
resource attracts investment.India 19.3%
china 14.7%
Thailand 13%
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EducationEducationT
hird largest education system in theW
orld(after China and USA).
17973 institutions (348 universities and
17625 colleges).
20 central universities, the rest state
universities.
Average enrolment: 530 students
com ared to 4300 in USA .
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Service sectorResponsible for rapid economic
growth.
Contributed 63% of GDP in 07-08.
Ranks 9th in service export.
BPO sectors are expected to touch
$60 billion -$62 billion in 2010-2011.
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Healthy & vibrant financial sectorHealthy & vibrant financial sector
Liberal & progressive policies ,vibrantequity, debt market & prudent banking
norms.
Transparent & well regulated stock market.
Largest number of listed companies across
23 stock exchanges.
Ranking among top3 global markets.
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InfrastructureInfrastructure
Programs of upgrading of 25 airports.
Delhi and Mumbai International
airports two PPP projects with
estimated investment of $3.8 billion.
Construction of roads and highways.
Improvement in public infrastructure
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One of the strongholds of the economy.
Contributes 18.5% to the GDP.
Average growth rate in more than 4%.
Potential to become major grower of transgenic rice
& several genetic engineering vegetable by 2010.
Growing food processing sector.
AgricultureAgriculture
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This is what experts say aboutThis is what experts say about
IndiaIndia
Tom enders ( Airbus )
Craig barrett ( Intel corporation )
Dan scheinman ( Isco system )
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