CORE PURPOSE AND MISSION: To assist cotton farmers in improving yield & quality, helping cotton users locate regular sources of quality cotton at nominal prices and to prevent the arbitrary use of paper and plastic objects where cotton can easily be replaced as a ‘renewable resource’ (e.g. cotton handkerchief vs. tissue paper, cotton bags vs. plastic/paper bags), thereby saving the environment. =====================================================================

Date: 23/02/2017

Quote:

“Many of life's failures are people who did not realize how

close they were to success when they gave up.”

-Thomas A. Edison

India New Season Arrivals: (As on 15.02.2017)

State wise Arrivals

CCI 2015-16 (Lakh bales)

CCI 2016-17 (Lakh bales)

Punjab 5.90 7.76

Haryana 10.24 13.30

Rajasthan 12.48 11.88

Gujarat 46.41 42.57

Maharashtra 41.16 51.06

M. P. 12.45 13.93

A.P. 12.78 10.59

Telegana 38.51 21.92

Karnataka 7.84 8.82

T. N. 0.65 1.37

Orissa 2.32 1.95

Other 1.45 0.76

Total 192.18 185.90

Domestic Market Summary: Gujarat S6 price chart 1st Feb to 22nd Feb 2017 ... read more

In India, raw cotton arrivals usually peak between November and January, pushing

down prices of cotton bales. This year, post-demonetisation, the domestic cotton

rates have jumped more than 10 % over the past 3 months, with farmers now

delaying seed cotton sales in expectation of further price rise.

Most of the spinning mills did not purchase much cotton when market was down for a

short period after announcement of demonetisation as they were all were

anticipating that prices will...read more

International Market Summary:

5 key factors for bearish trend in cotton prices:...read more

5 key factors for bullish trend in cotton prices:... read more

The U.S. will remain the largest cotton exporter with a market share of 35.8 % as

compared to 26% in 2015.

According to Mr.Don Shirley, University of Georgia, the actual US acreage and

production, US exports, use, and another round of Chinese government reserve

sales will be key to which direction prices go from here.

China:

As reported in COTTONGURUTM Fortnightly Newsletter way back in 2015 after our

personal visit to China, China’s State Council had issued a guideline supporting the

textile and garment industry in Xinjiang and hoped to increase local employment

and facilitate exports. There were plans to install 10 million spindles in Xinjiang to

reduce the cost of spinning as the region produces about 60 % of China’s raw cotton.

Subsequently, annual cotton spinning capacity in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous

Region has increased by ...read more

US:

Export markets continue to be the major outlet for U.S. cotton. For 2016, the National

Cotton Council (NCC) estimates U.S. exports at … read more

Bangladesh: Spinning mills in Bangladesh continue to look out for sources of quality cotton. The

supply chain seems to be distorted with… read more

Pakistan: Data of Pak as on 15.02.2017 (in lakh bales)... read more

Vietnam:

Vietnam’s demand for raw cotton has risen steadily for 6 years. Vietnam imported

1.034 million tons of cotton in 2016, an increase of 1.6% from a year ago. The

increment is expected to... read more

Australia:

ABARES has reported that... read more

The recent scorching hot weather in Australia is a matter of concern.

Conferences:

COTTONGURUTM was invited as a Speaker in the following Conference.

COTTONGURUTM Media was the official Media Partner for the Conference.

Global Cotton Summit, Dhaka, Bangladesh (27-28 Jan, 2017)

The Summit was organised by

Bangladesh Cotton Association

(BCA) with the support of

Bangladesh Textile Mills Association

(BTMA). The Summit showcased the

rise of Bangladesh as a leading RMG

manufacturer and exporter and

world’s topmost cotton importer

country. More than 300 delegates

from over 10 countries attended the

Summit and there were many

interesting presentations and panel

discussions from World’s leading

speakers.

In his presentation on “Supply Chain Management (Key to making profits in

Cotton Spinning)”, COTTONGURUTM highlighted the significance of a strong supply

chain and gave a roadmap for Spinners so as to make Cotton sourcing (purchasing)

a Stress-Free experience. The presentation also included report about the global

and Indian cotton market trends and huge possibility of bilateral trade between

India and Bangladesh.

Some data about Bangladesh:

Currently Bangladesh is largest cotton fibre importing country and 2nd largest

Apparel producer country after China.

Bangladesh total exports: ... read more

Bangladesh Textile exports: ... read more

Target for Textile exports by 2021:... read more

About 85% of foreign exchange earnings are generated by the Textile Industry.

Ready–made Garment (RMG): RMG is the engine of the cotton supply chain. It

comprises of about 82% of total Textile exports. Since over 10 years, Bangladesh is

the 2nd largest RMG exporter in the world, after China.

Total Garment Factories: ... read more

Knitting Factories: ... read more

Weaving mills: ... read more

Spinning and Ginning: This year, Bangladesh has become the largest importer of

cotton from the world, and also from India.

Bangladesh grows about 180,000 bales (1 bale=218 kgs) of cotton in a year, which is

less than 4% of their annual demand. It aims to grow 1 million cotton bales by 2025

as reported by the Bangladesh Cotton Development Board.

Spinning mills: ... read more

Cotton Ginning mills: About ... read more

Current Cotton Demand: 0.8 million tons

Estimated demand by 2021: ... read more

Bangladesh is the largest cotton importing country which imports around... read

more

Mr. M. Shahidullah, the Vice President of Bangladesh Cotton Association (BCA), said

that “cotton merchants of friendly countries, BCA representatives, BTMA members,

cotton traders, and other stakeholders of cotton business are partners in progress of

our textile. We in textile sector will be able to know the dynamics of cotton more

intensively with clear understanding of the difficulties and possibilities from the

deliberations and discussions during the Summit.”

Shape India – India Textiles 14th International & 72nd All India Textile

Conference M.P., India (27-28 Jan,2017)

The conference was hosted by the Textile Association of India, Bhopal, (M.P.)It

highlighted the significance of M.P. as one of the fastest growing textile state in

India. It was represented by most of the leading textile mills and professionals from

M.P. and throughout India. Mr. Nihalsingh Nirban (President), Mr. Ashok Veda,

(Gen. Sec.) and entire team of TAI (M.P.), took lot of efforts to make the conference

successful.

Textile Association of India

honoured Dr. Hemant Sonare

with Shri. J. J. Randeri Service

Award for service excellence at

national level for development

of Textile & clothing industry of

India. Dr. Hemant Sonare has

significantly contributed for the

socio-economic development

through upliftment of cotton grower farmer’s community of Vidarbha. He received

award from Industry & Commerce Minister, Government of Madhya Pradesh Hon.

Mr. Rajendraji Shukla at the inaugural ceremony of 14th International & 72nd All

India Textile Conference at Bhopal.

COTTONGURUTM suggestion: The cotton consumption of MP has already

overtaken cotton production. The state government must encourage value

added industries like, garmenting and technical textiles and ensure

adequate supply chain management for a sustainable growth.

Something Different:

COTTONGURUTM CSR Management Services:

Pursuant to the Green Initiative in Corporate Governance issued by the Ministry of

Corporate Affairs, we invite you to utilise your CSR obligation such that it

serves the Society,

protects the environment,

enhances your Social/equity image and

Strengthens your Supply value chain. Call: +91 22 25679871/72

Mail: info@cottonguru.org.

Did You Know?

Khadi Movement: Mahatma Gandhi saw it as the end of

dependency on foreign materials (symbolising foreign

rule) and thus giving a first lesson on real

independence.

India's cotton industry struggled in the late 19th century because of unmechanized

production and American dominance of raw cotton export. India, ceasing to be a

major exporter of cotton goods, became the largest importer of British cotton

textiles. Mahatma Gandhi believed that cotton was closely tied to Indian self-determination. In the 1920s he launched the Khadi Movement, a massive boycott of

British cotton goods. He urged Indians to use simple homespun cotton textiles,

khadi. Cotton became an important symbol in Indian independence. During World

War II, shortages created a high demand for khadi, and 16 million yards of cloth

were produced in 9 months. The British Raj declared khadi subversive; damaging to

the British imperial rule. Confiscation, burning of stocks, and jailing of workers

resulted, which intensified resistance. Khadi Movement became a strong base for

Indian independence.

Coming Soon

Coming Soon

Coming Soon

COTTONGURUTM APP:

For daily updated cotton news and Buy/Sell offers, download the COTTONGURU APP

from your Android Mobile Play store:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.websqour.cottonguru

Workshop on Sustainability of Cotton Supply Chain:

A concrete step towards “Make In India”

How to make profit in Raw Cotton Ginning

A very significant ginner workshop was

arranged by M/s Laxmi Cotspin Ltd.,

Jalna, (Maharashtra, India) with

COTTONGURUTM on 27th October,

2016 on the above topic. The main

objective of this workshop was to

strengthen the supply chain of ginners

and spinners.

A majority of ginners and spinners are

disconnected with their supply chain.

COTTONGURUTM has full faith that such

concrete effort by genuine Spinning

Mills will pave the path for more such

workshops to strengthen the supply

chain and realize our Hon. Prime

Minister Mr. Narendra Modi’s dream of

“Make in India”.

Expert Views: O. A. Cleavland: The road to higher prices is higher production!

There are 3 events that must be viewed in any attempt to understand where the

market may go. First, ... read more

Reports: USDA: USDA FEBRUARY INDIA COTTON ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

... read more

USDA FEBRUARY U.S. COTTON ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

... read more

USDA FEBRUARY PAKISTAN COTTON ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

… read more

USDA FEBRUARY CHINA COTTON ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

... read more

USDA FEBRUARY WORLD COTTON ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

... read more

USDA FEBRUARY AUSTRALIA COTTON ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

*Australia 2016-17 Opening Stocks Unchanged At 1.68 Mln Bales Estimated Last

Month.

*Australia 2016-17 Production Unchanged At 4.5 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

*Australia 2016-17 Domestic Use Unchanged At 0.04 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

*Australia 2016-17 Exports Up At 4.1 Mln Bales (480-Lb) Vs 4 Mln Bales Estimated

Last Month.

*Australia 2016-17 Ending Stock Down At 2.2 Mln Bales (480-Lb) Vs 2.3 Mln Bales

Estimated Last Month.

USDA FEBRUARY BRAZIL COTTON ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

*Brazil 2016-17 Opening Stocks Unchanged At 6.16 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

*Brazil 2016-17 Production Unchanged At 6.5 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

*Brazil 2016-17 Domestic Use Unchanged At 3.2 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

*Brazil 2016-17 Imports Unchanged At 0.1 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

*Brazil 2016-17 Exports Unchanged At 2.9 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

*Brazil 2016-17 Ending Stock Unchanged At 6.81 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

USDA FEBRUARY TURKEY COTTON ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

*Turkey 2016-17 Opening Stocks Unchanged At 1.58 Mln Bales Estimated Last

Month.

*Turkey 2016-17 Production Unchanged At 3.2 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

*Turkey 2016-17 Domestic Use Down At 6.6 Mln Bales (480-Lb) Vs 6.65 Mln Bales

Estimated Last Month.

*Turkey 2016-17 Imports Down At 3.6 Mln Bales (480-Lb) Vs 3.7 Mln Bales Estimated

Last Month.

*Turkey 2016-17 Exports Unchanged At 0.33 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

*Turkey 2016-17 Ending Stock Down At 1.46 Mln Bales (480-Lb) Vs 1.51 Mln Bales

Estimated Last Month.

USDA FEBRUARY BANGLADESH COTTON ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

*Bangladesh 2016-17 Opening Stocks Unchanged At 1.54 Mln Bales Estimated Last

Month.

*Bangladesh 2016-17 Production Unchanged At 0.12 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

*Bangladesh 2016-17 Domestic Use Up At 6.7 Mln Bales (480-Lb) Vs 6.5 Mln Bales

Estimated Last Month.

*Bangladesh 2016-17 Imports Up At 6.6 Mln Bales (480-Lb) Vs 6.45 Mln Bales

Estimated Last Month.

*Bangladesh 2016-17 Ending Stock Down At 1.55 Mln Bales (480-Lb) Vs 1.6 Mln Bales

Estimated Last Month.

USDA FEBRUARY VIETNAM COTTON ESTIMATES FOR 2016-17

*Vietnam 2016-17 Opening Stocks Unchanged At 0.78 Mln Bales Estimated Last

Month.

*Vietnam 2016-17 Domestic Use Up At 5.1 Mln Bales (480-Lb) Vs 4.9 Mln Bales

Estimated Last Month.

*Vietnam 2016-17 Imports Up At 5.2 Mln Bales (480-Lb) Vs 5 Mln Bales Estimated

Last Month.

*Vietnam 2016-17 Ending Stock Unchanged At 0.88 Mln Bales Estimated Last Month.

WASDA REPORT: The 2016/17 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly higher exports

and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production and domestic mill use are

unchanged.

The export forecast is raised … read more

ICAC: 1. The ICAC forecasts that the season-average Cotlook A Index in 2016/17 will range

between ... read more

2. World cotton production in 2016-17 is projected to rise by... read more

3. PRODUCTION ESTIMATES:... read more

4. CONSUMPTION ESTIMATES:... read more

BANGLADESH: To rise by 5% to 1.5 million tons

VIETNAM: To rise by by 7% to 1.2 million tons

5.IMPORTS:

BANGLADESH :To rise ... read more

VIETNAM : To rise by ... read more

WORLD COTTON SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION

2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Million Tons Changes from previous month

Million Tons

Production 21.07 22.85 23.39 0.00 0.08

Consumption 24.13 24.08 24.29 -0.02 -0.05

Imports 7.54 7.76 8.17 -0.01 0.03 Exports 7.55 7.76 8.17 0.07 0.03

Ending Stocks 19.25 18.02 17.13 -0.06 0.07

Cotlook A

Index 70 75*

CAI:

Statewise crop chart ... read more

Government Reports:

Union Budget 2017 (For Textiles): Textile industry is one of the largest employers in India and contributes about 14 %

to industrial production, 4 % to the GDP and gives direct employment to around 45

million people. Expanding tax net by increasing tax limit slab up to Rs 5 lakh will

give more money into low-medium income groups which will trigger more demand

in markets. After short-term sluggish demand due to demonetisation, this will surely

help to boost the market sentiments.

Mr. Ujwal Lahoti, Chairman of The Cotton Textiles Export Promotion Council

(TEXPROCIL) welcomed the Budget and appealed to restore some of the incentives

relating to interest subvention for merchant exporters and cotton yarn and MEIS

benefit for cotton yarns.

Mr. Prabhu Damodaran, Secretary, Indian Texpreneurs Federation (ITF) feels the

Budget focuses on aggressive spending in infrastructure, which will reduce logistics

expenses.

In a press release the Chairman of the Southern India Mills’ Association (SIMA), Mr.

M. Senthilkumar has welcomed the Union Budget 2017-18 and termed it as a growth

oriented budget. He hopes that the textiles being a mass consumption product, the

Government would consider bringing the entire textile value chain under lowest

slab rate of GST (currently announced as 5 %) without any exemption to have proper

compliance.

Views on Effect of Budget 2017-18 on Textile industry:

Spending in rural areas and infra-structure will boost consumption of textiles and

apparels. Allocation of funds under ATUFS will maintain continuity in capital

investment. Apparel sector will become competitive due to inclusion of state taxes in

drawbacks to exporters as well as contribution of PF for new employees on behalf of

employers by Gov't would generate new jobs.

-Mr. Bhavesh Thakker, All Gujarat Spinners Association(AGSA)

1 Budgetary allocation for textile sector flat at INR 6,227 crore for FY2018

2 36% higher than the original Budget for FY2017

3Decrease in allocation for TUFS to INR 2,013 crore FY2018 against INR 2,610 crore

FY2017

4 Subsidies under TUFS is key driver for investments in textiles

5 Moderation in allocation may constrain the pace of capacity addition.

-Mr. Vipul, Kokila Exports

COTTONGURUTM Comments: The recent spurt in cotton prices during which ICE cotton futures crossed a 4 month

high of 75 USC/lbs, will surely influence the sowing decisions of farmers throughout

the world. Already preliminary figures are pointing to an acreage jump of around 8-

10% in the US alone. We may witness a similar trend in India and other cotton

growing countries.

Statistics may show that there is a lot of cotton but the fact remains that the world is

hungry for the high quality cotton. India, the world’s largest cotton producer, has

been a big importer of cotton since last month, a market fundamental rarely seen.

Spinners in most countries are physically short covered in cotton. Most mills delayed

their purchases, awaiting a fall in cotton prices since last 3 months. They may not get

the right opportunity to procure quality cotton throughout the year if they continue to

wait.

Since Nov 2016, COTTONGURUTM has been consistently suggesting to the

consumers to buy quality cotton for long term requirements at every fall in the cotton

market.

Technical Reports:

1) ICE Cotton:... read more

2) MCX Cotton:... read more

Top Interviews: Exclusive Interview with Dr.KavitaGupta,+IAS, Textile

Commissioner of India.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rz6BS_g9Msk

Exclusive Interview with c. Mr. Jose Sette, Executive

Director of ICAC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8h_yvxvaDE

Exclusive interview with thought leader Mr. Suresh Kotak,

Chairman of Kotak& Co.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBJL-gfzLRc

COTTONGURU™ Fortnightly Newsletter is a cotton market analysis newsletter with a global

outlook committed to authenticated and sustainable content. It revolves around cotton and

textile industry as a concept in terms of trade, research and knowledge. The newsletter is

circulated to over 10,000 Textile companies, Textile & Research Associations, professionals,

Government Offices worldwide.

About the author: Mr. Manish Daga popularly referred by the cotton industry as COTTON

GURU™ is a qualified textile technologist.

He is India’s only Cotton Valuer registered by the Indian Institution of Valuers, India. He is the

fourth generation in cotton trade, advisory and broking services from his family. The P. R. D.

Cottons Group is 113 year old in cotton business uninterrupted.

Call or mail for any information, suggestion, feedback or to know how your Company can

benefit from the knowledge and experience of COTTON GURU™.

Call on +91 9820072705 or mail to manish@cottonguru.org

Disclaimer: For private circulation to the addressees only and not for re-circulation. Any form of

reproduction, dissemination, copying, disclosure, modification, distribution and/or publication

of this Newsletter is strictly prohibited. The contents of this Newsletter aresolely meant to

inform and is not a substitute for professional advice.

FIRST AND ONLY REGISTERED“COTTON VALUER” IN INDIA

MEMBERSHIP

1. FIEO (Federation of Import & Export Organization)

2. CAI (Cotton Association of India)

3. ISCI (Indian Society for Cotton improvement)

4. IFS ( Indian Fibre Society)

5. TAI (Textile Association of India)

COTTONGURU™

Mr. Manish Daga