“Independent Thinking Produces Extraordinary Results” · PDF...

“Independent Thinking Produces Extraordinary Results”

Aletheia Research

Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.100 Wilshire Blvd.

Santa Monica, CA 90401t: 310.899.0800 f: 310.899.0700

Friday, October 17, 2008

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March 24, 2008

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April 25, 2008

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October 17, 2008

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May 28, 2001

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May 3, 2004

BusinessWeek (May ’04)

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December 24, 2007

BusinessWeek (Dec ’07)

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March 7, 2005

Fortune (Mar ’05)

July 3, 2008

September 8, 2008

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January 7, 2008

Aletheia purchase @ $5 per share

Aletheia sale @ $33 per share

Forbes (Jan ’08)

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Volkswagen AG (VLKAY)

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.Aletheia Growth Composite Performance ($USD)

17.48%-0.15%9.10%5.93%1.80%2007

-19.53%-18.44%4.49%-5.58%2008

31.40%3.95%14.10%5.55%4.95%2005

20.81%5.99%-0.75%2.36%12.19%2006

18.06%12.72%5.60%-3.20%2.46%2004

63.34%15.78%12.49%25.97%-0.45%2003

-26.10%5.21%-14.35%-12.94%-5.80%2002

-11.68%10.32%-13.90%11.87%-16.89%2001

0.31%-17.15%2.81%-0.91%18.85%2000

69.50%46.98%-0.33%12.94%2.44%1999

26.75%31.70%-13.89%-2.05%14.11%1998

Annual4th Q3rd Q2nd Q1st Q

Annualized Returns Aletheia Russell 1000 Growth

Year To Date Return:

One Year Return:

Three Year Return:

Five Year Return:

Seven Year Return:

Ten Year Return:

Cumulative Returns Aletheia Russell 1000 Growth

Year To Date Return:

One Year Return:

Three Year Return:

Five Year Return:

Seven Year Return:

Ten Year Return:

-19.53%

-19.65%

18.73%

105.13%

135.93%

322.94%

-20.27%

-20.88%

0.13%

20.14%

17.22%

6.07%

-19.53%

-19.65%

5.89%

15.45%

13.05%

15.51%

-20.27%

-20.88%

0.04%

3.74%

2.30%

0.59%

Performance as of 09.30.08

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Aletheia is the classical Greek word for “truth and disclosure,” of bringing facts into the open. Aletheia Research and Management, Inc. is a

proprietary investment company dedicated to uncovering the truth.

• Aletheia was founded in 1997.

• The company’s research disciplines anticipate investor perceptions rather than reacting to them.

• What sets Aletheia’s research apart is its lack of reliance on traditional channels of information.

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.

John McDowellFirst Vice President

Research

Sheila CuVice President

Trading, Operations

David AttieVice President

Trading, Operations

Chris RoperVice President

Trading, Compliance

David BunzelPortfolio Management

(Chairman, Irvine Capital Partners)

Patty BarnesSenior Vice President Operations, Research

Chad CookFirst Vice President Inst. Sales / Research

Elizabeth SandersSenior Research

Director

Roger B. PeikinExecutive Vice PresidentCFO, General Counsel

Peter J. Eichler, Jr.Chairman, CEO,

Chief Investment Officer

Steven SoboroffSoboroff Partners

Santa Monica, California

John S. HamiltonShelby Investors

Bel Air, California

Brian KennedyPresident, CEO

Regency AdvertisingHollywood, California

Herman MuhlsteinVP Packeteer, FMR Sales Mgr

Apple Computer, Network Appliance, Digital Eqmt

Bruce A. LeeSr. VP Expeditors Int’l

Chicago, Illinois

Dr. James E. DavisChatauqua Partners

Pacific Palisades, California

John M. EichlerSVP Cushman & Wakefield

Los Angeles, California

Robert GeisResearch Associate

Rina Echavez Vice President

Sales

Research Advisors

Energy, Health Care

Real Estate Development, Retail

Homebuilding. Real Estate Investmt

Advertising

Computer Sftwre, Storage, Internet

Commercial & Industrl. Real Estate

Transport., Int’l Trade, Logistics

Organizational Chart

Bill KennedyFirst Vice President

Institutional Sales

Christa McMullinVice President

Trading, Operations

Roya SalehiradVice President

Trading, Operations

Alyssa Kennedy First Vice President

Research

Marketing / Sales OperationsResearch / Portfolio

Management

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* Aletheia Shareholders

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.Firm Ownership

Peter J. Eichler Jr., Chairman, CEO

Roger B. Peikin, EVP, CFO

David Bunzel, Founding Shareholder

Patty Barnes, VP Operations

Other Employees

Initial Aletheia Clients/Shareholders/Outside Ownership

90 % ownership

10 % ownership

43%

26%

4.7%

3%

14%

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Aletheia Growth Portfolio:

Aletheia Value Portfolio :

Aletheia 150 / 50 Portfolio :

Aletheia Income/ ICM Portfolios :

Aletheia Insider Index, LP Fund:

Other Portfolios/ Custom Accounts :___________

Total AUM:

$ MM

$ MM

$ MM

$ MM

$ MM

$ MM

$ 11,257 MM

8,520

1,200

780

157

425

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.Assets under Management

June 30, 2008

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.Types of Clients

Corporate Funds

Public Funds

Endowments/Foundations

High Net Worth Individuals & Family Offices

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.Representative Client List

• General Motors

• RBC Financial Group

• Goldman Sachs

• Oregon, State Treasury

• Kansas State University

• Western Growers Pension System

• Morgan Stanley

• ITT Corporation

• Raytheon Corporation

• Florida, State Treasury

• Oklahoma, Teachers Retirement System

• Austin Police Retirement System

• State Street Global Advisors

• Queensland Investment Counsel

• Santa Barbara Cottage Hospital

• Hauck & Aufhauser (Munich)

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.

“Instead of spending time with analysts, the institutions should spend it with the companies. They should bypass Wall Street.”

- Herbert Allen-

“Most people invest and then sit around worrying what the next blowup will be. I do the opposite. I wait for the blowup, then invest.”

-Richard Rainwater-

“Fortunately, there is another course which the investor can pursue. If properly handled, this method will provide the clues that are needed to find really outstanding investments. For the lack of a better term, I shall call this way of proceeding the “scuttlebutt” method.”

-Phillip A. Fisher

“We read a lot – we read daily publications, we read weekly or monthly periodicals, we read annual reports, we read 10-Ks, and we read 10-Qs. Fortunately, the investment business is a business where knowledge accumulates…The managements are not the best reporting parties in most cases. The figures tell us more than management. But we don’t give a hoot about anybody’s projections – we don’t even want to hear about ‘em – in terms of what they’re going to do in the future. We never found any value in anything like that. We never look at any analysts’ reports. It’s far overrated. I don’t think I.....If I read one, it was because the funny papers weren’t available. I don’t understand why people do it.”

- Warren Buffet-

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.Investment Process

TOTAL SECURITIES UNIVERSENYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX, OTC, Etc.

SEC FORM 4Buys & Sells

FORM 13D, 13G,Corporate Activity

Derivatives &Options Transactions

FORENSIC ACCOUNTING ANALYSISBALANCE SHEET, CASH FLOW, CREDIT PROFILE

INDUSTRY RESEARCH

ALETHEIA PROPRIETARYINVESTMENT PRODUCTS

PORTFOLIO RISK CONTROLS

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.Buy Discipline

• Buying by corporate officers, employees and corporation• Consensus buying• Absolute dollar amounts of buying• Corporate stock buybacks (actual, not simply announced) with emphasis on

large percentage reduction of shares outstanding• Option exercise behavior• Hedged transaction analysis

• Empirical balance sheet and cash flow strengths and/or improvement

• Aletheia accounting and balance sheet analysis• Outside forensic accounting analysis and support

• Aletheia “Industry Research” indicating aberrational improvement in earnings, revenues, asset values, or industry position

• Aletheia direct industry contacts corroborating proprietary research findings

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.Sell Discipline

• Selling by corporate officers, employees and corporation• Consensus selling• Absolute dollar amounts of selling• Corporate stock issuance (actual, not simply announced) with emphasis on

large percentage increase in shares outstanding• Option exercise behavior• Hedged transaction analysis

• Empirical balance sheet and cash flow deterioration and weakness• Aletheia accounting and balance sheet analysis• Outside forensic accounting analysis and support

• Aletheia “Industry Research” indicating dramatic overvaluation, negative industry trends, new competition or shifts in technology

• Aletheia direct industry contacts corroborating proprietary research findings

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Murphy Oil (MUR) vs. Chevron Texaco (CVX)

30-Dec-02 Deming, Claiborne purchased 943,976 shares at $ 21.58 $ 20,371,00030-Dec-02 Deming, Claiborne purchased 943,976 shares at $ 21.58 $ 20,371,000

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Wynn Resorts Ltd (WYNN)

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The Coca-Cola Company (KO)

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Titanium Metals (TIE)

Apr-05 Simmons, Harold purchased $ 4,116,000Jul-05 Simmons, Harold purchased $ 4,940,000Sep-05 Simmons, Harold purchase $ 2,053,000Oct-05 Simmons, Harold purchase $ 6,659,000Feb-06 Simmons, Harold purchase $ 15,180,000Apr-06 Simmons, Harold purchase $ 4,000,000

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Freeport McMoran (FCX)

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XM Satellite Radio (XMSR)

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Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD)

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IBM (IBM)

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May 8, 2000

Stock Price Then:

$36.15

Stock Price Now:

$13.76

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Sun Microsystems (SUNW)

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Tenet Healthcare (THC)

16-Jan-02 Barbakow, Jeffrey sold 2,000,000 shares at $65.03 $ 130,060,000

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Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC)

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.Portfolio Composite Characteristics

Strategy Snapshot / Portfolio Constraints

Primary Capitalization: Large Cap

Primary Style Emphasis: Growth

Preferred Benchmark: Russell 1000 Growth

Number of Holdings: 45 Current

ADR’s Utilized: 3 - 5 % of portfolio

Derivatives Utilized: No

Max. Position Size: 5% at cost, 7 ½ % market

Maximum Sector Wght: 25%

Fundamental Characteristics

Wgtd. Avg. Mkt. Cap ($Mil): $49,044

Median Mkt. Cap ($Mil): $8,470

Annl. EPS Growth Rate ( 5 years ): 25.00%

Current P/E: 12.55x

Avg. Cash Position: 0% - 10%

Current Cash Position: 0.25%

Annl. Turnover (By Wgt.): 45%

Current P/B (12-mo Trail): 2.26x

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Aletheia Research And Management, Inc.

AletheiaPeriods Growth Bmrk Excess Std Dev Alpha Beta Tracking Error Info Ratio Sharpe Ratio

1 Year -19.65 -20.88 1.22 --- --- --- --- --- ---2 Year 0.09 -2.82 2.92 --- --- --- --- --- ---3 Year 5.88 0.04 5.84 15.75 6.29 1.08 8.75 0.67 0.124 Year 14.04 2.82 11.22 15.69 11.27 1.08 9.26 1.21 0.665 Year 15.45 3.74 11.71 15.36 11.86 1.01 9.81 1.19 0.80 6 Year 20.38 7.14 13.24 17.03 12.21 1.13 10.16 1.30 1.037 Year 13.04 2.30 10.74 19.05 11.05 1.00 10.20 1.05 0.548 Year 5.75 -5.48 11.23 21.53 11.83 0.97 9.60 1.17 0.139 Year 12.05 -2.63 14.68 25.77 15.94 1.11 11.48 1.28 0.34 10 Year 15.51 0.59 14.92 26.17 15.41 1.09 11.29 1.32 0.46Inception 13.95 1.40 12.55(1/1998)

Calendar Years MRQ YTD 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001Product Returns: -18.44 -19.53 17.47 20.80 31.39 18.06 63.33 -26.10 -11.69Benchmark Returns: -12.33 -20.27 11.82 9.07 5.26 6.30 29.75 -27.88 -20.42 Excess Returns : -6.11 0.73 5.66 11.73 26.12 11.76 33.58 1.79 8.74

- Information as of 09/30/2008

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Aletheia Growth Portfolio Sector Breakdown vs. Russell 1000 Growth Index

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5

10

15

20

25

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technology healthcare ConsumerDiscret.

ConsumerStaple

Energy Materials &precious metals

producerdurable

financials Utilities

ALETHEIA GROWTH PORTFOLIO

RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH INDEX

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Aletheia Research and Management, Inc.Key Personnel

Name: Peter J. Eichler, Jr.Title: Chairman, CEO, CIORole: Chief Executive of Company, Chief Portfolio ManagerYears with the firm: Founder in 1997Years investment experience: 30 yearsEducation: Santa Clara University, B.S. History

Name: Patty BarnesTitle: Senior VP, OperationsRole: Operations, Analyst, Portfolio ConstructionYears with Firm: 8 yearsYears investment experience: 23 years

Name: Roger B. PeikinTitle: EVP, CFORole: Financial Operations, General CounselYears with Firm: co-founder in 1997Years investment experience: 11 yearsEducation: Villanova University, B.S. FinanceSouthwestern University, Juris Doctor

Name: Elizabeth SandersTitle: Senior Research DirectorRole: Research Oversight / Portfolio SupportYears with Firm: 10 yearsYears investment experience: 30 yearsEducation: Certificate of Management,

Graduate Business School, University of Washington

M.Ed., Boston University B.A., Wayne State University

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Name: Rina EchavezTitle: VP SalesRole: Marketing AssistantYears with Firm: 6 yearsYears investment experience: 13 yearsEducation: Pepperdine University, B.S.

Name: John McDowellTitle: First VP, ResearchRole: AnalystYears with the firm: 3 yearsYears investment experience: 5 yearsEducation: University of Southern California, B.S. Electrical EngineeringNew York University, M.B.A.CFA Level III Charter Pending

Name: Chris RoperTitle: VP Compliance / TradingRole: TradingYears with Firm: 7 yearsYears investment experience: 37 years

Name: Joe Boskovich Jr.Title: First VP, Institutional SalesRole: MarketingYears with Firm: 5 yearsYears Investment Experience: 6 yearsEducation: University of Southern California, B.S. Finance

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Name: David AttieTitle: VP Trading / OperationsRole: OperationsYears with Firm: 3 yearsYears investment experience: 7 yearsEducation: University of New York at Buffalo, B.S. International Business

Name: Sheila CuTitle: VP, Operations, Administration Role: Operations and AdministrationYears with Firm: 2 yearsYears investment experience: 8 yearsEducation: Pepperdine University, M.B.A.

Name: Chad CookTitle: First VP, Sales / Research Role: Marketing / AnalystYears with Firm: 2 yearsYears investment experience: 2 yearsEducation: University of Southern California, B.S. and M.A. Accounting

Name: Roya SalihiradTitle: VP, Trading, Operations Role: Operations and AdministrationYears with Firm: 1 yearYears investment experience: 11 yearsEducation:California State Fullerton, B.S.

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Name: Christa McMullinTitle: VP, Trading, Operations Role: Operations and AdministrationYears with Firm: 1 yearYears investment experience: 6 yearsEducation: Loyola Marymount University, B.A.

Name: Bill KennedyTitle: First VP, Sales Role: MarketingYears with Firm: less than 1 yearYears investment experience: 20 yearsEducation: Loyola Marymount University, B.A.

Name: Alyssa KennedyTitle: First VP, Research Role: AnalystYears with Firm: 1 yearsYears investment experience: 1 yearsEducation: Cornell University, B.A.Harvard University, Juris Doctor, Northwestern University, M.B.A.

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