Increased Storm Intensity due to Climate Change:

Marques MillerJordan Langworthy

TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES

What is climate change?Substantial increase in global temperatures over a long period of time.

•Greenhouse effect.•Ocean circulation

Climate Change Predictions

Tropical Storms and HurricanesHow are they formed?

•Warm ocean water•Low pressure systems

Considering factors when assessing storm intensity and occurrence

•Frequency

•Storm Surge

•Wind speed

•Inland effect

Frequency

PeriodBasin 1975-1989 1990-2004

Number Percent Number Percent

East Pacific 36 25 49 35West Pacific 85 25 116 41Northern Atlantic 16 20 25 25Southwest Pacific 10 12 22 28North Indian 1 8 7 25South Indian 23 18 50 34

Change in the number and percentage of hurricanes in categories 4 and 5 for the 15-year periods 1975–1989 and 1990–2004 for the different ocean basins.

Storm Surge

• Definition• Effect• Factor of Influence• SLOSH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/surge/slosh4.gif

Wind Speed

• ACEAccumulated Cyclone Energy

(ACE) = • Damage

Inland Effect

• Inland cities • Topography• Flooding• Pressure release

Is there a link?

Heat energy theory of cyclone intensity

Increased SST increases the energy input

into storm systems

Greenhouse gasses cause heat to be

trapped in the earth’s atmosphere

causing temperatures to

rise

Rising temperatures cause ocean

waters to increase in

temperature, thus storing heat energy

Heat energy from surface waters is

extracted from the ocean by storm

systems and transferred into

mechanical energy

The kinetic energy is then released by the storm through wind energy and

cloud/rain formation

One popular theory:

Is there a link?

*2003 case study • Attempted to find a link

between tropical storm/hurricane intensity and sea surface temperatures.

• Results were inconclusive when looking to find a linear relationship.

Is there a link?

• A report published in 2009 took a slightly different approach

• Analyzed “potential intensity”

Additional suspected effects of climate change

•Melting of glaciers can cause the sea levels to rise

•Warm air can hold more moisture possibly affecting rainfall

Human Cost

• Coastal Living• Money due to damage• Infrastructure effect• Prediction/Prevention

Impact of HurricanesKatrina Andrew Ivan Rita Wilma Dean

Insured Loss (millions of dollars)

45,000 22,274 11,684 10,000 10,000750 - 1,500

(est.) [1]

Total Loss (millions of dollars)

81,000 55,800 15,500 20,600 10,000 TBD

Date 8/05 8/92 9/04 9/05 10/05 8/07

Country US/Mexico

US Baham

as

US/Barbad

os

US, Mexico,

Cuba

US, Mexico, Jamaica, Haiti

US, Mexico, Jamaica

, Cayman Islands

Sources• Cione, Joseph J., and Eric W. Uhlhorn "Sea Surface Temperature Variability in Hurricanes: Implications with

Respect to Intensity Change." Monthly Weather Review 131.8 (2003): 1783-1796. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2009.

• Kossin, James P., and Suzana J. Camargo "Hurricane track variability and secular potential intensity trends." Climatic Change 97.1/2 (2009): 329-337. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 5 Nov. 2009.

• Emanual, A Kerry “The Theory of Hurricanes.” Annual Reviews: Fluid Mechanics. 23 (1991) 179-196. Web. Nov 4 2009.

• Mann, Michael E., et al. "Atlantic hurricanes and climate over the past 1,500 years." Nature 460.7257 (2009): 880-883. Academic Search Premier. EBSCO. Web. 7 Nov. 2009.

• http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/natural-disasters/super-storms.html• http://www.climate.org/topics/sea-level/index.html• Warren, Luke "Global Warming and Hurricanes." Mother Earth News 213 (2005): 22. Academic Search Premier.

EBSCO. Web. 8 Nov. 2009.• https://webfiles.colorado.edu/drewsc/www/hurricane/SeparatingTheACE.html• http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5742/1844