Incorporating Residential Efficiencies into Long-Term...
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Incorporating Residential Efficiencies into Long-Term Sales Forecasts Andy Sukenik Energy Forecasting Group Las Vegas, May 15 to May 16
Transcript of Incorporating Residential Efficiencies into Long-Term...
Incorporating Residential Efficiencies into Long-Term Sales Forecasts
Andy SukenikEnergy Forecasting GroupLas Vegas, May 15 to May 16
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Forecasting Challenges
Forecasters are often faced with the challenge of imbedding Efficiency trends into their models.
Sources driving these Efficiency trends include: > Efficiency Standards> Naturally Occurring Efficiency Gains> DSM impacts
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Efficiency Impacts Overview
To untangle the Efficiency savings impacts from the overall model result, alternative equipment efficiency scenarios can be created and modeled.
Technology Option Spreadsheets can be used to construct alternative equipment scenarios
SAE Models quantify incremental efficiency impacts by comparing model results across equipment scenarios
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Technology Option Spreadsheets
In 2007, the Residential Technology Option Spreadsheets were integrated with the Residential Electric SAE Spreadsheets.
Technology Option Spreadsheets provide:> User customization capability through the input of
user specific Household, Saturation, and UEC data. > Technology level detail behind the Residential EIA
Regional Marginal Efficiencies for each Appliance.
© 2006, Itron Inc.
At the End Use Level, the Technology option spreadsheets provide the flexibility to tie Regional EIA Saturation and Efficiency Trends into user specific information.
Base Year Lever controls the reference point for Share and UEC inputs
Base Year Lever controls the reference point for Share and UEC inputs
Stock Accounting Levers adjust the Appliance Decay and Replacement Algorithm
Stock Accounting Levers adjust the Appliance Decay and Replacement Algorithm
Share Levers adjust Base Shares and Trends
Share Levers adjust Base Shares and Trends
Technology Levers adjust Purchase Share and
Efficiency Assumptions for Technology Options
Technology Levers adjust Purchase Share and
Efficiency Assumptions for Technology Options
Weight Levers tie into specified
UEC values
Weight Levers tie into specified
UEC values
Customizing the Technology Option Spreadsheets
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Customizing Technology Sheets – Share Example
In the example below, the Pacific Region Central Air ConditionerShare Trend is tied into a territory specific base year share of25.0%
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Efficiency Detail -- Pacific CAC
The Residential SAE Technology Option Spreadsheets display the technology option marginal purchase share and efficiency assumptions that underlie the EIA Baseline marginal efficiencies.
Less Efficient More EfficientLess Efficient More Efficient Less Efficient More EfficientLess Efficient More Efficient
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Marginal Efficiency -- Pacific CAC
The Regional Marginal Efficiency for Central Air Conditioners can be computed by taking a weighted average across SEER ratings, using the purchase shares as the weights.
Less Efficient More EfficientLess Efficient More Efficient Less Efficient More EfficientLess Efficient More Efficient
2007 Marginal Eff Calc82% * 13 +13% * 14 +4% * 15 +1% * 19.5
= 13.3 SEER
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Computing the Weighted Average in each year produces Marginal Efficiencies that feed the Stock Accounting Model.
2006 Standard raises minimum
efficiency to 13 SEER
Marginal and Average Efficiencies come from EIA baseline Forecast
2006 Standard raises minimum
efficiency to 13 SEER
2006 Standard raises minimum
efficiency to 13 SEER
Marginal Efficiencies come from EIA
baseline Forecast
Marginal Efficiencies come from EIA
baseline Forecast
Marginal Efficiency -- Pacific CAC
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Stock Accounting Model
In the Technology Option Spreadsheets, to accurately capture the overall impact of the Marginal Efficiencies, an “abbreviated” stock accounting model is used.
A decay and replacement algorithm is used with the older vintages of stock decaying more quickly than the newer vintages.
Adjustable Parameters included in the Stock Accounting Model include:
> Appliance Life> Decay Rate> Replacement Rate
The Default values for these Parameters were reverse engineered to tie the SA model results in closely with EIA Sales/Customer estimates for each appliance.
© 2006, Itron Inc.
The Stock Accounting Engine ultimately produces a stock average efficiency for each appliance that flows into the Appliance Sales/Customer Index Calculation.
Blue line Represents the Average Efficiency
Computed by the Stock Accounting Model
Blue line Represents the Average Efficiency
Computed by the Stock Accounting Model
Marginal & Average Efficiency -- Pacific CAC
© 2006, Itron Inc.
The Central Air Conditioner Appliance Sales/Customer index is computed with the following equation:
In short, the Share and Efficiency Trends are tied into the 2001 UEC values with an adjustment for a Structural Index Trend
⎟⎠⎞
⎜⎝⎛
⎟⎟⎠
⎞⎜⎜⎝
⎛
××=
01
01
y
y
01yy
EffSat
EffSat
UECIndex StructuralCACIndex
Calculate Appliance Sales/Customer Index
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Baseline Sales/Customer Index -- CAC
Trends in Baseline CAC use per customer reflect
Regional EIA Saturation and Efficiency Trends
Trends in Baseline CAC use per customer reflect
Regional EIA Saturation and Efficiency Trends
Saturation
Efficiency
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Appliance Efficiency -- Alternative Equipment Scenarios
Alternative efficiencies scenarios can be developed to isolate the energy impacts associated with different levels of efficiency gain.
Equipment Efficiency Scenarios include:> Baseline> 01’ Average Efficiency> 01’ Marginal Efficiency> Maximum Efficiency> DSM Scenario Efficiency
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Baseline Sales/Customer Index -- CAC
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01’ Avg Efficiency Sales/Customer Index -- CAC
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The 2001 Avg Efficiency Scenario holds 01’
Average Efficiency Levels constant in the Forecast
The 2001 Avg Efficiency Scenario holds 01’
Average Efficiency Levels constant in the Forecast
The estimated energy savings between the Orange and Blue
Lines quantifies the energy impacts of efficiency gains in the EIA Baseline forecast relative to the 2001 stock average efficiency.
The estimated energy savings between the Orange and Blue
Lines quantifies the energy impacts of efficiency gains in the EIA Baseline forecast relative to the 2001 stock average efficiency.
01’ Avg Efficiency Sales/Customer Index -- CAC
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Sales/Customer Indices -- CAC
© 2006, Itron Inc.
01’ Marginal Efficiency Sales/Customer Index -- CAC
© 2006, Itron Inc.
The 2001 Marginal Efficiency Scenario holds the 01’Marginal Efficiencies
Constant in the Forecast
The 2001 Marginal Efficiency Scenario holds the 01’Marginal Efficiencies
Constant in the Forecast
The majority of this delta is attributable to the 2006 CAC
Standard
The majority of this delta is attributable to the 2006 CAC
Standard
01’ Marginal Efficiency Sales/Customer Index -- CAC
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Sales/Customer Indices -- CAC
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Maximum Efficiency Sales/Customer Index -- CAC
© 2006, Itron Inc.
The Maximum Efficiency Scenario assumes a 100%
purchase share on the most efficient technology option.
The Maximum Efficiency Scenario assumes a 100%
purchase share on the most efficient technology option.
The difference between the Blue and Green Scenarios indicates
maximum potential incremental energy savings from Appliance
Efficiency DSM programs.
The difference between the Blue and Green Scenarios indicates
maximum potential incremental energy savings from Appliance
Efficiency DSM programs.
Maximum Efficiency Sales/Customer Index -- CAC
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Maximum Incremental Energy Savings/ Customer -- CAC
The Maximum Incremental Savings Curve provides a range for Energy Savings associated
with Appliance Efficiency Programs.
The Maximum Incremental Savings Curve provides a range for Energy Savings associated
with Appliance Efficiency Programs.
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Constructing a DSM Scenario
Assume a subset of customers are induced by DSM programs to choose a more efficient technology option.
Ideally, this information would be provided by your Energy Efficiency group.
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Constructing a DSM ScenarioThe table shows purchase shares for Baseline and DSM scenarios.As a result of DSM programs, the most efficient technology option is expected to have a 25% Purchase Share.
Less Efficient More EfficientLess Efficient More Efficient Less Efficient More EfficientLess Efficient More Efficient
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Sales/Customer Indices -- CAC
© 2006, Itron Inc.
DSM Scenario Sales/Customer Index -- CAC
© 2006, Itron Inc.
The difference between the Baseline and DSM Scenario can be attributed
to incremental energy savings associated with Appliance Efficiency
Demand Response Programs
The difference between the Baseline and DSM Scenario can be attributed
to incremental energy savings associated with Appliance Efficiency
Demand Response Programs
DSM Scenario Sales/Customer Index -- CAC
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Central Air Conditioner Incremental Energy Savings
The dark green area shows the estimated Incremental Savings from
the DSM Appliance Efficiency Programs
The dark green area shows the estimated Incremental Savings from
the DSM Appliance Efficiency Programs
© 2006, Itron Inc.
Incorporating Efficiency Scenarios into SAE
First, estimate the SAE model with the baseline sales/customer index variables to define Xcool, Xheat and Xother coefficients.
> The SAE model coefficients will adjust to tie the indices into your Monthly Sales values.
Lock the coefficients from the baseline model, and run the alternative equipment efficiencies through the model.
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SAE Model Results
To compute Incremental Energy Savings impacts, take the difference in Model Results across the Equipment Efficiency Scenarios.
Integrating the Alternative Equipment Scenarios into the SAE model:> Ties Sales/Customer Indices into the Billing Data> Allows for estimation of Incremental Efficiency
Impacts under various weather scenarios for Heating and Cooling Appliances
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Summary
SAE model structure provides the ability to identify end-use factors that drive energy use.
Stock Accounting Models incorporate saturation and efficiency trends at the individual appliance level, supporting the forecast with a rich set of information.
Incorporating Alternative Equipment Efficiency Scenarios into the SAE framework can isolate efficiency impacts from the model results and provide a measure of incremental energy savings associated with Appliance Efficiency programs.
