Incorporating the 2015 RECS and Accounting for Program...

www.eia.govU.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

Incorporating the 2015 RECS and Accounting for

Program Efficiency in the Annual Energy Outlook

17th Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting

April 3, 2019 | Boston, MA

Erin Boedecker, Team Lead

Buildings Energy Consumption & Efficiency Analysis

Overview• The U.S. Energy Outlook – highlights and major updates

• 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) Impacts

• Accounting for energy efficiency programs in the National Energy Modeling

System (NEMS) for the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)

Erin Boedecker | EFG Annual Meeting

April 3, 20192

AEO2019 Buildings story lines• Residential and commercial delivered energy intensity declines in the

Reference case; increases in energy efficiency and distributed generation

contribute to this trend

– Total delivered commercial consumption grows at a rate of 0.5 % per year 2018-2050;

residential consumption shows no growth in the projections.

• Major updates include 2015 RECS and technology characterizations for

major end-use equipment in both sectors

• On-site electricity generation increases in the Reference case

– Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity is projected to grow by 7.6% annually 2018-2050

– Commercial PV adoption is bolstered by the continuation of recent adoption trends


April 3, 20193

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2018

history projectionselectricity

natural gas

petroleum and other liquids

other

0.4%

CAGR 2018-2050

-0.3%

-1.6%

-0.8%

Residential delivered energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal units

Commercial delivered energy consumption



April 3, 2019

Electricity continues to be the fastest growing energy source for

buildings use in AEO2019

Note: CAGR is the Compound Annual Growth Rate

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2018

history projections0.5%

CAGR 2018-2050

0.5%

0.0%

0.0%

electricity

natural gas

petroleum and other liquids

other

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Electricity prices (Reference case)

2018 cents per kilowatthour

2018

history projections

residential

commercial

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

2018

history projections

Natural gas prices (Reference case)

2018 dollars per thousand cubic feet

residential

commercial


April 3, 2019


Residential and commercial electricity prices remain flat during the

projection period while natural gas prices rise

5

Residential housing units

millions


April 3, 2019

Population growth is largely centered in the South, leading to greater

demand for space cooling


6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

New

England

East North

Central

West North

Central

South

Atlantic

East South

Central

West South

CentralMountain Pacific

Middle

Atlantic

2018 2050

Mobile

multifamily

single family

CENSUS DIVISIONS

New

England

Mid-Atlantic

South

Atlantic

East

South

Central

West

South

Central

East

North

Central

West

North

CentralMountain

Pacific

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

residential

AEO2019

AEO2018

AEO2019

AEO2018

commercial

2018

history projections

Buildings solar distributed generation capacity

gigawatts direct current


April 3, 2019

AEO2019 residential PV adoption is lower, based on more state data;

commercial adoption increases near-term due to lower installed costs

Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019 and Annual Energy Outlook 2018

7

Residential Energy Consumption Survey

(RECS) and technology updates


April 3, 20198

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

2018

history projections

//

0

Total households

millions


April 3, 2019

2015 RECS shows more households in 2015 than had been projected in

AEO2018 based on prior 2009 RECS and housing starts


9

Difference in 2015 housing stock (AEO2019-AEO2018)

thousands of housing units


April 3, 2019

Differences in households between 2015 RECS and AEO2018

projected households in 2015 vary by location and housing type


10

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

NewEngland

MiddleAtlantic

EastNorth

Central

WestNorth

Central

SouthAtlantic

EastSouth

Central

WestSouth

Central

Mountain Pacific U.S.Total

Single Family MultiFamily Mobile

CENSUS DIVISIONS

New

England

Mid-Atlantic

South

Atlantic

East

South

Central

West

South

Central

East

North

Central

West

North

CentralMountain

Pacific


April 3, 2019

Electric Space Heating increased, Other decreased relative to 2009

RECS and prior rounds

Source: EIA, Residential Energy Consumption Surveys, Comparing the 2015 RECS with Previous RECS and Other Studies

11


April 3, 2019

The 2015 RECS includes an expanded list of end-use estimates

Source: EIA, 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, Today in Energy published June 5, 2018

12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2018

history projections

AEO2019

AEO2018

Delivered space heating energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal unitsDelivered space cooling energy consumption



April 3, 2019

Space heating and space cooling consumption show the effects of

regional trends in sector growth


13

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2018

history projections

AEO2019

AEO2018

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2018

history projections

AEO2019

AEO2018

Delivered water heating energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal unitsDelivered cooking energy consumption



April 3, 2019

Water heating and cooking are fueled by a variety of energy sources


14

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2018

history projections

AEO2019

AEO2018

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2018

history projections

AEO2019

AEO2018

Delivered refrigeration energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal unitsDelivered freezer energy consumption



April 3, 2019

AEO2019 refrigeration and freezing include an increased number of

efficiency options and updated shares by appliance configuration


15

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2018

history projections

AEO2019

AEO2018

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2018

history projections

AEO2019

AEO2018

Delivered clothes washer energy consumption

quadrillion British thermal unitsDelivered clothes dryer energy consumption



April 3, 2019

Clothes washers represent expanded modeling to include both top- and

front-loading washer configurations


16

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2018

history projections

AEO2019

AEO2018

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

2018

history projections

Delivered dishwasher energy consumption



April 3, 2019

The dishwasher is the appliance that is most often not used according

to the 2015 RECS


17

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

2018

history projections

Delivered lighting energy consumption



April 3, 2019

The definition of General Service Lighting was expanded to cover

more technology types such as reflector lamps


18

Modeling energy efficiency programs


April 3, 201919


April 3, 2019

The NEMS residential and commercial demand modules project

energy consumption by census division, building type, and end use

20

Floorspaceand

housing stock by type and vintage

Energy service

demand for end-use energy

services in Btu out

Equipment technology

vintages selected–

each vintage with its own efficiency

Energy consumption


April 3, 2019

NEMS selects residential and commercial equipment based on cost and

performance characteristics and consumer choice assumptions

21

Technology characteristics input by vintage, census division,

building type

Choice parameters determine how

consumers prioritize

upfront costs relative to

operating costs over time

Technology shares

calculated by end use, census division,

building type

Rebates are constructed by census division, sector, and end

use as a percentage of installed cost• Reference sources for rebates include:

– Northeast Regional Energy Efficiency Database, Program, and Measure data (2018)

– Assessing Existing Energy Efficiency Program Activity (2016)

– ENERGY STAR Summary of Lighting Programs

– Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE) program summaries

• Incentives are subtracted from installed cost

• With the exception of lighting, rebate incentives remain constant as a

percentage of installed cost for later equipment vintages

• For efficient technologies with insufficient data available, rebate levels are

assumed to equal 50% of the incremental cost of the efficient vintage


April 3, 201922

For example, consider residential general service LED

lighting in 2018 in the East North Central division• Estimated installed cost for a general service LED bulb in 2018 is $4.00

• By 2014, most divisions reported average LED lighting rebates over 55% of

cost to ENERGY STAR; average and maximum rebate assumed to be 55%

• Assume 90% of utility customers will be offered LED lighting rebates


April 3, 201923

Initial rebate = MIN (avg rebate*%w/incentives, max rebate)

= MIN ((55%*90%), 55%) = MIN (49.5%, 55%)

= 49.5% *$4.00 = $1.98

LED bulb cost with initial rebate = $4.00 - $1.98 = $2.02

Preliminary rebates have been adjusted to bring model

results closer to historical estimates• Rebates have been adjusted to loosely calibrate projected customer

incentive spending to spending reported on Form EIA-861 from 2013-2016

• Rebates and consumer choice parameters have been further adjusted to

loosely calibrate run results to historical technology shares reported by:

– the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA)

– DOE’s 2015 Lighting Market Characterization Report

– ENERGY STAR Unit Shipment Data summary reports


April 3, 201924

For our example of 2018 residential general service LED

lighting in the East North Central division (first adjustment)

• Model tests using initial rebates produced more total spending on incentives

in the East North Central division than reported on Form EIA-861

• All rebates for technologies in the census division were adjusted by a factor

of 0.8 to more closely reflect reported spending on incentives


April 3, 201925

Adjusted rebate = MIN (avg rebate*%w/incentives*division factor, max rebate)

= MIN ((55%*90%*0.8), 55%) = MIN (39.6%, 55%)

= 39.6% *$4.00 = $1.58

Cost with adjusted rebate = $4.00 - $1.58 = $2.42

For our example of 2018 residential general service LED

lighting in the East North Central division (further adjustment)

• General service lighting results were compared with recent historical lamp

shipment indices from NEMA

– NEMA indices show faster adoption of LEDS

– rebates were adjusted to reflect more widespread use of incentives

– Consumer choice parameters were also modified to reflect the effects of energy efficiency

incentives on consumer purchase decisions


April 3, 201926

Final rebate = MIN (avg rebate*avg(%w/incentives,100%)*division factor, max rebate)

= MIN ((55%*95%*0.8), 55%) = MIN (41.8%, 55%)

= 41.8% *$4.00 = $1.67

Cost with final rebate = $4.00 - $1.67 = $2.33

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2020 2030 2040 2050

2018

AEO2019 residential lighting

percent of equipment stock




April 3, 2019

Energy efficiency incentives and expanded definition for standards

contribute to rapid near-term adoption of LED and CFL lighting


27

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2020 2030 2040 2050

2018

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2020 2030 2040 2050

2018






April 3, 2019

Energy efficiency incentives and expanded definition for standards

contribute to rapid near-term adoption of LED and CFL lighting


28

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2020 2030 2040 2050

2018

LED

CFL

incandescent

linear fluorescent

Future EIA buildings energy efficiency work• Ongoing contract with the Northeast Energy Efficiency Partnerships (NEEP)

• Identification of new data sources

• Inclusion of measures targeting the building shell in energy efficiency

projections

• Sensors and controls market characterization


April 3, 201929

For more informationU.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

State Energy Profiles | www.eia.gov/state

Residential Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/

Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey | http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/


April 3, 201930

http://www.eia.gov/

http://www.eia.gov/aeo

http://www.eia.gov/steo

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

http://www.eia.gov/ieo

http://www.eia.gov/mer

http://www.eia.gov/state

http://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/

http://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/

Buildings-related reports• Updated Buildings Sector Appliance and Equipment Costs and Efficiency:

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/

• Northeast Regional Energy Efficiency Database, Program, and Measure

data: Report on Results of Investigations:

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/demand/efficiency/

• Assessing Existing Energy Efficiency Program Activity:

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/efficiencyprogram/

• Analysis and Representation of Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) in

NEMS: https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/demand/miscelectric/


April 3, 201931

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/equipcosts/

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/demand/efficiency/

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/buildings/efficiencyprogram/

https://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/demand/miscelectric/

RECS-related reports• Webinar: Highlights from the 2015 RECS: energy consumption, expenditures

and end-use modeling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR7uBcSgqfI&feature=em-share_video_user&src=%E2%80%B9+Consumption++++++Residential+Energy+Consumption+Survey+%28RECS%29-f1

• Comparing the 2015 RECS with Previous RECS and Other Studies: https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2015/comparison/

• Today in Energy EIA’s residential energy survey now includes estimates for more than 20 new end uses: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36412

• What’s New in How We Use Energy at Home: https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2015/overview/index.php?src=%E2%80%B9%20Consumption%20%20%20%20%20%20Residential%20Energy%20Consumption%20Survey%20(RECS)-f3


April 3, 201932

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qR7uBcSgqfI&feature=em-share_video_user&src=%E2%80%B9+Consumption++++++Residential+Energy+Consumption+Survey+(RECS)-f1

https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2015/comparison/

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=36412

https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/reports/2015/overview/index.php?src=%E2%80%B9%20Consumption%20%20%20%20%20%20Residential%20Energy%20Consumption%20Survey%20(RECS)-f3

Supplemental material


April 3, 201933

AEO2019 residential rebates (as percent of installed cost)

are applied to ENERGY STAR or better efficiency levels


April 3, 2019

Note: Rebates are applied to all projection years unless noted otherwise


34

Technology NE MATL ENC WNC SATL ESC WSC MTN PAC

Natural gas furnaces 18% 17% 9% 12% 7% 5% 10% 10% 13%

Natural gas boilers 12% 16% 8% 9% 6% 4% 8% 8% 10%

Distillate fuel oil furnaces 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Distillate fuel oil boilers 4% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Central Air Conditioners 5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 3% 6% 6% 9%

Air-source heat pumps 28% 10% 21% 13% 12% 4% 8% 10% 19%

Ground-source heat pumps 16% 15% 5% 6% 5% 3% 8% 5% 8%

Clothes washers 14% 7% 5% 6% 5% 3% 5% 6% 9%

Natural gas water heaters 22% 5% 6% 11% 4% 2% 9% 10% 13%

Electric heat pump water heaters 33% 24% 11% 13% 12% 9% 13% 10% 29%

Refrigerators (top-mounted freezer) 14% 7% 4% 6% 5% 3% 5% 5% 9%

Refrigerators (side-mounted freezer) 8% 4% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3% 3% 4%

Refrigerators (bottom-mounted freezer) 9% 7% 4% 6% 5% 3% 5% 5% 9%

CFLs (2015-2019) 16% 6% 5% 6% 4% 3% 6% 6% 8%

LEDs (2015-2019) 55% 52% 42% 52% 37% 26% 52% 47% 55%

CFLs & LEDs (2020-2050) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

AEO2019 commercial rebates (as percent of installed cost)

are applied to ENERGY STAR or better efficiency levels


April 3, 2019

Note: 1Rebates for LED lamps and luminaires are eliminated for post-2019 and post-2029 vintages, respectively


35

Technology NE MATL ENC WNC SATL ESC WSC MTN PAC

Rooftop air-source heat pump 35% 10% 4% 16% 12% 3% 3% 7% 12%

Gas furnace 16% 13% 12% 10% 10% 5% 9% 12% 13%

Ground-source heat pump 22% 15% 5% 5% 5% 2% 4% 5% 5%

Rooftop AC (ENERGY STAR) 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4%

Rooftop AC (high) 28% 24% 18% 18% 18% 11% 18% 22% 24%

Wall/window/room AC 8% 7% 5% 5% 5% 3% 5% 7% 7%

Res-type central AC 16% 14% 11% 11% 11% 6% 11% 13% 14%

Heat pump water heater 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 26% 40% 40% 40%

Scroll chiller 10% 9% 7% 7% 7% 4% 7% 8% 9%

Screw chiller 16% 14% 10% 10% 10% 6% 10% 13% 14%

Reciprocating chiller 15% 13% 10% 10% 10% 6% 10% 12% 13%

Centrifugal chiller 25% 22% 17% 17% 17% 10% 17% 20% 22%

Natural gas water heater 5% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% 4%

CAV ventilation 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%

VAV ventilation 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

CFLs 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% 13%

LED PAR38, LED A Lamp1 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%

LED Integrated Luminaire1 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%

Solar photovoltaic electricity generation by region: Reference case

billion kilowatthours


April 3, 2019

Solar generation grows for both utility- and small-scale sectors, but

growth rates vary across regions


36

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2017 2020 2030 2040 2050

small-scale

utility-scale

2018

history projections

Texas Western interconnection Eastern interconnection

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

AEO2019

AEO2018

Residential solar photovoltaic capacity


Commercial solar photovoltaic capacity



April 3, 2019

AEO2019 residential PV adoption is lower, based on more state data;

commercial adoption increases near-term due to lower installed costs


37

2018

history projections

2018

history projections

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 2010 2030 2050

Electricity use growth rate

percent growth (three-year rolling average)

2018

history projections

High

Economic

Growth

Reference

Low

Economic

Growth 0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

199

0

201

8

205

0

199

0

201

8

205

0

199

0

201

8

205

0

199

0

201

8

205

0

Electricity use by end-use demand sector

billion kilowatthours

direct use

electricity

sales

residential industrial

commercial transportationSource: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2019

Electricity demand grows slowly through 2050 in the Reference

case with increases occurring across all demand sectors


April 3, 201938

U.S. census divisions


April 3, 201939

New

England

Mid-Atlantic

South

Atlantic

East

South

Central

West

South

Central

East

North

Central

West

North

CentralMountain

Pacific

Incorporating the 2015 RECS and Accounting for Program...

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