INCORPORATING ENVIRONMENTAL

VARIABILITY INTO THE

MANAGEMENT OF A LARGE MARINE

ECOSYSTEM – THE BCLME AS AN

EXAMPLE

Johann AugustynMarine and Coastal Management

Department of Environmental Affairs and TourismSouth Africa

Acknowledgements: Lesley Staegemann, Tony van Dalsen

THE BENGUELA IS A HIGHLY VARIABLE SYSTEM

The Benguela ecosystem is naturally adapted to a highly variable environment, but sustained transboundary events, e.g. – Benguela Niños – widespread hypoxia – Agulhas Current intrusions– changes in winds

can impact on the whole system, compounding negative effects of fishing

It is necessary to understand the impact of this variability on fish distribution and abundance, and to predict major environmental events and their likely ecosystem consequences in order to manage effectively system-wide

BOUNDARIES

AND SURFACE

CURRENTS

OF THE

BENGUELA

KEY COMPONENTS OF ENVIRONMENTALVARIABILITY WHICH HAVE

SYSTEM-WIDE IMPACTS ON LIVING RESOURCES1. BENGUELA NIÑOS

MODELLING Subsurface propagation of warm and cold subsurface anomalies along

the coast in March 1984 and 1997.Acknowledgement: Pierre Florenchie

HYPOXIA & ANOXIA IN THE BCLME

EASTERN TROPICAL SOUTH ATLANTIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION

E a s te rn T ro p ic a l S o u th A tla n tic S ys te m : E T S A

E U C

S E U C

S E C C

s S E C

C a p e B a s in S A C W

G C U C

A C

B P U C

E D Z

Acknowledgements: P Monteiro, A. van der Plas and others. In press

ROCKLOBSTER WALKOUT

RED TIDES

BCLME Real Time Data Web Site

HAKE STOCKS STRADLE THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTH AFRICA AND

NAMIBIA

NAMIBIA

SOUTH AFRICA

Acknowledge M. Lipinski

Circulation in the Namibia/South Africa boundary area deduced from

models

Schematic circulation reproduced by the model at (a) 230m, (b) 350m and at (c) 575m depths.

STATE OF ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION AND EARLY

WARNING SYSTEMS•1999 TDA identified uncertainty regarding ecosystem status and yields in a highly variable environment as a major transboundary problem. •Development of a viable monitoring and early warning system and improving predictability of extreme events seen as cornerstones of SAP Policy Action C “Assessing Environmental Variability, Ecosystem Impacts and Improvement of Predictability”•SOE information and EWS have accordingly been priorities for EVAG

SOME ELEMENTS OF THE SOESYSTEM DEVELOPED IN NAMIBIA

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Vertical extent of low oxygen off central Namibia

Copepod abundance off central Namibia

SST in January 2005:The warmest in two decades:

Global climate change?

DEVELOPMENT OF EWS FOR THE BCLME

The BCLME Programme has invested in:

Re-interpretation of existing data and informationCost-effective in situ monitoringApplication of satellite remote sensingModellingDeveloping a predictive capacity

Proper understanding of processes supported by appropriate measurements and modelling with a view to predicting, are the essential elements of the emerging EWS

THE BENGUELA: PREDICTING A LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM

Definitive peer-reviewed book to be published by Elsevier Captures the combined wisdom of more than 100 international experts who met in Cape Town in November 2005 to address forecasting and data assimilation in the Benguela and comparable systems Shows that we ARE now ready to design an operational system for forecasting in the Benguela. Includes a comprehensive assessment of environmental and resource variability in the BCLME and latest developments in model applications. Relevant for sustainable management of the Benguela Blueprint for application in other comparable ecosystems around the World.

CONCLUSION

The BCLME Programme is making excellent progress in addressing promised Output 3 Strategy viz. “Environmental variability, its ecosystem impacts are assessed, and predictability is improved for enhancing the management of living marine resources” when I judge it against its stated OVIs and MOVs.It really is making a difference for sustainable integrated management of the ecosystem.

THE CHALLENGE

To incorporate our knowledge of environmental variability and change, its predictability and its impacts on living marine resources into viable system-wide EAF (Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries) management in the BCLME