Impacts of Climate Change in The British Isles

Dr John E. ThornesReader in Applied Meteorology

University of Birmingham

WM Baseline Climate 1961-90

• Mean Temperature: 9.5 deg.C• Mean Rainfall: 719 mm • Mean Sunshine: 1400 hours• No of Frost days: 36• No of Rain Days: 180• No of days Snow Lying: 18• No of Gale Days: 11• Mean Cloud Cover: 70% (5 or 6 Octas)

Scenarios

• Values quoted with respect to 1961-90• 2011 – 2040 2020s• 2041 – 2070 2050s• 2071 – 2100 2080s• Low Emissions: Widespread Clean and Efficient

Technologies• High Emissions: Very Rapid Economic Growth

WM Baseline Climate 2080s 1961-90 2071-2100

• Mean Temperature: 9.5 deg.C 11 – 14 deg.C• Paris - Marseille• Mean Rainfall: 719 mm 690 mm ? (Corsica)• Mean Sunshine: 1400 hours 1500 hrs ?• No of Frost days: 36 30 ?• No of Rain Days: 180 160 ?• No of days Snow Lying: 18 9 ?• No of Gale Days: 11 12 ?• Mean Cloud Cover: 5 or 6 octas 5 ?

• Plus More Extremes of Climate? Gales, Tornados, Floods, Droughts

Example Impacts in UK

• Water Resources: More Winter Flooding?• : More Summer Drought?• Agriculture : More Pests?• : Change Crops Biofuels?• Energy : Less Winter Fuel?• : More Summer Cooling?• Tourism : Better UK Summers?