Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas
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Impacts of climate anomalies on water resources in the Carolinas
Dan Tufford, Greg Carbone, Jim Hussey, Kirstin DowUniversity of South Carolina
Climate Prediction Application Science WorkshopChapel Hill, NC06 March 2008
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Evaluating ENSO Impacts in the Carolinas
Stakeholders’ perceptions
of ENSO impacts
Discerning and
communicating
variability of ENSO
expression
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Regional assessment• North and South Carolina• COOP and USGS
– 1950 – 2004• Monthly total precipitation and streamflow• Assign ENSO phase by month (CPC)
– Cool (La Niña), neutral, warm (El Niño)• Assign AMO phase by year
– Warm – 1950-1963, 1995-2004– Cool – 1964-1994
• Each month assigned to a season– Winter = DJF, Spring = MAM, etc.
• SAS Proc GENMOD– Gamma distribution– Significance at p ≤ .05
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ENSO and AMO analysis
ENSO phase AMO both AMO cool AMO warm Coastal effectWinter W/C
W/NN/C
Spring W/CW/NN/C
Summer W/CW/NN/C
Autumn W/CW/NN/C
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Winter – AMO n/a
Precipitation Stream flow
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Winter – AMO cool
Precipitation Stream flow
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Winter – AMO warm
Precipitation Stream flow
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ENSO and AMO analysis• Winter – warm AMO, both precipitation
and streamflow– El Niño > Neutral > La Niña
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ENSO and AMO analysis• Winter – warm AMO, both precipitation and
streamflow– El Niño > Neutral > La Niña
• Spring – similar relationships– Not as strong as winter
• Summer – significant precipitation only– Both El Niño, La Niña > Neutral when AMO cool– Both El Niño, La Niña < Neutral when AMO warm
• Autumn – both precipitation and streamflow– Greater regional differences – interior v coastal– Differences between precipitation and streamflow
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Influence of tropical storms
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Dams R Us
• Analysis of only unregulated stations does not significantly alter the interpretation of the results.
• Suggests actual inflow to reservoirs impacts their operations as much or more than weather.
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Uses of these results/methods• Hydrologic modeling
– Effect of interannual and multidecadal phase – Both short- and long-term scenarios
• Value of subregional analysis for water management and planning– Climate driven interannual weather patterns do vary
over the study area• Provides another perspective of the impacts of
land use change• Streamflow is more important than precipitation
for some sectors– Analysis may provide a basis for seasonal
differentiation among these sources of water
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Regional drought implications
• Prior knowledge that La Niña is associated with dry winter conditions in the southeast
• These results show this effect is associated with the warm phase AMO
• Providing AMO and ENSO phases with monitor reports and seasonal forecasts would make them more information rich
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Drought implications example
• Telephone surveys of horticultural industry in NC/SC
• “If drought continues residential planting will be minimal due to watering restrictions”
• Planting decisions are made months in advance– Influenced by an indirect
effect• Some do their own
monitoring to stay abreast of local conditions
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Additional acknowledgements• Jinyoung Rhee, PhD – USC Geography• Graduate students
– Kirsten Lackstrom, Richard Murphy, Sara Yorty• Undergraduate students
– Lauren Felker, Grandon Wilson