Impact of sustainable intensification on landscapes and livelihoods (SILL) in Zambia

Africa RISING East and Southern Africa Review and Planning Meeting, Malawi, 14-16 July 2015

Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Kurt WaldmanMichigan State University

SILL Project Objectives1. Provide an evidence base for linkages between field

and farm-scale sustainable intensification (SI) interventions and climate change mitigation

2. Provide recommendations to inform the design of an integrated framework for programming in Zambia

Pilot sites: Eastern and Lusaka Provinces, Zambia

Sustainable Intensification Interventions

AgroforestryConservation Agriculture

Forest Conservation

Biodiversity / Wildlife

Conservation

Agricultural-Environmental Linkages

Participatory System Dynamics Modeling

Introductory workshop – generate causal loop diagrams Review literature and data sets Build national model in Vensim Participatory modeling workshop – refine parameters Build provincial-level model (Eastern and Lusaka)

Major Trends in Zambia

Relatively low population density Population growth

Projected to increase 10x by 2100

High rates of urbanization Deforestation (150,000—300,000 ha/year)

Population

Fuel

Food

Grassland

Forest

Agricultural

Decision-making

Wildlife populations

Model Structure

National Level Deforestation(baseline, 2010-2060)

14% loss18% loss

Deciduous and evergreen forest20 M

17.5 M

15 M

12.5 M

10 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : landscape_v5_baseline

Miombo woodland40 M

37.5 M

35 M

32.5 M

30 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Miombo woodland : landscape_v5_baseline

National ModelDeforestation by Driver

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baselineforest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline

Miombo Clearing by Driver80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baselinemiombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline

National Model

1.23% loss rate in 2010

0.93% loss rate in 2010

Deciduous and evergreen forest300,000

225,000

150,000

75,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline

Miombo woodland600,000

450,000

300,000

150,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline

Lusaka Baseline

Deforestation by Driver30,000

22,500

15,000

7500

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline

Lusaka Model

Miombo Clearing by Driver40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline

Lusaka Model

Effect of Drought on Forest Cover

A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.

Deciduous and evergreen forest300,000

150,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought

Miombo woodland600,000

300,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_drought

Effects of Maize Yield Increase on Forest Cover

Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate.

Deciduous and evergreen forest300,000

150,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_yield

Miombo woodland600,000

300,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_yield

Effect of Full Electrification on Forest Cover

Deciduous and evergreen forest300,000

150,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_electrification

Miombo woodland600,000

300,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_electrification

Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on Forest Cover

Deciduous and evergreen forest300,000

150,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_efficient_stoves

Miombo woodland600,000

300,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_efficient_stoves

Eastern Baseline

0.74% loss rate in 2010

0.54% loss rate in 2010

Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M

1.75 M

1.5 M

1.25 M

1 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline

Miombo woodland3 M

2.75 M

2.5 M

2.25 M

2 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline

Eastern ProvinceDeforestation by Driver

20,000

15,000

10,000

5000

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline

Eastern ProvinceMiombo Clearing by Driver

30,000

22,450

14,900

7350

-2002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline

Effect of Drought on Forest Cover

A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.

Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M

1.5 M

1 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought

Miombo woodland3 M

2.5 M

2 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_drought

Effects of Maize Yield increase on Forest Cover

Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate.

Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M

1.5 M

1 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_yield

Miombo woodland3 M

2.5 M

2 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_yield

Effect of Full Electrification on Forest Cover

Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M

1.5 M

1 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_electrification

Miombo woodland3 M

2.5 M

2 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_electrification

Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on Forest Cover

Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M

1.5 M

1 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_efficient_stoves

Miombo woodland3 M

2.5 M

2 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_efficient_stoves

Charcoal production and clearing for agriculture are both important drivers of deforestation Charcoal dominates in Lusaka Clearing for agriculture dominates currently in EP

Charcoal dominates both in the future Agricultural land clearing is driven by rural

population growth, not low yields/land abandonment

Charcoal production is driven by urban population growth and energy demand

Conclusions