Impact of Natural Disasters on Critical...
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Impact of Natural Disasters on Critical Infrastructures
Professor Saifur Rahman Director
The 1st Bangladesh Earthquake Symposium (BES-1)
Dhaka, BangladeshDhaka, Bangladesh1414--15 Dec 200515 Dec 2005
Advanced Research InstituteVirginia Polytechnic Inst & State University, U.S.A.
www.ari.vt.edu
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Outline
• Critical infrastructure interdependencies
• Vulnerabilities and cascading failures
Kobe Earthquake in Japan, 1995
Major Floods in Europe, 2002
Hurricane Katrina in the USA, 2005
• Lessons for Bangladesh
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What are Critical Infrastructures
• Energy• Transportation• Water supply • Information & communication • Emergency services• Law enforcement• Financial services• Health care• Food supply• High vulnerability industries
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Infrastructure Interdependencies
Complex relationships among various critical infrastructure elements result in infrastructure interdependencies
Complex relationships among various critical infrastructure elements result in infrastructure interdependencies
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Natural Hazards • Hurricanes• Earthquakes
System Failures • Intentional events• Equipment Breakdown• Human error
Critical infrastructures are vulnerable to cascading failures
• Snowstorms• Floods
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Impacts of Natural Disasters
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Earthquake Kobe in Japan, January 1995
Source: Kathee Terry, NASA
Magnitude = 7.2 Richter scale
More than 6,000 died
More than 40,000 injured
Estimated Damage = US$200 B
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Impact on Critical Infrastructures: Kobe Earthquake, Jan 1995
Effects of the Kobe earthquake in Japan, 1995:• 240,000+ buildings were destroyed
• 1.3 million were without water
• 2.6 million lost electricity
• 860,000 were without natural gas service
• 300,000 lost telephone services
• Highways and railways broke apart
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Damages to gas supply network
• Damaged: 106 medium pressure gas mains
• Damaged: 26,459 low pressure gas service lines
• It took 15 hours to shut-down the system causing many fires
• It took 85 days to restore the natural gas service
Source: Y. Shimizu, F. Yamazaki, R. Isoyama and T. Suzuki, “Super high-density realtime disastermitigation system for city gas supply with enhanced used of GIS”
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Kobe Earthquake 1995
Source: www.unesco.orgSource: pr.caltech.edu
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Kobe Earthquake 1995
Source: www.astro.qc.ca
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Kobe Earthquake 1995
Source: www.mines.utha.edu
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Kobe Earthquake 1995
Source: www.mines.utha.edu
Over 300 fires were ignited by gas leaks from the
ruptured pipelines
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The Kobe Earthquake A comprehensive example of disasters in urban environment
Telecom outages
Gas line fracture
Water line fracture
Earthquake
Direct effect Indirect effect
Highway damage
City had no electricity
High traffic volume preventing communications among response teams
Gas leaked, causing 300+ fires
No water to put down fires
Hampered emergency response teams
Building collapse
This earthquake caused a lot of damages to many complex and modern state-of-the-art infrastructures in a metropolitan region
This earthquake caused a lot of damages to many complex and modern state-of-the-art infrastructures in a metropolitan region
Traffic light out
Electricity outages
Impact
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Post-earthquake Policy Changes and Improvements to the Infrastructure
• The Japanese government improved its disaster response policies
• Special disaster prevention routes were designated
• Roads, railways and highways were reinforced
• Earthquake-resistant shelters were built
• Earthquake-resistant pipelines were installed by Osaka Gas Co
• Real-time seismic motion monitoring and gas supply shut-off
systems for the network was developed by Tokyo Gas Co.
Recovery time: Electricity & telephone 1 month; water & gas 2-3 months; buildings & roads 6 months+.
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A Gas Network Monitoring System
To cope with earthquake related secondary disasters, a new real-
time disaster mitigation system for a city gas network was
developed by Tokyo Gas Co. starting in 1998.
• Operation started in 2001
• Observe the status of 38,000 district regulators
• Shut them off remotely
This remote-controlled system can achieve quick gas supply shut-off
and effectively reduce gas leakage risk during earthquakes.
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Major Floods in Europe, Aug 2002
Source: Risk Management Solutions, Event Report: Central Europe Flooding, August 2002
More than 110 died
Estimated Damage Euro15B
Most affected countries:
• Germany
• Czech Republic
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Impact on Critical Infrastructures: Major Floods in Europe, Aug 2002
Major infrastructures were severely damaged by high water levels:
• Electricity outages
• Telecommunication links were cut off
• Floods damaged public transportation systems
• 250 roads and 256 bridge structures were damaged
• Gas service was cut since pipelines were damaged
• Clean water contaminated with flooded water
Recovery time:Electricity 1 month; Gas 2 months; and Telephone 3 months.
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Floods in Prague 2002
Source: Risk Management Solutions, Event Report: Central Europe Flooding, August 2002
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Source: www.esa.int
Floods in Prague 2002
This is an aerial view of the swollen rivers Berounka, left, and Vltava as they flooded a huge area near Zbraslav on the outskirts of Prague.
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Floods in Prague 2002
A metro station in Prague
Source: Risk Management Solutions, Event Report: Central Europe Flooding, August 2002Source: Prague TV
Floods on roads and highways
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Floods in Prague 2002
Source: Risk Management Solutions, Event Report: Central Europe Flooding, August 2002
A multi-story building collapsed because of floods
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The major floods in Europe damaged all critical infrastructures, but mobile GSMs survived
Telecom outages
Gas pipes shut down
Water con-taminationFloods
Direct effectBoth direct &
indirect effects
Transport. systems High traffic volume
preventing communications of response teams
City had no clean water
Hampered emergency response teams
Building collapse
Mobile GSMs were the only communications means available for the rescue teams, however, the traffic volume was very high
Mobile GSMs were the only communications means available for the rescue teams, however, the traffic volume was very high
Traffic light outages
Electricity outages
Impact
City had no gas for heating
City had no electricity
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Communications during the flood situation
• Mobile GSMs were the only communications means available.
• About 20,000 GSMs were distributed among rescue teams and
state administrators.
• SMS messages were used to provide emergency phone numbers.
• To prevent overloading of mobile networks, mobile transceiver
stations were put in key endangered areas.
• These mobile stations were powered by mobile gas/diesel gensets.
• T-mobile put up 31 generators in Prague; Eurotel used 66 gensets
for its 100 key base stations.
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Strategies Developed in Czech Republic
• Developed a flood simulation system, known as LISFLOOD
• Established Ministry of Informatics on Jan 1, 2003 as a central
government body for ICT
• Improvements made in the department of crisis management
• Improvements made in the Czech telecommunication office
• Implemented International Emergency Preference Scheme (IEPS)
in accordance with ITU E.106
IEPS = International Emergency Preference Scheme. IEPS will provide authorized users priority access to telecommunication services and priority processing of communications in support of recovery operations during emergency events.
What is IEPS:
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Hurricane Katrina in the US, Sept 2005
Source: www.time.com
People were evacuating as Hurricane Katrina heading
for the Gulf Coast
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Hurricane Katrina, 2005
Source: www.abc.net.au
Physical damage to major infrastructures• Electric power• Natural gas & oil• Transportation• Water• Telecom• Banking and finance• Emergency service
80% of the city is left under water with no power, no drinking water,
telephone or food supply.
Estimated damage = US$ 200B
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2.3 million homes were without powerNationwide interruptions in distribution of oil and gas1.6 million customers were without telephone services in LA
Telecom switches were run on generatorsTelecom terminals were run on batteriesInternet services were down
Hurricane Katrina, 2005
Source: www.abc.net.au
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Hurricane Katrina, 2005
Source: www.abc.net.au
Floodwaters from Hurricane Katrina fill the streets of New Orleans
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Hurricane Katrina, 2005
Source: www.abc.net.au
Electricity poles nearly pushed to the ground by Hurricane
Katrina
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Hurricane Katrina, 2005
Source: www.abc.net.au
An oil refinery is submerged in water in Alabama in the aftermath
of Hurricane Katrina.
Gulf of Mexico oil rig, damaged by Hurricane Katrina
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Hurricane Katrina, 2005
Source: www.katrinahelp.com
A destroyed bridge and road
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Hurricane Katrina damaged all critical infrastructures, but mobile GSMs survived (again)
Telecom outages
Refinery damages
Water con-tamination
Hurricane
Direct effectBoth direct &
indirect effects
Transport. bottleneck
High traffic volume preventing communications of response teams
City had no clean water
Hampered emergency response teams
Mobile GSMs were (again) the only communications means available for the rescue teams, however, the traffic volume was very high
Mobile GSMs were (again) the only communications means available for the rescue teams, however, the traffic volume was very high
Traffic light outages
Impact
City had no gas for heating
City had no electricity
Gas pressure
loss
Electricity outages
Building collapse
Gas price spiked nationwide as 40% of the US refinery is in this area
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Telecommunications after the hurricane
• Undamaged cellular towers were operated on backup generators.
• Mobile phone traffic was limited due to congested networks.
• Mobile phones used by rescue teams ran out of battery.
• Mobile transceiver stations and backup generators were used.
• Nearly 10,000 satellite phones were distributed for relief efforts.
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What the likely consequences would be if an earthquake
comparable to Kobe were to strike Dhaka?
What the likely consequences would be if an earthquake
comparable to Kobe were to strike Dhaka?
Q:
Lessons for Bangladesh
Source: http://banglapedia.search.com.bd/HT/E_0002.htm
Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to seismic activity
Dhaka is among the 20 most vulnerable cities in the world
The magnitude averaging around 5 in Richter scale
In addition, floods are recurring phenomena
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Earthquake chronology (1885-2003)
EpicenterMagnitudeDateNameYear
3 Jul
18 Jul
12 Jun
10 Jan
14 July
DhubriEarthquake
SrimangalEarthquake
Great India Earthquake
-
Bengal earthquake
M= 7.1
M = 7.6
M=8.7
M=7.5
M=7.0
Dhubri, Assam1930
Srimangal, Maulvi Bazar1918
Shillong Plateau; death toll = 545; total damage = Rs 9,000
1897
Jaintia Hills1889
Manikganj1885
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Earthquake chronology, contd. (1885-2003)
Dhubri of Assam, India; damages in Rangpur district of Bangladesh
M = 7.13 Jul-
EpicenterMagnitudeDateNameYear
27 Jul
22 Jul
22 Nov
15 Aug
15 Jan
-
-
-
Assam Earthquake
Bihar-Nepal Earthquake
M = 5.1
M = 5.2
M = 6.0
M = 8.4
M = 8.3
Kolabunia union Barkalupazila, Rangamati district
2003
Maheshkhali Island1999
Chittagong1997
Assam, India1950
Darbhanga of Bihar, India1934
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Lessons for Bangladesh
1. Emphasis on early warning and monitoring systems
• Disaster monitoring networks to generate early warning signals
• SCADA networks to monitor and control each critical infrastructure
For example, SCADA, together with automated shut-off valves could be installed in the gas pipeline network. Once a disaster event is detected, engineers will be able to control these valves.
Similar safety algorithms can be used to control water flow, electric power and highway traffic.
The structure of each critical infrastructure must be analyzed in order to identify appropriate control points.
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SCADA Sensor Network
Sensor field
Interface electronics, radio and microcontroller
Sensor nodeAntenna
Earthquake sensor
Gateway
Server
Internet
Affected area
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Lessons for Bangladesh
2. Emphasis on ensuring that key response systems remain functional
It is necessary to ensure all critical elements, especially communications networks, needed to effectively dispatch emergency response crews remain functional.
The floods in Europe and the U.S. revealed this weakness when communication networks encountered severe damages.
Mobile base stations and backup generators must be pre-supplied with sufficient backup fuel.
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Lessons for Bangladesh
3. Emphasis on response planning and coordination among agencies
Kobe earthquake highlighted the need for collaboration among agencies at all levels, including public-private partnerships.
Some of the best practices:
• The development of collaborative community response plans
• The development of mutual agreements among relevant agencies
• The routine practice of multi-jurisdictional exercises and drills.
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Thank you
Name: Prof. Saifur RahmanAffiliation: Virginia Tech, USAPhone: (703) 528-5500Email: [email protected] site: www.ceage.vt.edu
Questions or Comments?