IMPACT OF DROUGHT ON ECONOMY OF A

COUNTRY

BY: GROUP 2

Group MembersKainat Safdar

Syeda Maheen Ali

Saira Adnan

Hunain Munir

Sana Bakht

Adil Fayyaz

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By: Kainat Safdar

DROUGHTDefinition: “A prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall, leading to a

shortage of water” Drought is when you have less rainfall than you expected over

an extended period of time TYPES OF DROUGHTMeteorological droughtHydrological DroughtAgricultural Drought

Meteorological Drought Involves a reduction in rainfall over a region for a specified

period (day, month, season, and year) below a specified amount.

Hydrological Drought involves a reduction in water resources (stream flows, reservoir

levels, ground water, underground aquifers etc) below a specified level for a given period of time.

occurs when a lengthy meteorological drought causes a sharp decline.

Agricultural DroughtEmerges due to the impact of Meteorological and Hydrological

droughts on particular area of human activity

CONSEQUENCES OF DROUGHTEffects of droughts can be divided into three groups: Environmental Economic Social consequences In environmental effects: lower surface , lower flow levels,

increased pollution of surface water, the drying out of wetlands, more and larger fires, losing biodiversity, worse health of trees and the appearance of pests.

Conti…Economic losses include lower agricultural, forest, game and

fishing output, higher food production costs, lower energy production levels in hydro plants, losses caused by depleted water tourism , and disruption of water supplies for municipal economies.

social costs include the negative effect on the health of people, possible limitation of water supplies and its increased pollution levels, high food costs, stress caused by failed harvests.

EffectsDiminished crop growth and carrying capacity for livestockDust bowls and Dust storms, themselves a sign of erosion.Famine due to lack of water for irrigationHabitat damage, affecting both terrestrial and aquatic wildlifeHunger , Malnutrition, dehydration and related diseasesReduced electricity production due to reduced water flow

through hydroelectric damsShortages of water for industrial usersSnake migration, which results in snakebitesSocial unrestWar over natural resources, including water and foodWildfires, such as Australian bushfires

BEFORE And AFTER

Seven Withering Droughts

By: Syeda Maheen Ali

1. Tropical Africa (133,000 B.C. to 88,000 B.C.)

By extracting sediment cores from Lake Malawi, scientists determined in 2007 that sub-Saharan Africa experienced a series of mega-droughts.

Rainfall was so scarce, in fact, that the lake’s water level dropped some 2,000 feet, and lush forests turned into arid scrubland.

Return of wetter conditions, coinciding as they did with an expanded Nile corridor.

Conti…Lush green forests

Arid scrub-land.

Conti…Lake Malawi (2000 ft.

water level drop)

Due to less rainfall.

2. Ancient Egypt (Around 2200 B.C.)Nile Delta sediments show that the amount of

wetland pollen decreased about 4,200 years ago and the amount of charcoal (a sign of fire) increased, leading scientists to believe that a drought must have

occurred. They furthermore speculate that this lack of rain contributed to the demise of Egypt’s Old Kingdom.

3. Mesoamerica (around A.D. 760 to 910)During the Classic Period from approximately 250A.D. to the 9th century,

the Maya built dozens of monumental stone cities while at the same time making impressive strides in mathematics, agriculture, astronomy, writing and art.

Conti…The Maya civilization was

Mesoamerican civilization the only known fully developed:

writing system of the pre-Columbian Americas

as well as for its art, architecture, mathematics, astronomical system.

Conti…Then it all fell apart, a collapse in which drought

almost certainly played a role.

Numerous recent studies illustrate that the Maya endured centuries of low rainfall.

Scientists contend that the drought’s effects were then exacerbated by warfare, political instability and land degradation.

4. The Dust Bowl (1931-1939)The Great Plains in 1931.

Combined with short-sighted agricultural practices

It induced huge clouds of dust that turned skies dark, lodged in residents, lungs, and precipitated a mass migration to greener pastures.

Devastating summer heat wave killed upwards of

5,000 Americans and 1,100 Canadians.

Dust Bowl, also known as the Dirty Thirties, was a period of severe dust storms that greatly damaged the ecology and agriculture of the U.S. and Canadian prairies during the 1930s.Severe drought and a failure to apply dry land farming methods to prevent wind erosion (the Aeolian processes) caused the phenomenon.

5. China (1941-1942)The chaos of World War IIOne of China’s worst droughts in decades hit Henan Province.

Winds, hailstorms and locusts compounded the situation, and in 1942 grain harvests in the portion of the province not occupied by Japan dropped to roughly a quarter of their normal output.

To make matters worse, much of that food went to soldiers.

Forced to eat roots and bark, as many as 3 million Chinese died of starvation by the end of the following year and millions more became refugees.

6. Northern Great Plains (1987-1989)

1950s dry spell,no widespread drought hit the United States until the late 1980s, when prime corn and soybean country in the Northern Great Plains began suffering from low rainfall.

CONTI…Spreading both east and west, the drought was then blamed for the many heat waves and forest fires that broke out in the summer of 1988.Yellowstone National Park, for example, a blaze torched about 1.2 million acres, closing the entire park for the first time. Researchers later estimated the cost of this three-year drought at $39 billion, marking it as the most expensive U.S. natural disaster up to that point.

By: Adil Fayyaz

Great Chinese Famine

Kazakhstan famine

Ethiopia Famine

Impact On Economy

Great Chinese Famine“China has been living in the shadow of famine for centuries” (Ashton,

620).

The Three Years of Great Chinese Famine ,  as the Three Years of Natural Disasters , was a period in the People's Republic of China between the years 1959 and 1961.

Drought, poor weather, and the policies of the Communist Party of China contributed to the famine.

15 million excess deaths in this period.

Chinese journalist Yang Jisheng concluded there were 36 million deaths due to starvation, while another 40 million others failed to be born

Great Chinese Famine

Impact On EconomyCrop production decreased from 200 million tons (1958).

In Sichuan province, the most populous province in China, for example, the government reported 11 million deaths .

 In Henan province, the government reported 102 thousand deaths.

On the national level, the official statistics imply about 15 million so-called "excess deaths" or "abnormal deaths", most of them resulting from starvation.to 143.5 million tons (1960).

Yu Dehong, the secretary of a party official in Xinyang in 1959 and 1960, stated,

“I went to one village and saw 100 corpses, then another village and another 100 corpses. No one paid attention to them. People said that dogs were eating the bodies. Not true, I said. The dogs had long ago been eaten by the

people.”

Impact On Economy

Kazakhstan FamineThe Kazakhstan famine of 1932–1933, described as Kazakh

catastrophe by Robert Conquest, was part of the Soviet famine of 1932–33.

Around 1.5 million (or possibly as many as 2.0–2.3 million) people died in Kazakhstan of whom 1.3 million were ethnic Kazakhs.

It is known in Kazakshan as "Goloshchekin genocide" in reference to Filipp Goloshchyokin, who carried out the Sovietization of Kazakhstan at the time

Kazakhstan Famine

Taking into an account the Kazakh famine of 1919–1922, in 10–15 years Kazakh lands lost more than half of its population due to the actions of the Soviet power.

The famine made Kazakhs a minority in their own republic.

Before the famine, around 60% of the republic's population were Kazakhs, but after the famine, only around 38% of the population were Kazakhs.

Impact On Economy

Ethiopia FamineA widespread famine affected Ethiopia from 1983 to 1985. 

In northern Ethiopia it led to more than 400,000 deaths.

Climatic causes and consequences certainly played a part in the tragedy.

The famines that struck Ethiopia between 1961 and 1985, and in particular the one of 1983–85, were in large part created by government policies, specifically the set of counter-insurgency strategies employed and so-called "social transformation" in non-insurgent areas.

Ethiopia Famine

International aid supplied to the government and to relief agencies working alongside the government became part of the counter-insurgency strategy of the government.

According to Peter Gill, 7.9 million people faced starvation in 1984, resulting in over 600,000 deaths; while in 2003 13.2 million "faced the prospect of a famine and only 300 died.

Impact On Economy

DROUGHT IN PAKISTAN

By: Saira Adnan

DROUGHT IN PAKISTANDrought in Pakistan has become a frequent phenomenon in the

country.

The drought of 1998–2002 is considered worst in 50 years.

Baluchistan especially the western and central parts of the province remain in the grip of drought almost all year round.

Drought in the country is common; if the monsoon season fails to deliver rains then drought emerges.

CAUSES OF DROUGHT IN PAKISTAN

Drought conditions appear when the rain producing systems fail in succession.

Drought has become a frequent phenomenon in the country due to rise in pollution and climatic changes.

Drought is when you have less rainfall than you expected over an extended period of time, usually several months or longer. 

MAIN CAUSES OF DROUGHT IN THAR

1) Natural causes of drought in Thar:

Depletion of precipitation is one of the key causes of drought all over the world.

No rains or lesser rains create drought.

This is the natural reason and can’t be removed.

But it can be offset by taking measures to mitigate its impact.

Conti...2) Political causes of drought and its havoc in Thar:

Thar is one of the poorest areas of Pakistan where only poverty is in abundance.

 It is widely said if one has to become successful in politics of

Sindh he should start his career from Thar.

That is why they don’t take any kind of mitigation measures to ward off drought.

 They also don’t take steps to dilute its effects.

Conti...3) Administrative causes of droughts and its devastation in Thar:

Everywhere in Pakistan administration is the slave of political leaders. 

So the political leaders elected from Thar don’t allow anything in their constituency which may raise the price of votes there.

They don’t want people become aware.

One of the aftershocks of drought is food shortage everywhere.

Conti…

4) Technical causes of drought in Thar:Shortage of water is the biggest problem of Thar.Rains do occur there but there are no proper resources to store rain

water.Water reservoirs are made but most of them are full of technical

shortcomings.Administrative setup in whole of Pakistan is equally involved in

corruption. Which leads to a great cause of drought.

Conti…5) Cultural causes of drought and its impact on Thar:

This is the reason where communities are equally responsible.

They live in isolation because of their rich cultural tradition.

People of Thar don’t call themselves Sindhis.

There are so many groups from other countries who want to help them.

 They don’t welcome charity organizations and always give cold

response to them. 

IMPACT ON ECONOMY

By: Hunain Munir

IMPACT ON ECONOMYThe State Bank has calculated the effect of the drought to the tune of

$927 million in the third quarter.

GDP growth rate will fall to less than 3% resulting in the stagnation of the per capita income.

As Pakistan is an agriculture based economy, the major industries owe their production to the agricultural output which has significantly reduced due to the drought and imports thus adversely affecting the “Balance of trade” of the country.

Another major setback of the drought is the reduction in the country ability to produce hydroelectricity due to lack of water caused economical lost.

IMPACT ON AGRICULTURERABI CROPS:The losses in Rabi crops will be more than Rs. 28.50 billion.

Wheat production went down by 2.57 million tons this year because of the drought.

Current production is estimated to be 18.53 million tons as compared to 21.1 million tons in 1999-2000.

KHARIF CROPS:Kharif crops, cotton production will fall from 10.6 million

bales last year to 9.7 million bales costing Rs. 9 billion.

Conti…Rice production will go down from 4.8 million tons to 3.9

million tons costing Rs.10 billion.

Sugarcane production will fall to 35 million tons as compared to 44 million ton costing Rs. 10 billion.

The drought has also adversely affected the production of pulses.

Conti… Crop Production (million tons) Loss (Rs. billion) 1999-2000 2000-2001

Wheat 21.10 18.53 28

Gram 0.565 0.54 0.5

Cotton 10.60 9.70 9

Rice 4.80 3.90 10

Sugarcane 44.00 35.00 9

Total 81.07 66.64 56.50

IMPACT ON LIVESTOCKThe losses to this sector are worth almost Rs. 15 billion.

Out of this amount, Punjab suffered a loss of Rs. 5.5 billion, NWFP Rs. 4.4 billion, Baluchistan Rs. 3.5 billion and Sindh Rs.1.63 billion.

The drought started to dissipate during the end of 2002.

La-Nina conditions developed in Sindh and Baluchistan.

Brought massive winter rainfalls to all the regions of Pakistan including Baluchistan and Sindh.

Conti… During moonson season , In Karachi 284.1 mm rainfall was

recorded during the two-day non- stop rainfall.

While in Thatta 404 mm rainfall created flash flooding all over the Sindh province.

Which killed 180 peoples and 70,000 were affected.

Acres of standing crops were destroyed & thousands of cattle and livestock were also killed during the flash flooding.

Province-wise effects of the Drought1) Punjab60 to 90 percent of the wheat crop in the arid areas has been destroyed by

the lack of rains.

Areas 7.4 million acres of land was affected.

Irrigated areas, 700,000 acres of land was affected.

According to the report wheat crop in 2,632 villages was damaged and the livestock sector is estimated to have suffered a loss of nearly Rs. 5.5 billion.

More effected ares due to droght includes Dera Ghazi Khan, Rajanpur,Lodhran, Chakwal, Rawalpindi, Jehlum, Attock, Mianwali, and Gujrat.

Conti…2) BalochistanIt is affected by the drought of 2000 and low rains in

2001.

50% of the normal rains in the summer & winter rains turned out to be only 37%.

1.911 million people have been affected.

9.31 million livestock have been affected out of which 1.76 million have perished.

Conti…A total of 1.973 million acres of cultivable land

has also been affected by the drought.

A total of 1.973 million acres of cultivable land has also been affected by the drought.

The Federal Government as well as other government sources have already contributed more than 1.1 billion rupees in cash.

Complicated irrigation system of Baluchistan makes it prone to drought. Over 80 per cent agriculture land of the province is rain-fed. 

IMPACTS OF DROUGHT IN SINDH &KPK

By: Sana Bakht

SINDH

• Worst affected areas by the drought are Tharparkar, Mirpurkhas, Thatta, Sanghar and Kohistan regions.

• Total losses that the province had to face = Rs. 145.8 billion • Rs. 33 billion are attributed to the drought and water

shortage• Rs. 100 billion to the sea intrusion• Rs. 7.93 billion to the cyclone• Rs. 4.574 billion to the earthquake

KPKOver 2.2 million acres of cultivable land in KPK is affected by

droughty conditionsWorst effected areas: Mardan, Swabi, Kohat, Hangu, Karak,

Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Battagram, Buner, Bannu and Tank, northern and southern part.

Government of KPK is seeking financial assistance of around Rs. 1.4 billion from the Federal Government

Impact of 2014-2017 Drought in Pakistan

In 2014:Tharparkar district, Sindh province, 99 children and 67 adults (43 men and 24 women) have been reported as dead

In 2016; 190 children have died and 22,000 have been hospitalized

Reduced harvest by 34-53% and livestock by 48%. (UNICEF, 30 Jun 2016)

Food insecurity and acute malnutrition. (FAO, 30 Nov 2016)Crop failure due to low rainfall, coupled with loss of small

animals has greatly reduced the impoverished communities’ purchasing power.

Current Status of Mitigation and Control Measures

Addresses : (1) water, (2) food and agriculture, (3) health, (4) livestock and (5) range management, and (6) climate change adaptation.

Align mitigation with development, and emergency responses with mitigation

Water: Policy issuesSupply side management Water demand management

Food and Agriculture: Policy inputsResearch and capacity building Promotion of less water demanding cropsSoil conservationWatershed managementWater conservationHealth and Nutrition: Reinforce needs based nutrition interventions Human resource Access and outreachDisease surveillance and responsesLivestock: Veterinary support, planning for emergency support, emergency fodder solutions, community awareness raising and capacity building