IMAGE model – and “Roads from Rio+20: pathways to achieve global sustainability goals in 2050” Detlef van Vuuren, Tom Kram, Ellke Stehfest, Marcel Kok, Paul Lucas, Annegerdien Prins, Stefan van Esch, Maurits van den Berg, Michiel Jeuken and others

2

Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment §  IAM with earth system

focus §  26 world regions/

detailed grid §  Description of GEC and

possible response strategies

§  Mostly used for: –  Climate change

mitigation (e.g RCPs, EU-Commission)

–  Global environmental change scenarios (GEO, MEA, Ag-assessment)

–  Land use scenarios

PBL report “Roads from Rio”

Rio+20, 30mei 2012

§  Model-based analysis of the possibilities of achieving multiple sustainable development goals simultaneously in 2050.

§  Targeted at the Rio+20 summit – but even more relevant now

Roads from Rio

In cooperation with IIASA : Global Energy Assessment UNEP : Global Environmental Outlook OECD : OECD Environmental Outlook SEI : Energy for Shared Development

How did we analyse this?

Rio+20, 30 mei 2012

Sustainable

history

goals

Expected trend

Challenge Trans- formative action

Short-term implications

time

•  Focused on internationally agreed upon objectives

•  Model analysis (integrated assessment); three alternative paths

•  Combined with focus on governance

•  Integrated scenarios for land, biodiversity, energy, land, water and nutrients

02-11-2011 | Jasper van Vliet

5

§  Principle 5 : eradicating poverty: §  Full access in 2050

§  modern energy, §  food §  water §  Improve health

§  Principle 6 : conserve Earth's ecosystem. §  Climate change 2oC §  Reduce air pollution to WHO guideline levels §  Stop degradation of ecosystems after 2025 §  Reduce nitrogen unbalance §  Reduce water stress

Climate change

Biodiversity loss

Nitrogen

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Issues and linkages included in the analysis

Little progress in the past

§  Reduction of absolute poverty §  But for a number of key areas, little progress/further detoriation

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

§  With continuation of current policies, no breakthrough expected

Protect Ecosystems

Prevent dangerous climate change

Eridicate hunger

Little progress in achieving sustainable development goals

Characterisation of three pathways

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Pathway Main assumptions Global Technology Large-scale, technologically optimal solutions;

intesive agriculture, international coordination Decentralised Solutions

Local energy production, multi-functional agriculture, local policies

Consumption change Dietary change, less energy-intensive lifestyle, further pressure released through technology

TFDO Rio+20, 19 januari 2012

The land challenge Ensuring access to food for all – while preventing biodiversity loss beyond the 2025 level

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Technical potential exists…. Food and biodiversity

§  Different pathways can be chosen

§  Key elements: §  Increase agr. Prod.

significantly §  Mitigate climate change §  Manage negative

impacts of infrastructure

§  Protect ecological hotspots

§  Control consumption

Global nitrogen surplus

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

§  Our best scenarios keep nitrogen surplus at 2000 level, despite dietary changes and additional n-specific measures.

TFDO Rio+20, 19 januari 2012

The energy challenge Ensuring access to energy for all – while staying within the 2 deg C emissions budget, restricting bio-energy use under sustainabiliy criteria and staying within WHO guidelines for air pollution.

No fundamental trade-off between poverty reduction and environmental protection

§  50% fuel subsidy and microfinance for stoves reduces this to 1.2 billion people; target difficult to reach

§  Full access to modern energy à Hardly any increase in emissions (possibly less GHG)

§  Full access to foodà hardly any increase in food production.

Rio+20, 30 mei 2012

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Technical potential exists… energy and climate

§  Reaching 2oC target and achieving other energy targets is possible; additional costs ~1-2% of GDP

§  Key elements:

§  Energy savings §  Non-CO2 §  Carbon-free electricity

§  Energy access

TFDO Rio+20, 19 januari 2012

Bringing it all together

Transformative action needed!!

Rio+20, 30 mei 2012

Improvement of Carbon intensity

Improvement of Agriculture efficiency

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Implications for water stress

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Implications for health

20

Interactions!

Synergy

Mixed

Trade-off

Eridicate hunger

Access to water

Access to energy

Clean energy

Climate mitigation

Halting Biodiversity Loss

20

Access to water

Access to energy

Clean energy

Conserve biodiversity

Climate mitigation

Eridicate hunger

Some conclusions

•  Studies show that these objectives can be reached by transformative changes (given the assumptions we made on political support), but….

•  Most significant challenges seem to be related to governance.

•  Important synergies / trade-offs •  Model-based scenario analysis was shown to be

an extremely effective tool in linking across time, scale and issues.

Current 2050 study §  I think the study can have unique characteristics

–  Multi-institute / multi-model –  SDGs as framework (provides direct set of goals) –  Direct network to users

§  Important to ensure a structure that is consistent with these characteristics

§  Relationships with SSPs?

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

Thank you for your attention!

§  Products: •  Summary report /Full report

(http://www.pbl.nl/en/node/55488)

•  Interactive website (app) (http://roadsfromrio.pbl.nl/)

•  Movie with interviews with experts (http://www.pbl.nl/en/roadsfromrio/videos/roads-from-rio)

•  App with the report (I-store - Roads from Rio)

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL: Netherlands agency, but with long-standing experience in assessment of international sustainable development problems Current project – in cooperation with

UNEP : Global Environmental Outlook OECD : OECD Environmental Outlook IIASA : Global Energy Assessment SEI : Energy for shared development report

PBL project multiple products:

•  Summary report (http://www.pbl.nl/en/node/55488) •  Full report •  Interactive website (app) (http://roadsfromrio.pbl.nl/) •  Movie with interviews with experts

(http://www.pbl.nl/en/roadsfromrio/videos/roads-from-rio)

March 11, 2015

The pathways (land/biodiversity)

25

Consumption Change Global Technology Decentralised Solutions

Access to food Reduced inequity Trend Reduced inequity

Trade Trend Liberalization Trend

Consumption Ceiling to meat consumption per capita

Trend Trend

Waste Reduced by 50% - -

Productivity of agriculture (compared to trend, 205)

15% > crop yield increase 30% > crop yield increase 15% > livestock ‘yields’

20% > increase in crop yields 15% > livestock ‘yields’

Allocation of agriculture/nature

Trend Segregated Intertwined

Protected areas 17% (each of 65 biomes) 17% (each of 7 realms) 17% (each of 779 ecoregions)

Infrastructure Expansion constant after 2030 Trend Expansion constant after 2030

Forestry Reduced Impact Logging Forest plantations supply 50% of global timber demand in 2050

Change in agriculture consumption

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§  Considerable increase in demand, driven by population and income.

§  Eridicating hunger could be done with very little impact on overall consumption levels

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012

The main barriers are related to governance -  No single, integrated vision of where to go -  Short-term interests tend to have priority -  Parties have different interests -  Policies are often fragmented -  Society lacks a clear stimulus in preferred direction -  Strong international system is lacking as well.

Rio+20, 30 mei 2012

Scenarios of key importance as connection between research communities

WG3 Community:

WG1 community – : WG2 Community:

Common scenarios

Facilitates large research community by: -  Providing input to

scientific papers (comparability)

-  Enabling synthesis à assessment report

Updates needed : •  new insights into

historic/near term forcers.

•  new requirements models

•  new questions

Scenarios provide insight into… socio-economic development, emissions, climate targets in order to determine mitigation effort

Scenario provide insight into… plausible development of forcers and plausible climate futures

Scenarios provide insight into… socio-economic development (vulnerability) and climate change (impacts)

RCPs Climate SSPs

Scenarios as mean to link communities (SSP process)

Drivers (population

, GDP)

Energy use,

Land use Emissions Conc./

forcing Climate/

Environmental change

Impact Exposed population, ability to adapt

For example, future quality of ecological goods

and services

Forc

ing

leve

l (W

/m

2)

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Shared Socio-economic Pathways

SSP4 SSP5 RCPs Climate SSPs

The Scenario Matrix Architecture

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 Shared Socio-economic Pathways

SSP4 SSP5

Challenge to adaptation

Cha

lleng

e to

miti

gatio

n

Challenge to adaptation

Cha

lleng

e to

miti

gatio

n

SSP1:Sustainability Rapid technology High environmental Awareness Low energy demand Medium-high economic growth Low population

SSP2: Middle of the Road

SSP3: Fragmentation Slow technology Development (dev-ing) Reduced trade V. Slow ec. growth Very high population

SSP4: Inequality Slow technology High inequality Low energy demand Slow economic growth High population

SSP5: Conventional dev. Rapid technology for fossil High demand High ec. Growth Low population

Rio+20, 15 mei 2012 Van Vuuren, D.P. et al 2012. . A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities . Global Environmental Change

35

Model Home Institution AIM

Asia Integrated Model

National Institutes for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba Japan

GCAM Global Change Assessment Model

Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL, College Park, MD

IMAGE The Integrated Model to Assess the Global

Environment

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bildhoven, The

Netherlands

MESSAGE-GLOBIOM Model for Energy Supply Strategy

Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Laxenburg, Austria

REMIND-MAgPIE Regionalized Model of Investments and

Technological Development

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research; Potsdam, Germany

WITCH World Induced Technical Change Hybrid

model

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy

SSP1 Sustainability

SSP2 Middle of the

Road

SSP3 Fragmentation

SSP4 Inequality

SSP5 Development

First

2100 Population [billion] (IIASA) Low (5th) Middle (3rd) High (1st) Middle (2nd) Low (4th)

2100 GDP [trillion 2005 USD, PPP]

(OECD) High (2nd) Middle (3rd) Low (5th) Low/middle

(4th) Very high (1st)

Energy Service Demands Low Medium High Medium High

End-Use Technology High Medium Low Low / High Medium

Nuclear / CCS Low Medium Medium Mixed Medium

Renewable Technology High Medium Low High Medium

Fossil Fuel Extraction Low Medium High Medium High

Crop Yield Improvement High Medium Low Low / Medium High

Accession to Carbon Market

All Instantaneous Delayed Delayed Delayed Delayed

Coverage of Carbon Tax Universal Universal Fragmented Fragmented Universal SP

As

NE

W S

SP

Pop

& G

DP

Te

chno

logy

SSP Emissions Driver Assumptions

Lutz & KC, 2014

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

SSP4

SSP5

Jiang & O’Neill

IIASA NCAR

Income (generated by OECD)

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

SSP2 (Middle of the road)

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomassReference

Cases

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

SSP1 (Sustainability)

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass SSP4

(Inequality)

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

SSP3 (Regional rivalry)

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

SSP5 (Fossil-fueled growth)

Other renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass

Primary Energy

Time-line -  Population/GDP data is out. -  Storylines of SSPs have been established and

published (would be updated over time) -  Quantitative elaboration of SSP by IAMs (energy,

emissions, land use, food consumption, climate change) likely to become available in March for review

-  Scenarios final around May. -  Will be used in CMIP6 starting from 2016

Rio+20, 30 mei 2012