Il rapporto presentato a Vienna

8/10/2019 Il rapporto presentato a Vienna

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Calculating the Effects of a

Nuclear Explosion at aEuropean Military Base

Matthew McKinzie, Ph.D. (NRDC), Erwin Polreich, Ing. Mag. (ZAMG)

Dlia Arnold, Ph.D. (ZAMG), Christian Maurer, Ph.D. (ZAMG),

and Dr. Gerhard Wotawa (ZAMG)

ZAMG: Zentralanstalt fr Meteorologie und Geodynamik , Vienna, Austria

NRDC: Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, DC


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What are the effects of a nuclear explosion?

Crater Blast Overpressure

Blast Dynamic Pressure

Thermal Radiation

Initial Nuclear Radiation

Local Fallout

Global Fallout

Electromagnetic Pulse

important

effects in

military

planning

important

widespread

humanitarian

effects

50%

35%

5%

10%

Energ

ypartition

ofa

nuclearexplosion


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A Hypothetical Scenario


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A Standard Military Target

46.031278 N, 12.596778 E


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Choosing a Nuclear Yield

Data Source: Kristensen, Hans M., and Robert S. Norris. "Russian nuclear forces, 2014." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists70.2 (2014): 75-

85; and US nuclear forces, 2014." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists70.1 (2014): 85-93.

US Mk-12A

ICBM

US Mk-21 SERV ICBM

US Trident MK -4, -4A

US Trident Mk-5

UK Trident

French

M45 SLBM

RF 12M Topol

RF 12M1, M2 Topol-M

RF RSM-50

SLBM

RF RSM-54SLBM

RF RSM-56 SLBM

RF SS-18 M6 ICBM

RF SS-19 M3 ICBM

RF SS-25 ICBM

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

Yield

(kt)

768

220250

384

225 384

150 68

192

460

144

100

144

180

117

384

240

150 68

Numberof

Nuclear

Weapons

Type of

Nuclear

Weapon

200 kt

3,690 Nuclear Weapons Shown: 1 Million Kilotons


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Choosing a Height of Burst

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

0,3

0,35

0,4

0,45

0,5

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425

Nuclear Explosion Height of Burst (meters)

PercentofActivityin

LocalFallout

Overpressurenear*

GroundZero(ps

i)

*Overpressure at 100 meters from ground zero

200 kt Nuclear Explosion

Red: Overpressure

Blue: Activity


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Crater


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Blast


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Initial Radiation


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Thermal Radiation


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HPAC Local Fallout Dose Calculation:4 hours after detonation(historical November winds)


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U.S. DoD HPAC Model (Hazard Predication

and Assessment Capability)


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U.S DoD HPAC: Casualty Tables

For an Unsheltered Population

For a Sheltered Population


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ZAMG Emergency Activities FLEXPART model

Examples for ZAMG emergency activities using the FLEXPART model

Nuclear emergenciesTAMOS Model

Plume transport and

nuclear fallout

computation Accumulated deposition

Time-integrated concen-

trations

Weather bulletins

Volcano eruptions

Calculation of fine ash at

flight levels

Calculation of SO2

pollution

Integration of satellite

information, source term

estimates

Atmosphericbacktracking

Investigation of

interesting

measurements

CTBT Verification

WMO designation

(RSMC)


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Developing a Source Term for FLEXPART:

Fallout Cloud Geometry

View of Fallout

Cloud Model

40 km from

Ground Zero


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Developing a Source Term for FLEXPART:

Fallout Cloud Geometry

View of Fallout Cloud Model from within Austria


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Developing a Source Term for FLEXPART: Radionuclides

Total activity from a nuclear explosion: 450 megacuries per kiloton of fission yield

at 1 hour after detonation.

Our Scenario: 200 kt x 450 megacuries/kt x 75% fission x 50% in local fallout =

33,750 megacuries initial source term.


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October 09, 2014

Precipitation


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October 10, 2014

Precipitation


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October 11, 2014

Precipitation


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October 09, 2014

Cesium-137 Deposition


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October 10, 2014



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October 11, 2014



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November 12, 2014

Precipitation


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November 13, 2014

Precipitation


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November 14, 2014

Precipitation


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November 11, 2014



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November 12, 2014



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November 13, 2014



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Concluding Thoughts:

Open-source information can be used to calculate the effects of a nuclearexplosion in terms of crater, blast, thermal, initial radiation and fallout

effects.

Military targeting requirements for destruction of hardened objects

involves surface or near-surface bursts, maximizing fallout.

For a 200kt nuclear explosion, the prompt nuclear weapons effects are far

more localized than the fallout effect, which were shown to extend across

international boundaries for this hypothetical scenario.

Variations on fallout patterns with weather conditions are a motivation for

non-nuclear weapon states to develop a capability to model nuclear

explosive effects to mitigate humanitarian impacts of nuclear conflict.

Humanitarian impacts of nuclear war continue to be relevant to oursocieties, given the large nuclear arsenals retained decades after the end of

the Cold War, and new nuclear weapons development in many states.


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Nuclear emergencies standard protocol used

Unknown source term: usage of 1 Bq release (3 hours)

Known source term: usage of source term

Weather bulletin: discussion of weather situation and development with regard to

accident

Standard computations include 137Cs accumulated deposition (24/48 hrs), 137Cs

time-integrated concentration (24/48 hrs)


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ZAMG Austria

Zentralanstalt fr Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG)

Weather Forecasts, warnings and advisories

National seismological Service, CTBT Verification

Meteorological, climatological and seismic monitoring

Environmental emergencies nuclear accidents, chemical accidents,

volcano eruptions


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FLEXPART model

Lagrangian particle dispersion model

Source code and documentaiton can be downloaded from internet:

http://flexpart.eu

Users include research institutions, private companies, weather services (ZAMG)

and operational organisations (CTBTO)

Many different meteorological input data can be used:

ECMWF

NCEP

Aladin/Alaro

Mesoscale Model WRF

El t ti P l
http://flexpart.eu/http://flexpart.eu/


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Electromagnetic Pulse

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