IDENTITY AND EMPIRE: RUSSIAN HISTORICAL PATTERNS by Pal TAMAS [IS HAS, Budapest]
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Transcript of IDENTITY AND EMPIRE: RUSSIAN HISTORICAL PATTERNS by Pal TAMAS [IS HAS, Budapest]
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IDENTITY AND EMPIRE: RUSSIAN HISTORICAL
PATTERNSby
Pal TAMAS [IS HAS, Budapest]
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THE EASTERN BORDERS OF EUROPE
Antique interpretations- Tanais/Don16.-17.c. ” -Don, Volga,
Kama, Ob pieces1720cca. Tatichev/Stalenberg- Urals
Danzig-Triest line
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EURASIA, 116 C.E.
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EURASIA, 8TH CENTURY
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EURASIA, 1288
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BASIC GEOPOLITICAL UNITS OF RUSSIA
COMPOSITE BLOCKS:1.EURO-RUSSIA2.FAR-EASTERN RUSSIA3.URALO-SIBIR1-2. N-S 3.W-E.EXTERNAL GATES:a.Nord-East- Murmansk-Kaliningradb.South-West- Black Seac.South-East- Pacific coastd.Nord-East-chukotka, Kamchatka, Behring
tr.
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RUSSIA, THE CONTINENTAL ISLAND
The Baltic-Black sea continental trait and the „limitrof” [V.Cimburskij]
After 1991: turninng back to Asia/Europe imperialistic view –no mans land?
The real center?: Ekaterinburg- Orenburg-Kemerovo
The II. Velikorossija [M.Iljin]
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GEOPOLITICAL FRAMES
Where does Europe stop?What is the scope of the Euro-Atlantic
community?What is the present political meaning
of Euroasia, if any?How relevant is the term „Post-Soviet”
space at all?
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„EASTERN” INTERPRETATIONS OF
EXPANSION/INTEGRATION 1. The Collecting of Lands Model2. The Moving of Borders
[Colonization Model]3. The Strategic Border Model4. The Restoration Model5. Le Monde Sans Frontiérs Model
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Russia in the European Politics
Bipolarity of Europe- division on the Rhein
France/the Holy Empire…18.c. weakening Austria. From 1726
Russia in the European big politicsAU-SP-RU versus ENG-FR-PRUSS.1945- elimination of the Austrian-German
eastern core, Russia is the now the Eastern core- pushed out of the system, th west is unipolar from that time
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Russia between Europa and Asia
A. RU subordinated
B. RU integrated
C.Western contratt.
D. marginalisation
Euroasian intermissions
I. 1726-1812 AU, 1807- Napoleon
Napoleon in moscow 1812
1813-15 anti-napoleon 1815-1853 holy all.
Crimean War 1853-56
1857-1905 Manshuria, Amur, Central Asia
II. Russia Entente1906-1917
Civil war, foreign intervention 1918-19
Early 1920ies- export of revolution
Late 1920ies, Locarno, bolsevizm out of Europe
SU, Mongolian protectorat, Japan war
III- Molotov-Ribbentropp, 1939-40
22.6.1941 Barbarossa
1944-45 Jalta
1985-1991 Perstrojka, army withr.
„near abroad” post 1988-91concepts
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DISCOURSES ON EAST-WEST BORDERSRUSSIA EU
CONVERSATIVES
Realpolitik Traditional national identites
MODERNIZERS [LIBERALS?]
Ignorance of geopolitics
Realpolitik
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THE NEW GAME
VULNERABILITY OF THE NEW ELITES AND STATES AS A CENTRAL PROBLEM
Primary factors:a. External [„Western”] geopolitical
interestsb. Programs of militant nation building and
consolidationc. Short term Russian geopolitical interestsd. Major socio-economic tensions in the new
states
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THE MAJOR „FRONTLINE”
a.THE NEW MIDEAST – THE CAUCASUS as part of the region
b. Central Asia- as a borderland between China and the Moslim world
c. Vulnerability of energy supply lines for Europe
Different Russian-Western interests in the 3 regions. In „c” stong co-operation is needed, but in A. and b. not.
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THE GEOPOLITICAL MATRIX
EXTERNAL GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS
INTENSIVE NATIONBUILD
SOCIO-ECON. TENSIONS
BELORUS x xxx -x xx
UKRAINE xx xxx xx xx
ESTONIA# xxx x xxx x
LETTLAND# xxx x xxx x
LITHAUNIA# xxx x xx x
ARMENIA xxx x xx xx
GEORGIA xx xx xxx xxx
AZERBAIDZAN
xxx xx xx? x
TURMENIST. xx x x? x?
TADJIKISTAN xxx xx? x xxx
UZBEKISTAN xxx xx x? xxx?
KAZAHSTAN xxx xxx x x
KIRGISTAN xx xx xx xxx
MOLDOVA x? x? xx xxx
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MATRIX OF LOCAL STRATEGIES
NAT.RESORCE EXPORT
LABOR EXPORT
„KORENIZACIJA”
SOCIAL HOMOGEN.
BELORUS x? -- x xxx
UKRAINE x xxx xx xx
ESTONIA# -- x xxx x
LETTLAND# -- x xxx x
LITHAUNIA# -- xx xx xx
ARMENIA -- xxx xx x
GEORGIA - xxx xxx x
AZERBAIDZAN
xxx xx xx xx
TURMENIST. xxx -- xxx xxx
TADJIKISTAN -- xx xx? x
UZBEKISTAN xx xx xxx xx
KAZAHSTAN xxx - xx xx
KIRGISISTAN x? xxx x? xx
MOLDOVA x? xxx x? xx
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GEOPOLITICS-LOCAL STRATEGIES
EXPERTAL GEOPOLITICS
RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS
INTENSIVE NATIONBUILD
SOCIO-ECON. TENSIONS
NAT.RESORCE EXPORT
AZERI, TURKMEN, KAZAH
KAZAHSTAN
LABOR EXPORT
ARMENIA UKRAINE GEORGIA GEORGIA, MOLDOVA KIRGISTAN
„KORENIZACIJA”
ESTONIA,LATVIA
GEORGIA, ESTONIA,LATVIA
GEORGIA, UZBEKISTAN
SOCIAL HOMOGEN.
TURKMEN BELORUS BELORUS
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FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS
a. Who does generate Post-Soviet underdevelopment?
b. What are the tools of a low cost „energy imperialism” in comparison with the classical „imperialism of free trade” [Ru-EU?] in this region?
c. How do networks, webs, or circuits of foreign origin divide the new political class?
d. Are members of the Post-Soviet intelligentsia still modernization zealots?
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CONCLUSIONS
A. HOTSPOTS:B. ZONES OF EASY COMPROMISES:C. CONFLICT AVOIDING STRATEGIES for
the local CIS elites: a. no, or very few symbolic actions b. selective decisions, networks with
different vectors c. relative, or step-by-step „energy
independence” d.readyness to compromises in local
social conflicts
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FUTURE ALTERNATIVE RU-EU SCENARIOS
1. Neo-Finlandization2. „Baltization”3. Mexicanization”4. Selective-competitive co-operation