Identifying At-Risk Identifying At-Risk StudentsStudents

Gary R. PikeGary R. Pike

Information Management & Institutional Information Management & Institutional ResearchResearch

Indiana University Purdue University Indiana University Purdue University IndianapolisIndianapolis

Using Student GroupsUsing Student Groups

At both the University of Missouri and At both the University of Missouri and Mississippi State we made use of Mississippi State we made use of student groups in enrollment student groups in enrollment management.management.

We used these groups to assess the We used these groups to assess the effectiveness of our recruitment effectiveness of our recruitment efforts, advise students about efforts, advise students about appropriate courses, and assess appropriate courses, and assess progress in improving retention.progress in improving retention.

Creating Student GroupsCreating Student Groups

My preference is to use “predicted My preference is to use “predicted GPA” to create student groups.GPA” to create student groups.

– It is empirically derived from a measure of It is empirically derived from a measure of student success (GPA).student success (GPA).

– It uses multiple measures of incoming It uses multiple measures of incoming quality (e.g., SAT/ACT & High School GPA).quality (e.g., SAT/ACT & High School GPA).

– It creates a “sliding scale” classification It creates a “sliding scale” classification system where low performance in one system where low performance in one area (SAT/ACT scores) can be offset by area (SAT/ACT scores) can be offset by high performance in another area (H.S. high performance in another area (H.S. grades).grades).

First Things FirstFirst Things First

In order to create student groups, In order to create student groups, you have to:you have to:

– First, create groups based on existing First, create groups based on existing cohorts of students; andcohorts of students; and

– Second, validate the groups against the Second, validate the groups against the performance of the students in the performance of the students in the cohorts.cohorts.

Creating Student GroupsCreating Student Groups

In order to create student groups, I In order to create student groups, I used all first-time, full-time freshmen used all first-time, full-time freshmen (21 or younger) who began in Fall (21 or younger) who began in Fall 2005.2005.

I only included those students that had I only included those students that had complete data forcomplete data for– Freshman-Year GPAFreshman-Year GPA– ACT/SATACT/SAT– High School Grade Point AverageHigh School Grade Point Average

Creating Student GroupsCreating Student Groups

IUPUI first-year GPA was regressed IUPUI first-year GPA was regressed onon– SAT/ACT andSAT/ACT and– HS GPAHS GPA

Based on the regression results, Based on the regression results, predicted GPAs were calculated for predicted GPAs were calculated for each student.each student.

Predicted GPA ResultsPredicted GPA Results

Model 1:Model 1:

PGPA = –0.730 + 0.001 * SAT + 0.838 * PGPA = –0.730 + 0.001 * SAT + 0.838 * HSGPAHSGPARR22 = 0.23 = 0.23

Creating Student GroupsCreating Student Groups

Quartiles of predicted GPAs were Quartiles of predicted GPAs were used to create four student groups.used to create four student groups.– A fifth student group consists of those A fifth student group consists of those

students with no predicted GPA.students with no predicted GPA.

In order to evaluate the predictive In order to evaluate the predictive validity of the student groups, I validity of the student groups, I looked at differences in retention and looked at differences in retention and success rates by advising group.success rates by advising group.– Conditional admits was used as a Conditional admits was used as a

baseline.baseline.

Student GroupsStudent Groups

Student Groups (Quartiles)Student Groups (Quartiles)

– Group 1:Group 1: 3.211 – 4.0003.211 – 4.000– Group 2:Group 2: 2.832 – 3.2102.832 – 3.210– Group 3:Group 3: 2.530 – 2.8312.530 – 2.831– Group 4:Group 4: 0.000 – 2.5290.000 – 2.529

Outcome MeasuresOutcome Measures

Retention:Retention:– Students who began in Fall 2005 and Students who began in Fall 2005 and

were still enrolled in Fall 2006were still enrolled in Fall 2006

Success: GPA >= 2.00Success: GPA >= 2.00– First-year GPA of 2.00 or greater.First-year GPA of 2.00 or greater.

Student Groups & Conditional Student Groups & Conditional AdmitsAdmits

Regular AdmitRegular Admit ConditionalConditional

Group 1Group 1 98.7%98.7% 1.3%1.3%

Group 2Group 2 92.0%92.0% 8.0%8.0%

Group 3Group 3 65.8%65.8% 34.2%34.2%

Group 4Group 4 21.8%21.8% 78.2%78.2%

Predictive Validity - Predictive Validity - RetentionRetention

RetainedRetained Not RetainedNot Retained

Group 1Group 1 74.6%74.6% 25.4%25.4%

Group 2Group 2 71.5%71.5% 28.5%28.5%

Group 3Group 3 57.5%57.5% 42.5%42.5%

Group 4Group 4 54.1%54.1% 45.9%45.9%

Retention of Regular Admits = 68.4%; Conditional Admits = 55.5%

Predictive Validity: GPA Predictive Validity: GPA ≥≥ 2.002.00

GE 2.00GE 2.00 LT 2.00LT 2.00

Group 1Group 1 90.7%90.7% 9.3%9.3%

Group 2Group 2 79.8%79.8% 20.2%20.2%

Group 3Group 3 65.5%65.5% 34.5%34.5%

Group 4Group 4 55.2%55.2% 44.8%44.8%

GPA ≥ 2.00 for Regular Admits = 79.2%; Conditional Admits = 58.3%

Success Rates by Predicted Success Rates by Predicted GPAGPA

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

<2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.40

Predicted GPA

Pro

port

ion <

2.0

0

GPA < 2.00

Numbers of At-Risk Numbers of At-Risk StudentsStudents

28 3850

76

110

137160

200

254

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

< 2.00 2.05 2.1 2.15 2.2 2.25 2.3 2.35 2.4

Setting A Cut ScoreSetting A Cut Score

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

< 2.00 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.40

Predicted GPA

Nu

mb

er

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Pro

po

rtio

n

Number Success

A Multivariate AnalysisA Multivariate Analysis

Success in college is a result of a Success in college is a result of a variety of factors.variety of factors.

Important to try to isolate the unique Important to try to isolate the unique contributions of those factors to contributions of those factors to student success.student success.

Multivariate analyses (logistic Multivariate analyses (logistic regression) can be used to identify regression) can be used to identify the unique contributions and relative the unique contributions and relative importance of factors contributing to importance of factors contributing to student success.student success.

Factors Associated with Factors Associated with SuccessSuccess

GenderGender

First-Generation StudentFirst-Generation Student

Institutional Commitment (Intent to Institutional Commitment (Intent to Transfer)Transfer)

Amount of Time Spent WorkingAmount of Time Spent Working

Student GroupsStudent GroupsEthnicity (minority status) was not significantly related to student success.

ResultsResults

BB Prob.Prob. ΔΔPPConstant (Intercept)Constant (Intercept) 2.7522.752 0.9400.940

Male StudentMale Student ––0.2700.270 0.9230.923 ––0.0170.017

First-GenerationFirst-Generation ––0.4520.452 0.9090.909 ––0.0310.031

Intend to TransferIntend to Transfer ––0.2160.216 0.9270.927 ––0.0130.013

Intend Work 20+ Intend Work 20+ HoursHours

––0.5440.544 0.9010.901 ––0.0390.039

Group 2Group 2 ––0.7670.767 0.8790.879 ––0.0610.061

Group 3Group 3 ––1.5401.540 0.7710.771 ––0.1690.169

Group 4Group 4 ––1.8951.895 0.7020.702 ––0.2380.238

Probabilities of SuccessProbabilities of Success Overall probability of success (i.e., GPA Overall probability of success (i.e., GPA ≥ ≥

2.00) for the sample: 2.00) for the sample: 0.7180.718..

The probability of success for a female, The probability of success for a female, second generation student, in Group 1, who second generation student, in Group 1, who intends to graduate from IUPUI, and intends intends to graduate from IUPUI, and intends to work 20 hours per week or less: to work 20 hours per week or less: 0.9400.940..

The probability of success for a male, first-The probability of success for a male, first-generation student, in Group 4, who is not generation student, in Group 4, who is not certain he will graduate from IUPUI, and certain he will graduate from IUPUI, and intends to work more than 20 hours per intends to work more than 20 hours per week: week: 0.3490.349..

Grades, Financial Aid, & Grades, Financial Aid, & RetentionRetention

Outcome Measure: Fall-to-Fall Outcome Measure: Fall-to-Fall Retention.Retention.

PredictorsPredictors– First-Generation StudentFirst-Generation Student– Intent to TransferIntent to Transfer– Financial Need ($1,000)Financial Need ($1,000)– Total Gift Aid ($1,000)Total Gift Aid ($1,000)– Total Loans ($1,000)Total Loans ($1,000)– GPA < 2.00GPA < 2.00

ResultsResults

BB Prob.Prob. ΔΔPPConstantConstant 1.4601.460 0.8120.812

First-Generation First-Generation StudentStudent

––0.1570.157 0.7860.786 ––0.0260.026

Intends to TransferIntends to Transfer ––0.3540.354 0.7510.751 ––0.0610.061

GPA < 2.00GPA < 2.00 ––2.1202.120 0.3410.341 ––0.5260.526

Financial Need ($1,000)Financial Need ($1,000) ––0.0170.017 0.8090.809 ––0.0030.003

Total Gift Aid ($1,000)Total Gift Aid ($1,000) 0.0390.039 0.8170.817 0.0050.005

Total Loans ($1,000)Total Loans ($1,000) ––0.0500.050 0.8040.804 ––0.0080.008

Probability of Being Probability of Being RetainedRetained

Overall probability of being retained: Overall probability of being retained: 0.6330.633..

The probability of being retained if The probability of being retained if the student is second generation, the student is second generation, intends to graduate from IUPUI, has intends to graduate from IUPUI, has no financial need, no gift aid, no no financial need, no gift aid, no loans, and has a first-year GPA of loans, and has a first-year GPA of 2.00 of greater: 2.00 of greater: 0.8120.812..

Effects of Financial AidEffects of Financial Aid

The probability of being retained if the student is second The probability of being retained if the student is second generation, intends to graduate from IUPUI, has no generation, intends to graduate from IUPUI, has no financial need, no gift aid, no loans, and has a first-year financial need, no gift aid, no loans, and has a first-year GPA of 2.00 of greater: GPA of 2.00 of greater: 0.8120.812..

Need=$15,000; Gift=$5,000; Loans=$10,000: Need=$15,000; Gift=$5,000; Loans=$10,000: 0.7110.711..

Need=$15,000; Gift=$7,500; Loans=$7,500: Need=$15,000; Gift=$7,500; Loans=$7,500: 0.7540.754..

Need=$15,000; Gift=$10,000; Loans=$5,000: Need=$15,000; Gift=$10,000; Loans=$5,000: 0.7930.793..

Need=$10,000; Gift=$0; Loans=$10,000: Need=$10,000; Gift=$0; Loans=$10,000: 0.6880.688..