Idaho Grain Market Report, September 17, 2020—NEW CROP PRICES

Published weekly by the Idaho Barley Commission lwilder@barley.idaho.gov 208-334-2090 www.barley.idaho.gov

Barley(Cwt.) FEED

48 lbs or

better

MALTING

Open

Market Malting

Wheat (bu.) Milling

#1 SWW

#1 HRW 11.5% Protein

#1 DNS 14% Protein

#1 HWW

Rexburg / Ririe 6.00-6.35 4.30-4.44 4.47 4.85 4.47-4.70

Idaho Falls 8.30-8.33 4.40 4.40 4.70 4.40

Blackfoot / Pocatello 7.06 4.40 4.40 4.70 4.40

Grace / Soda Springs 6.50 4.27 4.35 4.66 4.10

Burley / Rupert 6.25 4.55 4.55 5.10 4.55

Twin Falls / Buhl Jerome / Wendell

5.00-7.50 4.40-4.80 4.60 5.04 4.70

Nampa / Weiser NA

Nezperce / Craigmont 4.71 4.50 5.26 5.50

Lewiston 5.23 4.76 5.52 5.76

Moscow / Genesee 4.74-4.93 4.53-4.67 5.29-5.54 5.53-5.86

Prices paid by Idaho Elevators delivered to warehouses in specified locations for barley and wheat on Wednesday September 16, 2020. Barley prices in $/Cwt. And wheat prices in $/bu.

#2 Feed Barley

46 lbs. --

Malting Barley

#1 SWW #1 HRW 11.5% Protein

#1 DNS 14% Protein

#1 HWW

Portland 5.20-5.30 6.10-6.45 6.37-6.57

Ogden

Great Falls 4.60-5.30 4.65-4.76 4.71-4.92

Minneapolis

Prices at Selected Terminal Markets, cash FOB Wednesday September 16, 2020. Barley prices in $/Cwt. And wheat prices in $/bu.

BARLEY—Idaho cash feed barley prices were unchanged to up $0.50 for the week ending September 16. Idaho cash malt barley prices were unchanged for the week. No net barley sales were reported by USDA FAS for the week of September 4-10.

Barley and Beer Industry News—It’s official: Scoular Co.’s new $13 million barley protein concentrate pro-cessing facility will be built in Jerome. Scoular broke ground on the facility which will process 1.9 million bushels of barley annually today. That represents almost 4% of Idaho’s total barley production and industry leaders said the new operation will provide a positive boost to Idaho’s barley industry. “It’s a great win for the Idaho barley industry,” said Idaho Barley Commission Chairman Mike Wilkins, who farms in the Rupert area. “It’s a good deal for the industry and I’m excited about it.” Idaho leads the United States in barley production and Idaho farmers produce about one-third of the nation’s total barley crop. Most of the barley produced here is grown for malt for the beer-brewing industry, while the rest is grown for human food or animal feed. Idaho growers produced 55 million bushels of barley last year off of 520,000 acres. The new operation is expected to begin manufacturing in May 2021 and is located at a site near Scoular’s existing livestock feed ingredients facility in Jerome. Scoular is a global grain, feed and food ingredient company. The 15,000-square-foot facility will produce a barley protein con-centrate that is a plant-based alternative protein used in aquaculture feed and pet food. Idaho is one of the na-tional leaders in aquaculture production and leads the nation in trout produced for food. Scoular officials in a news release said Jerome was chosen both for its proximity to barley growers and the end markets for the prod-ucts the facility will produce. The new facility is expected to add 10,000 to 12,000 new barley acres in Idaho over the next three years, said JC Olson, product group manager for Scoular.

Market News and Trends This Week

Published by the Idaho Barley Commission (IBC) weekly except for weeks with major holidays. Information included is from reliable sources and every effort is made to ensure accuracy on the date of publication, but no independent review has been made and we do not guarantee

completeness or accuracy. Use of this information is at your own discretion and risk. Editors: Laura Wilder, IBC Executive Director, lwilder@barley.idaho.gov and Wren Hernandez, IBC Office Manager, whernandez@barley.idaho.gov. Office Phone: 208-334-2090.

WHEAT—Idaho cash wheat prices were mixed for the week ending September 16. SWW prices ranged from down $0.25 to up $0.25 from the previous week; HRW prices were up $0.01 to up $0.20; DNS prices were down $0.12 to down $0.06; and HWW prices were up $0.15. USDA FAS reported net export sales for 2020/2021 for the period September 4-10 at 335,700 MT, down 31 percent week and down 42 percent from the previous 4 week average. Increases were to Indonesia (91,400 MT), the Vietnam (63,000 MT), the Philippines(56,600 MT), Mexico (55,400 MT), and Italy (35,900 MT). Exports of 564,000 MT, down 22 percent from the prior week but up 2 per-cent from the previous week, were to Indonesia (89,200 MT), the Philippines(76,600 MT), Japan (67.100 MT), China (66,300 MT), and Mexico (49,800 MT).

Wheat News—Idaho dry-land wheat rebounds thanks to wet May and June. Arbon Valley dry-land farmer Hans Hayden was initially pessimistic about this season’s wheat crop, having sustained heavy losses both to winter kill of fall wheat and hail damage during a cold spring. “The winter wheat was planted late and it got beat up by the win-ter and snow. It looked horrible,” said Hayden, who farms in Power County. “Most of it was replanted with spring wheat, and then we had hail storms in April and (early) May, which is really weird.” Timely moisture is critical for farmers who plant in Idaho’s desert environment without supplemental irrigation, and Hayden said his growing area received about 5 inches of rain in May alone. “The winter wheat that survived looks good and is yielding really well,” Hayden said. “I’m very satisfied with the yield of both the spring and the winter wheat.” Cory Kress, who farms on dry land in Power and Oneida counties in the Rockland Valley’s southern end, said his fall and spring wheat yields have both made a surprising turnaround and are well above average. “I don’t know if I would call it a record yield but it’s definitely in the top 10 on yields for southeast Idaho dry lands,” said Kress, who is a board member with the Idaho Wheat Commission.

CORN—USDA FAS reported net export sales for 2020/2021 for period September 4-10 of 1,609,200 MT, increas-es were primarily to unknown destinations (360,200 MT), China (359,700 MT), Japan (329,900 MT), South Korea (201,700 MT), and Colombia (118,400 MT). Exports of 902,000 MT were to Mexico (213,000 MT), China (209,700 MT), South Korea (138,800 MT) Colombia (118,700 MT), and Japan (114,400 MT).

Ethanol Corn Usage—DOE’s Energy Information Agency (EIA) reported ethanol production for the week ending September 11 averaged 926 thousand bbls/day –down 1.59 percent from the previous week and down 7.68 per-cent from last year. Total ethanol production for the week was 6.482 million barrels. Ethanol stocks were 19.798 million bbls on September 11, down 0.98 percent from last week and down 14.80 percent from last year. An esti-mated 91.97 million bu of corn was used in last week’s production bringing this crop year’s cumulative corn us-age for ethanol production at 144.71 billion bu. Corn used needs to average 97.986 million bu per week to meet USDA estimate of 5.1 millions bu for the crop year.

Market News and Trends This Week—continued

WHEAT FUTURES—Wheat futures prices extend rally on warm, dry weather as exports fell. Wheat futures pric-es ranged from up $0.10¼ to up $0.28¼ (per bu) under the previous week. CORN FUTURES—Corn futures prices rose for the week with a fall in exports. Corn futures prices ranged from down $0.05½ to down $0.01½(per bu) under the previous week.

CRUDE OIL FUTURES—Oil prices rose further on Wednesday, with WTI breaking $40 per barrel as Hurricane Sally continues to wreak havoc in the Gulf of Mexico.

EIA reported U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.5 million bbls/day during the week ending September 11, 2020 was 0.7 million bbls/day more than last week’s average. Refineries operated at 75.8% of capacity last week. As of September 11 there was a decrease in Crude Oil stocks of 4.389 million bbls from last week to 496.045 million bbls, over the 5-year average of 436.019 million bbls. Distillate stocks increased by 3.461 million bbls to a total of 179.306 million bbls, over the 5-year average of 146.502 million bbls; while gasoline stocks de-creased by 0.381 million bbls to 231.524 million bbls, over the 224.786 million bbl 5-year average. The national average retail regular gasoline price was $2.183 per gallon on September 14, down $0.369 from last week’s price and $0.369 under a year ago. The national average retail diesel fuel price was $2.422 per gallon, down $0.013 per gallon from last week’s level and down $0.565 from a year ago.

NYMEX Crude Oil Futures finished the week ending Thursday, September 17, 2020 to close at $40.97/bbl (October contract), up $3.64 for the week.

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Futures Market News and Trends—Week Ending September 17, 2020

FUTURES MARKET SETTLEMENT PRICES for the Week Ending Thursday, September 17, 2020:

Commodity September

2020 Week

Change December

2020 Week

Change March 2020

Week Change

May 2020 Week

Change

CHI SRW $5.56¼ $0.22½ $5.64 $0.22 $5.68¾ $0.18 $5.67¼ $0.10¼

KC HRW $4.87½ $0.14 $4.98¼ $0.27 $5.05¼ $0.23 $5.10¾ $0.12¼

MGE DNS $5.41½ $0.28¼ $5.53¼ $0.21 $5.61½ $0.16¼ $5.69 $0.15¼

CORN $3.75¼ $0.10¼ $3.84 $0.15½ $3.88¾ $0.10½ $3.91¾ $0.07¼

Crop %

Progress Previous

Week Previous

Year 5-Year

Average

Condition Rating %

Good/Excellent

Previous Week

Previous Year

US Spring Wheat Harvested 92% 82% 75% 92% - - -

ID Spring Wheat Harvested 94% 86% 88% 94% - - -

US Winter Wheat Planted 10% 5% 6% 8% - - -

ID Winter Wheat Planted 9% 5% 10% 13% - - -

US Barley Harvested 95% 85% 86% 94% - - -

ID Barley Harvested 96% 89% 93% 94% - - -

Corn Dented

Corn Mature

Corn Harvested

89%

41%

5%

79%

25%

NA

64%

16%

3%

82%

32%

5%

60% 61% 55%

Europe— Dry conditions promoted summer crops drydown and harvesting as well as winter wheat and rapeseed planting in Europe. Drought concerns were renewed in France. Dryness concerns in northeastern Bulgaria and south-eastern Romania, more rain is needed for wheat and rapeseed sowing.

Middle East– Warm, dry conditions promoted summer crop drydown and harvesting in Turkey. Cool season rain is needed for winter grain sowing.

Asia–Dry conditions favored maturing rice and cotton in northern India and Pakistan. Typhoon Haishen saturated ma-turing crops on the Korean Peninsula and in northern China. Rainfall brought much needed moisture for wet-season rice and boosted reservoirs in Thailand and the Philippines.

Australia– Showers maintained moisture supplies for reproductive winter grains and oilseeds and helped field condi-tions in advance of summer crops planting.

South America– Dry conditions in many high yielding winter grain areas in central Argentina . Sunny conditions fa-vored wheat development in southern Brazil.

Mexico– Rain across the southern plateau corn bely favored summer crops. Monsoon showers vanished from far northern watersheds.

Canada– Nighttime lows reached -2°C or lower nearly Prairie-wide, possibly causing some damage to late developing corn and soybeans but coming too late to affect most spring crops.

FSU–. Intensive drought lowered yield prospects for late-filling summer crops and left soil moisture very short supply for winter wheat planting in central Ukraine and western Russia. Sunny conditions in northern Kazakhstan and cen-tral Russia benefited spring wheat and barley harvesting. 3

West—Warm conditions with ongoing issues with smoke, haze, and reduced visibility. Breezy conditions in the Great Basin and southern California. More than seven dozen ongoing wildfires in the West.

Plains—Dry conditions are promoting fieldwork, including winter wheat planting and summer crop harvesting. As of September 13, wheat planting is making progress from 2% complete in Kansas to 20% complete in Colorado. Warm condition expanding across the northern High Plains.

Corn Belt—Morning freeze warnings in the upper Great Lakes region from northern Minnesota to northern Lower Mich-igan. Cool, dry conditions benefiting summer crop maturation in the remainder of the Midwest, South—Tropical Depression Sally is bringing heavy rainfall and flash flooding in parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Significant river flooding across southern Alabama and western Florida.

Outlook for U.S.— Tropical Depression Sally will cross Georgia and the Carolinas bring as much as 4-8 inches as addi-tional rain. Farther south, river flooding and power outages may continue for the next several days. Dry conditions in large sections of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest, and mid-South. Showers in the Northwest may aid in wildfire contain-ment. A possible tropical development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico may bring heavy rainfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Warm conditions in the northwestern half of the country. Cool conditions in the South, East, and lower Midwest. Possible frost freeze warning from the Great Lakes region in to the Northwest. The NWS 6-10 day weather outlook for September 22-26 calls for wetter than normal conditions in the Four Corners region, Deep South Texas, and Pacific Northwest. Below normal precipitation in the remainder of the country.

International Crop Weather Highlights—September 15, 2020

USDA Crop Progress/Condition Report—September 14, 2020

USDA U.S. Crop Weather Highlights—September 17, 2020

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WHEAT: The 2020/21 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged this month but there are offsetting by-class changes for wheat exports. The projected season-average farm price remains at $4.50 per bushel. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, greater exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised 3.3 million tons to 1,070.3 million, mostly on higher production in Australia and Canada more than offsetting a smaller crop in Argentina. Australia’s production is raised 2.5 million tons to 28.5 million, mainly based on the ABARES production forecast issued September 7. Canada’s production is increased 2.0 million tons to 36.0 million, primarily on the Statistics Canada forecast issued August 31. This is the second and third-highest wheat production on record for Canada and Australia, respectively. Argentina’s production is lowered 1.0 million tons to 19.5 million on continued dry conditions and possible frost damage. On net, global 2020/21 production is raised 4.5 million tons to a record high 770.5 million. World consumption is increased 0.8 million tons to 750.9 million, primarily on higher feed and residual usage for Australia and Canada. Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 1.5 million tons to 189.4 million on higher exports for Australia and Canada. The largest import change this month is for China, where imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 7.0 million on an early strong pace of U.S. sales and shipments to China and increased exportable supplies from Australia and Canada. If realized, these would be the largest China wheat imports since 1995/96. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are increased 2.6 million tons to 319.4 million to a new record, with China and India accounting for 51 and 10 percent of the total, respectively. COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced production, lower corn used for etha-nol, larger exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.9 billion bushels, down 378 mil-lion from last month on a lower yield forecast and reduction in harvested area. Corn supplies are reduced from last month, as a smaller crop more than offsets greater beginning stocks mostly due to lower estimated exports for 2019/20. Corn used for ethanol for 2020/21 is lowered 100 million bushels based on the continued slow re-covery in motor gasoline demand as a result of COVID-19. Exports are raised 100 million bushels reflecting re-duced supplies in competitor countries. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks are lowered 253 million bushels from last month. The corn price is raised 40 cents to $3.50 per bushel. This month’s 2020/21 for-eign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, with fractionally higher trade and lower stocks relative to last month. EU corn production is lowered, mostly reflecting a reduction for Romania. Ukraine corn production is down, as acute short-term drought across much of the primary growing areas lowered corn yield prospects after a WASDE-604-2 favorable start to the summer growing season. Corn production is raised for Brazil, as high do-mestic prices are expected to support an expansion in area. Corn production is also increased for India and Nige-ria. Barley production is raised for Russia, the EU, and Australia. Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2020/21 include barley export increases for Russia and Australia. Corn exports are raised for the United States, Brazil, and Mexico. Corn imports are raised for Venezuela. China’s corn feed and residual use for 2019/20 and 2020/21 is raised from last month, based on observed soybean meal equivalent protein consumption and current corn prices. Foreign corn ending stocks are lower relative to last month, as increases for India and Nigeria are more than offset by a decline for China. BARLEY: The September 11 WASDE report shows the outlook for 2020/21 U.S. barley supplies unchanged for September at 263 million bushels compared to the estimated in the August report. The September report esti-mates a projected yield of 78.8 bushels/acre with 2.2 million acres expected to be harvested. Projected use is at an estimated 178 million bushels, and projected imports at 7 million bushels. Ending stocks for 2020/21 are pro-jected to be 85 million bushels. The season-average farm price is at $4.45/bu on updated NASS prices compared to $4.45/bu in August.

WASDE World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates September 11, 2020

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