Christian G Gustiana

GM Strategic Technology Planning

TELKOMSEL

IPv4: Between Internet

Growth and Low Adoption of

IPv6

Table of Content

2

1 Current Condition

2

3

Internet Trend and Analysis

IPv6 DNA Analysis

4

5

Study Case of IPv6

Conclusion

Current ConditionTodays IPv4 Status in Every Region

3Source: https://labs.apnic.net/ipv4/report.html

Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by

Region2 Projection of consumption of Remaining RIR Address PoolsGlobal Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by

Region1 Number of Regional Internet Registry Table for IPv4

The exponential growth of multiple smart devices and the need

for each device having its own unique address is becoming a

necessity.

IPv4 addresses, the current protocol devices use to

communicate on the Internet, have exhausted the world over,

and a very small number of IPv4 addresses remain.

In 2011, the APNIC pool reached the Final /8 IPv4 address block.

APNIC encourage Asia Pacific Internet community members to

deploy IPv6 within their organizations.

From the graph, we can see that in 2018 APNIC will no longer have

IPv4 address available.

121

880

1,689

821

191

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

AFRINIC APNIC ARIN RIPENCC LACNIC

Mil

lio

ns

Internet Trend and AnalysisTraffic Forecast and The Era of IoT

4Source: 2016_Cisco VNI_Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast 2015-2020

Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by

Region1 Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by Region

Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by

Region2 Adapting to Smarter Mobile Devices

Asia Pacific will account for 45 percent of

global mobile traffic by 2020, the largest share of

traffic by any region.

North America, which had the second-largest

traffic share in 2015, will have only the fourth-

largest share by 2020,

Asia Pacific will have the second-highest

CAGR of 54 percent, increasing nearly 9-fold over

the forecast period.

Increasing number of wireless devices is one of

the main contributor to global mobile traffic growth

Global mobile device connections will grow from

7.9 Billion (2015) to 11.6 Billion (2020).

Percentage of M2M/IoT grows from 8% to 26%

within 2015-2020.

By 2020, there are 3.2 Billion M2M connections

(e.g GPS system in cars or bike, asset tracking

system in shipping and manufacturing, medical

application)

M2M/IoT

Smartphone

5

The revenue forecast by IDC encompasses

the full breadth of the IoT ecosystem

including intelligent and embedded systems

shipments, connectivity services,

infrastructure, purpose-built IoT platforms,

applications, security, analytics, and

professional services.

$7T

The Worldwide Market for IoT

Solutions in 2020.

Internet Trend and AnalysisIoT Massive Connection & Massive Economic Value

$11T $19T

McKinsey estimated the economic impact

of IoT applications by the potential benefits

they can generate such as productivity

improvements, time savings, etc. These are

not equivalent to industry revenue or

GDP, because they include value captured

by customers and consumers.

Economic Impact/Year in 2025,

Equivalent to 11% World Economy

Value at Stake, according to Cisco,

is the potential bottom-line value

(higher revenues and lower costs)

that can be created or will migrate

among companies and industries

based on their ability to harness

IoE.

IoE Creates $19 Trillion of Value

at Stake between 2013 and 2022

Source: IDC, McKinsey, Cisco

IPv6 DNA AnalysisDevices: Lead by Asia Pacific Region and M2M Has The Highest Growth

Rate

6Source: 2016_Cisco VNI_Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast 2015-2020

Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by

Region2 IPv6 Capable Devices by Device Type 2015-2020

Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by

Region1 IPv6 Capable Devices by Region 2015-2020

M2M emerges as a key segment of growth for

IPv6-capable devices

M2M is reaching 1.5 billion by 2020, an 11-fold

increase during the forecast period, with CAGR

rate 62%

Smartphones still occupied the biggest portion

of IPv6 capable devices, with more than 5

Billion population.

Regionally, Asia Pacific will lead throughout the

forecast period with the highest number of IPv6-

capable devices and connections, reaching 3.8

billion by 2020.

CAGR for Asia Pacific between 2015-2020 is

24%, which higher than global average 23%.

Region Middle East and Africa shows the

highest CAGR compare to other country with value

of 35%.

7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Perc

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tag

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f IP

v4 u

sers

(IP

v4 u

sers

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)

Percentage of IPv6 users(IPv6 users/IPv4 users)

Source: Internal Analysis, https://labs.apnic.net/ipv4/report.html

Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by

RegionPenetration of IPv4 and IPv6 in each countries

With the convergence of IPv6 device capability, content availability, and significant network deployment, the discussion of

IPv6 has shifted focus from “what if” and “how soon will” to the “realization of the potential” that IPv6 has for service

providers and end users alike.

Graph above shown comparison of percentage rate of IPv4 users from total population vs percentage rate of IPv6 users from

total IPv4 users. From the graph we can see that adoption rate of IPv6 still very low with global average of 3%.

KoreaPercentage of IPv4 Users: 92.3%

Percentage of IPv6 Users: 0.94%

BelgiumPercentage of IPv4 Users: 82.20%

Percentage of IPv6 Users: 52.94%

IndonesiaPercentage of IPv4 Users: 28.50%

Percentage of IPv6 Users: 0.26%

IPv6 DNA AnalysisNetwork: IPv6 is Deployed With Slow Rate of Adoption

MalaysiaPercentage of IPv4 Users: 67.50%

Percentage of IPv6 Users: 14.87%

GermanyPercentage of IPv4 Users: 86.20%

Percentage of IPv6 Users: 29.05%

Global Average of Percentage users IPv6:

3%United States of AmericaPercentage of IPv4 Users: 86.90%

Percentage of IPv6 Users: 34.27%

8Source: http://6lab.cisco.com/

IPv6 DNA AnalysisApplication: Global Statistic of IPv6 enabled websites

Based on AAAA request on top 500 websites/country (November 14,

2016)

Not IPv6 Enabled: 54,170

IPv6 Websites: 15,142

Not IPv6 Enabled: 57,112

IPv6 Websites: 3,430

Nov 14, 2016Nov 14, 2012

6% 22%

9

Study CaseIPv6 Deployment: Malaysia and Germany

Source: Laporan Akhir Gugus Tugas IPv6 Indonesia, http://6lab.cisco.com/

Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast by

RegionRelative Index Rank of Global IPv6 Adoption

10

1

5.7

Malaysia

Germany

Belgium

1.9

IPv6 Included in long term development plan of

Malaysia since 2005

Created National IPv6 Transition Guideline

Appointed USM as IPv6 Deployment Center

Government website must be IPv6 enabled

Created GEN6 (Government Enabled with IPv6) as

official guideline for transition process from IPv4 to IPv6

Created LIR (Local Internet Registry) de.government as

National IP Addressing Management Center

Previously had IPv6 Task Force to formulate general

policy and strategic direction for IPv6 deployment

This function later carried on by Forum Nasional

Kebijakan Nomor PI Indonesia

The relative index ranking is consolidated

metrics of IPv6 adoption, globally and at

country level, which including:

- IPv6 Prefixes Data

- Transit AS Data

- Content Data

- Users Data

1 Lowest – 10 Highest

5 7.9

Conclusion

10

1

To accelerate IPv6 adoption rate, Indonesia need to implement integrated

broadband regulation that not only include network but also the whole IPv6 DNA

ecosystem with a clear target and achievement roadmap

2

3

However, if IPv6 is considered to be mandated, IPv6 ecosystem growth

(Content, Apps, Website) should be accelerated and supported by all the internet stakeholders

Based on the previous DNA Analysis, It can be concluded that most of the ISP

globally restraint themselves on migrating IPv4 to IPv6, considering alternative

solutions still available

11

THANKYOU