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ICT tools for social and

economic development

Presentation for NetHope

24th June 2014

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Introducing myself

International consultant: Broadband Infrastructure

(strategies and policies) Smart Grids

Trans-sector/Digital Economy

BuddeComm: CEO

Smart Grid Australia: Founder and Executive Director

Global Smart Grid Federation: Founding Board Member

United Nations: Special advisor to the ITU/UNESCO

Broadband Commission for Digital

Development

Clients: International investment houses

Governments

Industry

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BuddeComm Research Senior Analysts

• Global Research Kylie Wansink

• Africa Peter Lange

• Americas Lucia Bibolini

• Asia Peter Evans

• Australia Paul Budde

• Europe Henry Lancaster

• Middle East Kylie Wansink

• South Pacific Stephen McNamara

Research support team: Julie Cooney, Sue Grant, Ian Wood

In total close to 100 years of research experience

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Research Methodology

• Our research is based on both primary and secondary research.

• For this we employ senior analysts supported by a network of

experts, industry contacts and researchers from around the

world.

• Strong points are our strategic and policies analyses in relation

to the development of new fast broadband infrastructure (fixed

and mobile).

• Statistical data and strategic analyses of all aspects of the

telecommunications market and industry

• On the service side we specialise in areas such as: smart grids,

smart buildings, smart cities, e-commerce, e-health, e-learning,

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Changing world of telecoms

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Societal changes

• Societies and economies are in transition.

• By 2050 there will be 9 billion people.

• We can’t manage the world as per 1950 with 2.5 billion people.

• Technology is increasingly putting the citizen in the driver’s seat.

• The market place is no longer local but global.

• Jobs from developed country will flow to developing countries.

• Massive sector transformation: healthcare, education, government,

energy.

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Economic changes

• Old society and business model are faltering: finance, retail, media, books.

• e-models are flourishing (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon).

• What makes the new models attractive: 50%+ lower costs.

• Key to success is digital productivity.

• Developed countries will have to transform its economy (new jobs)

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Market and industry development

• Internet broke vertical integrated model of telcos – Google

• iPhone - broke the vertical integrated mobile model

• OTT and Apps are now driving innovations and competition

• Telcos and mobile operators – infrastructure providers

• M2M, data centres and analytics are driving this further

• Infrastructure (broadband) back on government’s policy agenda

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Effects on major players

• Monopolisation in the US market – end of Net Neutrality

• Structural changes in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, several European countries

• Most telcos are relegated to utility providers (kicking and screaming)

• Real market power is now in the hands of the OTT/App industry

• Further structural changes will follow

• Healthcare, education, government services, energy will claim their own position

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Broader effects of change in technology

• Voice market will change (WhatApps) integration in e-models

• Apps will change entertainment and media markets (TV, movies, sport)

• ICT will transform energy market (distributed energy)

• Crowd funding, crowd sourcing are changing business, accommodation, healthcare

• Advertising will move to permission based marketing (from CRM to VRM)

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The Digital Economy and

Business Transformation in

Developing Economies

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United Nations Millennium Development Goals

• Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

• Achieve universal primary education

• Promote gender equality and empower women

• Reduce child mortality

• Improve maternal health

• Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

• Ensure environmental sustainability

• Develop a global partnership for development

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Broadband Commission – Action Plan

• Connecting broadband with the MDGs and knowledge societies

• Benefiting from transformational change

• Using transparent, fair, competitive, technology-neutral models

• Enabling content and applications development

• Employing broadband to help combat climate change

• Accelerating broadband access for women and girls

• Supporting wider broadband inclusion for all

• Broadband evaluation and monitoring

• Building global partnerships for broadband development

• Next steps for broadband partnerships and projects

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The Trans-sector Concept

• Holistic approach to ICT infrastructure based on open networks and sharing policies

• Calls for leadership at the top, directing the various silos to work together

• Digital economy

• E-learning and tele-education

• E-health and tele-medicine

• E-government (social services)

• Sustainability and smart energy,

• HANs, smart grids, EV, PV

• Digital media

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ICT Infrastructure Requirements

• Robust infrastructure

• Ubiquitous

• Affordable

• Secure

• Low latency

• High speed

• Capacity for high volumes

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How to move forward

• Government leadership (national infrastructure)

• Positive policies (healthcare, education, etc)

• Regulation (structural/functional separation)

• Tax incentive

• Government initiative (Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Korea)

• Telco initiative (Scandinavia)

• Google initiative (Kansas City)

This will stimulate investments and industry transformation

• Infrastructure

• IT services (cloud, data centres, analytics, IoT)

• Retail

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Global Developments

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Key developments in Europe

• Slow economic recovery retarding telecom network investment;

• Spectrum auctions bringing much needed cash to national treasuries, enabling MNOs to deliver national LTE coverage through to 2015/16;

• Telcos’ emphasis on vectoring VDSL to satisfy Digital Agenda broadband targets;

• Pan-European effort against cybercrime via the Horizon 2020 program;

• Preponderance of communities’ driven FttP networks;

• Rapid development of LTE networks enabling MNOs to capitalise on VAS.

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Key developments in North America

• FCC encouraged to lift legal restrictions on municipal/state broadband projects

• FttP a significant growth area, stimulated by non-telcos (municipalities, Google Fiber)

• LTE market the most developed globally

• Further market consolidation (Comcast-TWC) would reinforce monopoly of broadband provision

• Canadian 700MHz auction (February 2014) facilitating cross-border LTE roaming arrangements

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Key developments in Asia

• Mobile telephone services remain central to industry development in Asia

• Internet development in Asia is sharply divided between the developed and the developing markets

• Demand for data is surging - mainly happening in the leading markets

• A growing group of countries and operators in Asia have been moving into Voice over LTE (VoLTE)

• R&D laboratories / Incubation centres

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Key developments in the Middle East

• High mobile penetration levels – pressure on growth/voice revenue decline.

• Operators moving into fixed services, expanding in other countries, improving mobile packages

• One of the hottest markets for smart phone growth worldwide, behind Latin America.

• Jordan emerging as a regional tech start-up hub due to an ICT focused education system, low start up costs and business-friendly government.

• Lack of adequate delivery infrastructure remains impediment to digital media development.

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Key developments in Africa

• Fastest growing continent at more than 5% GDP growth

• Fastest growing mobile market in the world, moving to 4G

• Improved international fibre connectivity leads to national fibre rollouts

• Enormous growth potential for broadband

• Growing threat of cyber crime (Nigeria and others)

• International fibre capacity available to sub-Saharan Africa has multiplied hundred-fold in just three years to around 25Tb/s – theoretically enough for each of the almost one billion inhabitants of the region to download 8GB per month.

• Commercial LTE networks are already operational in 7 African countries.

• Silicon Savannah

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Key developments in South America

• Sustained economic growth in key markets (Argentina, Brazil)

• Commercial LTE in three countries, trials in several others

• Continuing mobile subscriber growth in absence of fixed-line

investment

• New submarine cables (Brazil, Ecuador) reducing cost of

broadband services

• Telecom market concentration and slow regulatory advances

inhibiting new entrants

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Thank you

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