ICT Slovenia...The Battle for Power: The Digital Giants Are Too Big Digital Giants Rule Together,...

CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY

This presentation, including any supporting materials, is owned by Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates and is for the sole use of the intended Gartner audience or other intended recipients. This presentation may contain information that is confidential, proprietary or otherwise legally protected, and it may not be further copied, distributed or publicly displayed without the express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

© 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Anthony Harrington PhD

Gartner Executive Programs

18th April 2018

Living and Working in the Emerging Digital Society

ICT Slovenia

#GartnerSYM 1 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.

Key Issues

1. What are the macro societal and business trends driving the

emergence of the Digital Society?

2. What will the Digital Society look like?

3. The need for a new social contract for Digital Society

4. Organizing the new Digital Society – Civilization Infrastructure


Societal Demographic

Tremors The Big,

Smart City The Power

of Me

Business Digital

Business The Digital Workplace

Ecosystems and Platforms

Top Business and Societal Trends Driving Digital Business and the Emerging Digital Society


Demographic Tremors: A Population Out of Balance

the size of global middle class by 2020 to 3.2 billion

2x

-year-olds world's fastest age cohort 60

decline in workforce in 40 regions by 2020 10%

Sources: United Nations (UN), U.S. Government


of world's population living in cities by 2020

*By 2030 78% of Europeans will live in a city

55%

connected things in smart cities by 2019 5B

urban consumption growth from 32 cities between 2015 and 2030

$7T

The Big, Smart City: Reurbanization Grows

Sources: UN, Gartner, McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)


Digital Business: The (Inevitable) Path to Business Model Change

of all activities will involve one of the top seven digital giants by 2021

20%

of businesses that have implemented some form of digital business initiative

75%

impact on customer experience and engagement impact from digital business

No. 1

Gartner for IT Leaders Tool

Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view to examine the Notes text.

6 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY I © 2017 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

The Battle for Power: The Digital Giants Are Too Big

Digital Giants Rule

Together, 3.2B digital users.

Apple's fiscal 2016 revenue, $216B, would make it a Top 50 country (by GDP).

Facebook had 1.86B active users in 2016 — would make it the largest country in the world (by population).

Network effect — winner takes all; users are locked in.

The Old World and New World Collide

2015: DPA, Belgium's privacy regulator, took Facebook to court in Belgium. Facebook refused to recognize the regulator's jurisdiction.

2017: EU fines Facebook for WhatsApp/Facebook integration, despite earlier promises.


Digital Workplace: Man, Machine or Both?

of total workforce by 2020 will be millennials 40%

jobs lost to disruptive labor market changes (like automation) by 2020

5.1M

workers who will be positively influenced by an algorithm by 2020

1B

Sources: The World Economic Forum, Deloitte, Gartner




-0,5

0,5

1,5

2,5

3,5

4,5

5,5

6,5

7,5

8,5

9,5

10,5

-0,5

0,5

1,5

2,5

3,5

4,5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mili

jon

i

Mili

jon

i

Jobs eliminated

Jobs created

Cumulative net effect 2015-2025

The Net Effect of AI Job Creation/Elimination Is Positive

-233K Net job loss until 2019

Break

Even

in 2020: (-) 1.8M jobs (+) 2.3M jobs

+10M Cumulative net new jobs, 2015-2025


Platforms and Ecosystems: Extending Your Reach

average number of digital partners for EMEA companies by 2018

127

trillion stable connections by 2020 220

number of industries with new market leaders from platform strategies by 2020

25%


Key Issues









The online world affects the physical world

Physical context drives online experience

Things become part of the interaction

What Is the Digital Society?

Society

A society is a group of

people engaged in

persistent social

interaction

Digital

Digital is the blending of the

physical world and virtual

world

#DigitalSociety: The collection of people and things that are engaged in continuous interaction

(Digital society = e-government — society is about the people; government about the management)

A Digital Society Is Emerging …

Autonomous technologies

More and less human

Virtual and physical blend

SEK

Virtual social interactions

Established Best Practices Don't Work Anymore …

Data ownership

Uncanny valley

Privacy

Monetization




Trust Is the Basis of Every Connection — and Is at an All-Time Low

55 53 48 42 53 52

43 41

NGOs Business Media Government

2016 201750%

distrust

neutral

trust

53% globally believe the system is failing them. 49%

believe technological innovations are happening too fast and are leading to changes that are not good.

Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2017


Fear?

Ignore?


Relate!

Freedom!

Connect!


Key Issues







Digital connectivism describes how people and

things exist and interact in

the global ecosystem of

digital connections, and how

this shapes a digital society


We all have a digital identity

We need to be connected in order to exist

We do not differentiate

people and things

We value connections through context

We care for our connections




AI and autonomous systems get "agency" —

the capacity to act in a certain environment:

– Sufficiently complex to get unpredictable levels of

interaction.

– Can practically display independent behavior.

– Behaviors do have moral impact.

The EU is calling for legal recognition of

"electronic persons." Much potential impact

on law, governance, business, social

interaction, taxes, education, etc.

Next to People and Business, Things Have "Agency"

Digital Society

Traditional Society

Natural Person Legal Entity +

Natural Person

Legal Entity

Things

User as Operator

User as Interactor

Interactor

There Is No Such Thing as a User

Anymore …

Inner civilization,

virtue

Don't Shout at Siri

Offensive to others

Empathy issues





people and things



What Is Digital Identity?

Identity is the combination of how we look at

ourselves, and how others look at us.

A merge of your virtual and physical identity.

Who you are, the way you think about

yourself, the way you are viewed by the world

and the characteristics that define you.

A continuity of memories and experiences, a

narrative. You're a dataset?

"A person is a person only through other

people" (Ubuntu) — connections.

Perform mundane

tasks

Represent communications

"Distributed Self"

Drive desirable behaviors

Data profiles

Your

Is About Connections

4.7 devices

5.54 social media

100s profiles




Digital Privacy Is a Context, Not a Place

Privacy Is State of Mind Privacy Is a Place Privacy Is a Context

When Middle Ages and before Post-Enlightenment #DigitalSociety

Situation Limited property (no

bedroom, no bathroom)

Anonimity of urban living;

(yards to create space,

wealth information protected)

Our smartphone is our home;

our identity is distributed

Protection Mindset (smiling in the face of

power; using codes)

Physical security measures

(locks) Algorithms determine access

Pressure Confessions try to open the

state of mind

Clues needed to show social

status ("size of your fence")

The convenience of

interaction

Laws Forbidden to lie Warrants to search Border controls check social

media accounts

Force of change Property Technology TBD…

Digital Twins

If You're Not Connected, You Might as Well Not Exist





people and things



Confirmation bias

Amplification

Triangulation

Good Connections, Bad Connections — Variety


Many digital business models suffer

from "value asymmetry" — the value

is created elsewhere (users) from

where it is received (advertisers).

"If you don't pay for the product, you

are the product."

As digital business models advance,

more ways to create value symmetry

will emerge.

Value Asymmetry in current digital business models

~90% of revenue comes from advertising

~97%

$60 The cost of its LinkedIn acquisition per subscriber

of revenue comes from advertising

Towards More Advanced Business Models

Transformation impact

Data Sales

Digita-lization

Metered Revenue

Risk Sharing

Eco- platform

New Industries




We start to see the Shifting Focus of Technology: From Business to Society

Traditional Themes

Operational excellence, customer experience, risk management

To Feed the World

Precision planting and other digital agriculture initiatives show 8% to 12% increase in crop yield

The potential is as much as 25%

To Heal the World

U.S. 65+ year-old population to double between 2012 and 2050

Health care spending represented 17.9% of the U.S. economy in 2016

Amazon, JPMorgan Chase and Berkshire Hathaway are partnering totransform the American health care system


Key Issues





4. Civilization Infrastructure - Organizing the new Digital Society


We, as public and private sector enterprises, will collectively build the world's

Civilization Infrastructure


Civilization Infrastructure is the convergence of the digital world with the newly connected world of critical infrastructure to

meet the needs of a Digital Society.




The Digital Platform Fuels Civilization Infrastructure

AR/VR

Biometrics

3D printing

Internet of Things

API

Blockchain

AI

MDM


Today, we barely notice the electricity, roads, communications networks and more that are all around us. That is what it is like when infrastructure just works

and we lead our everyday lives …


… as we build Civilization Infrastructure, we will one day barely notice the capabilities around us, but we will not

fail to notice the improvements in healthcare, education, transportation, governing and financial systems that

will result from it.


Recommended Gartner Research

CIOs Should Start Preparing Now for the Digital Society Frank Buytendijk and Jorge Lopez (G00324377)

Six Ways to Earn New Digital Revenue Hung Lehong (G00319182)

Introducing Digital Connectivism: A New Philosophy for the Digital Society Frank Buytendijk (G00314838)

Exploiting the Value of Digital Business With Digital Economics Saul Judah and Michael Smith (G00311450)

Digital Business KPIs: Defining and Measuring Success Hung LeHong (G00297283)

For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.

https://www.gartner.com/document/3620017?ref=solrAll&refval=181107116&qid=ca1d31bea725c47a474fb23658647d81







http://www.gartner.com/document/3534844?ref=solrResearch&refval=181107322&qid=4eccacedf4c294dfef0b7d7aecaad685

https://www.gartner.com/document/3499717?ref=solrAll&refval=178050493&qid=b0deca1f7268deed87166cee96cb97a9



http://www.gartner.com/document/3418917?ref=solrAll&refval=172829098&qid=8089e7048fbbaf651f965877fc935530

http://www.gartner.com/document/3237920?ref=solrAll&refval=172829124&qid=cb81dcc0879346f1abbec855f260bcc4

ICT Slovenia...The Battle for Power: The Digital Giants Are Too Big Digital Giants Rule Together,...

Documents

Transcript of ICT Slovenia...The Battle for Power: The Digital Giants Are Too Big Digital Giants Rule Together,...