ICT Research Institute is a research strength of the University of Wollongong

Transport Commons:A public transport service based on my

timetable

Farzad Safaei

ICT Research Institute is a research strength of the University of Wollongong

2

Are Cities Scalable?

More than 56% of us live in cities

Farzad SafaeiSlide 3

The ‘evidence’

• As cities grow, going from A to B seems to get more difficult

• Investment in transport infrastructure growing faster than GDP– But we always seem to be in a catch up mode

3

Farzad SafaeiSlide 4

Area = a2

The model

a

ε εRoad Length= a2/ Area∝

Population Area∝

Farzad SafaeiSlide 5

Transport infrastructure scalability

A 2k

3 1

w0

2

ε

ε

p

3/2

A εw0

p3/2

Total Road Surface

Area

Congestion level

Population of road users during the

peak period

Farzad SafaeiSlide 6

b

e

a

The model

Mean distance

a / 3; ∝ Area

Growth rate of p

Number of Registered cars and station wagons in Australia

Source: ABS Motor Vehicle Census, Australia (9309.0)

Average Annual Growth Rate 1960 – 20104.2%

Farzad SafaeiSlide 8

The scalability impact of p3/2

Assuming

• GDP growth rate of 3% pa

• Normalizing with respect to 1960 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Transport cost (per-centage of GDP)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

5

10

15

20

25

Actual normalized cost

Farzad SafaeiSlide 9

The transport infrastructure scalability

A εw0

p3/2

Population of road users during the

peak period

Congestion level

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100123456789

Congestion metric due to CPI based investment

increase

ICT Research Institute is a research strength of the University of Wollongong

The Transport Commons

10

The paradox

Billion Passenger km

Source: ABS, Bureau of Transport Economics – Working Paper 38

Urban Passenger Transport Usage

Car

BusRail

Farzad SafaeiSlide 12

The paradox

We are faced with the shortage of transport services while a

massive over-supply of transportation resources is

choking our streets.

Farzad SafaeiSlide 13

‘Solutions’

• Congestion taxes

• Discouraging ownership of cars

• Banning cars to enter city– Selective ban based on number plates

• Push the congestion load to cars– Allocated lanes for trams or buses– Allocated lanes for car pooling

It is all about the ‘stick’ – but we are not empowering people to do anything about this

From:

To:

Submit

Home

Work

Transport Commons

Private TaxiPick up: 13 min Cost: $27.50ETD: 45 min

Available rides:

Shared TaxiMultiple options Cost: $3 - $4ETD: 47-52min

Transport Commons Multiple options Reward: 250 pointsETD: 43-65min

Transport Commons

Pick up: 2 minETD: 47 min

Pick up: 5 minETD: 52 min

Transport Commons

Farzad SafaeiSlide 18

“What is common to the greatest number gets the least amount of care”

Aristotle

The Commons Dilemma

“We are locked into a system of ‘fouling our own nest’ so long as we behave as independent,

rational, free enterprises”

G. Hardin, ‘Tragedy of Commons’

Farzad SafaeiSlide 19

The Commons Dilemma

• Failure of the doctrine of “Invisible Hand”– Individual and group rationality lead to

different outcomes

• Leads to– Over-exploitation– Under-provision

Farzad SafaeiSlide 20

The Power of Commons

• We need the management of commons to be– Accountable– Able to enforce rules– Able to moderate supply and demand– Able to incentivize the right behaviour– Able to weed out perverse incentives

Farzad SafaeiSlide 21

The Transport Commons

• You may consider registering yourself and your vehicle– Pass some safety checks– A free device to be installed in your vehicle

• Anytime that you wish, you may consider donating your trip to the commons

Farzad SafaeiSlide 22

Farzad SafaeiSlide 23

ETD: 43 min; Expected Revenue: 2500 points

ETD: 34 min; Expected Revenue: 1800 points

Farzad SafaeiSlide 24

Not hitch hiking !

• The system knows who was picked up by who– And the providers are screened

• There is opportunity to report incidences or inappropriate behavior– Panic button

• Possible to provide community ‘ratings’

• Possible to enforce user preferences – Social networking on wheels!

Farzad SafaeiSlide 25

Large-scale car pooling !

Currently, car pooling depends on– Serendipity– Face-to-face negotiations– Awkward social protocols– I am at the mercy of someone else’s timetable– Is not scalable

Transport Commons service takes care of all this

Farzad SafaeiSlide 26

Service Viability

Farzad SafaeiSlide 27

Influence of city topology

Farzad SafaeiSlide 28

The economic considerations

• The marginal cost of providing this service is almost zero

• The benefits are huge

• Therefore, contribution to the transport commons benefits everyone – it is public good

Farzad SafaeiSlide 29

Our Architecture

Can also be used in other contexts

TCM Route Server

TCM road status Server

Pricing and incentive models

Social Networking

models

Payment systems

VANET + 3G

Farzad SafaeiSlide 30

Challenges

• Technical

• Legal and regulatory

• Social and cultural acceptance– Trust

• Economic incentivisation models

• Cross impact on other public transportation systems

• Transitional models

More than just building an ‘app’