ICT Outlook 2011
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ICT Outlook 2011 Seoul 22 nd February, 2011
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Frost & Sullivan outlook of ICT market in Asia Pacific
Transcript of ICT Outlook 2011
ICT Outlook 2011
Seoul 22nd February, 2011
Agenda
• 09:00 – 09:30 : Outlook 2011: The Overall ICT Perspective,
Nitin Bhat, Partner & Head of ICT Practice
• 09:30 – 10:10 : Telecoms Outlook 2011
Jayesh Easwaramonmy, Vice President,
• 10:30 – 11:10 : Cloud Computing: What is in Store?
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• 10:30 – 11:10 : Cloud Computing: What is in Store?
Nitin Bhat
• 11:10 – 11:40 : Collaboration: What is the Outlook?
Sunghoon Hong, Consultant
• 11:40 – 12:00 : Q&A and End of Briefing
Outlook 2011: The Overall ICT Perspective
Nitin Bhat
Agenda
1
2
State of the Industry
ICT Outlook
4
#1: Aggressive phase of Mobilization gains momentum
Voice centric
Initial seeding to
monetize 3G networks
Market Seeding Phase Pre 2008
Data Deluge phase2008-10
2015
Packet data exceeded
voice data on mobile
networks in 2010
Growth driven by large
screen – PC centric
Multi-device world
Smartphone is mass
market -Smartphones
to be 60% of mobile
sub base in APAC
Value of Mobility exceeds the Value of incremental bandwidth at home
5
monetize 3G networks screen – PC centric
and early rise of
smartphones
More mobile BB
devices than fixed BB
devices
sub base in APAC
Developed markets to
carry 8-10 IP devices
Internet of things
#2: Tablet PCs are a game changer for both consumers and enterprisesAfter a brief slowdown in 2009, globally the PC market is expected to retain an
impressive pace of growth
218.5239.4
271.2287 292.7
351.3384.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2014
Global PC Sales (Units)
• The proportion of Mobile PCs (including
Laptops, Notebooks, Netbooks, Tablet PCs)
has surpassed that of Desktop PCs
• Currently the share of Tablet PCs is estimated
at around 10% of the Portable PC market
6
• The most common applications of the tablet
are for consumers to access “content”
(reading, video, games) online and offline
• Apple will have a commanding share of global
market while initiatives by NEC, Dell, Toshiba,
Samsung will accelerate the device adoption4% 8% 10% 12%
15%
57%60% 62% 63% 63%
39%32%
29%25%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Tablet PCs Portable PCs (minus Tablets) Desktop PCs
Forecast Incremental Market Share for PCs
#3: IPTV in its current form is dead on arrival
IPTV only works if
Comparable channels to cable – Korea, France , HK
Regulatory issues cleared
Smart TV
Started off with simple premise – I want Youtube on my TV
Is now getting integrated with apps world like the
7
Content must provide clauses
If not7 IPTV is not a comparable TV services and the on-demand feature is not high on consumer demand
with apps world like the smartphone
Leading to new business models like LG – Orange or LG –DIvX TV
Looks like TV manufacturers will use global scale to ‘capture aggregation value’
#4: Touchscreen ubiquity is redefining user experience
• Falling Prices
• Ease of integration of touchscreen ICs
• Improvements in building technology
Drivers
Mobile Phones
PCs
Mobile Internet Devices
8
Devices
Banners and Hoardings
Tourism and Entertainment
#5: Telco wholesale business models are evolving
A pure play wholesaler is born • Broadband as a national utility
and GDP accelerator
• Financial returns
• Change in market structure to
facilitate investments
• New models of infrastructure
development especially on
OSS BSS to help RSPs
flourish
9
• Pure spread play necessitates
service innovation with
prudent cost management
• Different Models – BT
Wholesale, Opennet , Chorus
(NZ)
• Commercial emulation
through JVs –
KPN/Reggefiber, other
European JVs
#6: Telcos are evolving to smart enable businesses
Transform to Enable
Telecom as a sector
Telecom inside
Predominantly
consumer focused Smart enabler
� Marketing & Advertising
Illustrative
10
Consumer Segment
Business Segment
� Marketing & Advertising
� Over the Top Experience
� Content Delivery
� ICT services
� Cloud paradigm
� Industry enhancement
APAC ex Japan Cloud Computing Market Size, 2010
#7: Increasing adoption has created a > US$1.1 billion Cloud Computing market
9% 1%
100% = US$1.1 billion
11
Source: Frost & Sullivan
90%
SaaS IaaS PaaS
With a 90% share of the market, SaaS is the dominant segment of the With a 90% share of the market, SaaS is the dominant segment of the Cloud market in the Asia Pacific region.Cloud market in the Asia Pacific region.
Adoption level and type of cloud
10%
� Amongst cloud users, 91% use SaaS, 69% IaaS, 47% PaaS. � 1/3rd of cloud users currently use all three. � Points to a decreased time to adoption amongst existing users
#7: Almost one-fourth of enterprises in APAC have started using Cloud Computing
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77%
6%
7%
23%
Not adopted yet Public cloud Private cloud Hybrid cloud
Source: Frost & Sullivan
N = 330
#8: Social Networks + Collaboration is driving richer communication in an enterprise
Cloud ServicesCloud Services
Big Big
• Web Collaboration
• Video Conferencing
Synchronous
13
Social AppsSocial Apps
Big Opportunity?
Big Opportunity? • Project Management &
Team Collaboration
• Social Applications (Wikis, Blogs, Communities etc.)
• Content Management solutions
Asynchronous
Agenda
1
2
State of the Industry
ICT Outlook
14
Top 10 Mega Trends for the future
1. Urbanization: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities
2. E-Mobility: Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be
Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020
3. Social Trends: Geo Socialization and Generation Y
4. SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits
5. World War 3: Cyber Warfare
15
5. World War 3: Cyber Warfare
6. RoboSlaves: Pervasive robotic technology with AI
7. Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology
8. Innovating to Zero!: Zero Emission Technologies
9. Emerging Transportation Corridors
10. Healthcare economics inflection: Shift to prevention and monitoring from diagnosis and treatment
#1: The next 10 years would be very different from the last 10 years
Penetration
Till 2010
Growth in connected
devices
Till 2020
0.9
5
6
80
Connections (bn) Connected devices (bn)
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Explosive growth >12% Mature Growth
Telecom Outside
Telecom inside
4-5%
� Smart enabler � Acquisition focused
#2: Future of Telcos, 7well, it will be a “?”
“Google wants telcos to deliver networks with the service quality and security needed to produce a great end-user experience (of Google).”
Dr. Eric Schmidt, Google CEO Innovation mostly happening outside
telcos
Commoditization of networks
accelerates
17
““Some people” want AT&T to act as a dumb pipe that just keeps getting bigger and bigger.”
Former AT&T CEO Ed Whitacre
accelerates
• Fixed line – 100 yrs
• Mobile voice – 20 yrs
• Mobile data – 10 yrs
• Cloud computing – 5 yrs
Telco stocks – are becoming a dividend
play
#3: Shift from PC to Mobile Computing Era is perfect storm
• Appification of all Telco services by 2015
• Over 2 mn apps
• By 2015, Mobile BB users will be twice of fixed BB users
Increasing penetration of
Mobile Devices; Greater than PCs
Open OS Platforms Encouraging Development of a range of applications
18
• Soft SIMs to be a reality
• LTE • Augmented
Reality
• 2 GHZ of processing Power with rapid advances in battery and screens
• Tablets to be 16% of base
Maturity of several technologies
End-to-End Virtualization
Reducing Demands from
Consumer Devices
#4: IPTV will move to Smart TV as part the broader Smart Home evolution Smart TVs will account for 50% of the developed market TVs by 2013
19
Swapping of content from
Mobile to TVTV Manufacturer Portals OTT Set Top Box based
#5: Wholesale models will cover greater areas of network infrastructure
A mobile operator today is faced with complex challenges
Mobile emulates fixed broadband
Leading to a change in economics of mobile broadband
Backhaul Kbps per provisioned user
40
...
At 4-5 GB per month 1Pay as you go
Avg = 200 MB Flat rate with fair usage policy
Avg =1 GB
Passive Infrastructure
Sharing –
Common Tower Co – GTL
Transmission
Infrastructure Sharing –Evaluated/Commercial
20
Current
3
• 12-15 times increase in
backhaul capacity
• More number of cells to
manage RAN capacity
• Limited availability of
spectrum
...
Fully unlimited package
Avg = 3-5 GB
Heavy p2p users
MB/month/user
Evaluated/Commercial
/Backhaul Monetization –
Pooling –Net4Mobility JV -4G , MBNL
3G (Tmobile and 3),
Active Sharing/ Pure
Wholesale – Harbinger
Capital , TOT MVNOs
The Home Network Mobility on steroids Internet of things
‘S’ City
Planning
‘S’ Business‘S’ Citizen
‘S’ Buildings
#6: The connected future would be drive significant changes around business models, GTM strategies and margins
21
• 8-10 Devices per home
• Universal Remote
6 bn
• 5-6 Devices per individual
• Touch as the default input
mechanism
20 bn
• Smart cities
24 bn
‘S’
Energy
‘S’ Mobility
#7: Cloud Computing Model will see Acceleration and will drive further IT commoditization
Mainframe Era PC / Client-ServerEra
Internet Era Cloud Computing
Factors driving market transition :
- Inefficient IT usage- Ubiquitous broadband- Increasing commoditization
of IT resources
22
1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s
Mainframe Era - Hardware focused
- Centralized
- Dumb terminals
Era - Prominence of
software
- De-Centralized
- Power to the user
Internet Era - Ubiquitous access
- “Webification” of
Apps
- Enterprise mobility
Cloud ComputingEra - Utility basis
- Multi-tenant
- Self-service
Source: Frost & Sullivan
#8: Collaborative Communications would be further driven by the pervasiveness of video in the enterprise
Video Conf/
TelePresence Enterprise
Social Software
Pervasive
Video
3D/ Virtual
PresenceAudio Web Conf
Augmented
Collaboration
23
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
IP Tel
IM/Presence
Hosted UC
Presence
2000 2010 2015
KTS/PBX
Conf
Context &
Presence-Aware
Processes
24
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For Additional Information
Donna Jeremiah
Corporate Communications
Asia Pacific
+603 6204 5832
Mi Ok Lee
Corporate Communications
Asia Pacific - Korea
+82 2 6710 2033
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Nitin Bhat
Partner
Asia Pacific
ICT
+65 6890 0999
