ICLR: Global change and catastrophic loss
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Global changes and catastrophic loss Glenn McGillivray Managing Director Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction November 2014
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ICLR
Mission - reduce loss of life and property caused
by severe weather and earthquakes
Created in 1997 by the insurance community to
confront rising disaster losses
Multi-disciplinary research and education
provides an essential foundation for ‘science to
action’
30 scientists / 100+ students / 12+ universities /
350+ research papers / $50+ million in research
University of Western Ontario affiliated
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In the media
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ICLR board Kathy Bardswick (Chair)
President & Chief Executive Officer, The Co-operators Group
Barbara Bellissimo
Chief Agent & Senior Vice President, State Farm Canada
Charmaine Dean
Dean of Science, Western University
Louis Gagnon
President, Service & Distribution, Intact Insurance
Andrew N. Hrymak
Dean, Professor, Chemical and Biochemical Engineering,
Western University
Paul Kovacs
Executive Director, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
Sharon Ludlow
President, Aviva Insurance Company of Canada
Brian Timney
Dean of Social Science, Western University
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Considerations
Disasters are a serious threat
Losses are rising. Why?
What can be done about it?
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Number of cat. events 1970-2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Swiss Re, sigma
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Insured losses 1970-2014(1H)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Source: Swiss Re, sigma
USD billion at 2005 prices USD billion at 2005 prices Minimum selection criteria:
Total losses USD 89.2 m
Or:
Insured property claims
Shipping: USD 19.3 m
Aviation: USD 38.6 m
Other: USD 48.0 m
Or:
Casualties
Dead or missing: 20
Injured: 50
Homeless: 2 000
$19 billion
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Insured losses by peril
CLIMATE RELATED
EARTHQUAKES VOLCANOES
GEOPHYSICAL Earthquake, volcanic eruption
METEOROLOGICAL Severe weather, winter & tropical storms, hail, tornado
HYDROLOGICAL River & flash flood, storm surge, landslide
CLIMATOLOGICAL Heatwave, freeze, wildland fire, drought
TREND
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Number of victims 1970-2013
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Natural catastrophes Man-made disasters
Left hand scale: logarithmic. Source: Swiss Re, sigma No 2/2006
Storm in
Bangladesh
Earthquake in Peru
Earthquake
Tangshan, China
Cyclone
Gorki,
Bangladesh
EQ, tsunami
Indian
Ocean
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Global disaster damage
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s(TD)
Annual insurance disaster claims, billions, adjusted for inflation
20+ fold increase since
1970s!
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Canadian catastrophes
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Canadian catastrophes
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World risk index
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Canadian disaster damage
Number of events
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Meteorological - Hydrological Geological
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Canadian catastrophes
10 killed/100 evacuated/community
assistance required/historically
significant/community unable to recover on
its own
Based on data from the Canadian Disaster Database, Public Safety Canada
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Canadian catastrophes
Primary concern rests with flood and earthquake (the latter on the west coast and the Ottawa/Montreal corridor)
Many instances of flood, few of EQ Though when (not if) a major earthquake strikes
the west coast, damage will likely be severe 13 great earthquakes along this fault in the last
6,000 years Five richter 7+ events in the last 130 years in
southwest B.C. and northern Washington state Seattle earthquake, February 28, 2001, R 6.8 Will happen again, just a matter of when Are we ready?
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EQ scenarios
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Canadian catastrophes
Hurricanes seldom impact Canada
Usually just remnants when they do hit Biggest concern is on the east coast
Forest fire becoming a concern as developments
grow and interface with wildlands
Tornado risk also increasing due to growing
development
Misc. risks such as ice storm, blizzard, hail etc.
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Canadian cats 2009
Winter storms in eastern Canada (Feb. 2)
$25 million
Hamilton rain (July 26)
$100- to $150 million
Alberta wind etc. (August 2-3)
$500 million
Mont Laurier tornado (August 4)
$6 million
Manitoba hail etc. (August 13-15)
$50- to $75 million
Ontario tornadoes (August 20)
$50- to $100 million
Tropical storms Bill & Danny (August 23 & 29)
$10 & 25 million
Source: Aon Benfield (Canada)
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Canadian cats 2010
Saskatchewan storms (Spring)
Leamington & Harrow tornadoes (June 6)
Midland tornado (June 23)
Calgary hailstorm (July 12)
>$400 million
Hurricane Igor (September 21)
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Canadian cats 2011
Storms in Ontario & Quebec (March)
Storms in Ontario & Quebec (April)
Wildfire in Slave Lake, Alberta (May 15)
$700 million
Flooding in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec (Spring)
Hail, tornadoes and wind in Alberta, Man. & Sask. (July
18/19)
Tornado in Goderich (August 21)
Hurricane Irene (August 28 to 30)
Alberta windstorm (November 27)
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Canadian cats 2012
Flooding and wind in Ontario and Quebec (May 26 to 29)
Flooding, wind and hail in Alberta (July 12)
Flooding, wind and hail in Ontario (July 23)
Hail and wind in Alberta (July 26)
Flooding, wind and hail in Alberta (August 12)
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Canadian cats 2013
Two small events early in the year
Southern Alberta flood (June 19-21)
$1.7 billion
GTA flood (July 8-9)
$940 million
Ontario/Quebec storm (July 19)
Ontario/Quebec/Atlantic ice storm (December 22-26)
$200+ million
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High River, Alberta, Canada
© 2013 Reuters
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June 23, 2013
© 2013 Reuters/Andy Clark
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Trans-Canada Highway, Alberta
© 2013 AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jonathan Hayward
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Calgary, Alberta, Canada
© 2013 AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Jonathan Hayward
>$1.7 billion insured damage
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Courtesy of Kim Sturgess, WaterSMART AB, 2014
June, 1929
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Toronto, Canada
© 2013 AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Winston Neutel
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© 2013 AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Frank Gunn
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© 2013 Reuters/Mark Blinch
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© 2013 Reuters/Mark Blinch
>$850 million insured damage
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Toronto, Ontario
$225 million insured damage
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2013 high water marks
Canada’s costliest and third costliest insured
loss events within two weeks of each other
Ice storm now the second costliest – took 15
years!
Two billion dollar natural catastrophes in
one year – a first!
Second place event (Slave Lake) fell not
one, but two notches to fourth place
5th consecutive year of billion-dollar events
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Canadian cats 2014
Angus tornado (June 17)
>$30 million
Saskatchewan & Manitoba storms (June 28)
Ontario storms/Burlington flood (August 4)
$90 million
Alberta wind & thunderstorms (August 7 & 8)
$450 million
$652 million (first eight months)
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Burlington, Ontario
© 2013 Reuters/Mark Blinch
$90 million insured damage
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Aidrie, Alberta hailstorm
$450 million insured damage
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Billion-dollar years
1998 – due solely to the ice storm
2005 – due greatly to the August 19 GTA rainstorm
2009 – due greatly to back-to-back windstorms in Alberta
2010 – due greatly to large hailstorm in Alberta
2011 – due greatly to Slave Lake wildfire
2012 – due greatly to one large and two smaller hailstorms
in Alberta
2013 – due to the Southern Alberta flood and GTA flood
First time ever for two billion-dollar events
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Avg. difference between loss ratios
(Auto vs. personal property)
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
20.00%
1983-1992 1993-2002 2003-2012
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New normal
“The Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction (ICLR) reports that large
insured losses from extreme weather
appear to be ‘the new normal’ for the
Canadian insurance industry, expecting
that large-loss years will no longer be
rarities.”
Canadian Underwriter (November 6, 2012)
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When the feds say we have a problem…
”The rising cost of natural disasters and
the financial burden on Ottawa is the
country’s biggest public safety risk”…
Public Safety Canada, 2013/14, Report on Plans and Priorities
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Why are losses rising?
More people and property at risk
Aging infrastructure
The climate is changing
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Why are losses rising?
More people and property at risk
Aging infrastructure
The climate is changing
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Global population
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Canadian urban population
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Residential structures
Source: ICLR, based on data from Statistics Canada
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Motor vehicle registration
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Increasing values in exposed areas
Ocean Drive, FL, 1926. Ocean Drive, FL, 2000.
The number of residents in Florida increased by 70% between 1980
and 2001. In the same period, the state’s gross domestic product
soared by 130%.
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Why are losses rising?
More people and property at risk
Aging infrastructure
The climate is changing
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Infrastructure spending
Source: ICLR, based on data from Statistics Canada
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Aging infrastructure
Source: Federation of Canadian Municipalities
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Why are losses rising?
More people and property at risk
Aging infrastructure
The climate is changing
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Global Warming, 1884 – 2011
Difference from 1951 – 1980
Average
- 2° C + 2° C 0° Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio
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TELLING THE WEATHER STORY | 60
0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Years Before Present
Te
mp
era
ture
Va
ria
tio
n (
°C)
NOW 400K YEARS AGO
ICE AGES
WARM PERIODS
Glo
bal
Te
mp
+ 1°
-(5-7°)
0 STUDYING THE HISTORY TELLS US: • Warming since last Ice Age was about 5-7oC over
10,000 years; • Projected global warming over the next 100 years
is 2-4oC; • The rate of warming will be about 50 times faster.
HOW BIG A CHANGE IS 3-5°C OVER 100 YEARS?
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2013 was the 37th
consecutive year with a
global temperature above
the 20th century average
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September 2014 was the
355th consecutive month
with a global temperature
above the 20th century
average
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800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Age (years BP)
300
180
200
220
240
260
280
CO
2 (
pp
mv)
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
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300
180
200
220
240
260
280
800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Age (years BP)
CO
2 (
pp
mv)
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
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400
320
340
360
380
300
180
200
220
240
260
280
2013 CO2 Concentration: 400
800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Age (years BP)
CO
2 (
pp
mv)
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
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2013 CO2 Concentration: 400 400
320
340
360
380
300
180
200
220
240
260
280
800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Age (years BP)
CO
2 (
pp
mv)
420
440
460
480
500
520
540
560
580
600
After 40 more years at the current rate of increase
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
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There are longer intervals in
drought-stricken areas
between downpours, making
droughts EVEN WORSE
More water also evaporates
MORE QUICKLY from the
soil, making DROUGHTS
deeper and longer still
Causing Bigger, Harder Downpours, and
Simultaneously—
1
2
3
4
Evaporation from
the ocean into the
atmosphere increases
even MORE
As the air gets even
warmer, it can hold
even MORE water vapor
Heavy downpours get
even heavier, causing
worse flooding
5
Snowpacks melt earlier in
the year, leading to more
spring flooding, but less
water in the heat of summer
6
There are longer intervals in
drought-stricken areas
between downpours, making
droughts EVEN WORSE
More water also evaporates
MORE QUICKLY from the
soil, making DROUGHTS
deeper and longer still
Causing Longer and Deeper DROUGHTS
© iStockphoto/Terry Morris
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Change in annual global temperature (1880-2010)
An
om
aly
Re
lati
ve
to
19
01
– 2
00
0 M
ea
n (
°C)
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010
Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOAA
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
-0.25
-0.5
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Increase in heavy precipitation days
Source: Alexander, L. V., et al., “Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation,” J. Geophys. Res., 111, D05109,
doi:10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006. © 2006 American Geophysical Union. Reproduced by permission of American Geophysical Union.
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
Worldwide
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Hotter Years Typically Have More Fires 40 Years of Western U.S. Fire and Temperatures
62°
61°
60°
59°
58°
57°
56°
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Average Temperature
Number of Fires
Ave
rag
e S
pri
ng
- S
um
me
r Te
mp
era
ture
(°F
) F
ires
on
U.S
. Fo
res
t Se
rvic
e L
an
d
Data: Climate Central, “The Age of Western Wildfires,” September, 2012
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Colorado Springs, Colorado June 26, 2012
© 2012 AP Photo/Helen H. Richardson, The Denver Post
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© 2012 Reuters/Rick Wilking
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Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado June 27, 2012
© 2012 NBC Universal Archives
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Black Forest, Colorado June 12, 2013
© 2013 Reuters/Rick Wilking
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© 2013 ABC News via AP
Black Forest Fire, Colorado June 11, 2013
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West Fork Complex Fire, Colorado June 20, 2013
© 2013 Reuters/The Pike Hotshots/U.S. Forest Service
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Yarnell Hill Fire, Arizona June 30, 2013
19 firefighters were killed
fighting the Yarnell Hill fire
© 2013 AP Photo/The Arizona Republic, Tom Story
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Kelowna, B.C. September 2003
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Source: Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada.
Between 1975-1995 and 2080-2100, Canadian climate change model
Projected winter temperature change
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“The only plausible explanation for the
rise in weather-related catastrophes is
climate change.”
Munich Re
One of the two largest reinsurance companies in the world September 27, 2010
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What can be done?
Loss prevention
Risk transfer
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Loss prevention
Structural measures
Non-structural measures
Public awareness
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Structural measures
Dams, levees, seawalls and other engineered
structures can be effective mechanisms for
protecting communities
Building codes should reflect climate knowledge
Warning systems reduce injuries and fatalities
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Structural measures - hard
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Structural measures - hard
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Structural measures - hard
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Structural measures - hard
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Structural measures - hard
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Structural measures - hard
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Structural measures - hard
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Structural measures - soft
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Structural measures - soft
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Non-structural measures
Non-structural measures are effective means to
improve the safety of how we live, study and
work
Land use planning has been proven to be a
powerful tool to reduce damage and injuries
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Public awareness
Community actions are the most important and
effective in promoting disaster safety -- think
locally and act locally
Informed families and businesses are best able
to manage nature’s hazards
Don’t be taken by surprise
Don’t wait for it, plan for it
Canadians must establish a culture of
preparedness
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Public awareness
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Public awareness
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Public awareness
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Public awareness
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Role of insurance
Pay disaster losses
Support research in climate extremes
Lobby for better disaster management
Promote better building practices
Provide incentives and disincentives
Through pricing
Through policy wordings/exclusions
Through refusal to bind coverage
But insurance is NOT mitigation, it is simply
passing on the bill to someone else
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ICLR efforts
Three main areas of concentration
Housing
Municipal governments and cities
Small business
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Hurricane Gustav
We found one house in Houma, LA with a roof failure
(city of 100,000 people). The cause of the damage was
missing toenails.
The roof flew off the left house and landed on the roof of
the right house, penetrating the sheathing.
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Building codes protect homes
severe wind damage, Florida, dollars per square foot, 2004 - 2005
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Three Little Pigs project at UWO
Now known as the The Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes
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Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Test models in wind tunnel
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The concept
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November 14, 2005
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Current Design
Should work well for
structural tests
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Problems with connections
are the major issue for
response to wind.
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Roof-to-Wall Connections
Example of a toe-nail roof to wall connection in the house where the
nail has split the wood and offers very little hold down force.
Estimates of the hold down capacity of toe-nail connections on the test house
vary from 30lbf to 160lbf (based on past literature)
Every connection (roof sheathing and roof-to-wall toe-nails) in the house has
been recorded to aid in the interpretation of the experimental data and to aid
computational modeling.
These data will be used for the development of probabilistic failure (risk)
models
A typical toe-nail roof to wall connection in the test house
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After Dynamic Test #3
During House Construction
Crack in wood didn’t grow
Nails moved a lot!
Air gap
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WindEEE Dome
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Tornado wind damage surveys
Post-storm wind damage investigations
Team of UWO researchers, partially funded by ICLR, ready to
go to southern Ontario tornado damage sites at a moment’s
notice
Went to one event in 2007, near Mitchell, Ontario in May
Caused approx. CAD 1 million in damage
One house severely damaged, focused on it
Observe damage and measure wind throw of debris to attempt
to determine wind speed
Use models and the wind tunnel at UWO
One of the most common problems found is improper attention
to detail for connections, such as missed nails.
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Bornham, Ontario, May 2007
from here
to
here
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Elie, Manitoba tornado
June 22, 2007
Canada’s first F5 tornado
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car ‘missing’ house
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same car
MISSING hold-downs
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Vaughan, Ont. tornadoes
August 20, 2009
Two F-2s
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Missing roof-to-wall
connections.
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Roof likely lifted and wall fell
outwards
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Debris impact – internal pressurization – roof
failure
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Debris impact – internal pressurization – roof
failure
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Debris impact – internal pressurization – roof failure ??
This one, we are not sure about - it could have been that the
double doors blew in…
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This air conditioner
unit travelled 70m
Nothing was holding them
down… except their own
weight
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Sheathing without enough fasteners …
not even the shingles came off here
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Edge nails seem to have less capacity due to pull-
through
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Goderich, Ontario tornado
August 21, 2011
F3 tornado
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Angus, Ontario tornado
June 17, 2014
EF2 tornado
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Designed…for safer living
“Better than building code”
First home launched at West Point, P.E.I. in November 2006 Impact-resistant windows rated for high wind pressures;
1” thick steel rods that anchor the floors together, including between the first floor to the foundation;
Steel braces securing the trusses to the framing, and braced gable ends to withstand high winds;
Special shingles designed to meet 200 km/h standards, installed using additional nails and cement;
Heavy roof sheathing designed to stay dry, fastened with ring-shank nails in a tight nailing pattern;
Water-resistant sealing around windows and doors;
Adhesive weather-resistant strips installed over every joint in the roof sheathing to protect against water intrusion; and
Special wind-resistant siding, fascia and soffits.
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Second home launched in Sudbury, Ont. Feb. 19., 2007
Designed…for safer living
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Third home currently under construction in Fort Erie
Designed…for safer living
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Showcase Homes
Retrofit an existing home to make it more resilient to natural hazards which exist in a given area
May 2008, retrofitted a home in Montreal to make it more resilient to earthquake and winter storm: Installed a diesel generator as an alternative power source
Put in surge protection on bigger-ticket electronic items
Fit the meter with a natural gas seismic shut off valve
Anchored cabinets, office equipment, and bedroom furniture to walls
Outfitted the washing machine with armoured water supply hoses
Anchored the hot water heater to the floor
Secured pictures and mirrors to the walls
Applied 3M Scotchshield safety UV film to windows
Installed carbon monoxide and smoke detectors and providing a fire extinguisher
Installed snow melt cables on roof edges and gutters to prevent the formation of ice dams
Provided a disaster preparedness kit.
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Showcase Homes
London - tornado (2003)
Halifax - hurricane (2004)
Vancouver - earthquake (2005)
Ottawa - winter storm (2006)
Edmonton - tornado (2007)
Montreal - ice storm (2008)
Toronto - winter storm/blackout (2009)
North York - basement flooding (Aug. 19, 2009)
Jasper - wildfire (2010)
Hamilton - basement flooding (2011)
Moncton – basement flooding (2012)
Quebec – earthquake and winter storm (2013)
Burlington (2014)
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ICLR/UWO NBC/NPC submissions
2012 NBC/NPC submissions
Clarify sewer backflow
protection requirement
Align wall and roof sheathing
fastening requirements
Bracing to resist lateral wind
loads
Clarify connection of foundation
drainage to sanitary/storm
Clarification of requirements for
anchoring columns and posts