Icgfm Budgeting In Times Of Crisis A Canadian Perspective
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Budgeting in Highly Uncertain Times:The Canadian Budget Officer’s Perspective
ICGFM Conference
May 20, 2009
Kevin Page, Parliamentary Budget Officer
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Presentation Outline
• Background on Canada and the PBO
• PBO Analysis of Canada’s 2009 Budget
• Lessons Learned and Longer‐Term Considerations
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General Background on Canada
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Canada
• Economy: $1.6 Trillion (≈$1.4 USD)
• Population: 33 million
• Geographically‐dispersed country
• Relatively decentralized federation
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Canada’s Federal Government
Westminster‐style Parliamentary democracy:
• Executive branch: establishes priorities, proposes measures and runs programs
• Legislative branch: broad oversight and management of public funds, Parliament’s “power of the purse"
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Typical Canadian Budget Cycle
1. Economic and Fiscal Statemento September/Octobero Sets economic and fiscal stage for public consultations
2. Budget o February/Marcho Presents executive’s fiscal plan to Parliament
3. Appropriations Processo Main Estimates (February) + Supplementary Estimates
(in‐year)o Departmental reporting documents: (RPPs; DPRs)
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General Background on Canada’s Budget Office
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Context for Creating the PBO
• Large, recurrent, unplanned budget surpluses
• High profile cost over‐runs on major capital projects
• Public demand for increased transparency and accountability
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Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO)
Created: March 2008
Mandate: Independent analysis to Parliament on:
• Canadian economy• Federal budget issues:
• Nation's finances• Government estimates• Financial costing
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Some Challenges Facing the PBO
• Limited resources to fulfill a broad mandate
• Information asymmetry between the Government and Parliament
• Providing scrutiny and challenge while being perceived as non‐partisan
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PBO’s Operating Principles
I. IndependenceAdvice must be independent, objective and non‐partisan
II. Open Publishing ModelFully disclose analysis to Parliamentarians and public
III. CollaborationExternal experts peer‐review major reports
IV. Priority‐SettingResearch plan reflects priorities of parliamentarians and committees, focusing on risk and material issues
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Context for Canada’s Stimulus Budget
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Budget Context
• Sept 2008: Major global financial shock amplifies existing weakness in Canadian economy
• Limited scope for further conventional monetary stimulus puts onus on discretionary fiscal policy
• Political situation: Nov 2008 economic statement; Dec 2008 prorogation
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‐2
‐1
0
1
2
3
4
April 2008 November 2008 January 2009
IMF 2009 Real GDP Growth Forecastsper cent
Weakened external environment: Significant downgrading of global economic forecasts
World* U.S.
Source: IMF* Based on purchasing‐power‐parity weights
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6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2002 ‐Jan
2003 ‐Jan
2004 ‐Jan
2005 ‐Jan
2006 ‐Jan
2007 ‐Jan
2008 ‐Jan
2009‐Jan
Impacts: Stock market reversal; commodity price correction (and therefore Canadian dollar depreciation)
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2002 ‐Jan
2003 ‐Jan
2004 ‐Jan
2005 ‐Jan
2006 ‐Jan
2007 ‐Jan
2008 ‐Jan
2009‐Jan
60
70
80
90
100
110
Bank of Canada CommodityPrice Index (left axis)
Source: Haver Analytics
Commodity Prices & CAN-U.S. Exchange Rate
cents U.S.1975 = 100 1982‐92 = 100
CAN‐U.S. exchange rate (right axis)
S&P/TSX Composite Index
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16
0
1
2
3
4
5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Percent
*Note: Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) = Nominal GDP deflated by the final domestic demand price indexSource: Statistics Canada and PBO calculations
Commodity price strength supported Canadians’purchasing power on the way up…
Annual Growth of Real GDP and Real GDI
Real GDPReal GDI*
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17
‐20
‐15
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
2008Q1 2008Q2 2008Q3 2008Q4 2009Q1 2009Q2
Percent
Source: Statistics Canada and PBO calculations and monitoring
… suggesting recent commodity price drop will hit Canadians’ purchasing power particularly hard
PBO monitoringHistory
Quarterly Growth of Real GDP and Real GDI
Real GDIReal GDP
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18
‐250
‐200
‐150
‐100
‐50
0
50
100
150
200
2002‐Q1 2003‐Q1 2004‐Q1 2005‐Q1 2006‐Q1 2007‐Q1 2008‐Q1 2009‐Q1
Quarterly Change in EmploymentThousands
Source: Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey and PBO monitoring
Employment began falling sharply in November 2008
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19
65
75
85
95
105
2002
Q120
03Q1
2004
Q120
05Q1
2006
Q120
07Q1
2008
Q120
09Q1
Increased uncertainty, declining wealth and income prospects have shaken confidence
65
75
85
95
105
2002
Q120
03Q1
2004
Q120
05Q1
2006
Q120
07Q1
2008
Q120
09Q1
Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Consumer Confidence
index, 2002 = 100 index, 2002 = 100
Business Confidence
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‐1
0
1
2
3
Canadian 2009 Real GDP Growth Forecastsper cent
These developments significantly weakened Canada’s economic outlook
Budget 2008Feb 2008
2008 Economic and Fiscal StatementNov 2008
Budget 2009Jan 2009
Source: Department of Finance Canada
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PBO Federal Budget 2009 Analysis
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Budget 2009 – Canada’s Economic Action Plan
• Designed largely as economic stimulus • Worth $39.9 billion over 2009‐2010 (2.5% of GDP)
• Estimated impacts: raise real GDP by 1.9%;create/maintain 189,000 jobs by end of 2010
• Guiding principles: timely, targeted, and temporary
• Plan to return to budget surplus in 2013‐14
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PBO of Budget 2009 Analysis
• Fiscal planning assumptions
• Measuring the size of the stimulus
• Assessing measures relative to principles
• Clarifying the current fiscal targets
• Monitoring budget implementation
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‐35
‐30
‐25
‐20
‐15
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14
Budgetary Balance$ billions
Source: Budget 2009
Budget 2009 status quo
Budget 2009 projected temporary deficits with a return to surplus by the end of the forecast horizon
+0.2
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25
‐35
‐30
‐25
‐20
‐15
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14
Budgetary Balance$ billions
Source: Budget 2009, Office of the PBO
Budget 2009 status quo
Budget 2009 projected temporary deficits with a return to surplus by the end of the forecast horizon
+0.2 PBO January 2009 status quo
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‐35
‐30
‐25
‐20
‐15
‐10
‐5
0
5
10
2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14
Budgetary Balance$ billions
Source: Budget 2009, Office of the PBO
Budget 2009 status quo Budget 2009
Budget 2009 projected temporary deficits with a return to surplus by the end of the forecast horizon
+0.2 PBO January 2009 status quo
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‐10
‐8
‐6‐4
‐2
0
2
4
68
10
12
2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14
Status Quo Revenue Comparison (Budget 2009 minus PBO)$ billions
Source: Budget 2009, Office of the PBO
Despite similar nominal GDP outlooks, Budget 2009 had much higher revenues than PBO in the outer years
Total revenues
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0
10
20
30
40
50
Budget 2009 'Gross' 'Net' Stimulus 'Net' excl. contingent
Estimates of Federal Fiscal Stimulus 2009‐10 to 2010‐11$ billions
Source: Budget 2009, Office of the PBO
Budget 2009 estimate of the size of the federal stimulus may be overstated
39.9 31.8 21.9Spending reductionsand EI rate increase
Spending reductionsand EI rate increase
Contingent on othergovt spending
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Stimulus – Budget 2009 Guiding Principles
Targeted“To Canadian businesses and families most in need to trigger largest increase in Canadian jobs and output”
Timely“Begin within the next 120 days”
Temporary“Should be phased out when economy recovers to avoid long‐term structural deficits”
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
CIT measures(0.3)
EI premiums(0.6)
PIT measures(1.0)
Otherspending (1.4)
Housinginvestment
(1.5)
Infrastructure(1.6)
Measures forlow‐income
(1.7)
Federal Measures (2009 to 2010) by Multiplier Impact$ billions
Source: Budget 2009*Budget 2009 estimated multipliers shown in parentheses
Targeted: Based on Government estimates, federal measures appear targeted to increase output
Increasing Multipliers
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31
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12
Infrastructure Canada Planned and Actual Spending$ billions
Source: Public Accounts of Canada and Infrastructure Canada’s 2009‐10 Report on Plans and Priorities
Timely: Infrastructure is the largest stimulus component, but recent track record may raise concerns
Actual Planned
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0
5
10
15
20
2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14
Fiscal Cost of Budget 2009 Measures$ billions
Source: Budget 2009, Office of the PBO
Temporary: Measures are planned to be largely temporary with $5 billion in ongoing measures beyond 2010‐11
Revenue measures
Spending measures
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‐40
‐30
‐20
‐10
0
10
2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14
Budget Balance Projections$ billions
Source: Budget 2009 and Office of the PBO
However, structural budget deficits could result if: 1) some temporary measures become permanent…
Budget 2009 budgetary balancePBO structural balance estimate
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‐6
‐4
‐2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14
Structural Budget Balance Estimates $ billions
Source: Office of the PBO
…and/or 2) if potential output growth slows thereby restraining revenues
PBO structural balance estimate (1.9% potential growth)
PBO structural balance estimate (2.4% potential growth)
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35
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
2006‐07 2007‐08 2008‐09 2009‐10 2010‐11 2011‐12 2012‐13 2013‐14
Federal Debt‐to‐GDP Ratio and 25% Target by 2011‐12per cent
Budget 2009status quo
Budget 2009
Source: Budget 2009
Budget was unclear on the current status of some previously‐stated fiscal targets
Budget 2008 objective: 25% by 2011‐12
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Managing Stimulus Measures
Issue: Reconciling political pressures for speed with due diligence and oversight
ConsiderationsGovernment has eliminated some controls (e.g.environmental assessment); and
Streamlined internal approval processes.
An objective, risk‐based management approach is required
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Oversight of Budget Stimulus
Government is providing quarterly budget reports
Before this first report, the PBO suggested key elements to assist Parliamentary oversight and track budget implementation
Parliament requires: accurate, timely, and easily understood information on recent economic and fiscal developments and the implementation and effectiveness of budget measures
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PBO’s Oversight Framework
Inputs
Processes
Outputs
Outcomes
Which programs, how much funding allocated?
What are the key legislative requirements, delivery mechanisms and risks?
What results will be achieved through federal efforts?
How will these help Canadians affected by the recession and stimulate the economy?
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Budget Progress Reports
Government’s first report in March 2009 focused on spending authorizations (inputs)
• Limited information on: expected outputs; outcomes; implementation benchmarks;or Canadian economy
Future reports may allow for real‐time assessment of program implementation and results vs. objectives
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Revised Outlook and Prospects for Recovery
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Revised Outlook and Recovery
• As a small open economy and commodity exporter, Canada’s recovery depends crucially on global economic and financial developments
• Global and domestic monetary and fiscal policy actions will help
• Downgraded economic outlook since Budget 2009 exceeds expected positive incremental fiscal stimulus impacts
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96
98
100
102
104
106
2008 ‐Q4
2009 ‐Q1
2009 ‐Q2
2009 ‐Q3
2009 ‐Q4
2010 ‐Q1
2010 ‐Q2
2010 ‐Q3
2010 ‐Q4
Near‐term weakness in real GDP offsets the expected increase from Budget 2009 stimulus
Budget 2009 Stimulus – Real GDP Impactindex, Budget 2009 2008Q4 = 100
Source: Office of the PBO* total stimulus plan (i.e., with leverage)
Budget 2009 baseline real GDP before stimulus
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96
98
100
102
104
106
2008 ‐Q4
2009 ‐Q1
2009 ‐Q2
2009 ‐Q3
2009 ‐Q4
2010 ‐Q1
2010 ‐Q2
2010 ‐Q3
2010 ‐Q4
Near‐term weakness in real GDP offsets the expected increase from Budget 2009 stimulus
Budget 2009 Stimulus – Real GDP Impactindex, Budget 2009 2008Q4 = 100
Source: Office of the PBO* total stimulus plan (i.e., with leverage)
2010Q4:+1.9%
Budget 2009 real GDP with stimulus*
Budget 2009 baseline real GDP before stimulus
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96
98
100
102
104
106
2008 ‐Q4
2009 ‐Q1
2009 ‐Q2
2009 ‐Q3
2009 ‐Q4
2010 ‐Q1
2010 ‐Q2
2010 ‐Q3
2010 ‐Q4
Near‐term weakness in real GDP offsets the expected increase from Budget 2009 stimulus
Budget 2009 Stimulus – Real GDP Impactindex, Budget 2009 2008Q4 = 100
Source: Office of the PBO* total stimulus plan (i.e., with leverage)
2010Q4:+1.9%
2008Q4 actual and PBO 2009Q1 estimate
Budget 2009 real GDP with stimulus*
Budget 2009 baseline real GDP before stimulus
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16,800
16,975
17,150
17,325
17,500
2008 ‐Q4
2009 ‐Q1
2009 ‐Q2
2009 ‐Q3
2009 ‐Q4
2010 ‐Q1
2010 ‐Q2
2010 ‐Q3
2010 ‐Q4
Job losses to‐date more than offset the expected employment impacts from Budget 2009
Budget 2009 Stimulus – Employment Impactthousands
Source: Office of the PBO* total stimulus plan (i.e., with leverage)
2010Q4:+189K
239,500 net job losses in the first quarter of the year
Budget 2009 employment levels with stimulus*
Budget 2009 employment prior to stimulus
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Longer‐Term Considerations and Conclusions
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Post‐recovery issues
Economic
• Will there be longer‐term impacts on Canada’s potential output growth?
Policy Considerations
• What are the fiscal targets and objectives going forward?
• What are the fiscal and monetary policy exit strategies?
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1. Global financial crisis underscores importanceof transparency in financial reporting anddecision‐making
General Lessons and Opportunities from the Crisis
2. Increased scrutiny provides opportunity toimprove budget oversight and reporting toParliament for Budget 2009 and beyond
3. Manage near‐term expectations, with focus toaddress long‐term policy challenges andpreserve policy credibility
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Longer‐Term Policy Challenges
• Population ageing
• Climate change
• Productivity and structural adjustments
• Regional and household income disparities
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2. The PBO’s existence and operating model challenge a well‐established system (similar initial experiences shared by other offices, e.g. CBO)
PBO Lessons Learned
3. Openness, transparency and independence are crucial for the PBO to operate effectively
1. Parliament and other stakeholders have a strong desire for additional economic and fiscal analytical capacity.
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Contact us
Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer50 O’Connor StreetOttawa, Canada K1A 0A9+1 613 992 8026 telpbo‐[email protected]/pbo‐dpb