Ice Navigation

Norvald KjerstadProfessor, Nautical Science

Dep. of Ocean Operations and Civil Engineering

Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU)

NO-6025 Ålesund, Norway

Mobile +47 975 43980

Workshop on

Challenges in Arctic Navigation

16.-18.4.2018, Olos, Lapland

Ice …. A terrible obstructionWe still need to go into icy water to earn our money,

and keep community going

Ports in Finland, Sweden Canada and Russia is closed by ice one third of the year.

This traffic have been performed very safe since regulatory ice regimes were introduced.

Calculated risk? ….Incidents change mindset and regulations

1912: Titanic hit an iceberg and 1514 lives were lost (68%). Resulted in the SOLAS convention (Safety Of Life At Sea) (1914).

1920: After many incidents, Finland introduces regulations and “Ice Fees”. This is the start of modern technical requirements in most ship Classification Societies.

1959: Hans Hedtoft collided with growler or iceberg south of Greenland, 95 lives lost (all). Like Titanic HH was build not to sink. IMO reporting regime introduced.

1989: Maxim Gorkiy sails into drift ice west of Svalbard. Most of the 953 onboard were evacuated to the drift ice. Exceptional good luck prevented a catastrophe. Initiated work with the IMO Polar Code (2017).

Decrease isapprox. 8% pr. decade

Why all this interest no?

- Expectations of easier ice- Expedition tourism is booming- Industry is seeking further north

This generation can be the first humans to see an open Polar Sea,

EVER!

Key for safe operation is competence and understanding the rapid changing condition

Explorer ran into unexpected ice condition and sank in Antarctica 23.11.2007. The ship had highest “Baltic” ice-strengthening.

Typical summer situation

Cruise industry is picking up and penetrate deeper into ice

5. sept. 2014

HanseaticN 85°40.7' E 135°39.6'

2016: First transit of NW-passage with large cruise ship

Even more spectacular concepts under wayDestination: The North Pole

Passenger + crew = 450, 150m, 30,400GT, 34MW

Traffic in North East - The big picture…… Extreme growth in NW-Russia

Summer

Winter

Sabetta

HAZARDS identified to be addressed in the Polar Code• Ice• Topside icing, • Low temperature • Darkness • High latitude • Remoteness (lack of infrastructure) • SAR facilities• Crew experience • Emergency response equipment• Severe weather conditions

Risk = Probability x Consequence

Hanseatic, Hinlopen Svalbard 1997

IMO Polar Code, Mandatory from 2018…. Risk based, and add on principle

A-type: All conditions

B-type: Light ice

C-type: «Open water»

Risk (R) = Probability (P) x Consequence (C)

R R

Identify

Mitigate

Additional risk

World Wide Polar

…. In the end risk in Polar waters should be equal to World wide

MetOcean data is a key

Different resolution in different stage of planning and operation

Sentinel SAR image from Laptev Sea (NSR), January 2018 with track from LNG-tanker bound for Sabetta

Example of high res.SAR-satellite data

POLARIS(Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System)

Approved by IMO, and described in Polar Water Operation Manual (PWOM) for risk assessment and planning. Accepted by the administrations.

Operation subject to special consideration

Elevated operational risk

Normal level of risk

POLARIS terminology(Risk Index)

GEO(INMARSAT)

HEO Molniya-orbit

LEO(Iridium)

Communication systems are essential for safe and efficient operations

…. Still a weak ling

Open Water

Visiting Svalbard is never “Ice Free”

Concluding remarks• Cruise tourism increase• Regional traffic is picking up • No significant trans-polar shipping• Ice is melting but is still very challenging• Polar Code is an important framework

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