Mobile Network Overview

Iain Gillott Matthew Vartabedian(512) 263-5682 (708) 387-0475iain@iGR-Inc.com mattv@iGR-Inc.com

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iGR’s Products and Services

Market Research & Subscription

Services

End-User Quantitative and

Qualitative Studies

Custom Research Services

Content Marketing Products and Media

Support

Wireless and Mobile Landscape

Rural Markets

Small Cell Architectures

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What is, and is not, a Small Cell?

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Sizing the Opportunity for Small Cells Bad news

◦ …is that everyone has a different definition◦ Depends on what you are selling

Good news◦ Size each opportunity based on market segment◦ Residential Femtocell

Published◦ Enterprise Picocell

Published◦ Carrier Metrocell

Published◦ In-building DAS

Final edit

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‘Official’ definition of Small Cells

And repeaters, signal boosters

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Residential Femtocells

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Rating of Voice Reception in Home

32.7%

36.5%

19.8%

7.0%

2.4%

1.5%

ExcellentVery GoodGoodPoorTerribleI don't typically use my cell phone inside my home

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Existence of a Femtocell in the Home 1.7%

46.7%

44.9%

6.8%

YesNoWhat's a femtocell?Don't know

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U.S. Femtocell Total Addressable Market, 2012 - 2017

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10,600,000

10,800,000

11,000,000

11,200,000

11,400,000

11,600,000

11,800,000

12,000,000

12,200,000

CAGR 1.5%

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Enterprise Picocells

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Picocell Market Drivers Only employees of the given enterprise would use the

picocell(s) Picocells would not be opened up (hybrid or open

access) for use by passers-by or visitors Picocells would also not be deployed in large venues

(stadium, hotel, exhibit space, etc.) for use by a given carrier’s subscribers

Number of users would likely be the limiting factor, not floor space

Given the existence and near-ubiquity of WiFi (and wired Ethernet) at U.S. enterprises, iGR assumed that voice coverage would be the primary driver of enterprise picocell deployments

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Location of Voice Improvements

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

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Buildings per Floor Space Category

54.9%

19.1%

15.9%

5.2%

2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%

1,001 to 5,000 5,001 to 10,000 10,001 to 25,00025,001 to 50,000 50,001 to 100,000100,001 to 200,000 200,001 to 500,000 Over 500,000

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U.S. Picocell Total Addressable Market, 2012-2017

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

8,300,000

8,400,000

8,500,000

8,600,000

8,700,000

8,800,000

8,900,000

~9 million

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Carrier Metrocells

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When is bandwidth used?

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

2011 2016

Daily Percent Mobile Data Usage per Hour

6am

7am

8am

9am10

am11

amNoo

n1p

m2p

m3p

m4p

m5p

m6p

m7p

m8p

m9p

m10

pm11

pm

Mid

nigh

t0.000

0.050

0.100

0.150

0.200

0.250

2011 2016

U.S. Mobile Bandwidth used by Time of Day (GB/Hour/POP)

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Differences in Peak Demand in 20 KM2

Business or Downtown Area, 2011-2016

8am 9am 10am 11am Noon 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm

0

50

100

150

200

250

2011 2012

2016

16x

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U.S. Metrocell TAM, 3G & 4G Combined, 2012 - 2017

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

3G metrocell, total 4G metrocell, total

240% CAGR

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Putting it all together

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U.S. Small Cell Total Addressable Market, 2012-2017

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000

22,000,000

3G metrocell, total 4G metrocell, total

Residential Femtocell Enterprise/Venue Picocell

21.2 million

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Small cells will be deployed◦ Network capacity/coverage demands require hetnet and

small cells◦ No options

Anything that is not nailed to a tower will be classed as ‘small’

3 fundamental challenges to address◦ Spectrum◦ Location – right of way, etc◦ Backhaul

These issues will throttle deployments◦ If you have all three, low hanging fruit for early

deployment

Takeaways

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Questions?