I Overview of the System and the Basic Statistics ... - mhlw

4

I Overview of the System and the Basic Statistics

[1] General Welfare and Labour Population Structure

FemalesMales

Age 71: the number of births decreased in 1938-39 due to the mobilization of soldiers for the Japan-China War

Age 61-63: the first baby boom from 1947 to 1949

Age 44: born in 1966 (year of the Fire Horse, renowned for disasters, etc.)

Age

Population (10,000 persons)00 2525 5050 7575 100100 125125 150150

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105 or over

0

Age 64, 65: the number of births decreased around the end of war

Age 36-39: the second baby boom from 1971 to 1974

Sources: 2025 - “Population Projection for Japan (estimated in January 2012), medium-varient assumption”, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

2010 - “2010 Population Census”, Statistics Bureau, MIC(Note) The solid line represents the figures for 2010 and the broken line represents the figures for 2025. The population aged

105 or older cannot be calculated by age group and has collectively been put into the age group of “105 or older”.

The Population Pyramid in JapanOverview

Live births

1,037,1011 in every 30 sec.

1,256,2541 in every 25 sec.

2,2981 in every 3 hours

49 min. 21 sec.

24,8041 in every 21 min.

15 sec.

668,7881 in every 47 sec.

235,3941 in every 2 min.

14 sec.

Deaths (Regrouped) Infant deaths

Foetal deaths Marriages Divorces

Vital Statistics in Japan (2012 approximates)

Source: “Vital Statistics”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister's Secretariat, MHLW

5

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

205520502040203020202010

2005200019901980197019601950

Population (10 thousand persons)

Actual Figures (Population Census)

Estimates of FY2012 (Population Projection for Japan)

Population 14 or younger

Population aged 15-64

Population 65 or older

Percentage of productive-age population (aged 15-64)

Elderly rate (percentage of population 65 or older)

Total fertility rate

Total fertility rate

1.35

Elderly rate39.4%

Percentage of productive-age

population51.2%

65.8(2005)

20.1(2005)

Population peak (2004) 12,779

1.26(2005)

2,567

3,685

6,773

1,203 861

4,706

3,626

9,193

11,661

8,409

12,728

1,752

Sources: Up to 2010 - “Population Census”, Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications From 2015 on - “Population Projection for Japan (estimated in January 2012)”, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

Population Trends of Japan

6

2010

2030

20552060

2010

2030

2055

2060

2010

2030

2055

2060

2010

2030

2055

2060

127.18 million!

115.22 million!

89.93 million

16.48 million13.0%

!11.15 million

9.7%!

7.52 million8.4%

81.28 million63.9%

!67.40 million

58.5%!

45.95 million51.1%

29.41 million23.1%

!36.67 million

31.8%!

36.46 million40.5%

128.06 million!

114.17 million!

85.93 million79.97 million

16.84 million13.1%

!9.99 million

8.7%!

6.38 million7.4%

5.62 million7.0%

81.73 million63.8%

!67.33 million

59.0%!

43.30 million50.4%

39.71 million49.7%

29.48 million23.0%

!36.85 million

32.3%!

36.26 million42.2%

34.64 million43.3%

128.06 million!

119.24 million!


16.84 million13.1%

!14.32 million

12.0%!

11.40 million11.5%

10.87 million11.5%

81.73 million63.8%

!68.07 million

57.1%!

51.14 million51.8%

49.09 million51.9%

29.48 million23.0%

!36.85 million

30.9%!

36.26 million36.7%

34.64 million36.6%

128.06 million!

116.62 million!


16.84 million13.1%

!12.04 million

10.3%!

8.61 million9.4%

7.91 million9.1%

81.73 million63.8%

!67.73 million

58.1%!

47.06 million51.2%

44.18 million50.9%

29.48 million23.0%

!36.85 million

31.6%!

36.26 million39.4%

34.64 million39.9%

Assumption for fertility rate[Long-term total fertility rate]

Assumptions for mortality rate[Long-term life expectancy]

Male=83.67 yearsFemale=90.34 years

Assumptions of medium-variant mortality[Male=84.19 years] [Female=90.93 years]

Projection in December 2006medium-variant assumptions

[1.26]

Low-variant assumptions

[1.12]

High-variant assumptions

[1.60]

Medium-variantassumptions

[1.35]

<Summary of Results and Assumptions>

1.Projection in January 2012 With the release of the first basic survey results of 2010 Population Census as well as that of the confirmed number of 2010 Vital

Statistics, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research initiated a new national population projection. The outline of the projection results and methods are as follows.

2. Result of Projection (Medium Variant Assumptions for Mortality)

Tota

l pop

ulat

ion

Chi

ld P

opul

atio

n (P

opul

atio

n ag

ed 1

0-14

)Pr

oduc

tive-

age

Popu

latio

n (P

opul

atio

n ag

ed 1

5-64

)El

derly

Pop

ulat

ion

(Pop

ulat

ion

aged

65

or o

lder

)Population Projection for Japan (Estimated in January 2012) Detailed Data 1

7

(1) Average age of first marriage

(2) Proportion of never-married

(3) Number of live births by a married-couple

(4) Effects of divorce, bereavement, and remarriage









20552060Interim2010

Actual figure

Actual current figure of

generation born in 1960

!increase!rise!

decrease!

decline!

increase!rise!

decrease!

decline!

increase!rise!

decrease!

decline

25.7

9.4%

2.07

0.962

Same as above

Same as above

28.2

20.1%

1.74

0.938

27.9

14.7%

1.91

0.937

28.5

26.2%

1.57

0.938

1.39

1.39

1.39

1.35

1.60

1.12

1.26

1.55

1.06

Assumption for generations born in 1995

(reference cohort)

Total fertility ratePresupposition Projection in Dec. 2006

3. The Method Used for Projecting Population The cohort component method is used for Population Projections with assumptions made for components of population change,

namely population process components, birth, death and international migration. Assumptions are made based on actual statistics of each component using the demographic projection method.

(1) Summary of Assumptions for Future Fertility Assumptions were made for both marriage and birth index of female cohorts born in 1995 (reference cohorts) and that the

transition would gradually take place from the actual figures of elderly cohorts or statistically assumed figures through the assumptions of the reference cohorts to those of cohorts born in 2010, and then remain flat thereafter.

(2) Summary of Assumptions for Mortality “Medium-variant of death” assumption (2060: male 84.19 years, female 90.93 years) was made according to the actual mortality

figures from 1970 to 2010 and “high-variant death” assumption (2060: male 83.22 years, female 89.96 years) and “low-variant death” assumption (2060: male 85.14 years, female 91.90 years) based on the confidence interval of mortality index parameters.

Sex ratio for live birth: Sex ratio for live birth from 2006 to 2010 was set to a constant value (105.5).

(3) Outline of Assumptions on International Migration The average rate of annual net migration of Japanese by age and sex during the period between 2004 and 2009 was set to a

constant value. With foreign nationals, the assumptions were made for the net migration by reflecting the trend since 1970. Departure excess was observed with both males and females in 2011, the year affected by the Great East Japan Earthquake, but entry exceeded departure in 2012. The average rate of annual net migration of foreign nationals in 2030 is assumed to be 34,000 males and 38,000 females and to remain unchanged thereafter.

Med

ium

-var

iant

as

sum

ptio

nH

igh-

varia

nt

assu

mpt

ion

Low

-var

iant

as

sum

ptio

nTy

pe o

f as

sum

ptio

n

MaleFemale

Actual figure2010

!!

79.64 years86.39 years

Medium-variant death assumption2060


Projection in December 20062055


Fertility assumption index

Maximum20131.39

Minimum20241.33

Maximum20201.61

Minimum20101.39

Maximum20101.39

Minimum20231.09

8

1899 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1943 1947 1950 1955 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

1,386,9811,452,7701,712,857

1,799,3262,025,5642,086,0912,085,1012,190,704

2,115,8672,253,5352,678,7922,337,5071,730,692

1,606,0411,589,3721,618,6161,659,5211,716,761

1,823,6971,360,9741,935,6471,871,8391,889,815

1,934,2392,000,9732,038,6822,091,9832,029,989

1,901,4401,832,6171,755,1001,708,6431,642,580

………

……………

……

4.543.652.37

2.001.961.982.002.05

2.141.582.232.132.13

2.132.162.142.142.05

1.911.851.801.791.77

Year Number of live birth Totalfertility rate

Source: “Vital Statistics”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister's Secretariat, MHLW (Note) The figures indicated by “*” are approximates.

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2010 2011*2012

1,576,8891,529,4551,515,3921,508,6871,489,780

1,431,5771,382,9461,346,6581,314,0061,246,802

1,221,5851,223,2451,208,9891,188,2821,238,328

1,187,0641,206,5551,191,6651,203,1471,177,669

1,190,5471,170,6621,153,8551,123,6101,110,721

1,062,5301,092,6741,089,8181,091,1561,070,035

1,071,3041,050,6981,037,101

1.751.741.771.801.81

1.761.721.691.661.57

1.541.531.501.461.50

1.421.431.391.381.34

1.361.331.321.291.29

1.261.321.341.371.37

1.391.391.41

Year Number of live birth Totalfertility rate

Changes in Number of Live Birth and Total Fertility RateDetailed Data 2

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Present year

3.65

2.00

2.13

1.75

1.54

1.36

1.41 (2012)

3.02

3.64

2.46

1.84

2.08

2.06

1.89 (2011)

U E

E

E

2.19

2.67

2.38

1.90

1.85

1.64

1.96 (2011)

2.92

2.72

2.47

1.99

1.78

1.88

2.01 (2011)

2.05 (1951)2.34

2.01

1.46

1.45

1.38

1.36 (2011)

2.52

2.31

2.43

1.61

1.33

1.26

1.40 (2011)

2.32

2.17

1.94

1.68

2.13

1.57

1.90 (2011)

Japan U.S.A. U.K.France Germany Italy Sweden

Sources: Japan - “Vital Statistics”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister's Secretariat, MHLW Other than Japan - “Demographic Yearbook”, UN Except for U - “National Vital Statistics Reports”, NCHS E - “Recent demographic developments in Europe”, Council of Europe

(Note) 1. The figures for Germany up to 1990 are those of former West Germany. The figures for the U.K. up to 1985 are for those of England and Wales combined. 2. The figures indicated by “*” are approximates.

*

Changes in Total Fertility Rates in Developed CountriesDetailed Data 3

9

Life Expectancy

1947

1950-1952

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Age 0

50.06

59.57

63.60

65.32

67.74

69.31

71.73

73.35

74.78

75.92

76.38

77.19

77.16

77.10

77.72

78.07

78.32

78.36

78.64

78.56

79.00

79.19

79.29

79.59

79.55

79.44

79.94

Age 20

40.89

46.43

48.47

49.08

50.18

51.26

53.27

54.56

55.74

56.77

57.16

57.86

57.85

57.74

58.33

58.64

58.87

58.89

59.15

59.08

59.49

59.66

59.75

60.04

59.99

59.93

60.36

Age 40

26.88

29.65

30.85

31.02

31.73

32.68

34.41

35.52

36.63

37.58

37.96

38.62

38.66

38.56

39.13

39.43

39.64

39.67

39.93

39.86

40.25

40.40

40.49

40.78

40.73

40.69

41.05

Age 65

10.16

11.35

11.82

11.62

11.88

12.50

13.72

14.56

15.52

16.22

16.48

17.02

17.13

17.02

17.54

17.78

17.96

18.02

18.21

18.13

18.45

18.56

18.60

18.88

18.74

18.69

18.89

Age 90

2.56

2.70

2.87

2.69

2.56

2.75

3.05

3.17

3.28

3.51

3.58

3.81

3.86

3.76

4.10

4.19

4.29

4.26

4.36

4.15

4.32

4.40

4.36

4.48

4.19

4.14

4.16

Age 0

53.96

62.97

67.75

70.19

72.92

74.66

76.89

78.76

80.48

81.90

82.85

83.82

84.01

83.99

84.60

84.93

85.23

85.33

85.59

85.52

85.81

85.99

86.05

86.44

86.30

85.90

86.41

Age 20

44.87

49.58

52.25

53.39

54.85

56.11

58.04

59.66

61.20

62.54

63.46

64.36

64.56

64.50

65.08

65.39

65.69

65.79

66.01

65.93

66.22

66.39

66.45

66.81

66.67

66.35

66.78

Age 40

30.39

32.77

34.34

34.90

35.91

37.01

38.76

40.23

41.72

43.00

43.91

44.79

45.01

44.94

45.52

45.82

46.12

46.22

46.44

46.38

46.66

46.82

46.89

47.25

47.08

46.84

47.17

Male FemaleAge 65

12.22

13.36

14.13

14.10

14.56

15.34

16.56

17.68

18.94

20.03

20.94

21.75

21.96

21.89

22.42

22.68

22.96

23.04

23.28

23.19

23.44

23.59

23.64

23.97

23.80

23.66

23.82

Age 90

2.45

2.72

3.12

2.99

2.96

3.26

3.39

3.55

3.82

4.18

4.64

5.03

5.15

5.05

5.29

5.41

5.56

5.57

5.69

5.53

5.66

5.72

5.71

5.86

5.53

5.46

5.47

Year

Source: “Complete Life Tables” (up to 1995 and 2000, 2005, 2010) and “Abridged Life Tables” (other years), Statistics and Information Department, Minister's Secretariat, MHLW

(Note) The figures up to 1970 exclude those for Okinawa Prefecture. Life expectancy at age 0 is the “life expectancy at birth”.

(Unit: years)Trends in Life ExpectancyOverview

North AmericaAsia

Europe

Oceania

Region

Japan U.S.A. Israel Korea France Iceland Italy Norway Sweden Switzerland U.K. Australia

Country

20122011201120112012201220112012201220112009-20112009-2011

Reference periodfor the data

86.4181.183.684.584.883.984.583.4183.5484.782.6484.2

79.9476.380.077.678.480.879.479.4279.8780.378.6679.7

Male Female

(Unit: years)

(Note) Data are provided by the relevant governments.

International Comparison of Life Expectancy at Birth

10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

10 122000908070601950 (Year)

Malignant neoplasms

Heart diseases (excluding hypertensive diseases)

Cerebrovascular diseasesPneumonia

Accidents

SuicideDiseases of liverTuberculosis

Source: “Vital Statistics”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister's Secretariat, MHLW (Note) 1. Cases of death may not match completely due to the revision of categories of cases of death. 2. The figures for 2012 are approximates.

Trends in Death Rates for Leading Causes of Death (per 100,000 population)

Dea

th ra

te (p

er 1

00,0

00 p

opul

atio

n)

1899191019201930194019501960197019751980198519901995199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

* 2012

44.767.172.670.672.177.4

100.4116.3122.6139.1156.1177.2211.6220.4226.7231.6235.2238.8241.7245.4253.9258.3261.0266.9272.3273.5279.7283.2286.4

48.665.063.563.863.364.273.286.789.2

106.2117.3134.8112.0112.2114.3120.4116.8117.8121.0126.5126.5137.2137.2139.2144.4143.7149.8154.5157.7

99.8142.1313.9156.8154.4

65.140.227.127.428.437.555.664.163.163.874.969.267.869.475.375.785.085.087.491.689.094.198.998.3

170.5131.9157.6162.8177.7127.1160.7175.8156.7139.5112.2

99.4117.9111.0110.0110.8105.5104.7103.4104.7102.3105.3101.7100.8100.9

97.297.798.296.5

50.144.746.840.839.539.541.742.530.325.124.626.236.531.131.132.031.431.430.730.730.331.630.330.130.330.032.247.132.4

13.719.119.021.613.719.621.615.318.017.719.416.417.218.825.425.024.123.323.825.524.024.223.724.424.024.423.422.921.0

…17.220.216.212.310.414.316.616.316.316.516.113.713.312.913.212.812.612.312.512.613.012.912.812.912.712.813.012.7

155.7230.2223.7185.6212.9146.4

34.215.4

9.55.53.93.02.62.22.22.32.12.01.81.91.81.81.81.71.81.71.71.71.7

Year Malignantneoplasms

CerebrovasculardiseasesPneumonia Accidents Suicide Diseases

of liver TuberculosisHeart diseases

(excluding hyper-tensive diseases)

Source: “Vital Statistics”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister's Secretariat, MHLW (Note) The figures indicated by “*” are approximates.

11

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Projected figures

Actual figures

20401.66 million persons

(1,000 persons)

Source: Up to 2012 - “Vital Statistics”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister's Secretariat, MHLWFrom 2013 on - “Population Projection for Japan (December 2006)” (live birth: medium-variant, deaths: medium-variant),

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (Note) The figures for 2012 are approximates.

Trends in death

6058534843383328231813082003989389858075706560551951

12

Household Structure

48,170

17,180

5.00

2.57

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

201295908070601953

(1,000 households) (Persons)

Average number of household membersNumber of households

Source: Up to 1985 - “Basic Survey on Health and Welfare Administration”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister’s Secretariat, MHWFrom 1986 on - “Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions 2009”,Statistics and Information Department, Minister’s Secretariat, MHLW

(Note) 1. The figures for 1995 exclude Hyogo Prefecture. 2. The figures for 2011 exclude Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefectures.3. The figures for 2012 exclude Fukushima Prefecture.

Changes in Number of Households and Average Number of Household MembersOverview

Aver

age

num

ber o

f hou

seho

ld m

embe

rs

Num

ber o

f hou

seho

lds

(Year)

13

Year Total(A)

Source: Up to 1985 - “Basic Survey on Health and Welfare Administration”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister’s Secretariat, MHWFrom 1986 on - “Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister’s Secretariat, MHLW

(Note) 1. (1) “Singles person households” indicates a household of one person. (2) “Household of a couple only” indicates a household consisting only of a householder and his/her spouse. (3) “Household of a couple and unmarried children only” indicates a household consisting only of a couple and their unmarried children. (4) “Household of a single parent and unmarried children only” indicates a household consisting only of either father or mother and

his/her unmarried children. (5) “Three generations family households” indicates a household consisting of lineal three or more generations centered by the householder. (6) “Other households” indicates households other than those mentioned in (1)-(5) above.

2. “Elderly household” indicates a household consisting of persons aged 65 or older possibly with unmarried persons younger than 18. 3. The figures for 1995 exclude Hyogo Prefecture.4. The figures for 2011 exclude Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefectures.5. The figures for 2012 exclude Fukushima Prefecture.

Single person

households

Three generations

familyhouseholds

Other households Elderly households

(B)TotalHousehold of a couple only

Household of a couple and unmarried

children only

Household of a single parent and unmarried

children only

Nuclear family households

Estimated number (1,000 households) Estimated number (1,000 households)

Percentage distribution (%) (B) / (A) x 100

197519801985199019931994 19951996 1997 199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

1975198019851990199319941995 19961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

32,87735,33837,22640,27341,82642,06940,77043,80744,66944,49644,92345,54545,66446,00545,80046,32347,04347,53148,02347,95748,01348,63846,68448,170

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

5,9916,4026,8508,4469,3209,2019,213

10,28711,15610,62710,58510,98811,01710,80010,67310,81711,58012,04311,98311,92811,95512,38611,78712,160

18.218.118.421.022.321.922.623.525.023.923.624.124.123.523.323.424.625.325.024.924.925.525.225.2

5,5485,7145,6725,4285,3425,3615,0825,1004,9995,1254,7544,8234,8444,6034,7694,5124,5754,3264,0454,2294,0153,8353,4363,648

16.916.215.213.512.812.712.511.611.211.510.610.610.610.010.4

9.79.79.18.48.88.47.97.47.6

1,0891,6842,1923,1133,9134,2524,3904,8665,1595,6145,7916,2616,6547,1827,2507,8748,3498,4629,0099,2529,623

10,2079,581

10,241

3.3 4.8 5.9 7.7 9.4

10.1 10.8 11.1 11.5 12.612.913.714.615.615.817.017.717.818.819.320.021.020.521.3

19,30421,31822,74424,15424,83625,10323,99725,85525,91126,09626,96326,93826,89427,68227,35228,06127,87228,02528,65828,66428,80929,09728,28128,993

58.760.361.160.059.459.758.959.058.058.660.059.158.960.259.760.659.259.059.759.860.059.860.660.2

3,8774,6195,4236,6957,3937,7847,4888,2588,6618,7819,1649,4229,4039,8879,781

10,16110,29510,19810,63610,73010,68810,99410,57510,977

11.813.114.616.617.718.518.418.919.419.720.420.720.621.521.421.921.921.522.122.422.322.622.722.8

14,04315,22015,60415,39815,29115,19414,39815,15514,90314,95115,44314,92414,87214,95414,90015,12514,60914,82615,01514,73214,89014,92214,44314,668

42.743.141.938.236.636.135.334.633.433.634.432.832.632.532.532.731.131.231.330.731.030.730.930.5

1,3851,4801,7182,0602,1522,1252,1122,4422,3472,3642,3562,5922,6182,8412,6702,7742,9683,0023,0063,2023,2303,1803,2633,348

4.24.24.65.15.15.15.25.65.35.35.25.75.76.25.86.06.36.36.36.76.76.57.06.9

2,0341,9041,9592,2452,3282,4042,4782,5652,6032,6482,6212,7962,9092,9193,0062,9343,0163,1373,3373,1363,2343,3203,1803,370

6.25.45.35.65.65.76.15.95.86.05.86.16.46.36.66.36.46.66.96.56.76.86.87.0

Changes in Number of Households by Household StructureDetailed Data

14

Income

Average Income per Household and per Household Member, by Age Group of HouseholderDetailed Data 1

Average income per household (¥10,000)

Average income per household member (¥10,000)

Total

548.2

208.3

Aged 29and

younger

314.6

171.6

Aged0-39

547.8

180.9

40-49

669.0

204.4

50-59

764.3

254.8

60-69

541.0

213.9

Aged 70 and over

403.8

188.0

(Regrouped)Aged 65 and over

427.2

190.6

Source: “Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions 2012”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister’s Secretariat, MHLW (Note) 1. “Total” includes age unknown.

2. The figures exclude Fukushima Prefecture.

Average Income Per Household and its Percentage Distribution, by Type of Income

All Households

Aged households

Households with children

All Households

Aged households

Households with children

Total Income

548.2

303.6

697.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Earned Income

409.5

59.2

626.2

74.7

19.5

89.8

Public Pensionand

Onkyu Pension

100.7

209.8

27.1

18.4

69.1

3.9

Average Income per Household (Unit: ¥10,000)

Percentage Distribution of the Average Income per Household (Unit: %)

Property Income

16.3

17.6

11.2

3.0

5.8

1.6

Social Security Benefits otherthan Pension

8.6

2.3

25.8

1.6

0.8

3.7

Remittance,Corporate Pension,Personal Pension,and Other Income

13.2

14.6

6.8

2.4

4.8

1.0

Source: “Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions 2012”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister’s Secretariat, MHLW(Note) The figures exclude Fukushima Prefecture.

Detailed Data 2

15

Basic Data on Labour Economy

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

(10,000 persons)

Source: 1990, 2000, and 2010 - “Labour Force Survey”, Statistics Bureau, MIC2020 and 2030 - “2012 Projection of Supply and Demand of Labour Force”, JILPT

(Note) 1. The figures in parentheses indicate percentage distribution.2. The sum of the estimates for the age groups may not equal the total due to rounding. 3. The estimates are based on “Labour Force Survey” in 2010.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1,475(23.1)

1,588(23.5) 1,176

(17.7)1,065(16.4)

1,014(16.2)

4,177(65.4)

4,260(63.0)

4,266(64.3) 4,168

(64.1) 3,854(61.6)

372(5.8)

426(6.3)

604(9.1) 495

(7.6) 600(9.6)

360(5.6)

494(7.3) 585

(8.8) 770(11.8) 787

(12.6)

65 or older

Age 60-64

Age 30-59

Age 15-29

6,384

6,7666,632

6,4986,255

Changes in Labour Force PopulationDetailed Data 1

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Labour Force Participation Rate of females in 2002



Labour Force Participation Rate of males in 2012



(%)

Source: “Labour Force Survey”, Statistics Bureau, MIC

Changes in Labour Force Participation Rates by Gender and Age GroupDetailed Data 2

65or older

Age60-64

Age55-59

Age50-54

Age45-49

Age40-44

Age35-39

Age30-34

Age25-29

Age20-24

Age15-19

16

1975 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Unemployment rate of 65 or older (scale on left)

Unemployment rate of age 35-44 (scale on left)



Number of unemployed persons (scale on right)

Unemployment rate of all age groups (scale on left)



(Year)

(%) (10,000 persons)

Changes in Number of Unemployed Persons and Unemployment Rate by Age GroupDetailed Data 3

Source: “Labour Force Survey”, Statistics Bureau, MIC (Note) The benchmark population used to calculate the results of the “Labour Force Survey” was changed from that of the 2005

Population Census (prior reference) to that of the 2010 Population Census (new reference). The figures for 2011 were retroactively supplemented by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

08 09 10 11 1207060504030201200099989796959493929190898887868584838281807978771976

Source: “Report on Employment Service”, Employment Security Bureau, MHLW (Note) Excluding new school graduates and including part-timers.

(Year)

(times)(10,000 persons)

Monthly active job openings(scale on left)

Monthly active applications(scale on left)

Active job openings-to-applicants ratio(scale on right)

Detailed Data 4 Changes in Job Openings, Applications, and Job Openings-to-applicants Ratio

17

-4.0

-5.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

09 10 11 12080706050403020120009998979695949392919089888786858483821981

(%)

Source: “Monthly Labour Survey”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister’s Secretariat, MHLW (Note) Establishments with 30 employees or more.

(Year)

Changes in total cash earnings

Changes in scheduled cash earnings

Changes in Total Cash Earnings and Scheduled Cash EarningsDetailed Data 5

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

09 10 11 1208070605040302012000999897969594939291908988878685848382818079787776757473721971

20382024

1980

1947 1947 1954 1954

1953 1955

1943 1940 1940

1939 1936

1933

1932 19381912

18881859

18381814

1778 1770

1775 17641748

1734 1714 1714

17101706

16821686

169016851702

16431650 16541668

19091903

1913

19121896

1868

1848

1854 1843 1853 18421813

1850

1834 18341841

20952105

21072112

21042120

2100

2076 2044

2008

1958

22132203

2160

20882077

2095

2097

21052116

2104

2100

1777

1794

1794

1798

156 160152149

147139133140134134148148138133131

144170

185188188182172179171165156160161161151144141130141

180179175

134145

144 144

1649

145

(hour)(hour)

Source: “Monthly Labour Survey”, Statistics and Information Department, Minister’s Secretariat, MHLW (Note) 1. The figures were calculated by multiplying the monthly average by 12 and rounding to the whole number.

2. The figures for annual non-scheduled hours worked were calculated by subtracting annual scheduled hours worked from total annual hours worked.

3. The figures before FY1983 were calculated by adding up the monthly figures.

(FY)

Total annual hours worked (scale on the left)

Annual scheduled hours worked (scale on the left)

Annual non-scheduled hours worked (scale on the right)

Changes in Annual Hours Worked (establishments with 30 employees or more)Detailed Data 6

18

Social Security-Related Expenditure (National Budget)

Category 1980 85 90 95 2000 05 Category 2009 10 11 12 13

82,124 100.0 95,740 100.0 116,154 100.0 139,244 100.0 167,666 100.0 203,808 100.0 248,344 100.0 272,686 100.0 287,079 100.0 263,901 100.0 291,224 100.09,559 11.6 10,816 11.3 11,087 9.5 10,532 7.6 12,306 7.3 19,230 9.4 196,004 78.9 203,363 74.6 210,366 73.3 190,845 72.3 218,475 75.0

13,698 16.7 20,042 20.9 24,056 20.7 34,728 24.9 36,580 21.8 16,443 8.1 20,969 8.4 22,388 8.2 26,065 9.1 28,319 10.7 28,614 9.851,095 62.2 56,587 59.1 71,953 61.9 84,700 60.8 109,551 65.3 158,638 77.8 25,091 10.1 39,305 14.4 44,194 15.4 38,746 14.7 38,610 13.33,981 4.8 4,621 4.8 5,587 4.8 6,348 4.6 5,434 3.2 4,832 2.4 4,346 1.8 4,262 1.6 3,905 1.4 3,788 1.4 3,539 1.23,791 4.6 3,674 3.8 3,471 3.0 2,936 2.1 3,795 2.3 4,664 2.3 1,934 0.8 3,367 1.2 2,549 0.9 2,204 0.8 1,986 0.7

86,416 7.5 99,920 2.6 120,521 6.4 144,766 2.9 174,251 3.9 208,178 3.1 251,568 13.7 275,561 9.5 289,638 5.1 266,873 7.9(*)

294,321 10.3

307,332 10.3 325,854 0.0 353,731 3.8 421,417 3.1 480,914 2.6 472,829 0.7 517,310 9.4 534,542 3.3 540,780 1.2 512,450 5.2 527,312 2.9

Social security-related Public assistance Social welfare Social insurance Public health services Unemployment rmeasuresMHLW budget

General expenditures

(Unit: ¥100 million, %)

Social security-relatedPension/health care/long-term carePublic assistance Social welfare Public health services Employment and industrial accident MHLW budget

General expenditures

Source: Finance Division, Minister's Secretariat, MHLW (Note) 1. The sums in the breakdown may not equal the total due to rounding.

2. The figures in parentheses indicate the percentage distribution, except for figures for the MHLW budget and general expenditures that indicate the rate of increase from the previous year. ∆ indicates a decrease.

3. The figures for MHLW budget up to FY2001 were calculated as the sum of the budget of the former Ministry of Health and Welfare and that of the Ministry of Labour.

4. Categories of social security-related expenses were reviewed in FY2009 budget.5. The FY2012 pension difference portion (i.e. the difference between the state subsidy rate for basic pension of 1/2 and

36.5% (*)) was originally intended to be financed by government bonds for pension funds but was then changed to stop-gap public bonds (special bonds for covering public pension funding). It was increased in the FY2012 supplementary budget.

Changes in Social Security-Related Expenditure in National BudgetOverview

FY1980 85 90 95 2000 05955,926

1,369,77524,282

122,196482,936149,021

3,9502,181

38,84463,580

476,119--

--

6,1265,060,215

79,771---

5,1882,123,107

776--

1,157,085-

1,689,611-

396,96866,30310,03682,317

-50,68371,370

5,527-----

83,499-

3,82223,411

377,1066,933

102,297267,876481,585

8,641,57542,588,843

1,081,5372,004,211

33,90882,298

484,079265,189

4,8001,565

51,73290,250

984,113--

--

6,2755,569,386

64,750---

5,4312,018,870

1,020--

681,774913,528

1,868,721-

461,20799,8858,670

100,995-

33,138118,358

3,755-----

63,796-

4,44028,170

367,1396,063

67,954293,122508,506

9,991,98752,499,643

1,108,7482,405,589

78,263112,702439,994219,851

3,6001,285

52,47086,883

1,402,738--

--

7,8027,090,824

28,485---

9,7392,549,031

1,245--

934,6262,144,1721,422,989

-557,679122,43218,891

121,535-

26,298173,979

7,650-----

48,717-

5,30332,874

345,8676,158

45,384294,325534,428

12,052,13566,236,791

1,053,1803,472,812

204,096166,044589,129231,040

3,4001,552

79,135102,173

2,085,439--

--

10,8048,312,699

14,391---

23,4792,819,398

1,616-

1,4201,103,8442,829,5441,518,306

-634,187109,620

34,922145,602

3316,135

233,78014,825

-----

31,771-

7,79939,702

293,4346,798

31,627255,009710,246

14,476,55870,987,120

1,230,5583,657,991

209,719155,674763,606262,889

5,4901,617

108,360110,949

2,028,696--

--

10,99210,863,311

128,453--

1,010,48226,785

3,354,6751,173

-3,319

1,070,7553,720,8861,546,105

-542,101

81,41446,372

156,0351,9938,411

130,7859,591

-----

57,659-

8,36941,470

378,6616,985

35,397336,279752,480

17,425,10084,987,053

-

-

--

-

-

1,922,9721,644,326

165,895115,425724,410325,244

5,1102,082

117,693123,963

3,8874,7652,701

10141,92311,127

15,708,833317,47511,442

4,286,754

13,3393,739,112

1,802989,220

4,539,4501,799,637

10,101481,90978,99919,986

152,417

6,864

46,922673

51,3533,658

92562,8967,7988,624

40,794465,959

5,37334,447

426,139593,827

20,817,82782,182,918

Detailed Data

Expenditure for public assistance Expenditure for social welfare

Miscellaneous social welfare expenses Development of social welfare facilities Protection for children Miscellaneous expenses for child rearing allowance Welfare for fatherless families Rehabilitation protective care for women Protection for persons disabilities Miscellaneous expenses for benefits, including special child rearing allowance Welfare for elderly Operation of the Welfare And Medical Service Agency Operation of the National Center for Persons with Severe Intellectual

Disabilities, Nozominosono Development of the National Center for Persons with Severe

Intellectual Disabilities, Nozominosono Miscellaneous expenses for services and supports for persons with disabilities National rehabilitation facilities

Expenditure for social insurance State subsidy for child allowance Promotion for Long-Term Care Insurance Miscellaneous expenses for medical care for elderly and Long-Term Care InsuranceLong-Term Care Insurance subsidies Health Insurance Society subsidies National Health Insurance subsidies Implementation of Farmers Pension Pension Fund Association subsidies National Pension Fund subsidies, etc. State subsidy for social insuranceState subsidy for Employees' Pension Insurance State subsidy for National Pension State subsidy for special disability benefits

Expenditure for public health services Miscellaneous expenses for public health services Development of public health facilities Measures for atomic bomb casualties Facilities of National Peace Memorial Hall for the Atomic Bomb Victims Medical care for tuberculosis Management of national hospitals and clinics Facilities of national hospitals and clinics Management of National Centers for Advanced and Specialized Medical Care Facilities of National Centers for Advanced and Specialized Medical Care Operation of the National Hospital Organization Development of the National Hospital Organization facilities Facilities of the National Hansen's Disease Museum Mental health care Implementation of medical care and treatment, etc. Quarantine stations National Hansen's Disease Sanatoria

Expenditure for unemployment measures Projects for employment in specialized area development Projects for job conversion measures State subsidy for employment insurance

Others Total amount of the General Account budget allocated for MHLW Total amount of the General Account budget

Changes in the General Account Expenditure Budget Classified by Expense Item Allocated for MHLW(Unit: ¥ million)

19

20082,005,3361,658,895

1,887113

37,500327,626

82,0508,270

166,72413,71619,50042,784

922,6162,596

9012,886

4,2816,2796,697

889167

2,22417,345,415

6,995,806381,429

53,6741,779

3,025

13

740256,392

11,674

7,425,7822,460

68,2591,923,562

38,065182,755408,123

37,721

6,030

47,854

3,32025,490

6,0542,347

149,4251,142

8031,1622,6681,700

14,860209

1,098725

23,418500447

21,19616,74143,214

195,418978

22,238161,189

2143,3513,6343,812

509,07022,122,25783,061,340

09 1019,545,113

7,718,4622,250

9,854,4591,969,9422,096,8882,383,608

1,887110

65,27217,85748,782

25565

38,800340,102

-252,300

84,3908,127

169,314-

5,03321,00041,390

941,7842,382

-

9,95911,448

4,138-

4,8112,579

74,30849,425

178,5786,657

231171

2,185-

433,3374,124

46741,497

4,75745,972

3,217-----------

23,5845,860

-2,275

148,8931,1367,4531,150

47,0692,086

73513,740

198931

1,03030,384

6,572687

2,59419,957

5,63411,335

193,286401

102

22,319160,175

-157

3,3513,5683,304

504,61425,156,846

88,548,001

20,274,7798,072,046

-10,122,389

2,080,3452,238,8203,804,447

1,587103

81,69215,20929,793

--

36,100353,362

-1,514,767

85,93411,471

176,4130

5,03324,00039,654

1,064,6642,264

291

8,54311,140

4,121-

3,3171,506

75,79336,307

211,8316,478

755171

2,152-

424,9182,538

386-

-43,682

3,1218,803

5205,9024,5951,6188,455

7425,008

-3,459

-28,430

5,701-

2,541150,716

9882,0741,198

40,7594,9441,229

15,822160

1,0981,229

33,5856,865

8412,299

19,3015,238

11,073336,317

371

-4

25,720301,040

---

3,3482,7693,066

476,81827,556,099

92,299,193

1120,970,322

8,393,427-

10,373,2152,203,6802,606,5114,294,558

1,17899

70,3438,334

24,750---

374,382-

1,959,84087,70113,235

185,50250,000

3,00020,00033,822

1,128,5982,261

-

7,89111,727

3,948-

2,2801,408

69,65918,313

206,4306,4061,217

1672,070

-389,176

2,881362

-

-36,202

-8,755

5105,4284,513

-7,514

2614,666

4003,613

-24,954

5,492-

2,493143,733

879754

3,37432,149

2,015783

21,129113

1,0571,532

29,8106,675

7131,964

18,7504,936

10,764254,689

333

-4

13,289215,551

17,266-

3,3472,0392,861

448,58628,963,843

92,411,613

(Unit: ¥ million)

Pension/health care/long-term care insurance benefits Miscellaneous expenses for health care insurance benefits Transfer of expenses for sickness insurance benefits, etc. to Special Account for National Pension Transfer of contributions for Basic Pension, etc. to Special Account for National Pension Promotion of long-term care insurance operation


Support measures for atomic bomb casualties, etc Promotion of drug safety measures, etc. Miscellaneous expenses for health care insurance benefits Transfer of miscellaneous expenses for health insurance business debts to Special Account for National Pension Promotion of medical expenditure control Transfer of expenses for sickness insurance benefits, etc. to Special Account for Seamen's Insurance Transfer of operation expenses to Special Account for Seamen's Insurance Community child rearing support measures Operation of day-care centers Transfer of benefits for children by way of performance in money to Special Account for National PensionTransfer of child allowance to Special Account for National Pension Child abuse prevention measures Maternal and child health measures Measures for fatherless families, etc. Children and childcare support measures Development of child welfare facilities Promotion of community welfare Miscellaneous social welfare expenses Health and welfare for persons with disabilities Operation of the National Center for Persons with Severe Intellectual Disabilities, Nozominosono Development of the National Center for Persons with Severe Intellectual Disabilities, Nozominosono Transfer of expenses for special disability benefits to Special Account for National Pension Development of social welfare facilities Operation of the Welfare And Medical Service AgencyOperation of public pension systemsTransfer of contributions for Basic Pension, etc. to Special Account for National Pension Appropriate operation of corporate pension, etc. Promotion of daily life support for elderly Promotion of long-term care insurance operation Transfer of operation expenses to Special Account for National Pension Common expenses for national rehabilitation facilities National rehabilitation facilities Operation of National Homes for Juvenile Training and Education Operation of national rehabilitation facilitiesTransfer of disaster measures promotion to Special account for reconstruction after the Great East Japan Earthquake

Expenditure for public health services Measures for securing medical service provision system

Promotion of medical safety Transfer of management expenses, etc. to Special Account for National Advanced and Specialized Medical Center Transfer of facility expenses, etc. to Special Account for National Advanced and Specialized Medical Center Operation of the National Hospital Organization Development of the National Hospital Organization facilities Operation of the National Cancer Center Development of facilities of the National Cancer Center Operation of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center Operation of National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry Development of National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry Operation of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine Development of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine Operation of the National Center for Child Health and Development Development of the National Center for Child Health and DevelopmentDevelopment of the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology Operation of the National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology Measures against infectious diseases Measures against specific diseases, etc. Facilities of the National Hansen's Disease MuseumPromotion of medical transplantation Support measures for atomic bomb casualties, etc Measures for blood products Measures for securing important drugs Promotion of research and development of drugs Development of medical service provision system/infrastructure Measures for regional health services Development of public health facilities Measures for health promotion Promotion of health risk management Measures against narcotics and stimulants, etc. Measures for environmental health Health and welfare for persons with disabilities Common expenses for quarantine stations Implementation of quarantine duties, etc. Implementation of imported food inspection Common expenses for National Hansen's Disease Sanatoria Facilities of National Hansen's Disease Sanatoria Operation of National Hansen's Disease Sanatoria

Employment and industrial accident measures Transfer of insurance benefits of Workers' Accident Compensation Insurance to Special Account for Labour Insurance Transfer of expenses for pension benefits in the course of duties to Special Account for Seamen's Insurance Transfer of expenses for pension benefits in the course of duties to Special Account for National Pension Employment security/promotion for elderly, etc. Transfer of unemployment, etc. benefits to Special Account for Labour Insurance Transfer of expenses for employment support projects to Special Account for Labour Insurance Transfer of expenses for unemployment insurance benefits to Special Account for Seamen's Insurance Vocational ability enhancement Vocational ability development support for young people, etc. Vocational ability development support for persons with disabilities, etc. Others Total amount of the General Account budget allocated for MHLW Total amount of the General Account budget


Support measures for atomic bomb casualties, etc Promotion of drug safety measures, etc. Community child rearing support measures Operation of day-care centers Child abuse prevention measures Maternal and child health measures Measures for fatherless families, etc. Development of child welfare facilities Promotion of community welfare Miscellaneous social welfare expenses Health and welfare for persons with disabilities Operation of the National Center for Persons with Severe Intellectual Disabilities, Nozominosono Development of the National Center for Persons with Severe Intellectual Disabilities, Nozominosono Development of social welfare facilities Operation of the Welfare And Medical Service Agency Promotion of daily life support for elderly Common expenses for national rehabilitation facilities National rehabilitation facilities Operation of National Homes for Juvenile Training and Education Operation of national rehabilitation facilities

Expenditure for social insurance Miscellaneous expenses for health care insurance benefits Transfer of insurance benefits, etc. to Special Account for National Pension Promotion of medical expenditure control Transfer of promotion expenses of medical expenditure control to Special Account for National Pension Transfer of expenses for sickness insurance benefits, etc. to Special Account for Seamen's Insurance Transfer of expenses for pension benefits in the course of duties to Special Account for Seamen's Insurance Transfer of operation expenses to Special Account for Seamen's Insurance Transfer of child allowance to Special Account for National Pension Transfer of expenses for special disability benefits to Special Account for National Pension Transfer of contributions for Basic Pension, etc. to Special Account for National Pension Promotion and dissemination of corporate pension, etc. Promotion of daily life support for elderly Promotion of long-term care insurance operation Transfer of long-term care insurance levies to Special Account for National Pension Transfer of operation expenses to Special Account for National Pension

Expenditure for public health services Transfer of management expenses, etc. to Special Account for National Advanced and Specialized Medical Center Transfer of facility expenses, etc. to Special Account for National Advanced and Specialized Medical Center Operation of the National Hospital Organization

Development of the National Hospital Organization facilities

Measures against infectious diseases Measures against specific diseases, etc. Promotion of medical transplantation Support measures for atomic bomb casualties, etc Measures for blood products Measures for securing important drugs Promotion of research and development of drugs Measures for regional health services Development of public health facilities Measures for health promotion Promotion of health risk management Measures against narcotics and stimulants, etc. Measures for environmental health Health and welfare for persons with disabilities Facilities of quarantine stations Implementation of quarantine duties, etc. Common expenses for National Hansen's Disease Sanatoria Facilities of National Hansen's Disease Sanatoria Operation of National Hansen's Disease Sanatoria

Expenditure for unemployment measures Measures for creating regional employment opportunities Employment security/promotion for elderly, etc. Transfer of unemployment, etc. benefits to Special Account for Labour Insurance Transfer of expenses for unemployment insurance benefits to Special Account for Seamen's Insurance Vocational ability enhancement Vocational ability development support for young people, etc. Vocational ability development support for persons with disabilities, etc.

Others Total amount of the General Account budget allocated for MHLW Total amount of the General Account budget

1219,035,041

8,603,613 -

8,092,266 2,339,162 2,831,887 3,749,307

945 94

65,746 14,860 25,800

- - -

396,225 1,285,832

- 93,564 13,945

185,635 30,700

2,700 23,724 33,447

1,247,639 1,977

-

7,698 6,930 3,571

- 2,238 1,596

69,70814,534

211,808 6,151

35 170

2,034 -

378,775 2,962

333 -

- 28,623

- 8,204

- 5,091 4,761

450 7,321

100 4,405

451 3,852

- 24,111

5,373 225

2,449 144,059

846 -

4,834 30,027

1,896 883

18,744 65

946 1,587

32,946 6,777

669 1,804

18,330 4,860

10,792 220,196

317

- 4

12,002 171,369

28,516 -

3,447 2,038 2,504

472,118 26,687,323

(*) 90,333,932

1321,787,209

8,878,863 -

10,416,708 2,491,638 2,861,438 3,738,691

695 88

58,575 11,943 24,886

- - -

425,625 1,258,205

- 96,537 12,872

192,077 -

2,300 25,000 37,118

1,346,448 1,845

-

7,352 5,937 3,353

463 2,022 1,821

67,147 12,250

132,491 5,739

169 156

2,392 3,187

353,897 3,281

397 -

- 22,958

- 7,425

29 4,605 4,534

402 6,914

333 3,996

- 3,477

236 19,271

4,727 360

2,509 144,699

490 -

3,401 27,774

1,814 883

14,686 65

945 1,705

29,829 6,195

713 2,826

17,139 4,602

10,676 198,458

277

- 4

10,909 167,144

14,451 -

3,448 161

2,065 492,408

29,432,101

92,611,539

Source: Finance Division, Minister's Secretariat, MHLW (Note) 1. The sums in the breakdown may not equal the total due to rounding.

2. The figures for MHLW budget up to FY2001 were calculated as the sum of the budget of the former Ministry of Health and Welfare and that of the Ministry of Labour.

3. The budget items have been arranged in FY2008 budget in order to strengthen the coordination between policy evaluation and budget/settled account. 4. Categories of social security-related expenses were reviewed in FY2009 budget.5. The FY2012 pension difference portion (i.e. the difference between the state subsidy rate for basic pension of 1/2 and 36.5% (*)) was originally intended to be

financed by government bonds for pension funds but was then changed to stop-gap public bonds (special bonds for covering public pension funding). It was increased in the FY2012 supplementary budget.

20

Social Security Benefits

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90(¥10,000)

0

Trends in Social Security BenefitsOverview

1990198019701960

47.2

24.8

3.50.1 0.7

20092000

78.1

2012(Budget based)

109.5

1950

99.9

(¥ trillion)

National Income (¥trillion) ATotal Benefits (¥trillion) B(Breakdown) Pension

Medical services Welfare, etc.

B / A

61.0(100.0%)

(24.3%) (58.9%)(16.8%)

5.77%

1970203.9

(100.0%) (42.2%) (43.3%)(14.5%)12.15%

1980346.9

(100.0%)(50.9%) (38.9%)(10.2%)13.61%

1990371.8

(100.0%) (52.7%) (33.3%) (14.0%)

21.01%

2000349.4

(100.0%)(49.1%) (32.1%) (18.8%)31.34%

2012 (budget based)

Source: “Social Security Benefits FY2009”, National Institute of Population and Social Security ResearchFY2010-2012 (budget based) - Estimated by the MHLWNational Income for FY2012 - “Fiscal 2012 Economic Outlook and Basic Stance for Economic and Fiscal Management”

(Decided by the Cabinet on January 24, 2012)(Note) The figures shown in the diagram are social security benefits (¥ trillion) of 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2009, and

FY2012 (budget based).

3.5 0.92.10.6

24.810.510.7

3.6

47.224.018.4

4.8

78.1 41.226.010.9

109.553.835.120.6

Social security benefits per person (scale on the right)

Welfare, etc.

Medical services

Pension

PensionMedical servicesWelfare, etc.Social security benefits per person

21

19501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963

1964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

1,2611,5712,1942,5773,8413,8933,9864,3575,0805,7786,5537,9009,219

11,214

13,47516,03718,67021,64425,09628,75235,23940,25849,84562,58790,270

117,693145,165168,868197,763219,832247,736275,638300,973319,733336,396356,798385,918407,337424,582448,822472,203501,346538,280568,039604,660647,243675,402694,087721,333750,338781,191813,928835,584842,582858,660877,827891,098914,305940,848998,507

646804

1,1491,4801,7121,9192,0182,2242,0992,5232,9423,8504,6995,885

7,3289,137

10,76612,58314,67916,97520,75822,50528,11134,27047,20857,13268,09876,25689,16797,743

107,329115,221124,118130,983135,654142,830151,489160,001166,726175,279183,795195,056209,395218,059228,656240,520251,711252,987253,989263,863259,953266,309262,643266,048271,454281,094281,027289,462296,117308,447

51.251.152.357.544.649.350.651.041.343.744.948.751.052.5

54.457.057.758.158.559.058.955.956.454.852.348.546.945.245.144.543.341.841.241.040.340.039.339.339.339.138.938.938.938.437.837.237.336.435.235.233.332.731.431.631.632.031.531.731.530.9

615768

1,0461,0962,1291,9741,9692,1332,9813,2553,6114,0504,5205,329

3,0563,5084,1994,9475,8356,9358,562

10,19212,36716,75826,78238,83153,41565,88078,37789,817

104,525120,420133,404144,108154,527168,923187,620199,874210,459225,407240,420256,145274,013290,376310,084334,986349,548363,996384,105399,112412,012425,714443,781447,845455,188462,930473,253482,735495,443517,246

22.721.922.522.923.324.124.325.324.826.829.733.036.839.039.640.942.243.744.345.145.947.348.649.149.650.250.951.150.951.151.351.851.852.453.253.252.752.353.153.253.052.753.152.852.751.8

3,0913,3923,7054,1144,5824,8425,9207,5619,367

11,55916,28021,73023,65226,73230,21932,27235,88239,99743,45144,64246,21645,04446,80947,46247,39748,13647,98950,14554,87259,60365,92071,73874,14377,10483,23987,363

109,225121,905129,159128,689132,018133,803136,818142,107149,289172,814

22.921.219.819.018.316.816.818.818.818.518.018.516.315.815.314.714.514.514.414.013.712.612.111.711.210.710.210.010.210.510.911.111.011.111.511.614.015.015.515.315.415.215.415.515.917.3

FYTotal

(¥100 million)Medical services

(¥100 million)Percentage distribution

(%)Pension/other welfare

(¥100 million)48.848.947.742.555.450.749.449.058.756.355.151.349.047.5

Percentage distribution(%)

Pension(¥100 million)


Other welfare(¥100 million)


Social security benefits

(Note) The figures may not add up to the total due to rounding.

Changes in Social Security Benefits by CategoryDetailed Data 1

22

19511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

3.544.214.295.835.585.054.915.415.234.864.915.155.315.605.985.905.765.745.525.776.116.406.538.039.49

10.3410.8511.5112.0712.1513.0313.6713.8213.8413.6914.4014.4914.0313.9913.6113.5914.7115.5516.3417.5417.7718.1619.5520.5921.0122.5323.4923.5323.6023.9923.7524.1626.7629.44

FYTotal

1.812.202.472.602.752.562.512.242.282.182.392.632.793.053.413.403.353.363.263.403.413.613.584.204.614.854.905.195.365.265.445.645.665.585.485.655.695.515.465.305.295.725.976.186.526.626.626.887.246.997.377.387.437.467.687.497.658.429.09

Medical services

1.271.311.331.321.331.331.401.551.591.752.383.133.804.234.564.935.135.696.066.236.366.487.007.116.957.036.936.947.497.958.389.089.199.52

10.4110.9511.0811.7812.4712.5112.5112.6512.6112.7614.0915.25

1.732.011.833.232.832.492.413.182.952.682.522.532.53

Pension

1.291.261.171.101.050.930.971.151.201.211.451.751.681.721.761.771.761.891.971.931.901.731.751.691.571.501.381.361.501.631.781.941.952.022.262.402.943.373.633.593.633.663.653.754.255.09

Welfare, etc.

44,34652,15960,01565,91769,73378,96288,68193,829

110,421134,967160,819178,933210,993240,514268,270316,448375,477437,209521,178610,297659,105779,369958,396

1,124,7161,239,9071,403,9721,557,0321,717,7851,822,0662,038,7872,116,1512,201,3142,312,9002,431,1722,605,5992,679,4152,810,9983,027,1013,208,0203,468,9293,689,3163,660,0723,653,7603,700,1093,689,3673,801,6093,822,9453,689,7573,643,4093,718,0393,613,3353,557,6103,580,7923,638,9763,658,7833,752,2583,784,6363,515,2213,392,234

National Income(¥100 million)

Social security benefits (in percentage of National Income)

Source: Up to FY1954 - “Annual Report on National Income Statistics 1978”, Economic Planning Agency From FY1955 to FY1977 - “Long-Term Retroactive Report of National Accounts”, Economic Planning AgencyFrom FY1978 to FY1979 - “Annual Report on National Accounts 2000”, Economic Planning Agency From FY1980 to FY2009 - “Annual Report on National Accounts 2011”, Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office

Changes in Social Security Benefits (in Percentage of National Income) by Category(Unit: %)

Detailed Data 2

23

Social Security Benefits and Burdens

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

¥131.8 trillion(23.6%)

¥144.8 trillion(23.7%)

Future estimation of expenses of social security systems○ Prospects with the expense of benefits

The expense of benefits will increase from ¥109.5 trillion (22.8% of GDP) in FY2012 to ¥148.9 trillion (24.4% of GDP) by FY2025.

FY2012<¥479.6 trillion>




(¥ trillion)

Pensions

Medical care

Long-term careChild/childcareOthers

¥109.5 trillion(22.8%)

¥119.8 trillion(23.5%)

¥134.4 trillion(24.1%)

¥148.9 trillion(24.4%)

¥118.7 trillion(23.3%)

Current projectionAfter reform

(Note) 1. The effect of improvements, prioritization, and optimization has been reflected in the “concrete measures, procedures, and estimated cost of social security reform”. (However, the effect of “II Medical and long-term care services, etc. [2] Strengthening of safety-net functions and prioritization of benefits from medical and long-term care insurance systems through functional enhancement of the insurers, and measures against regressivity” and “III Pensions” has not)

2. The figures for “Child/childcare” are total numbers that encompass day-care centers, kindergartens, extended day-care services, community-based childrearing support centers, temporary day-care services, benefits in cash for children, child care leave benefits, maternity allowances, social child care, and health checkups for pregnant women, and assuming implementation of the new systems.

3. The figures in parentheses indicate the percentage of GDP. The figures in angle brackets indicate the amount of GDP.

Review of Social Security Benefits and BurdensOverview

* The total amount of insurance premiums is expected to increase through expanding application of Employees’ Health Insurance and the introduction of total compensation for long-term care insurance levies. However, the effect on the insurance premiums of individual insurers will vary depending on the system used and their income level. Not all people will face an increasing burden with respect to their insurance premiums. This comprehensive reform takes into consideration the burden of low-income earners by strengthening measures for them, and which include reducing their National Health Insurance premiums and long-term care insurance and adding to their pensions. This will result, for example, the strengthened measures to reduce the insurance premiums of the primary insured of long-term care insurance for low-income people having the effect of reducing their insurance premium level by around 30% when the entire amount of the income (up to ¥130 billion) is allocated to reducing insurance premiums. (Note) The effect of improvements, prioritization, and optimization has been reflected in the figures in the bar chart of the “concrete

measures, procedures, and estimated cost social security reform” . (However, the effect of “II Medical and long-term care services, etc. [2] Strengthening of safety-net functions and prioritization of benefits from medical and long-term care insurance systems through functional enhancement of the insurers, and measures against regressivity” and “III Pensions” has not)

Overall image of prospects with the burden of social security expenses

<2012>

Insurance premiums

¥60.6 trillion(60%)

(12.6% of GDP)

Public funding¥40.6 trillion

(40%)(8.5% of GDP)

Total ¥101.2 trillion

(21.1% of GDP)

<2015>Current projection

Insurance premiums


(12.9% of GDP)


(41%)(8.8% of GDP)


(21.7% of GDP)

After reform

Insurance premiums


(13.0% of GDP)


(41%)(8.9% of GDP)


(21.9% of GDP)

<2025>Current projection

Insurance premiums


(13.7% of GDP)


(41%)(9.5% of GDP)


(23.3% of GDP)

After reform

Insurance premiums


(14.0% of GDP)


(41%)(9.9% of GDP)


(23.9% of GDP)

[Medical/long-term care] [Pension]Increase

Increase Increase

Major matters not included in the estimation

Increased public funding• Changing the operating unit of

National Health Insurance to the individual prefectures, strengthening of the financial basis

• Strengthening measures that reduce the insurance premiums of the primary insured of long-term care insurance for low-income people

Increased insurance premiums (*)• Expanding application of

Employees’ Health Insurance• Introduction of total

compensation for long-term care insurance levies

• Total unitary system(reduction of co-payments)

• Expanding application of Employees’ Pension (*)

• Strengthening minimum safeguard functionality(Collectively discuss alongside the review of the pension benefits of high-income people (factor in public funding reduction))

24

National Burden Ratio

1970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012

12.712.813.314.714.011.712.011.813.513.713.914.414.514.815.115.016.017.017.217.818.117.115.715.614.614.914.514.513.913.514.213.812.912.713.214.314.413.913.011.912.112.313.0

FY NationalTax[1]

12.012.012.513.913.411.111.211.112.813.013.213.713.914.014.414.715.616.616.817.117.316.214.914.813.814.113.714.113.413.013.613.312.312.112.513.413.113.512.611.411.511.712.1

General Account

tax revenue6.16.46.46.87.36.66.87.17.17.77.88.28.58.68.88.99.29.79.99.99.69.59.49.28.89.19.29.59.79.69.69.89.49.19.29.59.7

10.611.310.4

9.89.79.8

Local tax

[2]18.919.219.821.421.318.318.818.920.621.421.722.623.023.324.024.025.226.727.227.727.726.625.124.823.424.023.824.023.623.123.723.722.321.822.423.824.224.624.322.221.922.022.7

Tax burden

[3]=[1]+[2]5.45.95.95.97.07.57.88.38.58.88.89.69.89.79.8

10.010.110.1

9.910.210.610.711.211.511.812.712.713.113.513.613.614.314.514.514.314.614.715.016.316.416.816.817.1

Social security burden

[4]24.325.225.627.428.325.726.627.329.230.230.532.232.833.133.733.935.336.837.137.938.437.436.336.335.236.736.537.137.236.737.338.036.836.336.838.438.939.540.638.638.738.839.9

National burden

ratio[5]=[3]+[4]

0.52.52.80.73.37.57.28.38.08.78.28.27.97.15.95.14.32.91.41.00.10.54.56.78.19.38.77.7

10.612.9

9.99.4

11.110.5

8.26.34.63.76.9

13.511.911.011.4

Fiscal Deficit

[6]24.927.728.428.131.633.333.835.637.138.938.740.440.640.139.739.039.639.638.538.938.537.940.843.043.346.045.244.847.748.947.247.447.946.844.944.743.543.247.552.150.649.851.2

Latent national

burden ratio[7]=[3]+[4]+[6]

61.065.977.995.8

112.5124.0140.4155.7171.8182.2203.9211.6220.1231.3243.1260.6267.9281.1302.7320.8346.9368.9366.0365.4370.0368.9380.2382.3369.0364.3371.8361.3355.8358.1363.9365.9375.2378.5351.5339.2345.5351.1349.4

NationalIncome

(NI)

19.720.020.722.523.020.921.822.324.024.425.025.726.126.526.626.827.728.529.029.229.529.127.527.526.627.227.227.627.226.827.527.826.726.326.827.928.629.028.927.627.928.129.1

National burden ratioto-GDP ratio

(Reference)

75.382.996.5

116.7138.5152.4171.3190.1208.6225.2248.4264.6276.2288.8308.2330.4342.3362.3387.7415.9451.7473.6483.3482.6489.4497.7509.1513.6503.3499.5504.1493.6489.9493.7498.5503.2510.9515.7494.2474.0479.2483.8479.6

GDP

Source: Ministry of Finance Japan(Note) 1. The unit for National Income and GDP is ¥ trillion and is % for others.

2. The figures up to FY2010 are actual numbers, those for FY2011 expected numbers, and those for FY2012 projected numbers. 3. The figures on and after FY1980 are calculated based on 93SNA and those up to FY1979 are calculated based on 68SNA. However, figures

for tax burdens are calculated based on tax revenues and differ from SNA-based figures. 4. The figures for National Tax include the Special Accounts and the levies on Japan Tobacco and Salt Public Corporation. Special local

corporate taxes (the corporate business taxes partly introduced to the national taxes in the FY2008 tax reform. The total amount is transferred to local governments. The tax revenue in FY2012 is 0.5% of the National Income) are included in National Tax.

5. The social security contribution coefficient for FY2009 and FY2010 was adjusted to balance with the actual value in and before FY2008, etc.6. The fiscal deficit figures indicate deficits in the national and local fiscal balances, and temporary special factors are excluded. More concretely,

the long-term debt of the Japanese National Railways and accumulated debt of the National Forest Service were excluded in FY1998, the debt of the Honshu-Shikoku Bridge Authority was transferred to the General Account in FY2003, the influence of transferred assets and liabilities due to the privatization of the Four Highway-related Public Corporations in FY2005, transfer from the Fiscal Loan Fund Account of the Special Account for Fiscal Investment and Loan Program (Fiscal Loan Fund Special Account in FY2006) to the Special Account for the National Debt Consolidation Fund or General Account in FY2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011, and a transfer from the Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency to the General Account in FY2011, etc.

Trends in National Burden Ratio (in the Percentage of National Income)Overview

25

Social security burden ratioTax burden ratioFiscal deficit to National Income ratio

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80(Ratio to National Income: %)

62.5

53.2

45.8

30.3

39.9

60.1

51.2(37.3)(37.3)

42.5(34.0)(34.0) 60.0

(47.3)(47.3)57.2

(42.8)(42.8)70.3

(51.7)(51.7) 63.9(45.0)(45.0)

-11.4

22.7 21.6

35.0 30.3 34.9

50.2

17.18.7

10.8 22.925.2

-12.2 -14.2-4.1

-10.2 -1.3

12.4

Sweden(2009)

France(2009)

Germany(2009)

U.K.(2009)

U.S.A.(2009)

Japan(FY2012)

Latent National Burden Ratio(figures in parentheses indicate the ratio to GDP)

National Burden Ratio(figures in parentheses indicate the ratio to GDP)

(29.1)

(24.3)

(36.1)

(39.8)

(44.2)(44.1)

(Note) 1. The figures for Japan (FY2012) are projected numbers and those for other countries are actual numbers from 2009. 2. The fiscal deficit to National Income ratio of Japan and U.S.A. is based on the General Government Accounts

with social security fund subtracted and that for other countries is based on the General Government Accounts.[Sources for foreign countries] "National Accounts" (OECD), " Revenue Statistics" (OECD), etc.

[National Burden Ratio = Tax Burden Ratio + Social Security Burden Ratio] [Latent National Burden Ratio = National Burden Ratio + Budget Deficit to National Income Ratio]

International Comparison of National Burden Ratio

I Overview of the System and the Basic Statistics ... - mhlw

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Transcript of I Overview of the System and the Basic Statistics ... - mhlw