I have $5 Million to spend onGearbox Maintenance this year.How should I spend it?Sentient Science Webinar Series

04/15/2023

Presenter

Stephen SteenHead of Industrial Internet Services

ssteen@sentientscience.com

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

How do I spend money to insure energy availability?

How to I balance spending for both immediate GBX availability and long term fleet value?

How do I get the best pricing on GBX replacement inventory?

How to I make sure I won’t break the bank – spending above OPEX ceilings?

How do I engage financial managers when budgeting uses historic O&M data instead of future projections?

What’s a Manager to Do?

I have $5 Million to Spend on Gearbox Maintenance this Year. How Should I Spend

it?

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

• Planned preventative maintenance (PPM) costs versus Predictive health maintenance (PHM)

• What’s the needed planning horizon?

PPM vs. PHM

Past

DIAGONSTICS

Future

PROGNOSTICS

• Diagnostics versus Prognostics

• Discussion regarding risk using Prognostics

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

Time

Con

diti

on

First visible detection (vibration, borescope, heat, etc.)DigitalClone Detection

DigitalClone Life Extension Decision Support

Failure/Crack Progression

Non-Visible Non-Visible Non-Visible Visible

How Does DigitalClone Work on Gearboxes?Predict Earlier & More Accurately

Not Visible Not Visible Not Visible Visible

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

Worlds Most Tested Products

Products with the Lowest Cost of Operation

Where Else Is Prognostics Being Applied?

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

• Region with 8-10 sites• One major wind-turbine brand

plus assorted others (acquisitions)

• Likely 600+ GBX• Majority of fleet is off-

warrantee• CBM mix in place• Starting to see increasing

number of GBX failures • Strong management pressure

(and bonus) on maintaining or reducing ANNUAL OPEX spend

• Use DigitalClone® Live as the prognostics IT system

Assumptions to Start With:

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

Step 1 Develop a PHM-powered list of GBX to replace over the next 3 years,

where and when

SENTIENT SCIENCEBuffalo, NY

SENTIENT SCIENCE

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

For impending damage units, De-rate 40 units and do oil changes to extend their life and get them to a planned up-tower replacement schedule

Step 2

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

• Borescope those 40 machines to confirm prognostics

• Damage first noticed in Dec, 2014

• Spalling and pitting on main shaft DW tapered roller bearings, seems to be progressing

• No gear damage

Step 3

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How Should I Spend It?

Do 20 up-tower component replacements on units that provide the greatest ROI benefit

Step 4

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How Should I Spend It?

Do 8 gearbox exchanges with “upgraded” units containing upgraded bearings

Step 5

“To Be”“As Is”

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

Develop upgraded energy plan to optimize energy output against extending fleet life beyond 20 years

Step 6

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How Should I Spend It?

Cover headcount and operation costs

Step 7

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

Go to an island for vacation

Step 8

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How Should I Spend It?

Action Cost

1 Develop a PHM-powered list of GBX and components to replace over the next 3 years, where and when.

$150,000

2 De-rate 40 units and do oil changes to extend their life and get them to a planned up-tower replacement schedule.

$1,070,000

3 Borescope those 40 machines to confirm prognostics. $100,000

4 Do 20 up-tower component replacements. $1,060,000

5 Do 8 gearbox replacements with upgraded bearings. $2,070,000

6 Develop upgraded energy plan to optimize energy output against extending fleet life beyond 20 years.

$25,000

7 Cover headcount and operation. $500,000

8 Go to island for vacation. $25,000

ALL IN $5,000,000

Summary:

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?

• Its now possible to plan for up-tower component repairs instead of full gearbox replacement with a multi-year plan of where, when, and how many components should be replaced. Dramatic reduction in the cost of full GBX replacements

• Its now possible to plan gearbox replacement, inventory, and supply chain planning with a 10-year horizon. Better pricing and inventory availability on supplier contracts

• Its now possible to maintain a fleet using prognostics (going forward planning) instead of PPM and diagnostics only input. Better, more reliable multi-year budget planning

• Prognostics can help extend the RUL of components and gearboxes, provide better input planning, and reduce your O&M budget. Better balance between short term repair spend and long term

asset value

What Can We Learn Here?

04/15/2023

How Should I Spend It?