HYDROSPHERE Resource Consultants
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HYDROSPHERE Resource Consultants July 30, 2004 Severe and Sustained Drought 29 th Colorado Water Workshop
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HYDROSPHERE Resource Consultants. Severe and Sustained Drought. 29 th Colorado Water Workshop. July 30, 2004. The Project. The beginnings Objectives Hydrology Impacts Responses. What is a drought?. Hydrologic drought Consecutive flows below the mean flow Depends on mean - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of HYDROSPHERE Resource Consultants
HYDROSPHEREResource Consultants
July 30, 2004
Severe and Sustained Drought
29th Colorado Water Workshop
The Project
• The beginnings
• Objectives – Hydrology– Impacts– Responses
What is a drought?
• Hydrologic drought– Consecutive flows below the mean flow– Depends on mean– Mean depends on period of record
• System drought– Low-flow conditions that cause distress– Depends on storage, deliveries, policy
The Drought
• System context is c. 1992
• 38-year scenario (1579-1616)
• Re-arranged to increase onset intensity
• Low flow period, recovery period
• 2000 - 10000–year return interval
• “Probable extreme drought”
SSD Drought Trace
SSD Scenario vs Natural Order
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Annu
al Flo
w, m
af Natural Order
Baseline
Impacts
• Reservoir storage
• Water availability
• Power and energy
• Water quality
• Social
• Economic
• Environmental
Reservoir Contents
Powell and Mead ContentsSSD Drought
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Conte
nts, m
af
Powell
Mead
Water Availability
DepletionsSSD Drought
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Deple
tions
, maf
Upper Division
Lower Division
Energy
System Hydropower GenerationSSD Drought
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Gene
ration
, mWh Baseline
Water Quality
Salinity Below Hoover DamSSD Drought Baseline
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Salin
ity, p
pm
Mitigation
• Actions identified in gaming
• Intrastate actions
• Interstate actions– Reverse equalization– Relaxation of compact
Lee Ferry Deliveries
Lee Ferry Depleted FlowsSSD Drought Scenarios
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Annu
al Flo
w, m
af
Baseline
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Powell
Lake Powell ContentsSSD Scenarios
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Cont
ents,
maf
Baseline
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Mead
Lake Mead ContentsSSD Scenarios
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Conte
nts, m
af
Baseline
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Depletions
DepletionsSSD Drought Scenarios
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Deple
tions
, maf
Upper Baseline
Lower Baseline
Upper Scenario 1
Upper Scenario 2
Lower Scenario 1
Lower Scenario 2
You are hereLee Ferry Natural Flows
SSD Drought vs. Current Conditions
200420032002
20012000
19991998
1997
1996
1995
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Annu
al Flow
, maf
Baseline
Current
Powell: SSD vs. CurrentLake Powell Contents
SSD Drought vs. Current Conditions
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
199919981997
19961995
0
5
10
15
20
25
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Conte
nts, m
af
Baseline
Current
Lee Ferry: SSD vs. Current
Lee Ferry Depleted FlowsSSD Drought vs. Current Conditions
2004200320022001
2000
1999
19981997
1996
1995
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Annu
al Flo
w, m
af Baseline
Current
Mead: SSD vs. CurrentLake Mead Contents
SSD Drought vs. Current Conditions
2004
20032002
2001
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38
Drought Year
Conte
nts, m
af
Baseline
Current
The Wisdom of Chairman Yogi
• It’s like déjà vu all over again.
• It ain’t over till it’s over.
• Making predictions is hard, particularly about the future.
• The future ain’t what it used to be.
Upper Colorado River Compact Issues• Quantification of states’ depletions
• Quantification of PPRs
• Quantification and allocation of channel losses
• Quantification and allocation of reservoir evaporation
• Overdrafts
Intrastate Issues
• Quantification of entitlement
• Quantification of PPRs
• Avoidance of overdrafts
• Administration of curtailment
• Mechanisms for Subordination/Offsets
Modeling Issues
• Colorado River Compact
• Upper Colorado River Compact
• Mexico Treaty
• Intrastate rights
• Present Perfected Rights
• Physical models
• Probabilistic Forecasting
