Håvard Devoid, ABB DK, Esbjerg 31 05 2012 The Energy · PDF fileAt the core: Reliable...

© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 1

The Energy We Love To HateSolutions that matter in the deep, cold and unconventional future

Håvard Devoid, ABB DK, Esbjerg 31 05 2012


Is oil & gas industry supply constrained?“Peak Oil” theory developed during 1950’s

Peak oil curve – global prediction(Hubbert ,1956)

Peak oil curve – global prediction(Hubbert ,1956)

US production vs. Hubbert predictionUS production vs. Hubbert prediction

Prod

uctio

n (B

bbl

s/yr

)

Prod

uctio

n (M

bbl

s/da

y)

Hubbert curve

US Production

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

10

8

6

4

2


Is oil & gas industry supply constrained? “Peak Oil” theory interest renewed in late 1990’s

Annual oil production (B bbls)

"Peak oil risk is real and serious" — Matthew

Simmons, author Twilight in the Desert: The

Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy

30

25

20

15

10

5

01930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

WorldWorld Outside Persian GulfPersian GulfUS and CanadaFormer Soviet UnionUK and Norway

06

Global peak oil predicted to occur in 2000’s –but production continues to increase

Publication

00Production

10


The new normal of relatively high and volatile oil pricesOil price closely linked to spare capacity

Oil Demand (1975 – 2030)Oil Demand (1975 – 2030)

USD/barrel

Oil price and effective spare capacityOil price and effective spare capacity

0

50

100

150

0

2

4

6

8

2000'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

Spare capacity

Crude

0

20

40

60

80

100

1975

56

'80

63

'85

57

'90

65

'95

68

'00

75

'05

81

'10

82

'15 '20 '25 '30

Million bbls / day

GlobalOPECNon-OPEC

0.8%

1.4%

Source: BP Statistical review, 2011, EIA, IEA; World Bank Commodity Pink sheet; crude price mix of WTI, Dubai, Brent

MBPD

CAGR


Demand for energy will continue to grow: Non-OECD per capita consumption and absolute population growth drivers long term


Nowhere is this more visible in ME vs Europe

Source: Jim Crane, Cambridge University


Big picture: Oil supply curveDemand requires development of resources beyond “easy” oil

Drivers: Technology, Economics & Geo-Politics

Source: IEA


Example: Reserves vs market priceIOR / Lifting cost influence

Source: Technip, IEA


Global market significant in size and growthOil & Gas indicative spend growing $684B to $950B (2010-15)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2010

108

122

188

236

684

2015

141

173

46

310

281

950

Upstream-Onshore

Upstream-Offshore

Midstream

Refining& Petchem

Chemical

• Investments driven by emerging market demand and steep decline rates in producing oil & gas fields

• Higher oil prices are new normal

• Gas, especially unconventional, gaining importance and high level of investment

• National Oil companies driving increasing share of investment and many imposing local content laws

• Deep water development growth continues

• Environmental concerns and potential legislation as uncertainties

• Aging workforce

• Geo-political uncertainty

• Importance of Water

Industry Drivers & trendsIndustry Drivers & trends

B USD

Source: Rystad Energy: INTSOK annual report 2009-2014 (E&P); Global Insight WIS, July 2010 (Refining, Petchem, Chemical); HPI 2010, JS Herold, IEA, EIA,

7%

Projection by geography (2010-15)Projection by geography (2010-15)Projection by segment (2010-15)Projection by segment (2010-15)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2010

60

89

211

56

126

142

684

2015

78

107

284

86

184

211

950

Asia Pacific

CIS

Europe

MEA

N. America

S. America

7%


ABB strategic footprint changes

Note: Not to scaleExample segment: upstream

Current OGP scopeNote portfolio has gaps

within some of these areas

Subsea

WellMMO

Drilling

Seismic

EPCMarine

Industry specific enablers:

safety, asset (reservoir) integrity,

IT infrastructure, operational

performance

Oil and Gas Companies


At the core: Reliable power and automation technologyfor safe, efficient and sustainable operations

SIL Certified Safety

HMI & Control Room

Electrical distr. andPower Optimization

Operational Service and Support

O i l p ro d u c t i o n r a t e v e rs u s t i m e

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

0 .0 2 .0 4 .0 6 .0 8 .0 10 . 0T IM E (h )

Oil p

rodu

ctio

n ra

te (M

stb/D

)

G a s l i ft r at e = 1 8 9 4 . M s c f /D

O il p r o d u ct io n r at e v er s u s g as l if t r at e

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0. 0 100 0.0 2000. 0 3000. 0 4000. 0 50 00. 0 600 0.0 7000. 0

G a s Li ft r ate (Ms cf/D )

Oil

pro

du

ctio

n ra

te (

Ms

tb/D

)

O il p rod uc tion rate - S table flowO il p rod uc tion rate - U ns tab le flow

Re g io n of o p t im u m o p e rat i o n

T PP F PCFCP

Telecom

Automation, Instrumentationand Simulation

Productivity andPerformance tuning

EPC

Integrated OperationCenters

AssetOptimization

Variable Speed Drives and Motors

SCADA, RTU

Terminalmgmt


Goliat ProjectGoliat FPSO


System 800xA – The Backbone

Base System servers Panel 800 System Workplaces

Extended Operator Workplaces

AC 800MHigh IntegrityController

ABB and 3rd partyPLC & DCS

Fire & GasAlam units

Shut-down

WirelessHART

S900 I/O

S800 I/O

WirelessHARTGateway

LV Switchgear

Variable Speed Drive

MotorController

AC 800MController

Protection &Control IED

Plant Network,ERP, CMMS…

System Networks

Field Networks

SubstationAutomation

ProcessElectrification

ProcessInstrumentation Safety PLC & DCS

IEC

618

50

PR

OFI

BU

S /

PR

OFI

NE

T / M

odul

ebus

/ D

evic

eNet

PR

OFI

BU

S /

Foun

datio

n Fi

eldb

us /

Mod

uleb

us

MO

DB

US

Mod

uleb

us

© ABB GroupJune 4, 2012 | Slide 14 LV Distribution

Industrial

400/230V

Integrated Electrical System

HV Motors

132/66kV

22kV

11kV

LV Motors

Power Transformers

400kV

HV Outdoor Switchgears

Indoor HV GIS

Indoor AIS

Indoor GIS

Ex

LV DrivesLV Distribution

Transformers

Power Transformers

Power Transformers

Battery UPS

HV Drives

LCIDrives

690V

Distribution Transformers

LV Switchboards

>20kVMotorformer

Turbines & Generators

Generator Transformers


Goliat ProjectOnline Flow Assurance System and Operator Training Simulator

Vendor: ABB and SPT GroupOperator: ENISite: NorwayDelivery: 2012

System Integration:• ABB process control• Aker subsea control

Model (OLGA):• 11 subsea production wells• Production and injection system• Topside separators

OLGA Online FAS:• Virtual Flow Metering• Liquid Inventory• Slug Monitoring• MEG Monitoring• Hydrate Monitoring• Pig Tracking• Wax Warning• Production Forecast• Well Start-Up Advisor• Ramp-up Advisor• Subsea Production System Training Simulator

ABB FAS Applications:• Active Flowline Control• Automatic Deduction Testing of Wells• Common User Interface


Goliat FPSO - Condition Monitoring System

Asset Management System (AMS)Condition Monitoring of Rotating Equipment

Turbines Compressors and diesel driven generatorsVibration and Performance Monitoring System

Valve MonitoringSmart Instrument MonitoringCondition Monitoring for Static Equipment Metering System MonitoringElectrical Monitoring

Monitoring of the sea cable UPS MonitoringDry transformersOil Filled TransformersCircuit breaker monitoringHeat TracingLow Voltage Switchboards High Voltage MonitoringVariable Speed Drive Monitoring

HVAC MonitoringFire and Gas Detectors MonitoringSub Sea MonitoringMarine Monitoring

Monitoring of the hull structureOffloading StationAnchor WinchesOffshore Cranes

Analyzers MonitoringTelecommunication Surveillance and Monitoring Systems PC, Network and Software MonitoringPerformance MonitoringRotating equipment performance monitoring Loop Performance Monitoring


Goliat FPSO – IO deliveries

IO infrastructureIT topology and infrastructure

HistoriansInterfacesData to shore

Collaboration roomsSystem viewer

Insight applications suiteAlarmInsightSafetyInsightOperationalInsightReporting and monitoring applicaitons

Flow assurance and Optimization Slug ControlOlga OnlineAutomated Well testing


Studies and FEEDExample: ADMA-OPCO – Long Term Offshore Power Supply

Scope of Work:ABB will provide an overview of alternatives for

optimal electric power supply to each facility/platform

Subsea cable design & calculationsHVDC calculations and sizing (including cost and

equipment key data)

Project description:Ensure long term electric power requirements at Das Island, USSC, ZWSC, USSC, ZCSC and new facilities. The project shall be designed to meet the power demand at the facilites up to 2030. It is expected that with the new Nuclear power stations to be built in UAE, these will supply all offshore fields with a “Power from Shore” concept and distribution via Das Island


And then we build

Shell Gas Iraq BV has let a $60 million contract to ABB for a power plant in southern Iraq that will deliver electricity to gas processing facilities as part of the Iraqi South Gas Project.ABB will be responsible for the overall project management, engineering, procurement, construction, supervision, commissioning, start-up, and performanceThe plant is scheduled for completion in the third quarter of 2013.

Strategic Development AreasHåvard Devold, ABB Olie og Gass, Esbjerg 31 05 2012


Selected 2015 ABB strategic focus areas

Deepwater / Subsea

Improved Oil Recovery / Digital Oilfield

Unconventional/Difficult ressources

Energy Efficiency / Electrification


SUBSEA: ABB in subsea today

Subsea EquipmentElectrical Systems/Power Modules

Topside systemsFlow AssuranceTopside ControlTopside Electrical Distribution

SURFAC/DC Subsea power cables


ABB investing in Statoil’s subsea visionTopside/shore

Subsea

Today Ongoing FutureToday Future

Platform/floaters based

O&G processing

Power supply

Platform based power generation or power

from shore

Long distance power from shore

ABB investing in subsea electrification & automation solutions to enable future subsea processing

Subsea

+ Subsea O&G processing+ No platforms/floaters+ One cable over many+ Longer distance– Limited distance

Subsea AC

+ Subsea O&G processing– Platforms/floaters needed– Many cables needed– High OPEX, CAPEX– People safety procedures– Environmental impact– Limited step-out distance

+ Subsea O&G processing+ No platforms/floaters+ One cable+ Cheaper cable+ Longest distance+ Common DC: no rectifiers

Topside AC Subsea DC


UNCONVENTIONAL: Shale gas & liquids revolution?Global opportunity, current activity focused in NAM

N. America- Liquids Driven- Modest Level of

Environmental Issues

- High level of Labor cost consideration

- Mature, highly developed service sector

Europe- Gas Driven- Very High Level of

Environmental Issues

- High level of Labor cost consideration

- Early stage development

- Service sector shortage

Asia- Gas Driven- Low to modest Level of Environmental

Issues- Low level of Labor cost consideration- Early stage development- Service sector shortage

S. America- Gas Driven- Modest Level of Environmental Issues- Low level of Labor cost consideration- High Level of Local Content

Requirements- Early stage development- Service sector shortage

Environmental regulation greatest uncertainty to global development of unconventional plays using hydraulic fracturing

Note: Significant basins for unconventional gas (e.g. tight gas) in areas outside pictured report, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia


Shale enabling technologies: Hydraulic fracturing & horizontal drilling

Schematic of processSchematic of process Hydraulic fracturing (~20MW or ~32000 HP)Hydraulic fracturing (~20MW or ~32000 HP)


Shale play – not just gas, but also liquidsLiquids include NGLs and light, sweet crude (API 40 – 60º)

Hydraulic fracturing from Vertical wells for gas in the Barnett Shale

Hydraulic fracturing from Horizontal wells for gas in multiple shale plays

Hydraulic fracturing from Horizontal wells in multiple shale gas & oil plays

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Gas, TCF/D Oil, MBPD

GasOil


Value potential

Increased production (3-5%)

Reduced production losses (20-40%)

Reduced operation and maintenance costs (15-30%)


Visualization and digital asset information navigation

Asset-wide data integration

Collaborative environments

Operations IT security

Operations simulation

Performance Services

Reliability and integrity management

Flow management and optimization (e-Field)

Boosting Equipment (pumps, compressors)

Water systems

Subsea condition monitoring

Subsea well optimization (well control and monitoring)

Gas-lift, WAG re-injection

Downhole sensors

New drilling rigs and well intervention concepts

Inflow modeling

ABB targeted segments in IO / IOR

Reservoir

Digital Oilfield

ABB targeted segmentsABB targeted segments Other segments (non-focus)Other segments (non-focus)

Enterprise IT integration, ERP and common IT support and services (IBM, Accenture, SAP, Infosys)

Video conferencing / AV equipment

Telecommunication / satellite services

Hydrocarbon accounting / Trading

Change management consulting

Logistics and maintenance CMMO

Fiscal Metering

Drilling and well oilfield services

Carbone capture and storage

Subsea fiber communication networks

Trees and Wellheads (production and injection wells, and injection systems)

Seismic and data mining

Reservoir modeling and simulation

Wells & Drilling

Artificial Lift

IOR Special methods

Draft

Production Optimization & Services


Improved Oil Recovery (IOR)Filling in the full picture

Water cut meter

Separation

Produced water treatment

Injection water treatment

Water injection pump

Discharged water monitor

Seabed multiphase pump

ESP, downhole pump

Raw seawater injectionSoftware:

Reservoir drainage and water management

Well Monitoring System

Well Allocation System


Integrated Operations – Digital Oilfield

Company Expert Resource Centers

Supplier SupportCenter

OperationCenter

SecureSatellite / Fibre

Optic / Broad-band Connection

Offshore Operations Control, Safety, Asset

Manager and Optimization

Information Management& IT Security

Operation andCollaboration Centers

Flow Assurance Production Optimization

OperatorAssistance and

Operational Support

Performance Solutions & Services

Asset ManagementCondition Monitoring

Integrated OperationsDigital Oilfield


Primary energy Transport Generation T&DIndustrial processes

Industrial production

Avai

labl

e en

ergy

ABB technology can reduce losses by 20-30%

More efficient fuel combustion

Higher pipeline flows

Improved well efficiency Lower line losses,

higher substation efficiency

Improved productivity

More efficient motors & drives

Drives &motors

ProcessAutomation

Marine & pipelines

Power plantautomation

Gridoperation

Processautomation

ENERGY EFFICIENCY/ELECTRIFICATION:Potential increases in efficiency


Energy Efficiency:Finding the toasters in your process

“The Toaster”Runs continuously 06:00-10:00, 2 kWAir conditioned area, so 3 kW to cool down again50% efficiency => (2+3)/0,5 * 4 h = 40 kWh thermalConventional: Two loafs/2 min each 5 min @1kW gives (1+1,5)*(2/5)/0,5 *4 = 4 kWh thermal

So what are the “toasters” in your process ?PumpsCompressorsProcess Instabilities (all variations drain energy)Heat lossMaintenances issues (wear, friction, scaling…)


Asset management and Energy efficiency

Electrical: Drive power, speed, torque, stallProcess: Flow, Temperature, Pressure, VibrationDiagnostics:

Wheel wear, Scaling, Motor electrical faults, EfficiencyWhy ?

Eliminate in operation failures (3-10 additional uptime days per year)Reduce periodic maintenance costs by 15-30%Extend equipment lifetime by 10-30%

“The worlds of automation and electrification are becoming increasingly entwined due to the substantial potential for energy savings, increased reliability and uptime, and reduced maintenance costs. ABB’s ability to integrate the process control, process electrification, and power distribution and management portions of a plant with System 800xA , leveraging the IEC61850 standard, offers end users significant operational benefits,” said Larry O'Brien, Research Director for Process Industries, ARC. “Typical savings can result in a 20 percent reduction in CAPEX (capital expenditures) and OPEX (operating expenditures).” (ARC 02 nov 2010)


Summing upReliable power and automation technologyfor safe, efficient and sustainable operationsDeepwater / SubseaImproved Oil Recovery / Digital OilfieldUnconventional/Difficult ressourcesEnergy Efficiency / Electrification

Subsurface/wells

Subsea

Topside/process

Håvard Devoid, ABB DK, Esbjerg 31 05 2012 The Energy · PDF fileAt the core: Reliable...

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