Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment...

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Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore Conference 11 September 2019

Transcript of Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment...

Page 1: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore Conference

11 September 2019

Page 2: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

CERTAIN STATEMENTS INCLUDED IN THIS DOCUMENT CONTAIN FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE STATEMENTS CONCERNING PLANS, OBJECTIVES, GOALS, STRATEGIES, FUTURE EVENTS OR PERFORMANCE, AND UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND OTHER STATEMENTS, WHICH ARE OTHER THAN STATEMENTS OF HISTORICAL FACTS. THE WORDS “BELIEVE,” “ANTICIPATE,” “INTENDS,” “ESTIMATE,” “FORECAST,” “PROJECT,” “PLAN,” “POTENTIAL,” “MAY,” “SHOULD,” “EXPECT” “PENDING” AND SIMILAR EXPRESSIONS IDENTIFY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS. THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS IN THIS DOCUMENT ARE BASED UPON VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, MANY OF WHICH ARE BASED, IN TURN, UPON FURTHER ASSUMPTIONS, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION, MANAGEMENT'S EXAMINATION OF HISTORICAL OPERATING TRENDS, DATA CONTAINED IN HUNTER GROUP’S RECORDS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE FROM THIRD PARTIES. ALTHOUGH HUNTER GROUP BELIEVES THAT THESE ASSUMPTIONS WERE REASONABLE WHEN MADE, BECAUSE THESE ASSUMPTIONS ARE INHERENTLY SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AND CONTINGENCIES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT AND ARE BEYOND HUNTER GROUP’S CONTROL, YOU CANNOT BE ASSURED THAT HUNTER GROUP WILL ACHIEVE OR ACCOMPLISH THESE EXPECTATIONS, BELIEFS OR PROJECTIONS. THE INFORMATION SET FORTH HEREIN SPEAKS ONLY AS OF THE DATES SPECIFIED AND HUNTER GROUP UNDERTAKES NO DUTY TO UPDATE ANY FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT TO CONFORM THE STATEMENT TO ACTUAL RESULTS OR CHANGES IN EXPECTATIONS OR CIRCUMSTANCES. IMPORTANT FACTORS THAT, IN HUNTER GROUP’S VIEW, COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FROM THOSE DISCUSSED IN THE FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS INCLUDE, WITHOUT LIMITATION: THE STRENGTH OF WORLD ECONOMIES AND CURRENCIES, GENERAL MARKET CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FLUCTUATIONS IN CHARTERHIRE RATES AND VESSEL VALUES, CHANGES IN DEMAND IN THE TANKER MARKET, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO CHANGES IN OPEC'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION LEVELS AND WORLD WIDE OIL CONSUMPTION AND STORAGE, CHANGES IN HUNTER GROUP’S OPERATING EXPENSES, INCLUDING BUNKER PRICES, DRYDOCKING AND INSURANCE COSTS, THE MARKET FOR HUNTER GROUP’S VESSELS, AVAILABILITY OF FINANCING AND REFINANCING, ABILITY TO COMPLY WITH COVENANTS IN SUCH FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FAILURE OF COUNTERPARTIES TO FULLY PERFORM THEIR CONTRACTS WITH US, CHANGES IN GOVERNMENTAL RULES AND REGULATIONS OR ACTIONS TAKEN BY REGULATORY AUTHORITIES, POTENTIAL LIABILITY FROM PENDING OR FUTURE LITIGATION, GENERAL DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POTENTIAL DISRUPTION OF SHIPPING ROUTES DUE TO ACCIDENTS OR POLITICAL EVENTS, VESSEL BREAKDOWNS, INSTANCES OF OFF-HIRE AND OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS.

THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, OR A SOLICITATION OF AN OFFER TO PURCHASE OR SELL, ANY SECURITIES OR ASOLICITATION OF ANY VOTE OR APPROVAL.

Forward Looking Statements

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Page 3: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Shareholder friendly scrubber-fitted VLCC pure play

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7x ECO scrubber-fitted VLCCs for delivery in 2019-20

Cost leading and fully transparent corporate structure

• World’s only listed scrubber-fitted newbuild VLCC pure play

• Orders placed at historically low levels

• Scrubbers delivered by Wärtsilä, with robust warranties in place

Opportunistic shareholder friendly strategy

• Dynamic and opportunistic investment strategy

• Open to outright asset sales, M&A, ship for shares long-term time charters, etc.

• Shareholder distributions a top priority

• Industry leading G&A

• No hidden fees, poison pills, related party conflicts, etc.

• Fully aligned incentive structure

• Norwegian shipping taxation

Page 4: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Hunter Group ASA – A publicly traded investment company

Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019)

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Investor Shares (m) Ownership

1 APOLLO ASSET LIMITED 168 29.1%

2 SUNDT AS 41 7.1%

3 SONGA TRADING INC 29 5.0%

4 SONGA AS 20 3.5%

5 SWAP INVEST AS 16 2.7%

6 BNP Paribas Securities Services 14 2.5%

7 TITAN OPPORTUNITIES FUND IC SICAV 14 2.4%

8 VERDIPAPIRFONDET DNB SMB 12 2.1%

9 FONDSFINANS NORGE 12 2.0%

10 State Street Bank and Trust Comp 11 2.0%

Sum top 10 335 58.3%

Total 575 100.0%

• Originally ordered 8x ECO scrubber-fitted VLCC newbuilds from DSME, for an avg. all-in price of USD ~86m

• Signed an MoA for the sale of H.No 5457 in June 2019 for USD 98m

− Closing at delivery end October

• Commercial management by Tankers International, through creation of the worlds largest scrubber-fitted VLCC pool

• Technical management by OSM

Apollo Asset Ltd. Other shareholders

~29% ~71%

Indicator AS*

100%

Hunter Group ASA

Oslo Axess ("HUNT")

100%

7x VLCC newbuilding orders with delivery between 3Q19- 3Q20

Hunter Tankers AS

*Limited activities

Future

opportunities?

Page 5: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

197

102 120

86 77

106

-

50

100

150

200

250

Paid in as of11 Sep 2019

Rem. Q3 19 Q4 19 Q1 20 Q2 20 Q3 20

USDm

Scrubber-fitted VLCC pure play with near-term deliveries

Delivery schedule

• Avg all-in yard cost per vessel of USD ~86m, including Wärtsilä scrubbers

• Newbuild scrubber vs. retrofit ensuring lower capex and warranty benefits

• Paid in yard instalments and Q4 ’19 capex including H.No 5457, which has been sold for USD 98m but awaiting transaction close in October ‘19

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Q3 ‘19 Q2 ‘20Q4 ‘19 Q1 ‘20 Q3 ‘20

H.No 5457

H.No 5465

H.No 5466

Hunter Saga

Hunter Atla

H.No 5467

H.No 5470

Hunter Laga

Sep ‘19

Sep ‘19

Oct ‘19

Oct ‘19

Mar ‘20

May ‘20

Jul ‘20

Jul ‘20

Sold @ $98m

Capital expenditure program (Incl. H.No 5457)

Page 6: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Assumptions: Laden Ballast 50/50

Eco 48 ton 32 ton 40 ton

Eco with scrubber 50 ton 34 ton 42 ton

“Kidan” - 2010 non-Eco 77 ton 59 ton 68 ton

Fuel prices HSFO: $215/ton* MGO: $545/ton* Spread: $330/ton

• First class financing offer from the four largest Nordic banks secured, however sale-and-leaseback more appropriate for Hunter Group

- Vessels: Initial 3x

- Amount: USD 180m

- Tenor: 5 years

- Bareboat rate first 6 months: USD 11,500/d

- Flexible repurchase optionality for all vessels

• Cash breakeven first 6 months of USD 18,900 per day, excluding ECO and scrubber savings

• Indicative daily savings of USD 28,000 compared to 2010 built non-eco VLCC

• Higher LTV (70%) and flexible structure eliminating need for additional equity

• Lower all-in cost of capital in first 9-12 months

• Potential for dividends from Q1 2020

Capital structure in line with opportunistic strategy

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7,000

18,900

-7,640

400

11,50015,260

12,770

(10,000)

(5,000)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000USD/day

Hunter Atla: Illustrative cash breakeven first 6 months

Savings vs. 2010 built VLCC w/o scrubber

Source: Company, Fearnleys*Current January 2020 HSFO and MGO forward prices

Financing strategy

Page 7: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Seaborne US crude to supply Asia driven demand growth

2017-25 oil consumption growth2017-25 oil production growth

(3)

(1)

1

3

5

7

9

AsiaPacific

Europe Africa S. & Cent.America

MiddleEast

CIS NorthAmerica

Mbpd

(3)

(1)

1

3

5

7

9

AsiaPacific

Africa MiddleEast

S. & Cent.America

CIS NorthAmerica

Europe

Mbpd

Source: BP, Company 7

Page 8: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

-1.4

0.2 0.0

2019 2020 2021

0.3 0.5 0.5 0.91.9

2.9

4.25.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

US export growth next ~3 years to require ~170 VLCCs

US/MEG oil export growth and VLCCs required

Source: Company, DNB, FearnleysAssumptions: Speed: 12 knots, R. trip USGoM – FE: 110 days, R. trip MEG – FE: 40 days, VLCC capacity 2 million barrels

~170 VLs needed ‘19-’21 (~55 VLs per +1mbpd)

~25 less VLs needed ’19-’21 (~20 VLs per +1mbpd)

1.0

1.3

0.8

2019 2020 2021

YOY growth US oil exports

YOY growth MEG oil exports

US oil exports

~165%

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Page 9: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

-28 -26-34 -28

-9 -13 -6-16 -18

-7 -10

-31

3827

36 36 29 3119

2839

53 58 6549

3123 21

47 5039 45

27

45

11

-33

-61

-84

(100)

(80)

(60)

(40)

(20)

-

20

40

60

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

# VLCCs

Scrapped Delivered Orderbook 20yrs or older

VLCC supply growth will slow from H2 ‘19

Source: Company, Clarksons, Fearnleys 9

Page 10: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

74

14

(20)

(45)

15

10

20

15

40 (50)

(25)

(50)

(30)

(10)

10

30

50

70

Est. fleetgrowth

Oilproduction

growth

OPECreversal H2

'19?

Iranstorage

Scrubberretrofiteffect

Net supply'19

Est. fleetgrowth

Oilproduction

growth

OPECreversal

IMO 2020addtl.

Demand

HFOfloatingstorage

Net supply'19-20

VLCC equivalents

Market balance will tighten in H2 2019 and 2020

Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys, CompanyNote: 2019 assumed 1 mb/d from second half. Scrubber impact from 30-45 days from offhire days. 2020: 1 mb/d additional OPEC, 2 mb/ of additional crude runs whereof 50% shipped. Assumed 1 mb/d of HFO storage

2019-20 crude tanker balance, adj. for scrapping (VLCC equivalents)

2019 2020

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Page 11: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Current market - Clarksons Tanker FFA Report

Source: Clarksons 11

Page 12: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

The MGO vs. HSFO spread starting to widen

Source: Bloomberg

ICE Gasoil vs. 3.5% Rotterdam fuel oil – December 2019 delivery

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Page 13: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

12,460 15,260 18,060 20,86021,23028,030

34,83041,630

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

230215445

330215545

430215645

530215745

USD/dayECO vs. 2010 built ECO w. scrubber vs. 2010 built

Significant savings potential vs. 2010 built non-eco VLCC

Source: Company, Fearnleys

Assumptions: Laden consumption Ballast consumption 50/50

Eco 48 ton 32 ton 40 ton

Eco with scrubber 50 ton 34 ton 42 ton

“Kidan” - 2010 Korean non-Eco 77 ton 59 ton 68 ton

Spread:

MGO (USD/t):

HSFO (USD/t):

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Page 14: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

-

50

100

150

200

250

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

USDm

VLCC prices were at an “all time low”

Why?

High fleet growth, OPEC production cuts, OECD inventory drawdowns

Source: Clarkson, Company

$82.8m

Historical VLCC newbuilding prices adjusted for US CPI (Excl. scrubber)

15%25%

63%

Current~$95m

10yr avg~$103m

40yr avg~$135m

Asset value upside

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Page 15: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

• If the total global shipping fleet ran on scrubbers and consumed 300 million tonnes HSFO p.a., it would take 150 years for the oceans’ Sulphur content to increase from 2,700ppm to 2,701ppm

• If all the sulphur in the world’s oceans were to be removed, it would form a layer around the earth about 1.7 meters thick. All the sulphur in all the world’s known oil reserves would add only one sheet of paper to this layer

• Lower environmental footprint with exhaust cleaning via scrubbers vs. on site at refineries

• No reason why scrubbers should no be a long-term solution, and co-exist with future LNG propelled tankers

Scrubbers have been misunderstood

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Page 16: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Q&A

Page 17: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Appendix

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Page 18: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

0.3 0.5 0.5 0.91.9

2.94.2

5.00.6

1.00.3

2.9

3.3

2.5

4.2

7.2

7.8

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mbpd

Crude oil exports Addtl. existing export capacity Addtl. capacity from proposed pipelines

US export capacity could reach ~8mbpd by 2021 (IEA)

Source: DNB, IEA, Kepler Cheuvreux

~215%

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Page 19: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Going forward, the marginal barrel is 2-3x farther away…

5,055 6,500

15,000

Global 10yr avg. ladendistance

MEG - Far East US - Far East

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

Nautical miles

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Page 20: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

(0.5)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Mbpd Latin America Europe Africa FSU North America Asia Middle East

Asia adding ~1.9mbpd refinery capacity 2019-20

Refinery capacity additions

Source: DNB, McKinsey 20

Page 21: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Near term demand boost from IMO 2020 preparations

3.5

0.9

0.15

1.1

1.7

3.8

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2016 2020

Mbpd

HSFO LSFO/Blends MGO

…expected to increase refinery runs (IEA)IMO adding to strong diesel demand…

Source: IEA, DNV GL, Fearnleys

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mbpd

5yr avg 2017 2018 2019

21

Page 22: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

99.8

104.4

0.6

1.6

1.3

1.1

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

2018 supply 2019 growth 2020 growth 2021 growth 2022 growth 2022 supply

Mbpd

~15 VLCCequivalents

~40 VLCCequivalents

~30 VLCCequivalents

~30 VLCCequivalents

Oil production growth next 3-4 years to require ~115 VLCCs

2019-22 incremental world oil supply

Source: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys

Assumptions:

% seaborne trade: ~65%

Avg VL roundtrips p.a.: ~5x

VL capacity: ~2mbls

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Page 23: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

9.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% of delivered fleet

VLCC orderbook as % of fleet at historic low

Share of fleet 15yrs or older

Share of fleet 20yrs or older

Source: Company, Clarksons, Fearnleys*Assuming SPS @ ~$1.5m, BWTS @ ~1.5m, scrubber @ ~$5m

Owners of older tonnage facing costs of up to USD ~8m*

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Page 24: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

1418

10

32

24

84 4

12

3

16

2 3 3 -

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

De

c-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

Mar

-20

Ap

r-2

0

May

-20

Jun

-20

# VLCC for scrubber installation

Completed 2019 Remaining 2019 Scheduled 2020Illustrative supply impact:

• Remaining 2019 scrubber installations:− 74x VLCCs

• Scrubber installation off-hire− 30-45 days

• Total reduction fleet days:− 2,220 – 3,330

• Current VLCC fleet: − 785x

• Remaining days 2019: − 111

• Total remaining fleet days 2019− 87,135

• Fleet reduction from scrubber installations:

− 2.5% - 3.8%

74 VLCCs scheduled for scrubber installation remaining ‘19

74x

22x

39x

Source: Company, DNB, Clarksons

VLCC scrubber installation schedule

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Page 25: Hunter Group ASA - Pareto Oil & Offshore ConferenceHunter Group ASA –A publicly traded investment company Company overview Top 10 shareholders (as of 27 August 2019) 4 r ) p 1 D

Hunter Group ASA

Org. nr. 985 955 107

Dronningen 1

0287 Oslo, Norway

+47 975 31 227

[email protected]