Human and Environmental threats in Developing Countries: Does Iceland

have a role?

Professor Ruth HaugDepartment of International Environment

and Development Studies (Noragric)Norwegian University of Life Sciences

International Environment and Development Studies (EADI, 2006)

Development Studies is a multi- and interdisciplinary field of studies (not a discipline) that seeks to understand social, economic, political, environmental, technological and cultural aspects of societal change, particularly in development countries

Environmental threats

Climate change Shortage of energy Water scarcity Biodiversity losses Pollution Land degradation – land shortage Deforestation

UN’s PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2006): Average temperature of the earth’s surface, have already risen by 0.74 degrees C in the last 100 years, and is expected to increase by an average of about 3 degrees over the next century, assuming greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at current rates.

Emission (Calvin, 2007) Agriculture: 14% and Land use: 18% Transport 14% Industry 14% Power: 24% (coal, gas, oil; non-industrial electricity)

Human threats

Hunger and Poverty Conflicts and lack of security Human rights violation Bad governance Lack of democracy Globalization and market forces Urbanization

The bottom billion: Why the poorest countries

are failing and what can be done about it (Collier,

2007)

World poverty 1 billion poor ($ 1) 2,7 billion ($ 2)

The four poverty traps: The conflict trap The natural resource trap Landlocked with bad neighbors Bad governance in a small country

Agriculture for Development: WDR08

For the poorest, GDP growth in agriculture is 4 times as effective as other growth in reducing poverty

Global food supplies under pressure Environment under pressure:

sustainable agriculture needed Too little public spending Under recognized potential of women Rich countries need to reform policies

that harm the poor

Who is affected by hunger and poverty?

Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force 2005Source: UN Millennium Project, Hunger Task Force 2005

Land less, rural 20%

Urban poor20%

Small Farmers50%

Fishers, herders 10%

Malnourished people (UN hunger task

force, 2005)

Sub Sahara Africa 204 India 221 Asia and Pacific 156 China 142 WANA 39

Food insecurity causes

Poverty problem: 50% peasant farmers, 20% landless, 20% urban, 10% fishers/herders

Household level: lack of access to production assets, markets and employment, drought/flooding, HIV/AIDS, voiclessnes, women’s low status, vulnerability,

National/international level: bad governance, institutional failure, policy failure, conflict, lack of social security, lack or wrong international response, increased dependency

Three roles for agriculture in response to climate change (von Braun, 2007)

10-25% production reduction in developing countries due to global warming by 2080 (Cline, 2007)

1. as a polluter > change production and technology

2. in mitigation > invest in GHG capture3. in adaptation > adjust production,

technology, trade, consumption

Adapting agricultural systems to climate change (CGIAR webpage 2007)

Climate resilient crops and animal breeds Crop varieties with great tolerance to

stresses (drought, flooding) Improved management of water Collective action to protect shared

resources Able institutions Supportive policies Market incentives

Brasil: A biofuel success or not? (Simoes, 2007)

Viable biofuel industry – major exporter of biofuels

Ethanol from sugarcane (10% of arable land)

Both biofuel and food production have increased

1 mill new jobs Deforestation has decreased (2004-06) Sustainability certification (planned) Biofuel: More democratic world energy

market (more diverse energy producers)??

In sum, biofuel expansion will (von Braun)

Accelerate globalization of agriculture Increase crop prices Raise land values, thereby draw capital

into rural areas Create some jobsRisks for the poor:

1. food price increase and instability 2. ill-considered policies

Conflict, Peace and Development

World violent conflicts have decreased from 50 to 30 during the last 15-20 years (Norad, 2007)

Poverty does not necessarily lead to conflict, but poverty increases in conflict situation

Peace making, peace keeping and peace building

Agriculture/fish/wildlife is often of crucial importance in conflict/post conflict countries, often the only livelihood option (Haug, 2008)

The international community tends to focus on providing relief, not on long-term development - Undermines local capacity & production, pacifies people & institutions (Haug, 2008)

Higher Education & Development

Generates knowledge and skills crucial for production and economic growth

Provides human capital for social services and development

Contributes towards capacity development

Plays a role in nation building (critical voice)

Produces graduates who pay taxes or send remittances

Higher education challenges in Developing Countries

Declining quality (expansion) Inadequate funding Inequitable access Going North syndrome Brain drain – brain gain – brain circulation Macro economic demands (IMF) Supply driven aid (managed by North) Commodification of HE

Gender Equity

Almost 2/3 of the bottom billion are women (Norad, 2007)

No improvements in women’s relative income during the last 10-15 years (Gender Equity Index, 2007)

Mother’s status and education – most important for children’s nutrition (IFPRI, 2005)

How to achieve Millennium Development Goal 3 on gender equity?

What role could Iceland play?

Role model for small countries (re UNDP: best country to live in Human Development Index 2008)

From Fish, Horses & Tourists to success in financial affairs (Banking)

Climate change: Alternative Energy (re Geothermal Energy)

Human rights, Equity and Gender Peace and Security Higher Education (8 universities)

Human resources development