Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland...

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Howard Weil 41 st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA

Transcript of Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland...

Page 1: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference

Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA

Page 2: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Cautionary Statement

This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are intended to be covered by the safe harbors created thereby. Words and phrases such as “is anticipated,” “is estimated,” “is expected,” “is planned,” “is scheduled,” “is targeted,” “believes,” “intends,” “objectives,” “projects,” “strategies” and similar expressions are used to identify such forward-looking statements. However, the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. Forward-looking statements relating to Phillips 66’s operations (including joint venture operations) are based on management’s expectations, estimates and projections about the company, its interests and the energy industry in general on the date this presentation was prepared. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements include fluctuations in crude oil, NGL, and natural gas prices, refining and marketing margins and margins for our chemicals business; unexpected changes in costs for constructing, modifying or operating our facilities; unexpected difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products; lack of, or disruptions in, adequate and reliable transportation for our crude oil, natural gas, NGL, and refined products; potential liability for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations, under environmental regulations; potential liability resulting from litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting Phillips 66’s businesses generally as set forth in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Phillips 66 is under no obligation (and expressly disclaims any such obligation) to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

The information contained in this presentation regarding the formation of an MLP does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, any securities. This information is being issued pursuant to, and in accordance with, Rule 135 under the Securities Act of 1933.

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Page 3: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Enhanced operating excellence Achieved solid financial results Captured opportunities Created shareholder value

Delivering on Commitments

3

7 %

14 %

22 %

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2010 2011 2012

Adjusted Earnings and ROCE($B)

Midstream

Chemicals

R&M

Corporate

ROCE

Page 4: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

0.4 0.4

1.8

0.3 0.4

1.1

0.3 0.4

1.2

0.2 0.3

0.9

Total Recordable Rates

Phillips 66 CPChem DCP

At Phillips 66 we take the time to work safely, every

job, every day.

Operating Excellence - Safety

Incidents per 200,000 Hours Worked

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Industry Average

4

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 5: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Macro Environment - U.S. Midstream

5

$100-$130 B of infrastructure capital required during this

decade

Products

$10 - 20 B

Crude

$10 – 25 B

Natural Gas and NGL

$80 – 85 B

0

8

16

24

32

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Actual

MM

Bb

ls/d

ay

Natural Gas Forecast

2 % CAGR

6 % CAGR

6 % CAGR

Crude Oil

NGL

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 6: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Macro Environment - Chemicals

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■ Global demand for chemicals growing at 1.0-1.5x GDP

■ Sustained feedstock advantage in Middle East and U.S.

2013 Ethylene Production Cost Curve ($/ton)

U.S. Average

U.S. Ethane

ME Ethane

West Europe

NE Asia SE Asia

0

500

1,000

1,500

0 40 80 120 160

Cumulative Ethylene Capacity (MM tons)

Source: IHS

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

2012 2017 2022

Supply Range

Petchem Demand

Ethane Exports

U.S. Ethane Supply/ Demand Balance (MBD)

See appendix for footnotes.

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■ U.S. expected to maintain structural advantage

■ Exports support strong refinery utilization

Macro Environment - Refining

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U.S. Refined Product Exports (MMBD)

93.0%

82.9%

88.7%

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

2000 2005 2010

Utilization

Ne

t Imp

orts

Ne

t Expo

rts

Utilization

N.A. Crude Production (MMBD)

0

5

10

15

2007 2012 2017 2022

Other US ANS GOM

Canadian Shale

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 8: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Operating Excellence

Growth

Returns

Distributions

High-performing organization

Phillips 66 Strategy

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Providing energy, improving lives

Page 9: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Midstream: Build on existing base

■ Grow Transportation and NGL Operations

■ Pursue organic growth through DCP

■ Leverage MLPs to support and fund growth

Chemicals: Grow capacity and earnings

■ Pursue organic growth through CPChem

■ Execute mega-projects

Marketing & Specialties: Selective growth

■ Grow lubricants and European marketing

■ Ensure refinery pull-through

Refining: Enhance returns

■ Process advantaged crudes

■ Increase export capability

■ Optimize portfolio

Segment Strategy

9 Restricted Confidential – Business Information

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0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2010 2011 2012 2013E

Midstream - Large Platform for Growth

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Capital Program ($B)

NGL Operations

DCP Midstream

Transportation

Capital program includes equity share of DCP Midstream capital. See appendix for additional footnotes.

NGL Operations

Transportation

DCP Midstream

Fractionator

Storage

Gas Plant

Pipeline

Page 11: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

DCP Midstream - Growth

11

2013 2014 2015+

Gathering and processing in execution $2 B

Gathering and processing expansions $2 B

Pipelines and logistics $2 B

Executing ~$6 B in growth projects from 2013 – 2015

G&P Plant

New Plant

Expansion/Restart

DCP Legacy

New/Growth

Page 12: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Transportation and NGL Operations - Adding Capacity

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2000 additional crude rail cars

Jones Act ships

Bakken crude to Bayway via Global Partners

Export facilities

Sand Hills/Southern Hills NGL pipelines

Gulf Coast fractionator

Page 13: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Crude Volume (MBD)

Partner Destination Delivery Method

Bakken 35-40 Enbridge EC, WC, GC Rail

Canadian 30 Targa WC Rail to barge

Mississippi Lime

20 Magellan Ponca Pipeline

Mississippi Lime

40 Ponca Pipeline

Transportation - New Growth

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Moving more advantaged crude than we consume

Page 14: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

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Chemicals - Focused Portfolio

S-Chem (SCP and JCP)

Saudi Polymers

Q-Chem and Q-Chem II

Page 15: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

2.0

3.6

7.7

2004 2008 2012

Other

Benzene

Styrene

Paraxylene

Cyclohexane

Alpha Olefins

Polypropylene

Polyethylene

Propylene

Ethylene

24.5 25.7

31.5

2012 2014 2017

Chemicals - Growth

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CPChem Equity U.S. Production Capacity (Blb/y)

CPChem Equity M.E. Production Capacity (Blb/y)

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Chemicals - Growth

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0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

2010 2011 2012 2013E

Capital Program ($B)

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

1-Hexene 250 kMTA

USGC Petrochemicals 1,500 kMTA

NAO Expansion ~130 kMTA

SPCo Petrochemicals (35% ownership) 1,200 kMTA

Sweeny Frac Expansion 22 MBD

Capital program denotes equity share of CPChem capital. See appendix for additional footnotes.

Page 17: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Refining - Diversified Portfolio

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MI

Germany

HU WG

Ireland

United Kingdom

ME

Malaysia

Western / Pacific 440 MBD Central Region 475 MBD Gulf Coast 733 MBD Atlantic Basin / Europe 588 MBD

LA

SF

FD

BI

BG PC

BW

AL SW

United States

WR

LC

Page 18: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Refining - Enhancing Returns

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■ Extensive U.S. refining portfolio

■ Infrastructure and commercial capabilities

■ Shifting to 100% advantaged crude

Phillips 66 U.S. Advantaged Crude (MBD)

Current 3+ Years

LLS/ANS

Brent

Heavy

Canadian

WTI/WTS

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 19: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

■ Peer-leading distillate yield

East

Gulf

West

285

400

Current 3+ Years

Refining - Enhancing Returns

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Phillips 66 Export Infrastructure (MBD)

■ Capability to export 30% of coastal production

■ Product placement to maximize margins

39.5% 39.9% 40.2%

40.8%

35.8%

37.1% 37.4%

2010 2011 2012 2013E

Distillate Yield (Percentage of processed inputs)

Industry

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 20: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

$500

Adv Crude Yields & Exports

Costs 3+ Years

Refining - Enhancing Returns

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Mid-cycle Refining ROCE of 15+%

Constant Margin Net Income Improvement

($MM)

0.0

1.0

2.0

2010 2011 2012 2013E

Refining Refining Logistics WRB

Capital Program ($B)

Capital program includes equity share of WRB capital. See appendix for additional footnotes.

Page 21: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Marketing & Specialties

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>20% 10 - 20% 5 – 10%

Branded Market Share

0.1 - 5% 0%

0.0

0.1

0.2

2010 2011 2012 2013E

Capital Program ($B)

Lubricants

CPreme Graphite CSPI – Flow Improvers

Power Generation Refinery Locations

Manufacturing Locations:

See appendix for footnotes.

Page 22: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Disciplined capital allocation

Growing shareholder distributions

Enhanced financial flexibility

Financial Strategy

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Page 23: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Capital Allocation

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Sustaining capital

Increasing distributions

Growth capital

Financial flexibility

2013E cash from operations based on First Call consensus 3/5/2013. See appendix for additional footnotes.

5.3

1.0

0.8

0.8

1.0

Cash from Operations

Uses

Share Repurchases

Debt Repayment

Growth Capital

Dividends

Sustaining Capital

2013E Sources and Uses of Cash ($B)

Page 24: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Regular dividends

Secure

Growing

Competitive

Share repurchase

Discretionary

Tax efficient

Shareholder Distributions

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Phillips 66 Debut

Announced 1st quarterly dividend of $0.20

Announced $1.0 B share repurchase plan

Expanded share repurchase plan by $1 B and announced dividend increase to $1.25/year

Announced quarterly dividend increase of 25%

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec May

Page 25: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

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Capital Structure

Equity, debt, and debt-to-capital ratio estimates based on First Call consensus as of 3/5/2013. See appendix for additional footnotes.

21

24

2012 2013E

Equity ($B)

7

6

2012 2013E

Debt ($B)

25

20

2012 2013E

Debt-to-Capital Ratio (%)

Page 26: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

A Promising Future

26

Operating excellence

Growth

Returns

Distributions

High-performing organization

Page 27: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Appendix

Institutional Investors Contact: Rosy C. Zuklic [email protected] Manager, Investor Relations 832-765-2297

Page 28: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Footnotes

All Slides 2012 information is full year unless otherwise noted.

Slide 4

Injury statistics do not include major projects.

Industry Averages are from: Phillips 66 –American Fuels and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) refining data, CPChem – American Chemistry Council (ACC), DCP – Gas Processors Association (GPA)

Slide 5

Historical data from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) dry gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids field production.

Forecast from internal Phillips 66 analysis. CAGR based on 2012 to 2020 growth.

Source of infrastructure capital information: Internal Phillips 66 analysis.

Slide 6

Source for supply/demand: Internal P66 Analysis

Source for U.S. Expansions: Hodson Report October 2012 and P66 internal data

Source for ethylene production cost curve: HIS

Slide 7

Source for U.S. Crude production: Phillips 66 internal analysis.

Source for U.S. Refined Products Exports: U.S. Department of Energy

Slide 10

DCP Midstream capital program includes equity share of DCP Midstream capital.

2012 Transportation includes acquisition costs for one-third interest of Sand Hills and Southern Hills Pipelines totaling approx $0.5 B. This amount was also included in DCP Midstream's capital spending, primarily in 2012

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Page 29: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Footnotes, cont’d

Slide 16

Project capacities are gross capacity.

SPCo Petrochemicals and USGC Petrochemicals projects include ethylene capacity only. Capacity shown does not include derivatives production.

Chemicals capital program denotes equity share of CPChem capital.

Slide 18

U.S. advantaged crude percentages are on an equity basis. Light and medium Canadian crude are in the WTI/WTS category.

Slide 19

Industry yield data from EIA. Distillate yield calculations exclude Trainer and Wilhelmshaven refineries.

Slide 20

Refining capital program includes equity share of WRB capital as well as non-cash capital leases.

Slide 21

Marketing & Specialties capital program excludes $23 MM of capital expenditures related to Downstream Technology and includes non-cash capital leases.

Slide 23

2013E cash from operations based on First Call consensus 3/5/2013.

Dividends based on current dividend of $1.25/share.

Slide 25

Equity, debt, and debt-to-capital ratio estimates based on First Call consensus as of 3/5/2013, $2 B share repurchase program, and a $1.25 per share annual dividend.

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Page 30: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

Phillips 66 Reporting Segments

30

2012

R&M (includes transportation)

Refining

Marketing, Specialties & Other

Chemicals (CPChem)

Midstream

DCP Midstream

Other Midstream

Corporate

Beginning Q1 2013

Refining

Marketing & Specialties

Chemicals (CPChem)

Midstream

DCP Midstream

NGL Operations

Transportation

Corporate

■ Increased disclosure

■ Better alignment with operations

Page 31: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

2013 Guidance

2013 $ B

Corporate Segment Net Expense (after-tax) 0.5

Turnaround Costs (pre-tax) 0.4

Depreciation and Amortization Expense (pre-tax) 1.0

Cash Capital Expenditures 1.8

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Page 32: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

2013 Sensitivities

Worldwide R&M (assuming 95% refining utilization rate) Net Income

$MM

$1/BBL Increase in Refining Margin 440

$1/BBL Increase in Crude Price Impact on Secondary Products (20)

Impacts due to Actual Crude Feedstock Differing from Feedstock Assumed in Market

Indicators:

$1/BBL Widening LLS / Maya Differential (LLS less Maya) 50

$1/BBL Widening WTI / WCS Differential (WTI less WCS) 45

$1/BBL Widening LLS / Brent Differential (LLS less Brent)* (25)

$1/BBL Widening LLS / WTI Differential (LLS less WTI) 25

$1/BBL Widening WTI / WTS Differential (WTI less WTS) 20

10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price (7)

Midstream

1¢/Gal Increase in NGL price 4

10¢/MMBtu Increase in Natural Gas price 2

$1/BBL Increase in WTI price 2

Chemicals

1¢/Lb Increase in Olefins Chain Margin (Ethylene, Polyethylene, NAO) 35

Corporate and Other

1% Increase in Interest Rate (6)

32 Sensitivities shown above are only valid within a limited price range. *Assumes LLS is less expensive than Brent.

Page 33: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

33 References to earnings refer to net income attributable to Phillips 66.

Reconciliation of Earnings to Adjusted Earnings

Millions of Dollars

2012 2011 2010

Consolidated

Earnings (loss) 4,124$ 4,775$ 735$

Adjustments:

Net (gain) loss on asset sales (106) (1,545) (116)

Impairments 979 318 1,118

Pending claims and settlements 34 - (35)

Cancelled projects - 28 29

Severance accruals - 15 28

Premium on early debt retirement 89 - -

Repositioning costs 55 - -

Repositioning tax impacts 177 - -

Hurricane-related costs 35 - -

Adjusted earnings 5,387$ 3,591$ 1,759$

PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations

Page 34: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

34 References to earnings refer to net income attributable to Phillips 66.

Reconciliation of Earnings to Adjusted Earnings

Millions of Dollars

2012 2011 2010

R&M

Earnings (loss) 3,729$ 3,848$ 146$

Adjustments:

Net (gain) loss on asset sales (106) (1,545) (116)

Impairments 633 318 1,118

Pending claims and settlements 57 - (35)

Cancelled projects - 28 29

Severance accruals - 15 28

Repositioning tax impacts 136 - -

Hurricane-related costs 35 - -

Adjusted earnings 4,484$ 2,664$ 1,170$

Midstream

Earnings (loss) 6$ 403$ 262$

Adjustments:

Impairments 303 - -

Pending claims and settlements (23) - -

Adjusted earnings 286$ 403$ 262$

Reconciliation of Earnings to Adjusted Earnings

Millions of Dollars

2012 2011 2010

Chemicals

Earnings (loss) 823$ 716$ 486$

Adjustments:

Impairments 27 - -

Premium on early debt retirement 89 - -

Repositioning tax impacts 41 - -

Adjusted earnings 980$ 716$ 486$

Corporate and Other

Earnings (loss) (434)$ (192)$ (159)$

Adjustments:

Impairments 16

Repositioning costs 55 - -

Adjusted earnings (363)$ (192)$ (159)$

PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations

Page 35: Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference · Howard Weil 41st Annual Energy Conference Greg Garland Chief Executive Officer March 18, 2013 New Orleans, LA . Cautionary Statement This

35 * Total equity plus total debt

Phillips 66 - ROCE

2010 2011 2012

Numerator ($MM)

Net income 740 4,780 4,131

After-tax interest expense 1 11 160

GAAP ROCE earnings 741 4,791 4,291

Special Items 1,024 (1,184) 1,263

Adjusted ROCE earnings 1,765 3,607 5,554

Denominator ($MM)

GAAP average capital employed* 26,906 25,064 25,732

Annualized Adjusted ROCE 7% 14% 22%

Annualized GAAP ROCE 3% 19% 17%

PSX Non GAAP Reconciliations