How to Find Winning Stocks in 2015
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Transcript of How to Find Winning Stocks in 2015
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How to Find Winning Stocks in 2015:
What Two Pros Look at Before They Make a Move
Marc Chaikin, CEO John Schlitz, Chief Market Analyst
January 22, 2015
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
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2 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Meet Marc Chaikin and John Schlitz
• Market Technician
• Quan7ta7ve Analyst • Entrepreneur
• Market Analyst
• Technical Trends • Stock Selec7on
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3 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
How Chaikin Analy7cs Boosts Your Results
• Know the Fundamentals without being a Research Analyst
• Know the Technicals without being a Market Technician • Profit from a proven quan5ta5ve model without doing the math
• Pinpoint profitable entries with Chaikin Buy/Sell signals
Zeroes in on Winning Stocks and Makes You the “Smart Money”
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Problem: Informa7on Overload
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Time – Your Most Precious Commodity
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6 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
The Solu7on: A Disciplined Methodology
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The Chaikin Method
Chaikin Buy/Sell Signals
Chaikin Technical Indicators Vola7lity Bands, Money Flow, Overbought/Oversold, Rela7ve Strength
Chaikin Power Gauge ETF Strength
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Chaikin Power Gauge -‐ Reliable Simple but Powerful
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Chaikin Power Gauge Ra7ng Clear summary of a stock’s poten7al -‐ with a record of success
© 2014 Chaikin Analy7cs All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confiden7al.
Technicals • Price Trend • Price Trend Rate of Change • Chaikin Money Flow • Rela7ve Strength vs. Market • Volume Trend
Experts • Earnings Es7mate Trend • Short Interest • Insider Ac7vity • Analyst Ra7ngs • Industry Rela7ve Strength
Financials • LT Debt to Equity Ra7o • Price to Book Value • Return on Equity • Price to Sales Ra7o • Free Cash Flow
Earnings • Earnings Growth • Earnings Surprise • Earnings Trend • Projected P/E Ra7o • Earnings Consistency
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• Power Gauge Rating Bullish
• Relative Performance Strong
• Chaikin Money Flow Strong
• Buy Signal in Chaikin Analytics
What to Buy: Marc’s Checklist
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Market agrees with the Model Market agrees with the Model Market agrees with the Model Market agrees with the Model
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Market agrees with the Model
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• Power Gauge Rating Bearish
• Relative Performance Weak
• Chaikin Money Flow Weak
• Sell Signal in Chaikin Analytics
What to Sell: Marc’s Checklist
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Market agrees with the Model Market agrees with the Model
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Market agrees with the Model
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• Rela7ve Strength compares a stock to market over past 26 weeks • Displayed as a Red/Green indicator • Measures Persistency of stock’s performance rela7ve to S&P 500 • Stands alone as a bullish or bearish indicator • Ins7tu7onal investors are measured against a benchmark • Superior returns come from stocks that outperform the market
The Dynamic Duo Chaikin Power Gauge Ra7ng and Chaikin Rela7ve Strength
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Market agrees with the Model Market agrees with the Model Market agrees with the Model
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The Key to Making Money in all Markets SpoGng Personality Changes
• When Rela7ve Strength changes color = personality change • Powerful when it confirms the Power Gauge ra7ng
• Because the Market is agreeing with the Model
• Chaikin Money Flow can confirm change of personality
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Apple: Ripe, Roeen or Reversal -‐ 2013?
Bearish Personality Change
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Bearish Personality Change
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Play Good Defense Turn Lemons into Lemonade
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Market agrees with the Model
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Market agrees with the Model
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Bearish Personality Change Market agrees with the Model
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From Here to Hawaii “I followed your AMZN trade …. Great trade!! Profit covered next year's total cost of our two
months in Hawaii, aDer taxes! My wife thanks you and I thank you. ― RW 4/17/14
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Play Offense Well: What to Buy
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Market agrees with the Model
Price Accelera5on
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Price Accelera5on
Market agrees with the Model
Price Accelera5on
Market agrees with the Model
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Market agrees with the Model Market agrees with the Model
Price Accelera5on
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Chaikin Buy/Sell Signals
Buy Signals Sell Signals
• Oversold Buy • Momentum Breakout • Reversal Buy • Money Flow Buy • Rela7ve Strength Buy • Rel. Strength Breakout Buy
• Overbought Sell • Momentum Breakdown • Reversal Sell • Money Flow Sell • Rela7ve Strength Sell • Rel. Strength Breakdown Sell
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Sector / Industry Group Strength = Tailwind
• Strong Groups Put Wind at Your Back = Long Profits • Weak Groups and Sectors = Short Opportuni7es
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Sector ETFs Sorted by Power Gauge
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XLV – Health Care Outperforming
Nega5ve Personality Change
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Price Accelera5on aTer Bullish Earnings Surprise
Market agrees with the Model
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XLE – Energy Underperforming
Nega5ve Personality Change
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Market agrees with the Model
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John Schlitz’s Checklist
• Look at 5 year chart to see the bigger picture • Check rela7ve strength of stock to the market
• Evaluate buy/sell signals in rela7on to price ac7on • Evaluate price ac7on in rela7on to technical indicators
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Market agrees with the Model
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Winning Earnings Plays – Long and Short
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Market agrees with the Model
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Market agrees with the Model
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Market agrees with the Model Market agrees with the Model
Price Accelera5on aTer Bullish Earnings Surprise Price Accelera5on aTer Bullish Earnings Surprise
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Tes7monial
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SWKS before earnings the first week I subscribed to the service. That trade paid for my en7re yearly subscrip7on. Thanks and I want to compliment you on your user friendly App.”
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Tes7monial
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‒ John V, Chaikin Analy5cs Subscriber
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© 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Be the Smart Money – Don’t Wait for Wall Street
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Start inves5ng smarter now -‐ get $600 in added value ·∙ $400 off an annual subscrip5on to Chaikin Analy5cs ·∙ Subscrip5on to Chaikin Power Suite – worth $190/year
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Chaikin Bullish Stock of the Week – Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) – 47.23 Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) has a very bullish Chaikin Power Gauge rating and reports its 3rd quarter earnings after the close on Thursday July 17th
The stock is coming off an oversold and recently triggered a Money Flow buy signal in Chaikin Analytics. SWKS has the perfect trifecta of a very bullish Chaikin Power Gauge rating, strong relative strength to the market and very bullish Chaikin Money Flow. Skyworks has averaged a 6.18% gain the day after reporting earnings over the past 3 years. Buy SWKS ahead of Thursday’s earnings report.
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Tes7monial
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RM, 8/19/14 Chaikin Analy7cs Subscriber
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