How to cook with HEAT · 2020-02-17 · mode share of Copenhagen? ... • Investment estimate in...

HEAT project is co-financed from the Interreg Central Baltic Programme (2014-2020)

How to cook with HEATA recipe for cycling advocacy in 6 fairly easy steps

Emilia SternbergCykelfrämjandet

HEAT case

Cycling’s Health Benefits in Stockholm County 2030

Public health benefits from current levels of cycling in Stockholm County compared to reaching the 20

percent mode share goal by 2030

A collaboration with Region Stockholm’s Bicycling Office

Project partners:Finland

• City of Turku• Council of Southwest Finland – Service Centre for Sustainable

Development and Energy of Southwest Finland (VALONIA)• Turku University of Applied Sciences

Latvia• Jurmala City Council

Estonia• Institute of Baltic Studies• Tartu City Government

Sweden• Cykelfrämjandet, Sverige

HEAT-project goal

to contribute to the planning of healthier, more active and inclusive urban areas in Central Baltic region, in which biking is a safe, popular, and acceptable mode of transport.

HEAT PARTICIPATORY URBAN PLANNING FOR HEALTHIER URBAN COMMUNITIES

Co-financed by the Interreg Central Baltic Programme (2014-2020), from the European Regional Development fund

#biking4health www.heatproject.eu #planningtogether

• HEAT - An online tool developed by the WHO on best availableevidence and research

• Based on a question of how to integrate health into transport planning?

• Designed to enable users without expertise in impact assessment to conduct economic assessments of the health impacts of walking or cycling.

• Can be used to highlight value and impact of cycling contra cost of investment in infrastructure

http://www.heatwalkingcycling.org

How do we show the health impactand value of cycling?


• Current (or past) situation:

– What is the value of today’s levels of walking and/or cycling?

• Changes over time/ before-and-after/ scenario A vs B

– What would the value of cycling be if cycling be if we had the mode share of Copenhagen?

• Evaluating new or existing projects

– What is the health value of this infrastructure project contra the investment costs?

Which types of questions can it answer?

If x people regularly walk or cycle an amount of y, what is the economic value of the health benefits that occur as a result of the reduction in mortality due to their physical activity?


• 1-2 cases for assessment

• 1 or more questions for assessment

• 1 part population data

• 1 part cycling (or walking) quantity data

Ingredients


• Active travel modes

Walking; and/or

Cycling

• Geographic scale

O Country;

O City; or

O Sub-city

• Comparison

O single case

O two cases

• Year of reference case

• Time scale (e.g. 10 years)

• Impacts

physical activity,

air pollution (AP),

crash risk; and/or

carbon emissions

— Motorized modes

O No data (default values)

O Basic categories

O Refined categories

Step 1 – begin by deciding your case and question for assessment


• What is the socio-economic value of current levels of cycling in Stockholm County?

• What would the socio-economic value of cycling be if the goal of20 procent mode share is reached by 2030?

• How does the socio-economic value of the increase in mode sharefor cycling compare to the investment costs laid out in the regional cycling plan?

Cycling’s Health Benefits in Stockholm County 2030Assessment questions


• Active travel modes Walking; and/or Cycling

• Geographic scale O Country;O City; orO Sub-city

• Comparison O single caseO two cases

• Year of reference case

• Time scale (e.g. 10 years)

• Impacts physical activity, air pollution (AP), crash risk; and/or carbon emissions

— Motorized modes

O No data (default values)

O Basic categories O Refined

categories

1

Step 1 contd. Defining you case and what to assess

2019 / 2030

Stockholm, Sweden

Stockholm: Two ”snapshots” – cycling 2019 and 2030


• For HEAT you need to know how many people are doing the physical activity and whatamount of it they are doing.

• Remember, HEAT answers the question –

If x people regularly walk or cycle an amount of y, what is the economic value of the health benefits that occur as a result of the reduction in mortality due to their physical activity?

• What data on cycling and population is available to you for your case? (Data availability might determine your case)

– Amount of physical activity can be in Minutes, hours, km, number of trips or mode share?

– And can be from a general population or a cyclist specific population

– HEAT’s cycling population age range is 20-64 year olds (no kids or elderly!)

Step 2. Mix in your data!


For the Stockholm assessment –1 part population & 1 part cycling x2 (2019 and 2030)

• Amount of cycling per person/day 2019 and 2030?2019: cycling mode share of 7 procent = 0,89 km per person/day (general population)

2030: cycling mode share 20 procent = 2,54 km per person/day (general population)

Sources: Regional travel habits survey 2015 och Regional cycle plan 2014

• How big is the group that is cycling 2019 and 2030?2019: 1 408 069 (SCB, 2018)

2030: 1 613 746 (County prognosis 2018-2060)

Step 2 contd. Mix in your data!


Cycling data

• UnitO Duration (min, h); OR

O Distance (km); OR

O Trips

– Amount (per person per day) min, km, trips

– Population type (from which cycling data was derived)

O General population

O Cyclist

• Population age range and size people

0.89 (2019)

1 408 069 (2019)

Step 2 contd. Mix in your data!

2.54 (2030)

1 613 746 (2030)


Depending on the type of assessment: • proportion excluded (two case assessments)

• temporal and spatial adjustment

• uptake time for active travel demand (two case assessments)

• proportion of new trips (two case assessments, carbon)

• proportion of reassigned trips (versus new trips, two case

• assessments,

• sub-city level)

• proportion of shifted trips (single case assessments, carbon)

• proportion in traffic (versus away from traffic, AP)

• proportion for transport (versus recreation, AP carbon)

• traffic conditions (carbon)

• change in crash risk (two case assessments, crashes)

• substitution of physical activity (two case assessments, physical activity)

Step 3. Adjust your data

DEFAULT VALUES• Based on best available

evidence and research• ”assured” by the WHO• We don’t ”know better (or worse)”• = No adjustments in our cases


Step 4. Check your parameters

Mortality in Stockholm County for 20-64 year olds (per 100 000):

2019: 143,175 (SCB, 2018)2030: 123,935 (County prognosis 2018-2060)

Calculation: Mortality / 100 000 = (Number of deaths in group /number of people in the group) * 100 000


• Premature deaths prevented in Stockholm thanks to cycling:2019: 532030: 149 (goal in cycling plan)

• Socio-economic value of cycling in Stockholm:2019: 2,2 billion SEK (211 000 000 EUR)2030: 6,2 billion SEK (596 000 000 EUR ) (goal in cycling plan)

• Investment estimate in Stockholm regional cycling plan:

2,3 billion SEK (260 000 000 EUR)

Step 5. Get your HEAT results

Premature deaths prevented and socio-economic value thereof


Step 5 contd. Get your HEAT results

Public health effects of cycling in Stockholm County (premature deaths prevented per year)

Current levels Scenario 2030

Physical activity 54 154

Air pollution -1 -3

Crash risk -0,5 -2

Total (premature deaths prevented / yr)

53 (rounded to closest integer)

149


• These results (for the Stockholm case) are per year – can be multiplied over time with the HEAT tool (with discounting)

• Assessment only takes into account mortality, not morbidity (disease)– Cycling’s positive impact on risk of coronary disease, diabetes type 2,

obesity, and some types of cancer not taken into account– Meaning the calculation is in the low-range, impact and benefits in

actuality higher

• Other cycling benefits not taken into account:– Decreased emissions and air pollution, less congestion and noise, social

benefits, travel time benefits, and a living and active city

Important keep in mind!


Step 6. Share with others!Workshops with traffic planners and media attention to show the impact and value of cycling!


Other examples of ways to cook with HEAT

• Can be used by government officials, but also academics and NGOs – Transparent assumptions and helpful online guide

– Don’t need to be an impact assessment expert

– Finding the right data and understanding the adjustments/parameters canbe tricky!

• Can be used for example in:– Cycle policy, cost-benefit analysis and planning of cycle infrastructure

– Cycling advocacy – getting attention for the health impact of cycling

– Lobbying for cycling, i.e. funds for cycling infrastructure

– Research

Tack!Project contact:

Emilia Sternberg

Project coordinator

Cykelfrämjandet

[email protected]


How to cook with HEAT · 2020-02-17 · mode share of Copenhagen? ... • Investment estimate in...

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