Hot Stuff is Global Climate Change Real

8/7/2019 Hot Stuff is Global Climate Change Real

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Renewable EnergyRenewable Energy

WorkshopWorkshop

What’s Driving the ShiftWhat’s Driving the Shift

ToTo

Renewable Energy ?Renewable Energy ?SHIBA SANKAR BEHERA

RAVENSHAW MANAGEMENT CENTRE, CUTTACK



The Global PictureThe Global Picture



“Everything is Connected to“Everything is Connected to

Everything Else” Everything Else”

Sustainability

Water

Population

Poverty-Wealth

Energy

Climate Change

Human Health

Biodiversity

Land - Food

Business

GlobalizationTechnology



It is a Complex PuzzleIt is a Complex Puzzle

Energy

(Heat, Light, Travel)

Water

(Life, Fun, Waste) Land(Food, Factories, Families)

Population Increase

Demands on Ecosystem

Water Pollution/Depletion

Energy Depletion &

Air Pollution

Land Abuse/Fragmentation

Biodiversity Shift

Overuse & AbuseLaw of the Commons

FalseSense of Security !

Climate

Change

“A Stressor”

Bio-Trend S stems In



Law of the CommonsLaw of the Commons SystemSystem

StressStress

LimitedLimitedResourcesResources

EnergyEnergy WaterWater

FoodFood HabitatHabitat

Who falls off the Train ?

Planetary SystemPlanetary System

Those Who Fail to Seek and

Capture Opportunities throughContinuous Learningo-Trend S stems Inc.



now e ge an angenow e ge an angeEverything!!Everything!!

The Benefit to Companies and Communities+

Being well prepared and positively positioned

to change threats to opportunities….

Don’t Blink Opportunity Moves Quickly !

Bio-Trend Systems In



Global ThreatsGlobal Threats

• Climate Change

• Population

• Energy Status



Climate

Change



Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate Change++++++++++++++++++++

“A Legacy of Progress”“A Legacy of Progress”

“During the past 20,000 years, a 5° to 6°C change intemperature dramatically altered regional

distribution of forests, prairies and wetlands….

The past 150 years has witnessed the 1st , and nowthe 2nd, Industrial Revolution

During the next 75 years, or less, we may be facingtemperature increases in Ontario that equal or

eclipse these levels – our thirst for the fossil fuelsand what they provide is contributing significantly

to this situation.



CO2 Rise & Temperature -CO2 Rise & Temperature -

20002000CO 2 Temperature oC

60 ppm increaseIn 50 Years 1.8

oF increase

globally

A Disconcerting Trend Rate of CO2 Increase

1950 – 1990 1.0 ppm 1990 – 2000 1.8 ppm 2001 – 2005 3.0 ppm



Climate in OntarioClimate in Ontario

In Just 35 – 55 Years ?!In Just 35 – 55 Years ?!

7.2 – 9.0°F

5.4 – 7.2°F

3.6 – 5.4°F

Boreal

Great Lakes

St. Lawrence

Oak-Hickory

or Prairie ?



Implications of SystemImplications of System

StressStress

Climate-induced changes, particularly over ashort time frame, represent a significant stress– one that is likely to be expressed by

significant mortality of species incapable of relatively rapid adjustment

Stress pre-disposes the terrestrial systems toattack by insects, disease and/or fire.



,, ,,a System is More Vulnerable to Subsequenta System is More Vulnerable to Subsequent

StressStressDrought

Insect Attack

Fungus Attack

Death



Population



PopulationPopulation

Additional Tid-BitsAdditional Tid-Bits

Even if birth rate declines thenet affect is upward due to:

• life expectancy today’s baby girl

• “fix your body” technology

China + India = 2,500,000,000Growth = 1.2% / year. So?

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1975 2000 2050

Population - Billions

bal Population doubled in 40 years,will it double again by 2050 ??

?

Impact on Finite Resources

“Energy”o-Trend S stems Inc.



Energy



World Oil Production 1930-2050World Oil Production 1930-2050

Cheap Oil is Going…GoingCheap Oil is Going…Going….….

10

20

70

60

50

40

30

1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Millio ns o f Ba rre ls

/ Da y

Mean-Case Scenario

U.S.

Peaked

Rate of decline

is based on

past post-peak declines

t include: shale oil , tar sands, extra heavy oils, deep ocean drilling, et

Rate of increase istied to population

and industrialization

Kuwait

To Peak

Global

Peak



20 4060 80 100

Absolute maximu

before oil runs ouBest curren

guess

Range of

likelihoo

ears Remainin

Oil

Remainin

How Long Will it Really Last ??

Population Since Oil 2 to 6 billion

“1

st

Trillion Gone”

Population Next 40 Years 6 to 9 billion

“ Remaining Trillion ???”

Plus

Industrialization

of China, India

& Others

Peak Time

Not include: shale oil , tar sands, extra heavy oils, deep ocean drilling etc.

hS I Th P t O ?



So, Is The Party Over ?So, Is The Party Over ?

y father rode a camel I drove a car

My son fly’s a jet grandson will ride a camel

Ole Saudi Proverb



Energy ChoicesEnergy Choices

Renewal

Energy

7%

Petroleum

30%

Nuclear Electric

Power

8%

Coal

23%

Natural Gas

24%

Solar 1%

Wood 38%

Alcohol Fuel 1%

Waste 8%

Wind 1%

Conventional

Hydroelectric

46%

Geothermal 2%

DirtyStuff

DepletionImminent

$ &

Fear

Global

“Cheap”Peak isClose

?

20% of Canada’s Natural Gas is

used to extract tar sands oil !!

5 Million Chinese work in 25,000

coal mines 70% of the Energy

plus 25% of Alberta’s

fresh water supply !

What About

The

Tar Sands ?

Renewable Energy in OntarioRenewable Energy in Ontario



Renewable Energy in OntarioRenewable Energy in Ontario“Growing the Percent of Renewable“Growing the Percent of Renewable

(& Recyclable) Options” (& Recyclable) Options”

Geothermal – Heat

Tide & Wave

Biomass/Biogas - Heat

Micro-Hydro

Biomass/Biogas - Electric

Solar Heat

Solar Electric

Wind Off-Shore

Wind On-Shore

Biofuels

Geothermal – Electric

Ene rg y Re q u ire d

2005 2020

What’s the Strategy ??

Bio-Trend S stems In



So, areSo, are ““WE”WE” Ready toReady to

Change ?Change ?



Top Oil ConsumersTop Oil Consumers

“ Where Does Canada Sit” ?“ Where Does Canada Sit” ?

0

10

20

30

US China Japan Russia India Brazil Canada

2002 2025

But! Per capita Canada is 3rd

Millio ns

o f Ba rre ls

p e r Da y

North American Culture ForNorth American Culture For



North American Culture ForNorth American Culture For

EnergyEnergy Not Conservation Friendly Motivated to Change…???

More Efficient

Urban

Sprawl

Greener

Less Dispersed

Bio-Trend Systems Inc.

W N t Af id f Ch llWe are Not Afraid of a Challenge



We are Not Afraid of a ChallengeWe are Not Afraid of a Challenge

andand

We are Creative !!!We are Creative !!!

There’s Plenty of Oil !

What Oil Peak ?The North American

Compromise

Bio-Trend Systems In



Making it WorkMaking it Work

Expert Team TeamPreparedness

TeamDue Diligence

Business Development

Business ManagementProject Financing

Markets & Marketing

Biomass Procurement

Permitting/Regulations

Mechanical Engineer

Chemical Engineer Biology/Ecology

Etc……

Assets & Infrastructure

Taxes and IncentivesMunicipal Zoning

Relevant Resources

NIMBY Concerns

Sector-Specific Attributes• Bio-Energy

• RemediationLiaison Services

Etc……..

You are the Local Expert

Due Diligence• Business Acumen• Markets

• Supply• Technology/Product• Financing

• Competitors• Credibility & Trust

Etc……

Prepare – Position – PromoteBio-Trend S stems I



Parting MessagesParting Messages

Energy demand will trump supply – Prices will riseEnergy demand will trump supply – Prices will rise

Environmental consequences of Fossil Fuels areEnvironmental consequences of Fossil Fuels areunacceptableunacceptable

Threats can be Opportunities – SME’s can Thrive andThreats can be Opportunities – SME’s can Thrive andhelp mitigate price increaseshelp mitigate price increases

Learning Teams (Communities of Practice) are EssentialLearning Teams (Communities of Practice) are Essentialfor residential/farm cooperatives, companies andfor residential/farm cooperatives, companies and

communitiescommunities

Conserve 1Conserve 1stst - You Get the Biggest Bank for Your Buck- You Get the Biggest Bank for Your Buck



Parting MessagesParting Messages

Explore cooperative venturesExplore cooperative ventures Optimize YourOptimize Your

Energy SolutionEnergy Solution

Employ Integrated Renewable Energy SystemsEmploy Integrated Renewable Energy Systems

Focus on Renewables and RecyclablesFocus on Renewables and Recyclables

Accommodate and Enable Small BusinessAccommodate and Enable Small Business

DevelopmentDevelopment

Be progressive, patient, practical and persistentBe progressive, patient, practical and persistent

A N D h C !A N D h C !



A New Day has Come !A New Day has Come !

Selected Readings

. Boom, Bust & Echo. David K Foot

. Weather Makers. Tim Flannery

. ZOOM. Iain Carson & V.V. Vaitheeswaran

. A Thousand Barrels A Second. PeterTertzakian

5. Why Mexicans Don’t Drink Molson.

Andrea Mandel-Cambell

6. Fueling the Future. Heintzman

7. The Long Emergency. James Kunstler

8. Dry Spring. Chris Wood

Hot Stuff is Global Climate Change Real

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