Home Price Monitor: April 2012

8/2/2019 Home Price Monitor: April 2012

1/13

Home Price Monitor

April 2012

National Association of REALTORS

Research Division

Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure


2/13

Highlights

On a month-to-month basis most home price measures showed growth inFebruary, in a typical seasonal fashion. The exceptions were Case-Shillers10- and 20-city indexes and CoreLogics HPI which showed small declines.Early measures for March show a more positive month to month trend.

More encouragingly, on a year over year basis, price declines were generallysmaller across measures in February, and FHFA data showed slight price

growth over the year. Early data for March suggest a strengthening of theyear over year growth trend.

New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels ofconstruction and purchase activity and presently show strong growth.

Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, comprised 29percent of sales in a recent survey of Realtorsdown from 40 percenta year ago and on the lower end of the range of what has been typicalin recent months. This is a positive sign for prices.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/


3/13

Outlook

From a broad perspective, many of the same stabilizing trends continue todrive the outlook. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and strong

foot traffic should help to support prices, though buyers searching for the

right home may have fewer options from which to choose.

Very limited new construction means that buyers initially searching for a new

home may find more selection among existing homes despite tight inventory.

Housing permits appear to be picking up, but are still at low levels and

construction takes time, so new supply is not yet on the market.

Affordability remains high and jobs figures continue to be a positive sign. An

improving economy coupled with affordability could provide a needed jolt to

primary residence sales and some of this jolt has been seen as sales have

improved dramatically over one year ago.

Rising apartment rents may make a home purchase the more affordable option

for some households, adding to the positive trend for sales and prices.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/employment/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/rents/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/rents/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/employment/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/


4/13

Home Prices

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

240.00

260.00

280.00

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

Feb-02

M

ay-02

Aug-02

N

ov-02

Feb-03

M

ay-03

Aug-03

N

ov-03

Feb-04

M

ay-04

Aug-04

N

ov-04

Feb-05

M

ay-05

Aug-05

N

ov-05

Feb-06

M

ay-06

Aug-06

N

ov-06

Feb-07

M

ay-07

Aug-07

N

ov-07

Feb-08

M

ay-08

Aug-08

N

ov-08

Feb-09

M

ay-09

Aug-09

N

ov-09

Feb-10

M

ay-10

Aug-10

N

ov-10

Feb-11

M

ay-11

Aug-11

N

ov-11

Feb-12

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER


5/13

Home Price Data Year over Year Change


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fe

b-02

Ma

y-02

Au

g-02

No

v-02

Fe

b-03

Ma

y-03

Au

g-03

No

v-03

Fe

b-04

Ma

y-04

Au

g-04

No

v-04

Fe

b-05

Ma

y-05

Au

g-05

No

v-05

Fe

b-06

Ma

y-06

Au

g-06

No

v-06

Fe

b-07

Ma

y-07

Au

g-07

No

v-07

Fe

b-08

Ma

y-08

Au

g-08

No

v-08

Fe

b-09

Ma

y-09

Au

g-09

No

v-09

Fe

b-10

Ma

y-10

Au

g-10

No

v-10

Fe

b-11

Ma

y-11

Au

g-11

No

v-11

Fe

b-12

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)


6/13

Home Price Changes

*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for

Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media

regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with

caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a

measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.

Data Series

Feb-12

Monthly

Change*

Feb-12

Annual

Change*

Mar-12

Monthly

Change*

Mar-12

Annual

Change*

Next

Release

Date

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes 0.6% -0.3% 5.3% 2.5% 22-May

NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes 1.0% -0.5% 4.8% 1.9% 22-May

FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only 0.6% 0.4% -- -- 23-MayS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -0.8% -3.5% -- -- 29-May

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -0.8% -3.6% -- -- 29-May

CoreLogic National HPI -0.8% -2.0% -- -- Mid-May

CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 0.7% -0.8% -- -- Mid-May

New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price 8.7% 7.6% -1.0% 6.3% 23-May



7/13

Spread of Existing Home Price ChangesYear over Year

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00


8/13

Supply and Demand Factors Inventory

Sources: NAR

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA)

NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)

NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes,

United States (Months) (right axis)

NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale atEOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)


9/13

SupplyNew Housing Starts and Permits

Sources: Census

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)


10/13

Underlying Demand Job Growth and Hires

Sources: BLS

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)


11/13

Potential Job Growth Openings

Sources: BLS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous)


12/13

Housing Affordability

Sources: NAR

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%)

NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States

NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite

(right axis)

NAR Payment as Percent of Income(left axis)


13/13

About the Price Data Series

Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data Series

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes

NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes

FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only

Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase &

refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10

CoreLogic National HPI

CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded

New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction

Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor board

data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops

WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value;quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and

composites are 3 month moving averages

Weighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County

recorder data


Home Price Monitor: April 2012

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